DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

[Vcize]

DK reminds me too much of a freakier athletic version of Kevin White (who I fell hard for). Limited route tree, limited production, fits height weight speed criteria to make you fall in love with the potential.

We play fantasy football for the production of the players and frankly DK hasn't produced to the level of his athleticism really ever. I don't want to hear the extrapolate his stats argument because we can do that with anybody and make them look rosy. Extrapolated stats never won any fantasy matchups

We play fantasy football for NFL production, not college production. If you're looking for comps in college including both skills and production he's much more similar to Josh Gordon than Kevin White.

And extrapolated stats won people plenty of fantasy matchups when they took David Johnson early in 2017 after extrapolating out the end of his 2016 season. More are hoping it will win them matchups next year with Dalvin Cook who's fantasy hopes are still based off extrapolating his first 4 games as a rookie.

[Cameron Giles]

I’m not sure if he’s the 1.01 or not, but the whole “route running” knock is silly. He’s 21 years old. He can learn how to run routes. You can’t teach these smaller, older, slower, more polished route-runners how to be an athletic freak like Metcalf.

It's not easy to become a really good route runner. Some people don't have the natural ability to do it and some people don't have the football IQ and work ethic to pick up on it.

[Mjvb5]

I’m not sure if he’s the 1.01 or not, but the whole “route running” knock is silly. He’s 21 years old. He can learn how to run routes. You can’t teach these smaller, older, slower, more polished route-runners how to be an athletic freak like Metcalf.

What you do is teach them to take advantage of there route running and finesse, see Jarvis Landry, Cooper Kupp, AB

[KingsKing]

Landing spots change things , I will completely be avoiding the wr that lands in Baltimore unless the value is too good to pass up like Harry slips to 1.5-1.6 and he lands in Baltimore for example . But as of right now DK isn’t a top 5 player for me.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Metcalf isn't in my top 5 at wr.

So again, the point of this thread was predicting his ADP, not saying he deserves it. I’m not a huge fan of his. Having said that, having him outside your top 5 WRs seems like a stretch, I’m really curious which 5 wideouts in this class you prefer to Metcalf.

As for the Kevin White comps, it misses the point about why Kevin White was a bad prospect. Kevin White was a bad prospect because he had no real success until he was a 22 year old playing in the big 12. He was drafted at 23. Metcalf just turned 21. He broke out as a redshirt freshman. I agree Metcalf is risky because of the injury history and the limited tape/sample size, but he was at least able to produce before he was older than everybody lining up across from him.

[KingsKing]

Metcalf isn't in my top 5 at wr.

So again, the point of this thread was predicting his ADP, not saying he deserves it. I’m not a huge fan of his. Having said that, having him outside your top 5 WRs seems like a stretch, I’m really curious which 5 wideouts in this class you prefer to Metcalf.

As for the Kevin White comps, it misses the point about why Kevin White was a bad prospect. Kevin White was a bad prospect because he had no real success until he was a 22 year old playing in the big 12. He was drafted at 23. Metcalf just turned 21. He broke out as a redshirt freshman. I agree Metcalf is risky because of the injury history and the limited tape/sample size, but he was at least able to produce before he was older than everybody lining up across from him.

Not sure I would consider 39/640/7 over 12 games breaking out

[FantasyFreak]

Metcalf isn't in my top 5 at wr.

So again, the point of this thread was predicting his ADP, not saying he deserves it. I’m not a huge fan of his. Having said that, having him outside your top 5 WRs seems like a stretch, I’m really curious which 5 wideouts in this class you prefer to Metcalf.

As for the Kevin White comps, it misses the point about why Kevin White was a bad prospect. Kevin White was a bad prospect because he had no real success until he was a 22 year old playing in the big 12. He was drafted at 23. Metcalf just turned 21. He broke out as a redshirt freshman. I agree Metcalf is risky because of the injury history and the limited tape/sample size, but he was at least able to produce before he was older than everybody lining up across from him.

Not sure I would consider 39/640/7 over 12 games breaking out

Well, it is. Metrics based algorithm to do with percentage of total offense, I believe. He has a 72nd percentile breakout age. The other poster is right. Kevin White had a higher bust potential than DK does for the reasons he stated.

[Mr. Wizard]

As someone with pick 1.05, Metcalf going before me would be welcome so I don’t have to wrestle with his massive boom/bust factor. I’m hoping for Sanders to get to me, really like him. Hakeem caught my eye too, though 1.05 may be early.

[Krypto_King]

I’m not sure if he’s the 1.01 or not, but the whole “route running” knock is silly. He’s 21 years old. He can learn how to run routes. You can’t teach these smaller, older, slower, more polished route-runners how to be an athletic freak like Metcalf.

can you name some of these players that learned to become great route runners after entering the NFL?

All my peaks behind the curtain to the NFL are more of the, "wtf are you doing?" from coaches rather than some sort of nurturing, developmental, teaching atmosphere.

[Krypto_King]

Metcalf isn't in my top 5 at wr.

As for the Kevin White comps, it misses the point about why Kevin White was a bad prospect. Kevin White was a bad prospect because he had no real success until he was a 22 year old playing in the big 12. He was drafted at 23. Metcalf just turned 21. He broke out as a redshirt freshman. I agree Metcalf is risky because of the injury history and the limited tape/sample size, but he was at least able to produce before he was older than everybody lining up across from him.

Kevin White was a bad prospect because he got injured 3 times. White had like 33%+ market share in Juco as a SO. Metcalf had 16% as a RS FR so he's still waiting to break out. And if you think that actually was a breakout from DK, White had 15%+ his first year at WVA so either way this is mistaken.

[honcho55]

I haven’t been here terribly long. There’s been more helpful threads.

This is my favorite though

[Factory of Sadness]

I'm instinctively on the don't risk side of things with Metcalf. I like a long track record of production for one thing. I also like to be able to see a progression in terms of skill and performance. In addition, he really does fit the mould of the athlete that can't cut it when the game gets harder and more complicated on Sundays.
That said, there remain some very simple truths in sport and being bigger, stronger, faster and more straight-line explosive than anyone else is a hell of a trump card. Kevin White's recurring injuries in Chicago played a part in his struggles, but White, as described above, didn't really separate. Because of Metcalf's poor agility scores and the idea that he is athlete not player it seems people think he's going to have to rely on boxing people out. That's a hard way to make a living in the NFL. Metcalf can generate crazy separation though. He does it through his speed, the threat of his speed and his physical strength to bully DBs as they try to jam, re-route or track him.

He is not Treadwell 2.0. He really isn't. Nor is he Doctson or Parker. He can get open.

If he goes to a team that won't develop him and will use him as a bullying version of D-Jax to just take the top-off the D and make space for others, then I'm out as he may never develop. If he goes somewhere with a gunslinger at QB and a coach who wants to make him into a special weapon, then I'm all in.

[Jigga94]

As someone with pick 1.05, Metcalf going before me would be welcome so I don’t have to wrestle with his massive boom/bust factor. I’m hoping for Sanders to get to me, really like him. Hakeem caught my eye too, though 1.05 may be early.

I like what you've said and agree on the same prospects... The thing with this draft is that I don't think there's a "too early". If they are your guy, then go get em. I have the #1 and 2 pick and am trying to trade them but also still trying to figure out who my top 2 would be...

[OhCruelestRanter]

Metcalf isn't in my top 5 at wr.

As for the Kevin White comps, it misses the point about why Kevin White was a bad prospect. Kevin White was a bad prospect because he had no real success until he was a 22 year old playing in the big 12. He was drafted at 23. Metcalf just turned 21. He broke out as a redshirt freshman. I agree Metcalf is risky because of the injury history and the limited tape/sample size, but he was at least able to produce before he was older than everybody lining up across from him.

Kevin White was a bad prospect because he got injured 3 times. White had like 33%+ market share in Juco as a SO. Metcalf had 16% as a RS FR so he's still waiting to break out. And if you think that actually was a breakout from DK, White had 15%+ his first year at WVA so either way this is mistaken.

1. I don't think there's any data to support JuCo market share as correlating with success. I could be wrong, so if you have it, please share.
2. Per game market share correlates slightly better than total season market share, which is why sites like playerprofiler.com use that to determine breakout age. (source: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbe ... -wr?page=1

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I’m not sure if he’s the 1.01 or not, but the whole “route running” knock is silly. He’s 21 years old. He can learn how to run routes. You can’t teach these smaller, older, slower, more polished route-runners how to be an athletic freak like Metcalf.

can you name some of these players that learned to become great route runners after entering the NFL?

All my peaks behind the curtain to the NFL are more of the, "wtf are you doing?" from coaches rather than some sort of nurturing, developmental, teaching atmosphere.

DT would be one example. He was considered to have a very limited route tree coming in. He didn't become a great route runner, but he became a good enough route runner to take advantage of his great athleticism.

Becoming a great route runner is not likely for Metcalf, but he only needs to be adequate to be a really good WR. He's still a huge flop chance for 1.01, but the ceiling is really enticing.