The gazelle (Tyrell Williams)

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fakespike13
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Re: The gazelle

Postby fakespike13 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:24 pm

Defenses will consistently double team Mr Big Chest, and Carr supposedly hates throwing into tight coverages downfield. Maybe Tyrell becomes the guy Carr is more comfortable throwing to.
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Re: The gazelle

Postby Huh » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:47 pm

fakespike13 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:24 pm
Defenses will consistently double team Mr Big Chest, and Carr supposedly hates throwing into tight coverages downfield. Maybe Tyrell becomes the guy Carr is more comfortable throwing to.
While wallowing, this crossed my mind. The only wr of note with built in chemistry is jordy. Tyrell was always the talk of trading camp so maybe he can glom onto Carr. Who can resist those mile apart eyes?

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Re: The gazelle

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:52 pm

fakespike13 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:24 pm
Defenses will consistently double team Mr Big Chest, and Carr supposedly hates throwing into tight coverages downfield. Maybe Tyrell becomes the guy Carr is more comfortable throwing to.
I really don't think so. Carr just did not feel comfortable throwing to Cooper in those situations, and rightfully so. Amari is not a good contested catch guy. He had zero problems with a receiver he trusted in that area, like Crabtree. I've watched a lot of Raiders football over the years, and I think Carr will have no problems throwing to AB in tight coverage. Tyrell will be a good secondary guy, but AB will get fed.
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Re: The gazelle

Postby Factory of Sadness » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:22 am

I'm quite surprised at the response to this. Unless we imagined Williams performing some evil voodoo with a Julio Jones doll, he was always going to be a number 2 at best. To be the number 2 to a top 3 WR on a team that's likely to be behind a lot and whose QB scores much higher on arm than willingness to hit tight windows strikes me as ideal. If he can't beat out what's left of Jordy, then he was going to be worthless anywhere. I like this spot for him a lot.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby Plank » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:50 am

I think he brings versatility, he is able to play all 3 WR positions .. think the Raiders attack won't be a big departure from how the Chargers like to rotate their WR's .. I am just curious if Carr is going to bounce back, he missed WR's a lot last year, wide open receivers, streaking down the field, left so much on the field..
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Re: The gazelle

Postby jetsfan5757 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:00 am

Elroypedro wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 pm
Hmmm I am not an owner anywhere, but I am seemingly much higher on this signing than others. He is the clear number 2 target behind AB now, and I think he could see targets closer to 2016(119) than 2017-2018(69-65) in SD/LA. Over his career his efficiency has been remarkably consistent. 16ypr, 1TD per 10 catches, 60% catch rate, almost exactly each of the last 3 years. If Oakland can get him the targets I think that’s all he needs, and at this point I think he is in line for those targets, and got paid like he will be. 120+ targets and he is solidly a fantasy WR2. 100+ targets puts him as a borderline WR2/3 for sure. 80+ targets and he’s a Possible WR3. 60+ like the last 2 years and he’s back to borderline Flex territory again. I think his o/u will be around 100 targets, depending on who else Raiders add
Bro, you love your stats and I applaud you for doing the research, but I think those are going to look different with Carr throwing instead of Rivers, and in an inferior offense (AB > KA, but MG III >> Raiders run game).

I think you need to knock his projected production down a lot. I would reduce his catch rate and TD rate, leaving YPR more or less the same.

Having said all that, I don't think this was the worst landing spot for him. I think Pitt or Indy might have been better, but not sure where else...
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

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LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby Huh » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:14 am

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:00 am
Elroypedro wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 pm
Hmmm I am not an owner anywhere, but I am seemingly much higher on this signing than others. He is the clear number 2 target behind AB now, and I think he could see targets closer to 2016(119) than 2017-2018(69-65) in SD/LA. Over his career his efficiency has been remarkably consistent. 16ypr, 1TD per 10 catches, 60% catch rate, almost exactly each of the last 3 years. If Oakland can get him the targets I think that’s all he needs, and at this point I think he is in line for those targets, and got paid like he will be. 120+ targets and he is solidly a fantasy WR2. 100+ targets puts him as a borderline WR2/3 for sure. 80+ targets and he’s a Possible WR3. 60+ like the last 2 years and he’s back to borderline Flex territory again. I think his o/u will be around 100 targets, depending on who else Raiders add
Bro, you love your stats and I applaud you for doing the research, but I think those are going to look different with Carr throwing instead of Rivers, and in an inferior offense (AB > KA, but MG III >> Raiders run game).

I think you need to knock his projected production down a lot. I would reduce his catch rate and TD rate, leaving YPR more or less the same.

Having said all that, I don't think this was the worst landing spot for him. I think Pitt or Indy might have been better, but not sure where else...
It’s not a horrible spot, I just had dreams of luck, baker, and sugar plums dancing through my head.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby ArrylT » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:29 am

Huh wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:40 pm
I’ve learned a valuable lesson that Ive been thinking about for a year now. I’ve had the gazelle since the summer before he broke out and held because I was positive greener pastures awaited him once he got to free agency. I started him a lot that year and he rocked it, but it’s been about two years of roster clogging since and now he probably is going to keep doing that. Never again will I hold a player just for the hope of free agency that is years away. Think of all the players I didn’t get to add and then drop a week later because he sat there. I’m going to try and package him to move up in the second. He broke my heart last night.
That alone makes it worthwhile. Lessons learned are valuable. :)
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Re: The gazelle

Postby azthecrow » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:41 am

Huh wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:14 am
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:00 am
Elroypedro wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 pm
Hmmm I am not an owner anywhere, but I am seemingly much higher on this signing than others. He is the clear number 2 target behind AB now, and I think he could see targets closer to 2016(119) than 2017-2018(69-65) in SD/LA. Over his career his efficiency has been remarkably consistent. 16ypr, 1TD per 10 catches, 60% catch rate, almost exactly each of the last 3 years. If Oakland can get him the targets I think that’s all he needs, and at this point I think he is in line for those targets, and got paid like he will be. 120+ targets and he is solidly a fantasy WR2. 100+ targets puts him as a borderline WR2/3 for sure. 80+ targets and he’s a Possible WR3. 60+ like the last 2 years and he’s back to borderline Flex territory again. I think his o/u will be around 100 targets, depending on who else Raiders add
Bro, you love your stats and I applaud you for doing the research, but I think those are going to look different with Carr throwing instead of Rivers, and in an inferior offense (AB > KA, but MG III >> Raiders run game).

I think you need to knock his projected production down a lot. I would reduce his catch rate and TD rate, leaving YPR more or less the same.

Having said all that, I don't think this was the worst landing spot for him. I think Pitt or Indy might have been better, but not sure where else...
It’s not a horrible spot, I just had dreams of luck, baker, and sugar plums dancing through my head.
Right?
Oh well, we will hope for the best, but this is a big let down.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby Elroypedro » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:28 am

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:00 am
Elroypedro wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 pm
Hmmm I am not an owner anywhere, but I am seemingly much higher on this signing than others. He is the clear number 2 target behind AB now, and I think he could see targets closer to 2016(119) than 2017-2018(69-65) in SD/LA. Over his career his efficiency has been remarkably consistent. 16ypr, 1TD per 10 catches, 60% catch rate, almost exactly each of the last 3 years. If Oakland can get him the targets I think that’s all he needs, and at this point I think he is in line for those targets, and got paid like he will be. 120+ targets and he is solidly a fantasy WR2. 100+ targets puts him as a borderline WR2/3 for sure. 80+ targets and he’s a Possible WR3. 60+ like the last 2 years and he’s back to borderline Flex territory again. I think his o/u will be around 100 targets, depending on who else Raiders add
Bro, you love your stats and I applaud you for doing the research, but I think those are going to look different with Carr throwing instead of Rivers, and in an inferior offense (AB > KA, but MG III >> Raiders run game).

I think you need to knock his projected production down a lot. I would reduce his catch rate and TD rate, leaving YPR more or less the same.

Having said all that, I don't think this was the worst landing spot for him. I think Pitt or Indy might have been better, but not sure where else...
Yeah that is totally fair. This was not a robust group of stats, and not a super useful way of using them. It was more just spit balling on my part. The basic point, which again isn't very focused or strongly backed by the numbers, more like casually suggested by them, is that Williams has a pretty good shot to succeed based upon his target volume. Aka his success this year is heavily target dependent, and as of now, at this point of free agency and before the draft, he should be in line to get those targets.
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Re: The gazelle

Postby jetsfan5757 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:57 am

Elroypedro wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:28 am
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:00 am
Elroypedro wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 pm
Hmmm I am not an owner anywhere, but I am seemingly much higher on this signing than others. He is the clear number 2 target behind AB now, and I think he could see targets closer to 2016(119) than 2017-2018(69-65) in SD/LA. Over his career his efficiency has been remarkably consistent. 16ypr, 1TD per 10 catches, 60% catch rate, almost exactly each of the last 3 years. If Oakland can get him the targets I think that’s all he needs, and at this point I think he is in line for those targets, and got paid like he will be. 120+ targets and he is solidly a fantasy WR2. 100+ targets puts him as a borderline WR2/3 for sure. 80+ targets and he’s a Possible WR3. 60+ like the last 2 years and he’s back to borderline Flex territory again. I think his o/u will be around 100 targets, depending on who else Raiders add
Bro, you love your stats and I applaud you for doing the research, but I think those are going to look different with Carr throwing instead of Rivers, and in an inferior offense (AB > KA, but MG III >> Raiders run game).

I think you need to knock his projected production down a lot. I would reduce his catch rate and TD rate, leaving YPR more or less the same.

Having said all that, I don't think this was the worst landing spot for him. I think Pitt or Indy might have been better, but not sure where else...
Yeah that is totally fair. This was not a robust group of stats, and not a super useful way of using them. It was more just spit balling on my part. The basic point, which again isn't very focused or strongly backed by the numbers, more like casually suggested by them, is that Williams has a pretty good shot to succeed based upon his target volume. Aka his success this year is heavily target dependent, and as of now, at this point of free agency and before the draft, he should be in line to get those targets.
:thumbup:
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby Huh » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:39 pm

Bye bye jordy. Looks like there is no wr of consequence that has chemistry with Carr. I feel a little better.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby grandmabetty » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:49 pm

Huh wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:39 pm
Bye bye jordy. Looks like there is no wr of consequence that has chemistry with Carr. I feel a little better.
Barring any additional FA moves or high WR picks I think this makes Williams the unquestioned #2. Working behind Brown I feel better about it. Still don't know if I trust Carr to get him the ball but I think success is there for the taking.
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Re: The gazelle

Postby Phaded » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:51 pm

Don't be surprised if the Raiders grab a WR with one of their 4 picks in the top 35.

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Re: The gazelle

Postby Huh » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:42 pm

Phaded wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:51 pm
Don't be surprised if the Raiders grab a WR with one of their 4 picks in the top 35.
They pretty much have to. Is Seth Roberts still on the team? Ateman? They need a slot guy.


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