MEuRaH wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:18 pm
I might as well put my money where my mouth is. I've been outspoken several times here before, but I've never given my RB analysis until AFTER the draft because owners in my league would otherwise steal my players. Well, I've decided that I'm just going to deal with that this year, and give you my 2019 review right now.
For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.
What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.
So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.
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MUST HAVE'S
Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.
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SHOULD BE'S
Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.
Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately. I predicted Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a zone runner with excellent vision and quickness, and I believe he can also succeed in any scheme. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER,
he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. This is my favorite late-round player that I've researched over the past several years, not close. Whoever drafts him will be one lucky SOB. He isn't as good as the two guys above, but he'll be a Phillip Lindsay type player. I think he's easily worth a mid 1st right now, but you might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round!..... I do worry about his durability.
Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. He'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.
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COULD BE'S
Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round.
David Montgomery - I've said it before and I'll say it again; This is the most over-rated RB in the last 5 years. He isn't special. He's a power runner with great hands out of the backfield, so that's nice. He doesn't sink his hips, he runs upright, he carries the ball in the same arm no matter which side of the field he's on (so it's always in harms way, but also gives a clue that he's uncoachable). If he's draft to the Ravens and is only asked to run straight forward, yeah he's worth a 1st round pick to some people. Not me, but some people.
Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season.
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PROBABLY NOT'S
Benny Snell - I wanted to like this guy. I came into the tape rooting for him, and just came away unimpressed. He's a zone runner with good hips, but he doesn't yet have the quickness to make people miss consistently. With good coaching, this guy could be a really good RB in 1-2 years. He's a project pick at best, and he HAS to be picked to a zone running team. He can't catch out of the backfield... so that's bad... he's touched the ball 800 times but only 29 catches.... yikes.
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DEFINITELY NOT'S
Tony Pollard - He's listed as a RB and showed some great zone skills, but mostly played in the slot or out wide, a-la Nyhiem Hines. I don't know what to make of him yet. He could be good if he went to the right system, but it's too hard to tell atm. I want no part as of now.
Justice Hill, Rodney Anderson, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams - No. No to all these guys. They are zone runners without the tools necessary to be zone runners. Dexter Williams in particular I think is the worst of this group. He has no skills, just runs fast, then brags like he's the greatest to ever play the game. He's going to get a wake up call.
Trayveon Williams - The only power runner at the bottom of this list. He could be something like a Jeremy Langford. He'll show a spark and be worth a 1st rounder real quick, but then fizzle out and disappear. Worth a late flyer just for the sake of trading him later.
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And that does it for now. If you look at the history of RBs Pre-draft and then 2-3 years later, you'll notice a pattern that 1-2 guys near the top succeeded, most are still milling around, 1 guy out-performs out of nowhere, and the rest disappear. I think my rankings are similar to that. Post your feedback, I'm always up for conversation.