Saquon Barkley - Dynasty Discussion Thread

[FantasyFreak]

And the 4000 40td (4500,39) qb you speak of was Andrew luck and he scored about 100 less fantasy points. Granted that was on a year coming back from injury so next year could be better. That’s why luck is the other qb we should be gobbling up. Go get baker too.

Sure but the massively odds on favorite is that Mahomes himself will be a 4000/40 type guy at best from year to year. He's just not going to throw for 50+ TDs every year.

Every QB that has ever flirted with a 50 TD season has ended up being a massive sell that offseason.

Qbs don’t flirt with 50. Only the elite even get to 40. It’s so beyond good that it can’t be a fluke. It’s been done twice by players well into their primes. He’s 23. Kids don’t do this. They don’t even throw 30. They are going to lock up hill. They have Watkins and Kelce under contract. They don’t have money to vastly improve the defense. The perfect situation will remain. Mahomes is the next generation alpha that we have been waiting for since luck and he is a baby. He is just better. Sure he’ll have years where he finishes sixth but if he isn’t ranked the number one qb every year for the next decade it’s because he suffered an injury. Dynasty is won by the bold but for some reason we are pumping the brakes on Mahomes. I saw a lot of his games this year and it isn’t a mirage. He’s going to break a lot of records.

He's talented, but I don't agree. The rules have changed. This year offense was off the charts in general. Dan Marino and Mahomes can't be compared, it's a different league now. He's going to break records because of his talent and because they have paved the way for him to do it, but everyobody else's numbers are going up, too. Carr just had his first 4000 yard season with absolutely nobody at WR. Nobody. He was an MVP candidate 2 years ago and didn't even get there (missed the last game or two, but the point stands). Defences will adjust. You can't adjust to left handed completions and raw ability sometimes, but don't I'll bet he doesn't hit 50 next year. 1000 yards receiving isn't what it was even a few years ago. Guys didn't simply just get better all of a sudden. The NFL is pushing offense to the "on the fence fan". The numbers don't mean anything vs the old NFL. He's still the top QB FF wise, but his numbers are inflated by circumstance as well as talent.

[Vcize]

And the 4000 40td (4500,39) qb you speak of was Andrew luck and he scored about 100 less fantasy points. Granted that was on a year coming back from injury so next year could be better. That’s why luck is the other qb we should be gobbling up. Go get baker too.

Sure but the massively odds on favorite is that Mahomes himself will be a 4000/40 type guy at best from year to year. He's just not going to throw for 50+ TDs every year.

Every QB that has ever flirted with a 50 TD season has ended up being a massive sell that offseason.

Qbs don’t flirt with 50. Only the elite even get to 40. It’s so beyond good that it can’t be a fluke. It’s been done twice by players well into their primes. He’s 23. Kids don’t do this. They don’t even throw 30. They are going to lock up hill. They have Watkins and Kelce under contract. They don’t have money to vastly improve the defense. The perfect situation will remain. Mahomes is the next generation alpha that we have been waiting for since luck and he is a baby. He is just better. Sure he’ll have years where he finishes sixth but if he isn’t ranked the number one qb every year for the next decade it’s because he suffered an injury. Dynasty is won by the bold but for some reason we are pumping the brakes on Mahomes. I saw a lot of his games this year and it isn’t a mirage. He’s going to break a lot of records.

Even the greats - Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Luck, all saw their value fall drastically the year after their record fantasy seasons. Beyond the greats, Stafford threw for 5000/41 in his first full season and look where he is now. Matt Ryan set the NFL record for efficiency from QBs just two years ago.

Mahomes can throw for 4500/38 next year and it will be super duper great, but his fantasy value will be a pittance compared to what it is right now if he does. And that is by far the most likely scenario.

[themburns]

I would almost always advocate selling a QB like Mahomes. However, I believe he has a unique trait that none of the other elite QBs have or could possess with all the training in the world. Patrick Mahomes has an Eidetic memory. It is such a rare trait in the human population that there are very few direct comparisons. The two I could easily find were from basketball, both Jerry Lucas and Lebron James are reported to be similarly gifted.

In light of that, I don't feel that defenses will be able to figure out Mahomes long term. The very act of putting a play or look on tape prepares him to see it in game.

[Huh]

Sure but the massively odds on favorite is that Mahomes himself will be a 4000/40 type guy at best from year to year. He's just not going to throw for 50+ TDs every year.

Every QB that has ever flirted with a 50 TD season has ended up being a massive sell that offseason.

Qbs don’t flirt with 50. Only the elite even get to 40. It’s so beyond good that it can’t be a fluke. It’s been done twice by players well into their primes. He’s 23. Kids don’t do this. They don’t even throw 30. They are going to lock up hill. They have Watkins and Kelce under contract. They don’t have money to vastly improve the defense. The perfect situation will remain. Mahomes is the next generation alpha that we have been waiting for since luck and he is a baby. He is just better. Sure he’ll have years where he finishes sixth but if he isn’t ranked the number one qb every year for the next decade it’s because he suffered an injury. Dynasty is won by the bold but for some reason we are pumping the brakes on Mahomes. I saw a lot of his games this year and it isn’t a mirage. He’s going to break a lot of records.

Even the greats - Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Luck, all saw their value fall drastically the year after their record fantasy seasons. Beyond the greats, Stafford threw for 5000/41 in his first full season and look where he is now. Matt Ryan set the NFL record for efficiency from QBs just two years ago.

Mahomes can throw for 4500/38 next year and it will be super duper great, but his fantasy value will be a pittance compared to what it is right now if he does. And that is by far the most likely scenario.

But their value didn’t fall. Their fantasy points fluctuate but their overall value remained. Manning was an aberration because of his age but Rodgers Brady and even Stafford for a few years had insulated value. Mahomes will be worth two or so firsts today and he’ll be worth two or so firsts in a couple years. If you can get something worth more than that do it but unless you are blowing up your team the value will be there so you can be picky.

[maxhyde]

I wouldn't actively be trying to trade him but if I got a godfather offer I suppose I would move on.
Like others have said he is as good a fantasy player as we have seen in the past decade or more I think so trading him as a rebuilder to become more competitive maybe a solid choice but as a contender I see no reason to entertain the thought unless it is an impossibly good deal for you

[Vcize]

Qbs don’t flirt with 50. Only the elite even get to 40. It’s so beyond good that it can’t be a fluke. It’s been done twice by players well into their primes. He’s 23. Kids don’t do this. They don’t even throw 30. They are going to lock up hill. They have Watkins and Kelce under contract. They don’t have money to vastly improve the defense. The perfect situation will remain. Mahomes is the next generation alpha that we have been waiting for since luck and he is a baby. He is just better. Sure he’ll have years where he finishes sixth but if he isn’t ranked the number one qb every year for the next decade it’s because he suffered an injury. Dynasty is won by the bold but for some reason we are pumping the brakes on Mahomes. I saw a lot of his games this year and it isn’t a mirage. He’s going to break a lot of records.

Even the greats - Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Luck, all saw their value fall drastically the year after their record fantasy seasons. Beyond the greats, Stafford threw for 5000/41 in his first full season and look where he is now. Matt Ryan set the NFL record for efficiency from QBs just two years ago.

Mahomes can throw for 4500/38 next year and it will be super duper great, but his fantasy value will be a pittance compared to what it is right now if he does. And that is by far the most likely scenario.

But their value didn’t fall. Their fantasy points fluctuate but their overall value remained. Manning was an aberration because of his age but Rodgers Brady and even Stafford for a few years had insulated value. Mahomes will be worth two or so firsts today and he’ll be worth two or so firsts in a couple years. If you can get something worth more than that do it but unless you are blowing up your team the value will be there so you can be picky.

Luck's startup ADP in the offseason following his big breakout was 1.09. A year later it fell all the way to 3.09, and then 4.03 the year after that. And that was before all the shoulder shenanigans.

Brady's startup ADP after his 50 TD season was 1.05. A year later it was 2.05. Granted he had the knee injury but even with a healthy knee his value never got back to where it was.

Stafford was 1.11 the offseason following his big 5000/41 breakout. Then all the way down at 3.12 the next year, falling off rapidly even more after that.

Rodgers is probably a best case scenario as he followed up his 4800/48 season with another great season that was almost as good, yet his startup ADP still dropped 10 spots from 1.02 to 1.12 and never sniffed the early 1st again.

[Huh]

Even the greats - Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Luck, all saw their value fall drastically the year after their record fantasy seasons. Beyond the greats, Stafford threw for 5000/41 in his first full season and look where he is now. Matt Ryan set the NFL record for efficiency from QBs just two years ago.

Mahomes can throw for 4500/38 next year and it will be super duper great, but his fantasy value will be a pittance compared to what it is right now if he does. And that is by far the most likely scenario.

But their value didn’t fall. Their fantasy points fluctuate but their overall value remained. Manning was an aberration because of his age but Rodgers Brady and even Stafford for a few years had insulated value. Mahomes will be worth two or so firsts today and he’ll be worth two or so firsts in a couple years. If you can get something worth more than that do it but unless you are blowing up your team the value will be there so you can be picky.

Luck's startup ADP in the offseason following his big breakout was 1.09. A year later it fell all the way to 3.09, and then 4.03 the year after that. And that was before all the shoulder shenanigans.

Brady's startup ADP after his 50 TD season was 1.05. A year later it was 2.05. Granted he had the knee injury but even with a healthy knee his value never got back to where it was.

Stafford was 1.11 the offseason following his big 5000/41 breakout. Then all the way down at 3.12 the next year, falling off rapidly even more after that.

Rodgers is probably a best case scenario as he followed up his 4800/48 season with another great season that was almost as good, yet his startup ADP still dropped 10 spots from 1.02 to 1.12 and never sniffed the early 1st again.

Ugh I stand corrected. I was working off memory which is apparently unreliable. If we can get first round startup value for Mahomes then let’s do it. In my mind he would be late second early third which I feel is top value for him.

[Patsfan86]

But their value didn’t fall. Their fantasy points fluctuate but their overall value remained. Manning was an aberration because of his age but Rodgers Brady and even Stafford for a few years had insulated value. Mahomes will be worth two or so firsts today and he’ll be worth two or so firsts in a couple years. If you can get something worth more than that do it but unless you are blowing up your team the value will be there so you can be picky.

Luck's startup ADP in the offseason following his big breakout was 1.09. A year later it fell all the way to 3.09, and then 4.03 the year after that. And that was before all the shoulder shenanigans.

Brady's startup ADP after his 50 TD season was 1.05. A year later it was 2.05. Granted he had the knee injury but even with a healthy knee his value never got back to where it was.

Stafford was 1.11 the offseason following his big 5000/41 breakout. Then all the way down at 3.12 the next year, falling off rapidly even more after that.

Rodgers is probably a best case scenario as he followed up his 4800/48 season with another great season that was almost as good, yet his startup ADP still dropped 10 spots from 1.02 to 1.12 and never sniffed the early 1st again.

Ugh I stand corrected. I was working off memory which is apparently unreliable. If we can get first round startup value for Mahomes then let’s do it. In my mind he would be late second early third which I feel is top value for him.

Now that you see this laid out before you Huh are you still willing to bet Mahomes value will stay the same? By saying yes you are in a way also saying Mahomes is better than Brady and Rodgers.

[ajf235]

Even the greats - Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Luck, all saw their value fall drastically the year after their record fantasy seasons. Beyond the greats, Stafford threw for 5000/41 in his first full season and look where he is now. Matt Ryan set the NFL record for efficiency from QBs just two years ago.

Mahomes can throw for 4500/38 next year and it will be super duper great, but his fantasy value will be a pittance compared to what it is right now if he does. And that is by far the most likely scenario.

But their value didn’t fall. Their fantasy points fluctuate but their overall value remained. Manning was an aberration because of his age but Rodgers Brady and even Stafford for a few years had insulated value. Mahomes will be worth two or so firsts today and he’ll be worth two or so firsts in a couple years. If you can get something worth more than that do it but unless you are blowing up your team the value will be there so you can be picky.

Luck's startup ADP in the offseason following his big breakout was 1.09. A year later it fell all the way to 3.09, and then 4.03 the year after that. And that was before all the shoulder shenanigans.

Brady's startup ADP after his 50 TD season was 1.05. A year later it was 2.05. Granted he had the knee injury but even with a healthy knee his value never got back to where it was.

Stafford was 1.11 the offseason following his big 5000/41 breakout. Then all the way down at 3.12 the next year, falling off rapidly even more after that.

Rodgers is probably a best case scenario as he followed up his 4800/48 season with another great season that was almost as good, yet his startup ADP still dropped 10 spots from 1.02 to 1.12 and never sniffed the early 1st again.

I assume this is first round dynasty pick in a startup, not first round draft picks. If so, who are all these idiots paying firsts for QBs? I just don’t get it. Mahomes isn’t and never will be worth a first imo, unless he starts consistently throwing 20+ TDs more than everyone else in the league.

[Huh]

Luck's startup ADP in the offseason following his big breakout was 1.09. A year later it fell all the way to 3.09, and then 4.03 the year after that. And that was before all the shoulder shenanigans.

Brady's startup ADP after his 50 TD season was 1.05. A year later it was 2.05. Granted he had the knee injury but even with a healthy knee his value never got back to where it was.

Stafford was 1.11 the offseason following his big 5000/41 breakout. Then all the way down at 3.12 the next year, falling off rapidly even more after that.

Rodgers is probably a best case scenario as he followed up his 4800/48 season with another great season that was almost as good, yet his startup ADP still dropped 10 spots from 1.02 to 1.12 and never sniffed the early 1st again.

Ugh I stand corrected. I was working off memory which is apparently unreliable. If we can get first round startup value for Mahomes then let’s do it. In my mind he would be late second early third which I feel is top value for him.

Now that you see this laid out before you Huh are you still willing to bet Mahomes value will stay the same? By saying yes you are in a way also saying Mahomes is better than Brady and Rodgers.

If his value is truly top twelve startup it will go down, so I give permission to sell at that price. And I do believe he was a better prospect than Brady and arodg coming out and he is a better qb then them today. I thought he should have been the first pick in that draft and the fact that a playoff team was able to trade up to pick ten or whatever it was for him says a lot about the quality of scouting in the nfl.

[fakespike13]

I’d like to trade for Barkley to pair him up with Kamara. I Twitter polled some potential proposals and I think the price might be too high. For instance I put up Fournette+Lindsay+Golladay or Fournette+Lindsay+Lockett+1st for Barkley and the results were like 80 to 20% in favor of Barkley. Anything much greater than that price and it’s probably not worth it to my team.

[Jigga94]

I’d like to trade for Barkley to pair him up with Kamara. I Twitter polled some potential proposals and I think the price might be too high. For instance I put up Fournette+Lindsay+Golladay or Fournette+Lindsay+Lockett+1st for Barkley and the results were like 80 to 20% in favor of Barkley. Anything much greater than that price and it’s probably not worth it to my team.

I wouldn't give up Barkley for all those random pieces either

[RAB]

I recently traded Barkley in a different dynasty league I'm in for Tyreek, Evans, Aaron Jones and a 2020 1st. Seems like a smash accept offer right? It took me a week to accept that offer. If you own Barkley you just dont want to trade him. He's almost the perfect dynasty player. Stud on the field, young, low risk off the field, everything. If you dont own Barkley you dont get that. The value is on the package side pretty easily but I still hesitated for way too long because it Barkley

[jenkins.math]

I recently traded Barkley in a different dynasty league I'm in for Tyreek, Evans, Aaron Jones and a 2020 1st. Seems like a smash accept offer right? It took me a week to accept that offer. If you own Barkley you just dont want to trade him. He's almost the perfect dynasty player. Stud on the field, young, low risk off the field, everything. If you dont own Barkley you dont get that. The value is on the package side pretty easily but I still hesitated for way too long because it Barkley

I'm assuming that is Mike Evans? If so, yeah I would move Barkley for that package and I think that is a great return for Barkley.

[Bot101]

I recently traded Barkley in a different dynasty league I'm in for Tyreek, Evans, Aaron Jones and a 2020 1st. Seems like a smash accept offer right? It took me a week to accept that offer. If you own Barkley you just dont want to trade him. He's almost the perfect dynasty player. Stud on the field, young, low risk off the field, everything. If you dont own Barkley you dont get that. The value is on the package side pretty easily but I still hesitated for way too long because it Barkley

Yes I think thats a smash accept. I recently traded Barkley/Godwin for Evans/Chubb/2.06 (16th overall). So your return was even better than mine!