DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

[joeya2001]

I think chances are extremely high that DK goes ahead of Cook in startups next offseason.

I think chances are fair that DK goes top 2-3 if not 1st overall in many startups next offseason.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's a startup first rounder, but I think 1.01 is a reach. RB scarcity is a real thing.

Elite WRs often have longer fantasy viable careers, but most leagues are won by elite RB play. I respect wanting to build a dynasty team off of the best long term assets, but with unexpected changes happening all the time, I wouldn’t pick a WR simply because they should have a longer career. Look at Dez and OBJ. Both younger WRs who were top picks but they didn’t remain elite any longer than an elite RB. If you want to win, you pick the best stud younger RBs early.

It took me a few years to understand that, but im starting to see it lol

[dynastyninja]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's a startup first rounder, but I think 1.01 is a reach. RB scarcity is a real thing.

Elite WRs often have longer fantasy viable careers, but most leagues are won by elite RB play. I respect wanting to build a dynasty team off of the best long term assets, but with unexpected changes happening all the time, I wouldn’t pick a WR simply because they should have a longer career. Look at Dez and OBJ. Both younger WRs who were top picks but they didn’t remain elite any longer than an elite RB. If you want to win, you pick the best stud younger RBs early.

It took me a few years to understand that, but im starting to see it lol

Took me 3-4 years, as well. I used to be laser focused on longevity and went heavier on the receiver side. Good paper teams that didn't win.

[CGW]

Elite WRs often have longer fantasy viable careers, but most leagues are won by elite RB play. I respect wanting to build a dynasty team off of the best long term assets, but with unexpected changes happening all the time, I wouldn’t pick a WR simply because they should have a longer career. Look at Dez and OBJ. Both younger WRs who were top picks but they didn’t remain elite any longer than an elite RB. If you want to win, you pick the best stud younger RBs early.

It took me a few years to understand that, but im starting to see it lol

Took me 3-4 years, as well. I used to be laser focused on longevity and went heavier on the receiver side. Good paper teams that didn't win.

I've found it really depends on the league. My leagues haven't been dominated by RB heavy teams as the RBs are well spread out. Most good teams have 1 or 2 good RBs but thin after. We've never had a repeat winner and that's primarily because no1 has dominated the RB market and RB values disappear overnight, causing a very short title windows.

It's fairly hard to win without both good WR and RBs.

I think top end WR are a big asset that retains value for a long time, just as QB does in SF. Your window is much longer with elite WR cores. If you can build a strong core and then pick up a couple young RB studs, you have a good shot at a true dynasty.

[Cameron Giles]

I would not trade DK for anything right now. Sure Cook is dynamic but also injury prone. RB's - even good ones can falter due to injury and be fantasy irrelevant in a few short years. I had DK ranked really high due to his solid rookie season, that playoff performance, and his 17 EZ targets in 2019. (not Red Zone - 17 END ZONE Targets!) that is insane. Some have compared him to Jerry Rice because of his work ethic. Wilson likely has 10 good years left, combine all that and you have a perennial 1st rounder. If he stays healthy and continues to ascend then are Rice like numbers possible? Imagine trading away Jerry Rice in 1987. Anyone who owns DK should be glad they have him.

So, he's definitely not Jerry Rice and their games are completely different.

[Vcize]

I think chances are extremely high that DK goes ahead of Cook in startups next offseason.

I think chances are fair that DK goes top 2-3 if not 1st overall in many startups next offseason.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's a startup first rounder, but I think 1.01 is a reach. RB scarcity is a real thing.

Elite WRs often have longer fantasy viable careers, but most leagues are won by elite RB play. I respect wanting to build a dynasty team off of the best long term assets, but with unexpected changes happening all the time, I wouldn’t pick a WR simply because they should have a longer career. Look at Dez and OBJ. Both younger WRs who were top picks but they didn’t remain elite any longer than an elite RB. If you want to win, you pick the best stud younger RBs early.

Believe me, I am the king of "build around RBs, not WRs". If you look back through my post history you will see about 100 posts of me hammering home this point.

But the RBs are in a weird spot right now where the really elite ones are reaching an age where dynasty owners start to get less interested, and the really young ones haven't played well enough to be 1st overall in a startup type players.

In this day and age, people probably aren't going to draft a 26 year old high mileage running back (Zeke) 1st overall in startup.

They're not going to consistently draft a guy coming off a major knee injury on a terrible team (Saquon) 1st overall.

They're not going to consistently draft a 26 year old coming off his 3rd straight season missing a chunk of time with an injury (Cook).

Unless CEH/JT finish a lot stronger than they've started, people probably don't see them as sure fire enough studs to take 1st overall in most cases.

That leaves Kamara and CMC. Kamara, like Zeke, will be 26 which is an age where dynasty owners start to get less interested in paying 1st overall kind of value around pretty quickly. Unlike Zeke he doesn't have the huge workload history working against him but he'll likely have a questionable QB/team situation, and combined with the age I doubt he consistently goes 1.01.

So we have CMC as the obvious large contender, and to be honest CMC is the main reason why I qualified DK as "consistently top 3, and sometimes 1.01" instead of saying he had a good chance of being the consistent 1.01. CMC isn't exactly young (25 next offseason), and he does have the big workload in his past. For CMC it will really depend on how he finishes this season. His injury is one where guys typically underperform after returning (same injury Saquon underperformed with in 2019 and dropped from 1.01 in 2018 startups to 1.02 in 2019 startups). Just as worrying, Davis has looked really good as CMC's fill-in. Good enough that they can probably give CMC "only" 70% of the touches on his way back from injury instead of the 95% he was getting before.

So if CMC finishes out the year getting 70-75% of the touches while putting up 70% of his normal efficiency on those touches that he usually would with the lingering ankle injury, it is going to affect his value. If he does that alongside DK finishing with something like 70-1400-12 (which would be well under his current pace) as a 22 year old physical freak tied to a stud QB for the foreseeable future, that is going to be a tough choice for people.

The current overabundance of WRs really hurts the value of guys like Adams/MT who are a little older, and guys like AJB/Tyreek who have put up merely "pretty good" numbers. That changes when you have a guy that walks, talks, and performs like Megatron at age 22 and locked into better QB play. Metcalf is definitely the one guy that can buck the trend of focusing far more heavily on RBs, which is trend I certainly agree with and have been arguing in favor of for the last 10 years.

I truly don't think people have embraced just how high DK's value is likely to be next offseason unless his production really falls off a cliff the rest of the year. I was really hoping he would have a bad game in primetime in week 5 to present some small buying opportunity. I think "overpaying" for DK right now will look like a ridiculous underpay by next offseason.

[Cameron Giles]

Here's the thing about Megatron's value in his prime: He was all-time great and the WR position was not even remotely as deep as it is now. So, he was a positional advantage. Metcalf is WR5 in terms of PPG and there are a ton of WRs within distance of that.

He's not really bucking any trend or making the case for it more than someone like Michael Thomas has in his first four seasons or Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, etc. The age is appealing, but he's got a long ways to go before we're talking about Megatron.

[Ice]

Here's the thing about Megatron's value in his prime: He was all-time great and the WR position was not even remotely as deep as it is now. So, he was a positional advantage. Metcalf is WR5 in terms of PPG and there are a ton of WRs within distance of that.

He's not really bucking any trend or making the case for it more than someone like Michael Thomas has in his first four seasons or Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, etc. The age is appealing, but he's got a long ways to go before we're talking about Megatron.

Not really sure what your point really is but DK's rookie year was better than C. Johnson's. Year two will probably be really close as well based on current numbers with D.k.'s yards per target decidedly better.

Johnson did have 150 targets in year 2 which was pretty amazing. DK is tracking at 125 so we could see a slight difference.

The point is DK is tracking very well which is one reason his value is very high in fantasy circles these days.

Obviously Johnson was great but in fantasy we buy on production as well as production potential and DK's potential is through the roof good.

[Vcize]

Here's the thing about Megatron's value in his prime: He was all-time great and the WR position was not even remotely as deep as it is now. So, he was a positional advantage. Metcalf is WR5 in terms of PPG and there are a ton of WRs within distance of that.

He's not really bucking any trend or making the case for it more than someone like Michael Thomas has in his first four seasons or Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, etc. The age is appealing, but he's got a long ways to go before we're talking about Megatron.

Megatron was WR5 in PPG his 2nd year with a final line of 78-1331-12.

Metcalf is currently WR3 in PPG.

Obviously with the similarities in their insane size/speed combination comparisons are going to be drawn between the two among fantasy owners, and Metcalf's career arc is tracking exactly to Megatron's so far.

You're right that WRs generally have less value now than before, but that applies more to "pretty good" WRs who offer no advantages to their peers, not the ones that people see as having elite 20 TD upside like Metcalf. People aren't buying Metcalf for what he's doing, they're buying Metcalf for what he might do going forward if he's already doing this as a 22 year old that has all the physical tools and perfect situation to become something truly special.

Additionally part of that is balanced out by the notion that while WRs are valued less now than they were in 2008, mid 20's running backs are too.

Guys like Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Cook, etc will be worth less heading into next offseason as 25/26 year olds than they would have been back in 2008 when people didn't really start to worry about a major drop-off in performance until a RB was nearing 30. And there is no comparison in the current NFL to a 23 year old Adrian Peterson coming off a near 2000 yard season like there was against Megatron.

[hoos89]

Believe me, I am the king of "build around RBs, not WRs". If you look back through my post history you will see about 100 posts of me hammering home this point.

But the RBs are in a weird spot right now where the really elite ones are reaching an age where dynasty owners start to get less interested, and the really young ones haven't played well enough to be 1st overall in a startup type players.

...

Yep, lot of very good points here. People always view the RB cliff as 30, but the truth is that RBs, especially those getting a ton of touches, often fall off through their late 20s. Jacobs, CEH, Taylor and Sanders are the obvious younger RBs to step into that new elite tier of dynasty RBs, and while they've all had their moments none have really done enough to warrant it. I think next season we could see a reversion to the mid-2010s style WR-heavy first rounds. It wouldn't surprise me that much if DK Metcalf, AJB, Justin Jefferson, Ridley and CeeDee Lamb were all top 5-10 picks next offseason (and there are a lot of other talented young WRs who could enter that convo with strong back halves of the season, such as DJM, Godwin, JuJu, Jeudy, Higgins and Claypool).

Here's the thing about Megatron's value in his prime: He was all-time great and the WR position was not even remotely as deep as it is now. So, he was a positional advantage. Metcalf is WR5 in terms of PPG and there are a ton of WRs within distance of that.

He's not really bucking any trend or making the case for it more than someone like Michael Thomas has in his first four seasons or Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, etc. The age is appealing, but he's got a long ways to go before we're talking about Megatron.

DK isn't even his prime yet...

[Patsfan86]

Here's the thing about Megatron's value in his prime: He was all-time great and the WR position was not even remotely as deep as it is now. So, he was a positional advantage. Metcalf is WR5 in terms of PPG and there are a ton of WRs within distance of that.

He's not really bucking any trend or making the case for it more than someone like Michael Thomas has in his first four seasons or Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, etc. The age is appealing, but he's got a long ways to go before we're talking about Megatron.

Not really sure what your point really is but DK's rookie year was better than C. Johnson's. Year two will probably be really close as well based on current numbers with D.k.'s yards per target decidedly better.

Johnson did have 150 targets in year 2 which was pretty amazing. DK is tracking at 125 so we could see a slight difference.

The point is DK is tracking very well which is one reason his value is very high in fantasy circles these days.

Obviously Johnson was great but in fantasy we buy on production as well as production potential and DK's potential is through the roof good.

Many of your thoughts mirror mine and its why i turned down Cook. In my position there is no point in taking an aging RB over someone with the enormous ceiling of Metcalf. I definitely agree that you should build around RBs but in a rebuild i dont want to take that approach due to the short shelf life and volatility of RB, ill grab the Stud Wrs first then work on RBs. While receivers are a dime a dozen that is really only counting Wrs 6-20, Wrs 1-5 are usually still tremendously valuable and give you a big positional advantage. Dk can easily be one of these guys for many years. It may take a 200 yard multi TD Prime Julio Jones type game for everyone to start agreeing on Metcalf but thats gonna happen eventually

[hoos89]

Also Cook has never played a full season. He's incredible when on the field but he's just not someone I want to rely on in the fantasy playoffs.

[Cameron Giles]

Not really sure what your point really is but DK's rookie year was better than C. Johnson's. Year two will probably be really close as well based on current numbers with D.k.'s yards per target decidedly better.

Johnson did have 150 targets in year 2 which was pretty amazing. DK is tracking at 125 so we could see a slight difference.

The point is DK is tracking very well which is one reason his value is very high in fantasy circles these days.

Obviously Johnson was great but in fantasy we buy on production as well as production potential and DK's potential is through the roof good.

Read the post above mine. I'm not dismissing why he's going high in startups right now.

I'm saying that idea that he's a WR who's going make people buck the trend of going heavy on RBs early in startups doesn't make much sense, given that he's not exactly presenting the positional or talent advantage that Megatron did when he broke out.

[Ice]

Not really sure what your point really is but DK's rookie year was better than C. Johnson's. Year two will probably be really close as well based on current numbers with D.k.'s yards per target decidedly better.

Johnson did have 150 targets in year 2 which was pretty amazing. DK is tracking at 125 so we could see a slight difference.

The point is DK is tracking very well which is one reason his value is very high in fantasy circles these days.

Obviously Johnson was great but in fantasy we buy on production as well as production potential and DK's potential is through the roof good.

Read the post above mine. I'm not dismissing why he's going high in startups right now.

I'm saying that idea that he's a WR who's going make people buck the trend of going heavy on RBs early in startups doesn't make much sense, given that he's not exactly presenting the positional or talent advantage that Megatron did when he broke out.

Makes sense, I don't look too closely at Start up value as that metric is masses driven. Obviously, the lack of true young 3 down backs in today's NFL will drive up top 5 value so I get your point.

I was comparing actual players and DK's shelf life gamble is way lower than any RB looking at a team long term.

[Vcize]

Not really sure what your point really is but DK's rookie year was better than C. Johnson's. Year two will probably be really close as well based on current numbers with D.k.'s yards per target decidedly better.

Johnson did have 150 targets in year 2 which was pretty amazing. DK is tracking at 125 so we could see a slight difference.

The point is DK is tracking very well which is one reason his value is very high in fantasy circles these days.

Obviously Johnson was great but in fantasy we buy on production as well as production potential and DK's potential is through the roof good.

Read the post above mine. I'm not dismissing why he's going high in startups right now.

I'm saying that idea that he's a WR who's going make people buck the trend of going heavy on RBs early in startups doesn't make much sense, given that he's not exactly presenting the positional or talent advantage that Megatron did when he broke out.

In Megatron's breakout season he offered a 2.3ppg advantage over WR12, 4.8ppg advantage over WR24, and 6.3ppg advantage over WR36.

Currently Metcalf has a 2.3ppg advantage over WR12, 4.75ppg advantage over WR24, and 7.02ppg advantage over WR36.

So at least so far, the actual advantages are almost identical. And again, that's before we consider that people ding the value of a RB for being 25/26 years old a lot harder now than they did back then.

Whether it be age, workload, lack of elite production, or 2 of the 3 unless one of the really young guys (CEH, JT, Sanders, Jacobs) has a MAJOR breakout in the 2nd half of the year all of the current crop of RBs have at least one major ding against them that will allow people to talk themselves into taking what they believe is a 22 year old Megatron/Julio over them in quite a few drafts, imo.

[Vcize]

Plays in prime time tonight against a weak defense. After showing out in prime time in his last game too right now may be the last chance to buy him for anything less than randy moss in his prime on the vikings type prices.

I am rooting for a bad game even though I have several shares just to maybe give one last buying opportunity where I don't already have him, but I have a feeling he becomes completely untouchable after today.