It is Mark Ingram Time - Back Home to NO
It is Mark Ingram Time - Back Home to NO
All,
Note: I debated whether this should go in the NFL Prospects Forum. Decided it is strategy not player specific. If it needs to be moved, I understand.
Seems that 'tis the season to bash Ingram. I wanted to suggest a counter argument.
For anyone who hasn't read it, this article is a must read. Probably one of the best things I've read in a while when it comes to the numbers. The WR version is terrific as well.
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2011/i ... istory-rbs
It's very hard to argue with history. What the article shows is that NFL teams know how to select the first RB off the board. Maybe that won't be Ingram (that debate might have some merit). But if it is Ingram, there is no doubt that he is worthy of a high (1.01/1.02) pick. It's not to say that he's a surefire stud - it's to say that the odds of that pick delivering fantasy value become very, very high. Said the other way, he's not at all likely to bust.
The article refers to, but doesn't list, the first RB taken in each NFL draft. Here they are:
Spiller, Moreno, DMC, ADP, Bush, R. Brown, S. Jax, McGahee, Green, LT
Give me those odds any day. Note: If Williams or LeShoure is the first RB off the board, then I'd argue in their favor. And yes, this suggests Spiller was a very safe pick last year as well. I doesn't mean that Mathews was a bad pick, it means that Spiller would have been a good one.
I'm now off to buy a fire suit before returning to see what responses this gets!!
Tim
Note: I debated whether this should go in the NFL Prospects Forum. Decided it is strategy not player specific. If it needs to be moved, I understand.
Seems that 'tis the season to bash Ingram. I wanted to suggest a counter argument.
For anyone who hasn't read it, this article is a must read. Probably one of the best things I've read in a while when it comes to the numbers. The WR version is terrific as well.
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2011/i ... istory-rbs
It's very hard to argue with history. What the article shows is that NFL teams know how to select the first RB off the board. Maybe that won't be Ingram (that debate might have some merit). But if it is Ingram, there is no doubt that he is worthy of a high (1.01/1.02) pick. It's not to say that he's a surefire stud - it's to say that the odds of that pick delivering fantasy value become very, very high. Said the other way, he's not at all likely to bust.
The article refers to, but doesn't list, the first RB taken in each NFL draft. Here they are:
Spiller, Moreno, DMC, ADP, Bush, R. Brown, S. Jax, McGahee, Green, LT
Give me those odds any day. Note: If Williams or LeShoure is the first RB off the board, then I'd argue in their favor. And yes, this suggests Spiller was a very safe pick last year as well. I doesn't mean that Mathews was a bad pick, it means that Spiller would have been a good one.
I'm now off to buy a fire suit before returning to see what responses this gets!!
Tim
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
Great article! I would love to land him...let everyone bash him!!My opinion is it's the pre-draft blues and analysis by paralysis time for scouts and media!!!
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
I like the bashing. Could help me land him at 1.03 in both of my leagues. He hasn't moved from the #1 RB on my board.
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
I agree...let people bash him & slide down the rankings.BeRanDone wrote:I like the bashing. Could help me land him at 1.03 in both of my leagues. He hasn't moved from the #1 RB on my board.
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
It's also the season of misinformation and you can't believe everything you hear or read...everybody's working their agenda this time of year...
Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
Agreed!Al Kohaul wrote:It's also the season of misinformation and you can't believe everything you hear or read...everybody's working their agenda this time of year...
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QB:A Rodgers
WR:Fitz,Nicks,Maclin,Garcon,D.Rodgers
RB:Rice,McCoy,R Mathews,Stacy,Michaels,Hunter,J.Bell,K.Davis,Leshoure,M.James,L.Murray
TE:Cameron,Ertz,A.Robinson
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QB:P Manning,Luck,Mallett
WR:Nicks,D Thomas,Garcon,Thompkins
RB:Rice,Forte,Mathews,Vereen,Helu,K.Davis,L.Murray
TE:Cameron,Rudolph,A.Robinson
QB:A Rodgers
WR:Fitz,Nicks,Maclin,Garcon,D.Rodgers
RB:Rice,McCoy,R Mathews,Stacy,Michaels,Hunter,J.Bell,K.Davis,Leshoure,M.James,L.Murray
TE:Cameron,Ertz,A.Robinson
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QB:P Manning,Luck,Mallett
WR:Nicks,D Thomas,Garcon,Thompkins
RB:Rice,Forte,Mathews,Vereen,Helu,K.Davis,L.Murray
TE:Cameron,Rudolph,A.Robinson
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
Unfortunately, I own the 1.1 and he won't fall to 1.4 for my next pick no matter how much bashing there is out there...unless both Green and Jones go top 10 and Ingram gets drafted behind Leshoure and Williams for some reason. So, I'll be having to draft Ingram #1 overall no matter how much misinformation there is that's flying around.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
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QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.
16 team, No-PPR, 6 pt passing tds
QB: Brady, Schuab, Tannehill
RB: Forte, Charles, Martin, Redman, Carter,R. Jennings, M. Bush, Vereen
WR: Britt, Little, Brown, Wright, Kerley, Sanders, Broyles
TE: Dickson, Cook
K: Zuerlien
DEF: Philidelphia
2013: 2 1sts, 2 2nd
2014: 5 1sts, 1 2nd
QB: Brady, Schuab, Tannehill
RB: Forte, Charles, Martin, Redman, Carter,R. Jennings, M. Bush, Vereen
WR: Britt, Little, Brown, Wright, Kerley, Sanders, Broyles
TE: Dickson, Cook
K: Zuerlien
DEF: Philidelphia
2013: 2 1sts, 2 2nd
2014: 5 1sts, 1 2nd
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
doesn't really matter, ingram is a stud, even if he gets drafted in the 3rd rd, he won't make it past the 1.2 in my draft. i don't know if i would agree with the e smith comparisions, but i see a frank gore type player, great vision, powers, extemley good burst and who wouldn't want a 21 yr old gore type rb on their team
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?Wallace's Warriors wrote:That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.
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10 team $250 cap, 0.5 ppr- QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, flex
QB- Brady ($18/2yrs),Ponder ($5/1yr)
RB- CJ ($25/3yrs), AP($25/2yrs), Spiller ($15/2yrs), Martin ($10/4yrs), L.James($2/4yrs)
WR- Dem Thomas ($41/1yr), Nicks ($20/3yrs), Fitzgerald ($20/2yrs), Tampa Mike ($18/2yrs), Jeffery ($6/3yrs), V.Brown($5/1yr)
TE- Graham ($15/2yrs), Brandon Myers ($1/1yr), Dennis Pitta ($1/1yr)
Picks- 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.9, 2.9
12 team ppr, QB, RB, WR, TE, 4 flexes
QB- Arod, Fitz, Gabbert
RB- Lynch, Spiller, Ridley, Hunter, Gerhart, Goodson, Benson
WR- Fitz, White, Britt, Maclin, Vjax, Little, Jean, Jenkins, Shipley, Easley, Edelman, Gettis, A.Holmes, Lockette, Morgan, R.Wallace
TE- V.Davis, Stocker, J.Thomas, DJ Williams
10 team $250 cap, 0.5 ppr- QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, flex
QB- Brady ($18/2yrs),Ponder ($5/1yr)
RB- CJ ($25/3yrs), AP($25/2yrs), Spiller ($15/2yrs), Martin ($10/4yrs), L.James($2/4yrs)
WR- Dem Thomas ($41/1yr), Nicks ($20/3yrs), Fitzgerald ($20/2yrs), Tampa Mike ($18/2yrs), Jeffery ($6/3yrs), V.Brown($5/1yr)
TE- Graham ($15/2yrs), Brandon Myers ($1/1yr), Dennis Pitta ($1/1yr)
Picks- 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.9, 2.9
12 team ppr, QB, RB, WR, TE, 4 flexes
QB- Arod, Fitz, Gabbert
RB- Lynch, Spiller, Ridley, Hunter, Gerhart, Goodson, Benson
WR- Fitz, White, Britt, Maclin, Vjax, Little, Jean, Jenkins, Shipley, Easley, Edelman, Gettis, A.Holmes, Lockette, Morgan, R.Wallace
TE- V.Davis, Stocker, J.Thomas, DJ Williams
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.Team Canada wrote:whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?Wallace's Warriors wrote:That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.
16 team, No-PPR, 6 pt passing tds
QB: Brady, Schuab, Tannehill
RB: Forte, Charles, Martin, Redman, Carter,R. Jennings, M. Bush, Vereen
WR: Britt, Little, Brown, Wright, Kerley, Sanders, Broyles
TE: Dickson, Cook
K: Zuerlien
DEF: Philidelphia
2013: 2 1sts, 2 2nd
2014: 5 1sts, 1 2nd
QB: Brady, Schuab, Tannehill
RB: Forte, Charles, Martin, Redman, Carter,R. Jennings, M. Bush, Vereen
WR: Britt, Little, Brown, Wright, Kerley, Sanders, Broyles
TE: Dickson, Cook
K: Zuerlien
DEF: Philidelphia
2013: 2 1sts, 2 2nd
2014: 5 1sts, 1 2nd
Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
The only reason he would slide to the 2nd is based on lack of need, nothing more. Had he come out last season, he would have gone in the top 10 instead of Spiller. Also a superior talent to Mathews who was taken at 13. I would comfortably say the chance of him busting regardless of where he is drafted is in the single digits.Wallace's Warriors wrote:I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.Team Canada wrote:whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?Wallace's Warriors wrote:That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
according to the numbers anyone could be a bust. he also said " It’s quite safe to say that the first RB off the board in the NFL draft is going to be a fine fantasy producer. " Since there has been no situation in the last ten years where no RBs have been taken in the 1st round you really dont have any numbers to show for that. The RBs taken 1st in the 2nd rounds of previous drafts were not considered the best of the draft because other RBs were taken before them. Ingram could very well be the 1st RB taken in the 2nd round and 1st RB taken in the draft all together. Sooo imo the numbers you gave us are irrelevant as Ingram's situation is totally different from other RB's taken 1st in the 2nd round if even Ingram slips to the 2nd.Wallace's Warriors wrote:I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.Team Canada wrote:whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?Wallace's Warriors wrote:That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.
Don't bet against Nightmarion...he made me look like a fool
10 team $250 cap, 0.5 ppr- QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, flex
QB- Brady ($18/2yrs),Ponder ($5/1yr)
RB- CJ ($25/3yrs), AP($25/2yrs), Spiller ($15/2yrs), Martin ($10/4yrs), L.James($2/4yrs)
WR- Dem Thomas ($41/1yr), Nicks ($20/3yrs), Fitzgerald ($20/2yrs), Tampa Mike ($18/2yrs), Jeffery ($6/3yrs), V.Brown($5/1yr)
TE- Graham ($15/2yrs), Brandon Myers ($1/1yr), Dennis Pitta ($1/1yr)
Picks- 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.9, 2.9
12 team ppr, QB, RB, WR, TE, 4 flexes
QB- Arod, Fitz, Gabbert
RB- Lynch, Spiller, Ridley, Hunter, Gerhart, Goodson, Benson
WR- Fitz, White, Britt, Maclin, Vjax, Little, Jean, Jenkins, Shipley, Easley, Edelman, Gettis, A.Holmes, Lockette, Morgan, R.Wallace
TE- V.Davis, Stocker, J.Thomas, DJ Williams
10 team $250 cap, 0.5 ppr- QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, flex
QB- Brady ($18/2yrs),Ponder ($5/1yr)
RB- CJ ($25/3yrs), AP($25/2yrs), Spiller ($15/2yrs), Martin ($10/4yrs), L.James($2/4yrs)
WR- Dem Thomas ($41/1yr), Nicks ($20/3yrs), Fitzgerald ($20/2yrs), Tampa Mike ($18/2yrs), Jeffery ($6/3yrs), V.Brown($5/1yr)
TE- Graham ($15/2yrs), Brandon Myers ($1/1yr), Dennis Pitta ($1/1yr)
Picks- 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.9, 2.9
12 team ppr, QB, RB, WR, TE, 4 flexes
QB- Arod, Fitz, Gabbert
RB- Lynch, Spiller, Ridley, Hunter, Gerhart, Goodson, Benson
WR- Fitz, White, Britt, Maclin, Vjax, Little, Jean, Jenkins, Shipley, Easley, Edelman, Gettis, A.Holmes, Lockette, Morgan, R.Wallace
TE- V.Davis, Stocker, J.Thomas, DJ Williams
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Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
Not only that but there hasn't been a situation where two RBs have not been taken in the first round. This is a different type of RB draft and the case for Ingram can't be made by passed picks of other RBs. Therefor the whole argument that the other RBs are studs should be considered irrelevant. IMOTeam Canada wrote:according to the numbers anyone could be a bust. he also said " It’s quite safe to say that the first RB off the board in the NFL draft is going to be a fine fantasy producer. " Since there has been no situation in the last ten years where no RBs have been taken in the 1st round you really dont have any numbers to show for that. The RBs taken 1st in the 2nd rounds of previous drafts were not considered the best of the draft because other RBs were taken before them. Ingram could very well be the 1st RB taken in the 2nd round and 1st RB taken in the draft all together. Sooo imo the numbers you gave us are irrelevant as Ingram's situation is totally different from other RB's taken 1st in the 2nd round if even Ingram slips to the 2nd.Wallace's Warriors wrote:I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.Team Canada wrote: whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?
16 team, No-PPR, 6 pt passing tds
QB: Brady, Schuab, Tannehill
RB: Forte, Charles, Martin, Redman, Carter,R. Jennings, M. Bush, Vereen
WR: Britt, Little, Brown, Wright, Kerley, Sanders, Broyles
TE: Dickson, Cook
K: Zuerlien
DEF: Philidelphia
2013: 2 1sts, 2 2nd
2014: 5 1sts, 1 2nd
QB: Brady, Schuab, Tannehill
RB: Forte, Charles, Martin, Redman, Carter,R. Jennings, M. Bush, Vereen
WR: Britt, Little, Brown, Wright, Kerley, Sanders, Broyles
TE: Dickson, Cook
K: Zuerlien
DEF: Philidelphia
2013: 2 1sts, 2 2nd
2014: 5 1sts, 1 2nd
Re: Ingram Bashing - The Historical View
The lesson is more about the potential of the first RBs off the board, not where they are taken. I think the league is following Belichick's example of not drafting RBs in the 1st, which will likely become a trend until the next mega prospect comes along.Wallace's Warriors wrote:I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.Team Canada wrote:whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?Wallace's Warriors wrote:That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.
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