DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

[ArrylT]

Though AJ Brown operated on easier, short to medium yardage throws.... I mean, not all catchable passes are the same, like not all chocolate is equally as good.

Drops can go away, but catchable passes are catchable passes.

I could be mistaken but doesnt that depend on a WRs catch radius & a QBs accuracy?

Wouldnt a player with a bad catch radius paired with a QB with less than pinpoint accuracy have less catchable passes than a WR with a large catch radius and a QB that can target the extremities of that radius safely?

[Cult of Dionysus]

I disagree with that Cameron. The further the ball travels the harder it is to catch it. The same way bullets are harder to catch then a nice rainbow pass.

[Cameron Giles]

I disagree. The further the ball travels the harder it is to catch it.

Brown was used on all three levels of the field, but they weren't dinking and dunking with him:



In fact, his YPRR was higher in the slot. Brown just has better hands than Metcalf and is a better receiver and football player right now.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Though AJ Brown operated on easier, short to medium yardage throws.... I mean, not all catchable passes are the same, like not all chocolate is equally as good.

Drops can go away, but catchable passes are catchable passes.

I could be mistaken but doesnt that depend on a WRs catch radius & a QBs accuracy?

Wouldnt a player with a bad catch radius paired with a QB with less than pinpoint accuracy have less catchable passes than a WR with a large catch radius and a QB that can target the extremities of that radius safely?

That's a different issue. But it is also true and can't factor into drop rates. A guy like DK3©one has a far bigger catch radius on account of his speed, height and length, so he will have more catchable passes, even though they may be poorly thrown.

[Cult of Dionysus]

I disagree. The further the ball travels the harder it is to catch it.

Brown was used on all three levels of the field, but they weren't dinking and dunking with him:




In fact, his YPRR was higher in the slot. Brown just has better hands than Metcalf and is a better receiver and football player right now.

Or maybe the slot is the place to be in that system, while the defense focuses on a near Demigod of a WR taking the top off the DBs.

Not saying that's the case, but the reality is that there are so many variables at play here, you really can't know much of anything for sure until each player takes the NFL field, and even that is dependent on where each guy goes, as to how productive they will be.

[Cameron Giles]

Or maybe the slot is the place to be in that system, while the defense focuses on a near Demigod of a WR taking the top off the DBs.

Not saying that's the case, but the reality is that there are so many variables at play here, you really can't know much of anything for sure until each player takes the NFL field, and even that is dependent on where each guy goes, as to how productive they will be.

The variable is that Brown can run more routes than Metcalf and gets open better, so they change his alignment more.

Also, keep in mind that A.J. Brown had a higher depth-adjusted yards per target than Metcalf last season. PFF has a good read on it:

PFF first began grading college players in 2014. Since then, we’ve seen 372 wide receivers record at least 150 targets in the NCAA. Of those 372 wide receivers, here are the top-12 by depth-adjusted yards per target over expectation:

[Cult of Dionysus]

I'm a huge Brown fact, to be clear

[Cameron Giles]

I'm a huge Brown fact, to be clear

For sure, I'm just saying that AJ wasn't really being used to dink and dunk. He was still getting a bunch of work downfield.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm with you, Ice. I was going to take Metcalf with my 1.01 or 1.02 but moved them for Ezekial.

[JTLoh]

My scouting of players both offense and defense has served me well going on close to 30 years now. I am extremely confident......

But did you tell people to go get Pat Mahomes before he was Pat Mahomes?

[Ice]

Though AJ Brown operated on easier, short to medium yardage throws.... I mean, not all catchable passes are the same, like not all chocolate is equally as good.

Drops can go away, but catchable passes are catchable passes.

I could be mistaken but doesnt that depend on a WRs catch radius & a QBs accuracy?

Wouldnt a player with a bad catch radius paired with a QB with less than pinpoint accuracy have less catchable passes than a WR with a large catch radius and a QB that can target the extremities of that radius safely?

A lot goes into a drop stat but one of the biggest factor is the actual official game scorer. The dropped throws right in hands are easy. Players with larger a catch radius are often penalized. Short passes are easier to complete and catch. The higher the ball velocity the more difficult. The problem with balls thrown behind a player at full speed is extremely hard to catch but often times its counted as a drop when in fact it is more on the QB.

Personally, I don't put a lot of stock in drop rates at the college level. I do look at the tape of bad plays for WR's which usually involves watching a lot of QB tape.

As most know I am a big fan of both AJ Brown and Metcalf. Both had to deal with a QB that will ultimately be a stock broker or some private sector job so that has to be considered. The one thing about AJ that many should consider is he plays a ton from the slot which means he won't be going against the best DB and his routes are more slant based which is the easiest of throws or should be. He makes a ton of catches over the middle which are much easier. He can definitely catch well.

His minor concern is where will he actually play in the NFL. He is pretty big for a slot WR at the NFL and his first step quickness is pretty average. Ultimately he may be more of an X in the NFL depending on location. His advantage is he has shown he can play both positions. His game speed is pretty average but he does show a 2nd gear on film which will help his draft stock. He is a slightly bigger and faster D. Adams type with much bigger hands. Big fan of this player.

Both these players should benefit at the NFL as the worst NFL QB is 20X better than what they dealt with in college.

Many thought C. Coleman was a top tier WR coming out as an example. The problem was his hand position was so bad he double clutched everything and really couldn't catch a cold.

Not saying drop percentage doesn't matter as a high percentage means an evaluator should take a long look at how a player actually catches the ball. In college, unless your a K. Harmon type, most won't spend their free time on a jug machine. In the NFL WR's live on them to hone their their concentration and catch skill. Hand positioning is critical to look at for a WR and much more important than the drop rate to confirm if a player can really catch or not.

Both Metcalf and Brown have very good catch technique in spite of QB play. This is one reason many will have 1st round or high 2nd round NFL grades on them.

[Ice]

My scouting of players both offense and defense has served me well going on close to 30 years now. I am extremely confident......

But did you tell people to go get Pat Mahomes before he was Pat Mahomes?

I am a Texas Tech Grad and actually know a ton about the Mahomes family from my baseball days as a pitching coach. Pat Mahomes is his father and was a MLB pitcher. BTW, he goes by Patrick as to not get confused with his father.

Yes, I told a few people about Patrick due to his near flawless throwing mechanics.
Thanks for asking!

[OhCruelestRanter]

I am not going to dumb down my vocabulary for those that don’t have a college education.

I am a Texas Tech Grad

[JTLoh]

I am a Texas Tech Grad and actually know a ton about the Mahomes family from my baseball days as a pitching coach. Pat Mahomes is his father and was a MLB pitcher. BTW, he goes by Patrick as to not get confused with his father.

Yes, I told a few people about Patrick due to his near flawless throwing mechanics.
Thanks for asking!

Wow! Sounds like you know your stuff. Told a few people, huh?
Well come back to me when you started a Thread like this........
viewtopic.php?t=169653

[FiremanEd]

While D.K may never be Julio on the field, there is a good chance he exceeds Evans which is where I personally put his floor at the NFL level.

That is mighty high praise considering what Evans has accomplished. To put anyone's floor at Mike Evans level is a bold statement that shouldn't be overlooked. Statements like this are ones I hold to a name when spoken as confidently as is being done. I'm not saying you are or will be wrong, but the odds are unlikely given it is a HoF statistical pace. We shall see, though it sounds like you may not be hanging around to see through the outcome.

I haven't read all of the pages, but the dialogue here sounds like typical forum discussion with conflicting opinions more than 'attacks'. This isn't a place for simple agreements to be made, rather differing opinions to be stated. I think yours has been done and is noted and there isn't anything wrong with that, just like the many others. To each their own. I wouldn't get upset about others differing on their opinion on DK. The bolded statement above is evidence enough that you are extremely high on him at a level few others would be willing to venture to even if they are supporters.