Safest 2019 Rookies ???

[Prison_Mike]

Broad question and hard to answer prior to seeing the combine & draft/landing spots, but:

Based on what you've seen so far, which players (in your opinion) are locks as viable long-term dynasty assets?
I'm not necessarily speaking to their ceiling, but rather their floor.

Which of the players, particularly at the top of the draft, are safest?
[feel free to list middle-round guys as well since I feel like this is a pretty deep class when it comes to solid-(but not elite)-talent]

[Orenthal Shames]

You're playing the wrong game if you want a bust proof rookie

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

You're playing the wrong game if you want a bust proof rookie

[Prison_Mike]

You're playing the wrong game if you want a bust proof rookie

Fair enough. The better word to use would have been "safest" as opposed to bust-proof haha

This will be my first rookie draft. I don't want to miss with the 1.02 - Starting to think the best course of action with this particular draft class would be to trade it for a proven asset(s) or trade back

Obviously I'll wait & see
And I wouldn't sell it until draft day if that's the route I choose, but was curious about this forum's thoughts on who the safest guys are

[Jigga94]

If you don't want to worry about a rookie busting, trade the pick for proven players. Someone will overpay for that pick

[Pac_Eddy]

My best guess is a first round WR drafted to a team with an elite QB. I've always avoided the first round WRs that go to terrible teams with terrible QBs and felt pretty good about those results.

I'm sure someone will dig up a stat to make that sound foolish, but it's worked for me.

[Cameron Giles]

I think Josh Jacobs and Hollywood Brown have high floors relative to their competition in this class. Jacobs does a little bit of everything, looks explosive, strong, physical, solid receiving skills. Brown has plus separation skills, footwork is very good, runs impressive routes, can win at all 3 levels, and is a big play waiting to happen.

Neither are bust proof, because injuries or whatever can come into play, but they do a lot of things that usually translate.

[Prison_Mike]

My best guess is a first round WR drafted to a team with an elite QB. I've always avoided the first round WRs that go to terrible teams with terrible QBs and felt pretty good about those results.

I'm sure someone will dig up a stat to make that sound foolish, but it's worked for me.

Well said. I was planning on avoiding WRs taken by Baltimore, Buffalo, maybe Washington & Oakland

[IBall2]

My best guess is a first round WR drafted to a team with an elite QB. I've always avoided the first round WRs that go to terrible teams with terrible QBs and felt pretty good about those results.

I'm sure someone will dig up a stat to make that sound foolish, but it's worked for me.

Well said. I was planning on avoiding WRs taken by Baltimore, Buffalo, maybe Washington & Oakland

Jury's still out on Lamar and Josh so I wouldn't actively avoid taking a WR that went to either team but it's definitely a concern. If a WR went to one of those teams, they could pretty easily become the WR1 on the team which is always a plus. Could end up in a Corey Davis type situation which isn't awful, still a safe pick but not a high ceiling.

[Servo]

You're seeing a ton of guys come out that don't have big-time or even above-average collegiate production....and I mean look how much people and analysts are fawning over them. Makes sense why these guys declare, take the opportunity once it presents itself (Justin Herbert lol).

In reality, all rookie drafts are littered with busts so if you want to take that risk out, trade away your picks for players you know that produce. A lot of drafts are predicated on landing spot and this class likely won't be much different.

[purplepride28]

Hollywood brown looks like a stud to me. So does LJ scot

[jaykay22]

Let's get the mandatory disclaimer out of the way that no matter what we can try to do, fantasy football is still very much a crapshoot, even the seemingly safest of all prospects can end up a burned pick

Now with that out of the way, if you're picking at 1.02, assuming a RB like Josh Jacobs goes first, I'd go with whoever ends up on the better offense between Harmon, Harry, and AJB.

[Krypto_King]

I think AJ Brown, TJ Hockenson, David Montgomery have the safest profiles

[Prison_Mike]

Let's get the mandatory disclaimer out of the way that no matter what we can try to do, fantasy football is still very much a crapshoot, even the seemingly safest of all prospects can end up a burned pick

Now with that out of the way, if you're picking at 1.02, assuming a RB like Josh Jacobs goes first, I'd go with whoever ends up on the better offense between Harmon, Harry, and AJB.

I just made a trade. I’m now at 1.06 & 1.12

The guy with the 1.01 has been vocal about taking Jacobs. At least one other guy in the top 5 needs an RB and will take Montgomery.

At this point, I would expect one of the big 3 (Metcalf, Harry, Harmon) to fall to me at 6. And if not, I wouldn’t be mad about AJ Brown or Hollywood there (maybe even Deebo?), depending on situation. Then likely best RB available at 12

[Orenthal Shames]

Let's get the mandatory disclaimer out of the way that no matter what we can try to do, fantasy football is still very much a crapshoot, even the seemingly safest of all prospects can end up a burned pick

Now with that out of the way, if you're picking at 1.02, assuming a RB like Josh Jacobs goes first, I'd go with whoever ends up on the better offense between Harmon, Harry, and AJB.

I just made a trade. I’m now at 1.06 & 1.12

The guy with the 1.01 has been vocal about taking Jacobs. At least one other guy in the top 5 needs an RB and will take Montgomery.

At this point, I would expect one of the big 3 (Metcalf, Harry, Harmon) to fall to me at 6. And if not, I wouldn’t be mad about AJ Brown or Hollywood there (maybe even Deebo?), depending on situation. Then likely best RB available at 12

Did you get anything on top of 1.6 & 1.12?