DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

[mild]

Uh, 102 receptions for 1378 yds and 8 TDs is MT’s average season prior to his injured year last year. Get as snarky as you want, but if I’m not mistaken that average is worth more in ppr FF than DK’s year last year that you and others are banking on his bettering. MT is already what DK’s owners are hoping are his upside.

Not really sure why I'm bothering, but... lets try it this way:

- Some people play dynasty and pay for what a player -has- done
- Some people play dynasty and pay for what a player -will- do

If you don't think the math has changed any on a 28 year old Michael Thomas who just lost Drew Brees and is stuck on a capped-to-hell Jameis-led Saints team, then yeah, sure, fine. Godspeed, and enjoy the ride.

But we're talking about a guy that just turned 23 who broke the speed-score mould at 225lbs / 4.33, and gets to catch bombs from Russell Wilson - and who hasn't even had his 3rd season yet, the typical big "breakout" season for WR's.

You're kinda picking a pretty funny hill to die on here. It'll look pretty hilarious in a year's time too, at a guess... but at least you'll have lots of MT shares!

[Bronco Billy]

You're kinda picking a pretty funny hill to die on here. It'll look pretty hilarious in a year's time too, at a guess... but at least you'll have lots of MT shares!

I guess that’s a bad thing in your mind? You just keep on burning those top picks on young hope-to-be studs, I’ll draft the guys who have already proven themselves as studs a couple rounds later, and we’ll see who’s on the hill dying when it all shakes out.

[killer_of_giants]

You're kinda picking a pretty funny hill to die on here. It'll look pretty hilarious in a year's time too, at a guess... but at least you'll have lots of MT shares!

I guess that’s a bad thing in your mind? You just keep on burning those top picks on young hope-to-be studs, I’ll draft the guys who have already proven themselves as studs a couple rounds later, and we’ll see who’s on the hill dying when it all shakes out.

moving the goalposts here. the debate isn't about DK in the 1st round or thomas in the 3rd.

[Bronco Billy]

You're kinda picking a pretty funny hill to die on here. It'll look pretty hilarious in a year's time too, at a guess... but at least you'll have lots of MT shares!

I guess that’s a bad thing in your mind? You just keep on burning those top picks on young hope-to-be studs, I’ll draft the guys who have already proven themselves as studs a couple rounds later, and we’ll see who’s on the hill dying when it all shakes out.

moving the goalposts here. the debate isn't about DK in the 1st round or thomas in the 3rd.

Which one of those choices has a better chance of providing upside? I didn’t make it that argument. My position is that MT belongs up with DK. If you can get that 2 rounds later, which is the better value?

[stoneghost28]

I've been fielding a lot of DK offers/conversations. Just wondering if I am rating him to high. I have him pegged as a late first/early second in a start up for value, and between WR 3-5. Is that about right or am I way off?

WR1 for me.

I completed a deal midseason for a '21 and '22 first for him quite happily, even knowing both firsts were high (I take some solace in that a pick I acquired last summer and projected to be 1.01-1.03, ended up 1.04, and the '22 class looks a lot worse than I thought 9 months ago when I was wondering if we'd get a bunch of '21's decide to go back to school for a normal season to lift stock, that did not happen, so '22 at this point looks like '16 and '19 more than '17-'18, or '20-'21).

I wouldn't trade him unless you get a Godfather.

[Jrblaha]

I was a huge DK buy as one of top 3 dynasty WRs. But all this Russ trade talks have me nervous. I now think he’s a sell for me (if still valued as the top dynasty WR)

[Pullo Vision]

I was a huge DK buy as one of top 3 dynasty WRs. But all this Russ trade talks have me nervous. I now think he’s a sell for me (if still valued as the top dynasty WR)

This will be an interesting dynamic. Off the top of my head, ARob was a young productive WR whose value seemed undercut by the Jax offense. As a hypothetical, Metcalf in a run based offense with Carr is still valuable.

[killer_of_giants]

if someone's panic-selling, i'm buying (some more).

[burntfire]

I was a huge DK buy as one of top 3 dynasty WRs. But all this Russ trade talks have me nervous. I now think he’s a sell for me (if still valued as the top dynasty WR)

This will be an interesting dynamic. Off the top of my head, ARob was a young productive WR whose value seemed undercut by the Jax offense. As a hypothetical, Metcalf in a run based offense with Carr is still valuable.

I mean JJ could fall off a cliff if Cousins leaves so why panic? It would take one hell of an offer for me to give him up even if Wilson left.

[Blue710]

16 Team League, Metcalf, 2.03, Mack for Jefferson and Jeudy. Thoughts?

[Cameron Giles]

Given how reliant he is on go routes and the deep ball, Russell leaving could be a significant downgrade to production. Russ was 7th in the NFL last season in on target passes in general, and led the league in play action completion %.

[bjd5211]

16 Team League, Metcalf, 2.03, Mack for Jefferson and Jeudy. Thoughts?

DK > Jefferson for me, but Jeudy >> Mack/2.03

Pretty easily Jefferson and Jeudy side.

[ajpmn01]

I'm a little nervous about the Russ talk but I'm still happy with a trade I made for DK in a 12 team SF: Miles Sanders, Claypool, Jonnu Smith and 3.02 for DK and Irv Smith. I have Dobbins, Taylor and Swift for RBs and Jefferson, Jeudy, Shenault and Fuller to pair with DK.

I didn't think the talk about Russ moving on was anything more than talk but then it was reported he submitted a list of destinations. I realized if this doesn't get fixed he may be gone in the near future, next year if not this one. I'm hoping Seattle does right for him, he's done a lot for them. It's time to get a damn Oline that can protect him.

For now, DK is still a top 5 WR. The uncertainty lowers him a bit but I'll take a chance at this point.

[ravn88]

Lets say Russ i gone, how much does that hurt Metcalf as a WR1?

[Bronco Billy]

Lets say Russ i gone, how much does that hurt Metcalf as a WR1?

I think even with Wilson there people are overrating him. Wilson is entering his 10th year in the league and last year set career marks for attempts, completions, completion pct, and TDs and just missed on passing yards by 7 yds.

However, his average ypa and nypa were the second lowest in his career and he’s been averaging nearly 50 sacks per year over the past 3 years.

Carroll has already said he’s wanting to emphasize the run more in the coming season, which is his MO on offense. Between that and expecting Wilson to remain at personal record levels of productivity while taking such a beating, expectations for DK seem just too high no matter that he is so talented. Lockett is still there too and Wilson relies on him, so there is still going to be that split in opportunities, and it’s very reasonable to expect there to be less opportunities overall.

If Wilson isn’t there? Can SEA replace him with someone better and that Carroll will allow to throw more than Wilson did last year? I don’t see that at all, unless Lockett were somehow just thrown to the curb by that QB.