DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

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dynastyninja
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 am

DK has been impressive, but I definitely don't understand why we're even mentioning Julio in a DK thread. Different players entirely.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Blueboy » Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:30 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 am
DK has been impressive, but I definitely don't understand why we're even mentioning Julio in a DK thread. Different players entirely.
Yeah, their games have very little similarity. I guess it's just the comp for big WRs. If we're reaching for a HOF comparison, he's much more similar to Megatron imo.

12-team SF, PPR, TE Premium, 0.25 points per carry
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
QB: Murray, Mayfield, Haskins
RB: Guice, Penny, Love, J. Howard, Snell
WR: DJM, Metcalf, Hollywood, M. Williams, Isabella, T. Smith
TE: OJH, Hockenson, Hurst

2020 picks: 1.03, 1.07, 2.03, 3.06

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby hockeyBjj » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:35 am

I got turned down no counter for the 1.05 in the "loaded" 2020 draft when I tried to get Metcalf, for reference there
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE, (a TE2 can flex for RB3 or WR3), 1D, 1K
2019: 5th place :wall:
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson
RB: Saquan Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram,Devonta Freeman, Damien Williams, Hyde
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju Smith Jarvis Landry, T Boyd, G Tate, D Slayton, A Miller, T
TE: George Kittle, Rudolph, V McDonald, Dwelley
D/K: Vikings, Patriots, Titans, Jax Siebert CLE
Taxi- D Henderson, A Mattison, B Snell
picks- 2020 1.05, 2.06, 4.06, 5.06 5 2021- 1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team ppr, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1WR/RB/TE, 1 RB/TE
Threepeat Champs 8-)
QB: Wilson, Cousins, Haskins
RB: CMC, D Cook, Kamara, D Henry, Gurley, T Cohen, Yeldon, P Barber, M Brown, Riddick,
WR:Hopkins, Diggs, Golloday, Edelman, Arob, Fuller, Westbrook, Hurns, Wright, Dorsett, Higgins, T Patrick, M Harris
TE: Kelce, Andrews, Dissly, Legget
Taxi-
picks- 2020- 0 2021- 3,4,5

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:58 am

Blueboy wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:30 am
dynastyninja wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 am
DK has been impressive, but I definitely don't understand why we're even mentioning Julio in a DK thread. Different players entirely.
Yeah, their games have very little similarity. I guess it's just the comp for big WRs. If we're reaching for a HOF comparison, he's much more similar to Megatron imo.
Comping players has more to do with production potential but one should consider where players were at points in time.

The knock on Julio back in the day was route running, too much body catching, focus on easy catches was a mark against him. Obviously he developed.

DK's major issue was route running and health.

If one wants to look at similar metrics.
Size 6'3" both
Hand size DK 9 7/8 Julio 9 3/4
Arm Length DK 34 7/8 Julio 33 3/4
Weight DK 228 Julio 220
Speed DK 4.33 Julio 4.39
Vertical DK 40.5 Julio 38.5
Strength DK 27 reps Julio 17 reps
Broad explosion DK 134 Julio 135.5
20 yard shuttle quickness DK 4.5 Julio 4.25
3 cone DK 7.33 Julio 6.66

Key similarities: Both destroyed press coverage, have a huge catch radius, and demonstrated superior back shoulder fade catch ability which were actually the most important aspects of these two players because it makes them so hard to cover the entire game.

Julio had a prolific college career and DK had health question marks. Julio was obviously more advanced coming out of college and has only gotten better. DK's breakout season was as a rookie in the NFL

1st year as pro's

Julio 54 receptions 959 8 TD's 13 Games
DK 58 receptions 900 7 TD's (still playing)
Calvin 48 receptions 756 4 TD's.

It's easy to say there is little similarity in Julio and DK's game but that doesn't make it so. Julio was a deeper threat than DK his rookie year.

No telling if DK will develop to Julio or Calvin's status but his rookie year stacks up well especially given his experience coming into the league was less given health issues in college.

Athletically, DK is easily on their level. My comparisons of players are based on potential at similar points in time. This is why I stated DK has a long way to go be in Julio's class but the potential to be great is obviously there.

Julio was my highest rated WR ever studied based on how I look at players. DK was also an extremely highly rated player based on what I look at but his body of work was less which is certainly a reason so many were concerned about him which is/was a valid concern.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby hoos89 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:09 am

hockeyBjj wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:35 am
I got turned down no counter for the 1.05 in the "loaded" 2020 draft when I tried to get Metcalf, for reference there
Oh man...I think I'd still take one of Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Jeudy, Lamb or whatever RB KC drafts over Metcalf.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13, 2.03, 2.11, 2.12, 3.05, 3.11, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.10, 2.11

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Blueboy » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:59 am

Ice wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:58 am
Blueboy wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:30 am
dynastyninja wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 am
DK has been impressive, but I definitely don't understand why we're even mentioning Julio in a DK thread. Different players entirely.
Yeah, their games have very little similarity. I guess it's just the comp for big WRs. If we're reaching for a HOF comparison, he's much more similar to Megatron imo.
Comping players has more to do with production potential but one should consider where players were at points in time.

It's easy to say there is little similarity in Julio and DK's game but that doesn't make it so. Julio was a deeper threat than DK his rookie year.
Oh, if you're talking just about Julio as a rookie then I agree with you. My post was with regards to style of play for Julio as he currently is, as I assumed we were talking career trajectory. I don't see the potential for body control or nuance in Metcalf that Julio boasts.

Let me also clarify that none of this is mean to be a knock against DK. Calvin Johnson is an equally high accolade to be compared to. IMO Metcalf's height/weight (6-foot-4, 229-pounds) actually align a bit closer to Calvin, but that's just splitting hairs. Athletically he basically falls right between Julio and Megatron, funnily enough.

I think our misalignment is just that you're talking about rookie seasons and I'm thinking of projecting how he'll develop over a career.

12-team SF, PPR, TE Premium, 0.25 points per carry
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
QB: Murray, Mayfield, Haskins
RB: Guice, Penny, Love, J. Howard, Snell
WR: DJM, Metcalf, Hollywood, M. Williams, Isabella, T. Smith
TE: OJH, Hockenson, Hurst

2020 picks: 1.03, 1.07, 2.03, 3.06

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:35 pm

@Ice. Athletically, DK is on Julio's level for speed and strength, not quickness and change of direction. The 3 cone difference is pretty telling there. You say it's irrelevant for a big X receiver, but that's not completely true. It doesn't take a professional scout to see Julio was and is still IMO, the quicker, more agile player, when changing direction, cutting etc. Calvin never had that either, yet he still produced insane numbers, on a more limited route tree, so it doesn't mean a WR needs that 3 cone time to be successful, just that if they have one like Julio's, compared to DK's, they are more likely to do a larger variety of things well. Julio can run a more advanced route tree than DK, and Calvin successfully, because beyond speed and strength, he was a much more agile, nimble athlete than the other 2.

If talking about DK's production vs Julio, the main issue is going to be targets. He simply won't get them any time in the near future, to the level needed to rival any of Julio's numbers in his prime. Perhaps Carroll retires, and they shift to a new philosophy where they throw more, and target one player a lot, but in the current paradigm of Seattle Football, DK reaching numbers rivalling Julio, or Calvin for that matter, isn't going to happen.

Comparing rookie numbers is fair to a point but the NFL has changed into a much more WR friendly environment compared to when Calvin, or even Julio started playing. I still really like DK, and think his ceiling is a Mike Evans type of player, IF he can get the targets. That's my biggest issue right now, is that I think he's going to be capped at about 120 maximum, for the next several years. Even with that, 75-80 catches, well over 1000 yards, and double digit TD's should be attainable.
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:23 pm

Ice wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:58 am
No telling if DK will develop to Julio or Calvin's status but his rookie year stacks up well especially given his experience coming into the league was less given health issues in college.
I'll save you some time, he won't. I don't mean to be snarky, but the overwhelming likelihood is that it's not going to happen. He's not on their level (with a <5% chance of ever getting there).

I like DK. I'd like to acquire DK. But, he's not going to be a HOF receiver like Calvin and Julio. I didn't expect you to double down here and act like there's a realistic chance he will be, so your response was surprising to me. Let's temper the expectations here. Optimism is fine, especially if you've been banging the drum for him for a while, but let's be realistic here. He has a good combination of talent and situation that could make him a very good receiver for quite a few years.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:58 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:23 pm
Ice wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:58 am
No telling if DK will develop to Julio or Calvin's status but his rookie year stacks up well especially given his experience coming into the league was less given health issues in college.
I'll save you some time, he won't. I don't mean to be snarky, but the overwhelming likelihood is that it's not going to happen. He's not on their level (with a <5% chance of ever getting there).

I like DK. I'd like to acquire DK. But, he's not going to be a HOF receiver like Calvin and Julio. I didn't expect you to double down here and act like there's a realistic chance he will be, so your response was surprising to me. Let's temper the expectations here. Optimism is fine, especially if you've been banging the drum for him for a while, but let's be realistic here. He has a good combination of talent and situation that could make him a very good receiver for quite a few years.
No worries you do snarky better than most. :D

Obviously the odds of being a HOF player is rare. The reality though in looking at players and then acquiring them for Fantasy football is all about potential. 1st year was way better than expected. Long term success depends on a multitude of factors from team, talent, desire, and health.

It is easy to say a player can't or won't do something after a year. What we can all see is his 1st year was favorable when compared to a couple of greats.

The difference here is most likely the understanding he has potential to be great. None of us will really know until much time passes if he is in fact going to be great.

Once we see his third year production we will have a better idea and if he continues to track and that next contract will give an idea as to what the NFL really thinks once his production numbers over time are in. So far Seattle loves this player and his work ethic.

Too early to really plant a definitive flag so all that's there today is the potential to develop into greatness or mediocrity depending on ones perspective.

Not a player I would be selling in fantasy today unless the payback is substantial.


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