Damien Williams - convince me

[Jfever]

Me too. Stats can be spun to fit many situations and to portray or support one's point of view. As a few have stated above, there are many variables that contribute to rb success. With that in mind, one cannot compare ypc of rb A vs rb B who was surrounded by different personnel, different situations, different play calling, & different environments in general as - This isn't comparing apples to apples folks. IN that sense, I firmly side with Valhalla. I do agree that Williams looked good in a small sample size with an elite offense, with the one of the best run blocking O-lines in teh league, the best TE in the league, one of the top 5 wr in the league, and an elite up and coming Mahomes behind center and with A.Reid driving the car. Put a healthy Hyde in that equation and I'm confident his production and stats look remarkably better. I wouldn't invest heavily in either one at this point in time. I'm guessing that many who may be very confident in Williams being a major contributor in 2019 are doing so out of Cheifs fandom or ownership bias. Other wise, how would one justify the confidence in the face of the unknown. Hyde is a real threat, and in my opinion, there is at least a real good shot at full blown rbbc. In this case, I believe Williams still holds value, just not rb1 type value. For Rb in the NFL there are very few certainties and I wouldn't say with certainty that D.Williams is locked in to any guaranteed rb1 type production at this point in time. The situation is murky and it got a little murkier with the addition of Hyde. I expect the Chiefs to bring in a rookie in the draft and even if that rookie is drafted in say round 4-5, that player would further muddy the waters.

[Phaded]

The biggest benefit for Williams, Hyde and whoever else they pickup is that this offense is ridiculous.

As a defense, you are going to try to slow down Mahomes, Hill, Kelce and even Watkins to a lesser extent.

That running back is going to have an opportunity to run all over and not face many stacked boxes. You gotta cover those 3 guys and probably spy Mahomes. Then whatever other guys are lined up.

[TB3falcons]

I’d be more worried that Morse just left the team.

[Jfever]

Losing their starting center can’t be spun as a good thing for their offense.

[Elroypedro]

Follow up on some Hyde stats:


1) From what I can tell Hyde’s 2017 receiving performance was indeed the worst ever for a skill position player in modern NFL history on his level of target volume. I don’t know how to search exactly for those parameters but currently I can’t find any season even close to as bad. A reminder on his receiving numbers that year:

88 targets, 59 receptions, 10 drops, 350 yards, 5.9 ypr, 0 TDs.

That led the NFL in drops and drop percentage(13.2%) for RBs in 2017. Not only was he the worst pass catching back with the worst hands in 2017, he likely was the worst that year in modern NFL history. And, to top that off, almost all of his receptions were dump offs, swing passes, and screens. Virtually no actual routes run that could possibly excuse the drops/drop percentage. And virtually no yards after the catch.


2) In 2017 Hyde was far and away the worst pass blocking back in the NFL, also putting in one of the worst pass blocking efforts for an RB in modern NFL history. His pass blocking efficiency was 90%, which sounds good, until you realize that that means that 1 out of every 10 snaps that he is in during a pass play results in a sack, hit, or pressure. He gave up the most pressures in the league at the RB position with 13 attributed specifically to him. PFF has his pass blocking grade in 2017 at 28.3. That is 46th out of 46 backs that qualify.

Highest graded backs are:
DeMarco Murray 83.9
CJ Anderson 83.4
 Marshawn Lynch 81
Jamaal Williams 80

Lowest graded backs, and only ones under 40 grade, are:
Melvin Gordon 39.5
Matt Forte 39.3
TJ Yeldon 39.1
Carlos Hyde 28.3
[Hyde’s 2018 grade is similarly awful at 34. D Williams is a well above average 67.]

Hyde is far and away the worst pass blocking RB in the league the last 2 years.

[Jfever]

I know of your propensity to take things personal. I'm not attempting to create a straw man here and I am not attempting to get into some pissing match that gets into personal attacks on post quality and the like.

I very much appreciate the time that you take to post the selected stats that you share. Seriously, it is impressive. I will simply add that the players that surround the player (Hyde) that you are looking into, have a fairly significant impact on these statistics. The drops, the low ypr, each are directly related to the lack of other legit / consistent receiving options and of the passer himself, as well as a result of player personnel at the line, all along with play calling tendencies of the offensive system, AND the players health itself. So, to be short and to the point, the stats can SEEM like they make an argument, but, the reality of it is, if you understand the origin and the variables associated with any statistical collection, you then have an idea of the statistics credibility.

In this case, it looks nice but it means less than I think you think it does.

[Elroypedro]

I know of your propensity to take things personal. I'm not attempting to create a straw man here and I am not attempting to get into some pissing match that gets into personal attacks on post quality and the like.

I very much appreciate the time that you take to post the selected stats that you share. Seriously, it is impressive. I will simply add that the players that surround the player (Hyde) that you are looking into, have a fairly significant impact on these statistics. The drops, the low ypr, each are directly related to the lack of other legit / consistent receiving options and of the passer himself, as well as a result of player personnel at the line, all along with play calling tendencies of the offensive system, AND the players health itself. So, to be short and to the point, the stats can SEEM like they make an argument, but, the reality of it is, if you understand the origin and the variables associated with any statistical collection, you then have an idea of the statistics credibility.

In this case, it looks nice but it means less than I think you think it does.

I am not taking things personally. It just gets annoying to be constantly trolled here by low effort posters who lash out at facts they don’t like.

As has been posted previously, comparing Hyde to every other back he has shared time with the last 2 years shows Hyde is deficient in each measurable statistical category compared to those playing in the same scheme behind the same players at the same time. Beyond that, defense adjusted metrics show him to be below backup level as a runner the last two years statistically, ranking in the 60s and 70s in terms of DVOA and DYAR. And the pass catching and blocking numbers suggest he is even below below backup level in those areas.

These on field stats are not twisted, and back the reality we have seen off the field as well: released by 49ers, signed by Browns, made backup after 5 games, traded after 1 more to Jax, cut by Jax at end of season, signed for significantly worse contract than 2nd/3rd string level player Mike Davis 1 day apart.

[Ice]

Hyde is a big back at 230 Lbs. He doesn't catch well but that is not why they signed hm. He may be a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type but My guess is KC looked at the fact he faced a ton of 8 man fronts and still moved the pile. Every team wants a power back on short yardage and goal to goal situations. Given the system in KC it is really hard to stack the box and Hyde, not matter one thinks is effective in shotgun formations. Not every team has a Zeke type and KC fired Hunt who fit multiple roles.

He hasn't been fantasy relevant in years but NFL wise, this signing makes sense on many levels. He doesn't get paid much but he is a one dimensional specialty role type player the Chiefs need today. He is now most likely the Chiefs version of L. Blount but a bit better out of the shotgun which the Chiefs love to run.

If one wants to do stats on him, in this case, I would recommend looking at stats with what they signed him to actually be in this system.

[Elroypedro]

Hyde is a big back at 230 Lbs. He doesn't catch well but that is not why they signed hm. He may be a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type but My guess is KC looked at the fact he faced a ton of 8 man fronts and still moved the pile. Every team want a power back on short yardage and goal to goal situations. Given the system in KC is is really hard to stack the box and Hyde, not matter one thinks is effective in shotgun formations. Not every team has a Zeke and KC fired Hunt who fit multiple roles.

He hasn't been fantasy relevant in years but NFL wise, this signing makes sense on many levels.

If one wants to do stats on him, in this case, I would recommend looking at stats with what they signed him to actually be in this system.

Average defenders in box, Stacked front carry %, Shotgun carry %, Under center carry %

Carlos Hyde
7.3, 40.7%(2.7ypc), 30.8%(3.5ypc), 69.2%(3.2ypc)

Nick Chubb
7.1, 29.2%(4.5ypc), 27.1%(5.8ypc), 72.9%(5.0ypc)

Matt Breida
6.8, 24.8%(4.4ypc), 18.6%(4.0ypc), 80.4%(5.6ypc)

Leonard Fournette
7.2, 36.1%(3.0ypc), 27.1%(4.4ypc), 72.9%(2.9ypc)

T.J. Yeldon
6.8, 25.0%(4.6ypc), 57.7%(4.2ypc), 42.3%(3.8ypc)


Hyde isn’t great against extra defenders, and he isn’t great out of shotgun. If you’ve never watched Hyde you could be excused for thinking he is a power back because of his weight but he isn’t. At one point his main(and only real) skill was breaking tackles and yards after contact. That wasn’t power from him, it was elusiveness and strength. He had a high elusiveness rating as late as 2016-17 making him an above average overall runner then. But now he doesn’t even have that. As you can see above, he did face slightly more stacked boxes leading to barely more men in the box on average than the other backs he played with, but at the same time he was significantly worse than each of those backs in every situation except for Fournette under center. And as mentioned in previous posts, when controlling for defense as well he was very bad, and far behind these other players playing in the same offenses as him, in virtually every measurable metric.

[Ice]

Hyde is a big back at 230 Lbs. He doesn't catch well but that is not why they signed hm. He may be a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type but My guess is KC looked at the fact he faced a ton of 8 man fronts and still moved the pile. Every team wants a power back on short yardage and goal to goal situations. Given the system in KC is is really hard to stack the box and Hyde, no matter one thinks is effective in shotgun formations. Not every team has a Zeke and KC fired Hunt who fit multiple roles.

He hasn't been fantasy relevant in years but NFL wise, this signing makes sense on many levels.

If one wants to do stats on him, in this case, I would recommend looking at stats with what they signed him to actually be in this system.

Average defenders in box, Stacked front carry %, Shotgun carry %, Under center carry %

Carlos Hyde
7.3, 40.7%(2.7ypc), 30.8%(3.5ypc), 69.2%(3.2ypc)

Nick Chubb
7.1, 29.2%(4.5ypc), 27.1%(5.8ypc), 72.9%(5.0ypc)

Matt Breida
6.8, 24.8%(4.4ypc), 18.6%(4.0ypc), 80.4%(5.6ypc)

Leonard Fournette
7.2, 36.1%(3.0ypc), 27.1%(4.4ypc), 72.9%(2.9ypc)

T.J. Yeldon
6.8, 25.0%(4.6ypc), 57.7%(4.2ypc), 42.3%(3.8ypc)


Hyde isn’t great against extra defenders, and he isn’t great out of shotgun. If you’ve never watched Hyde you could be excused for thinking he is a power back because of his weight but he isn’t. At one point his main(and only real) skill was breaking tackles and yards after contact. That wasn’t power from him, it was elusively and strength. He had a high elusively rating as late as 2016-17 making him an above average overall runner then. But now he doesn’t even have that. As you can see above, he did face slightly more stacked boxes leading to barely more men in the box on average than the other backs he played with, but at the same time he was significantly worse than each of those backs in every situation except for Fournette under center. And as mentioned in previous posts, when controlling for defense as well he was very bad, and far behind these other players playing in the same offenses as him, in virtually every measurable metric.

Where did I say Hyde was great against extra defenders? I could have told you he wasn't Chubb or Fournette. he was replaced there. Those two are front line RB's and like I said, not every team doesn't have a Zeke type.

Hyde fills a particular role and your stats bear that out. His is a very low cost option.

FYI, I have analyzed Hyde in depth. Never had a first round grade on him, never drafted him, but it is obvious why KC signed him. He fits a role within a scheme. nothing more.

FYI there is a huge difference between GREAT and effective especially when looked at it in context.

[Elroypedro]

Oh and here is Damien Williams, just for comparison.

Average defenders in box, Stacked front carry %, Shotgun carry %, Under center carry %

6.4, 14.0%(6.6ypc), 56%(5.4ypc), 42%(5.0ypc)

So significantly less stacked boxes but even with stacked boxes absolutely excelled. And, he demolished Kareem Hunt in similar situations. Whereas Williams was his best by far, Hunt crumbled versus defenders in the box:

6.6, 19.3%(2.3ypc), 68%(5.4ypc), 32%(2.7ypc)

So it clearly wasn’t just the offense propping up Williams, when he way outperformed Hunt as a runner, at least equaled him as a passer, and was a better blocker than Hunt by a mile(Hunts by far biggest weakness as a player).

[Elroypedro]

Hyde is a big back at 230 Lbs. He doesn't catch well but that is not why they signed hm. He may be a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type but My guess is KC looked at the fact he faced a ton of 8 man fronts and still moved the pile. Every team wants a power back on short yardage and goal to goal situations. Given the system in KC is is really hard to stack the box and Hyde, no matter one thinks is effective in shotgun formations. Not every team has a Zeke and KC fired Hunt who fit multiple roles.

He hasn't been fantasy relevant in years but NFL wise, this signing makes sense on many levels.

If one wants to do stats on him, in this case, I would recommend looking at stats with what they signed him to actually be in this system.

Average defenders in box, Stacked front carry %, Shotgun carry %, Under center carry %

Carlos Hyde
7.3, 40.7%(2.7ypc), 30.8%(3.5ypc), 69.2%(3.2ypc)

Nick Chubb
7.1, 29.2%(4.5ypc), 27.1%(5.8ypc), 72.9%(5.0ypc)

Matt Breida
6.8, 24.8%(4.4ypc), 18.6%(4.0ypc), 80.4%(5.6ypc)

Leonard Fournette
7.2, 36.1%(3.0ypc), 27.1%(4.4ypc), 72.9%(2.9ypc)

T.J. Yeldon
6.8, 25.0%(4.6ypc), 57.7%(4.2ypc), 42.3%(3.8ypc)


Hyde isn’t great against extra defenders, and he isn’t great out of shotgun. If you’ve never watched Hyde you could be excused for thinking he is a power back because of his weight but he isn’t. At one point his main(and only real) skill was breaking tackles and yards after contact. That wasn’t power from him, it was elusively and strength. He had a high elusively rating as late as 2016-17 making him an above average overall runner then. But now he doesn’t even have that. As you can see above, he did face slightly more stacked boxes leading to barely more men in the box on average than the other backs he played with, but at the same time he was significantly worse than each of those backs in every situation except for Fournette under center. And as mentioned in previous posts, when controlling for defense as well he was very bad, and far behind these other players playing in the same offenses as him, in virtually every measurable metric.

Where did I say Hyde was great against extra defenders? I could have told you he wasn't Chubb or Fournette. he was replaced there. Those two are front line RB's and like I said, not every team doesn't have a Zeke type.

Hyde fills a particular role and your stats bear that out. His is a very low cost option.

FYI, I have analyzed Hyde in depth. Never had a first round grade on him, never drafted him, but it is obvious why KC signed him. He fits a role within a scheme. nothing more.

Yes, agreed. I believe the tape, the stats, the off field progression of his career, and the contract he signed points to that role being veteran safety net 2nd/3rd stringer. I believe the move points towards D Williams being the starter, with competition for that starting role being brought in in the draft(I wouldn’t even rule out an early round pick like some others), and that Hyde is firmly behind those two. But the draft and what type/level of rookie they will bring in really is one big question mark that we have to wait for at this point.

[Valhalla]

Follow up on some Hyde stats:


1) From what I can tell Hyde’s 2017 receiving performance was indeed the worst ever for a skill position player in modern NFL history on his level of target volume. I don’t know how to search exactly for those parameters but currently I can’t find any season even close to as bad. A reminder on his receiving numbers that year:

88 targets, 59 receptions, 10 drops, 350 yards, 5.9 ypr, 0 TDs.

That led the NFL in drops and drop percentage(13.2%) for RBs in 2017. Not only was he the worst pass catching back with the worst hands in 2017, he likely was the worst that year in modern NFL history. And, to top that off, almost all of his receptions were dump offs, swing passes, and screens. Virtually no actual routes run that could possibly excuse the drops/drop percentage. And virtually no yards after the catch.

The underlined really helps write this narrative. If you allow a lower but still significant target volume in, you will see that Matt Breida, Hyde teammate RB in 2017, also had abysmally bad receiving stats. Hyde caught a pretty poor 67% of his targets (yes, this is poor for a RB); Breida caught a much worse 58.3% of his passes. As for the drops...where are you seeing 10 drops? I'm not finding this. I'm finding 6 drops from Hyde, 5 drops from Breida (on WAY less targets than Hyde). Kittle also dropped a bunch that year. The 49ers led the league in drops. It's funny...the year AFTER that year, Breida was WAY more efficient as a pass catcher, as was Kittle. MAYBE Hyde's struggles with his receiving stats had something to do with how well delivered those passes were in 2017...as all of Hyde, Breida, and Kittle (and the WRs to be honest) were inefficent...and Hyde was not the least efficent of the group. The ONLY REASON you can say that Hyde leads the list in these historical numbers is because you are drawing a target thresshold. If you look at the 2017 49ers as a whole, something was wrong with the entire passing game. Somehow, magically, Kittle and Breida both became far more efficient with their targets in 2018. It must have been because Hyde and his cloud of stink left and not at all due to other circumstances (like the quality of the passes).

2) In 2017 Hyde was far and away the worst pass blocking back in the NFL, also putting in one of the worst pass blocking efforts for an RB in modern NFL history. His pass blocking efficiency was 90%, which sounds good, until you realize that that means that 1 out of every 10 snaps that he is in during a pass play results in a sack, hit, or pressure. He gave up the most pressures in the league at the RB position with 13 attributed specifically to him. PFF has his pass blocking grade in 2017 at 28.3. That is 46th out of 46 backs that qualify.
...

The underlined, again, is a crucial part here. It is exceedingly difficult to be a proficient pass blocker when either your team is predictable and isn't blocking well as a whole, or when the QB isn't proficient at getting rid of the ball and avoiding those hurries and sacks. The 49ers didn't have the WRs to get open quickly, and didn't have the QB to find those tight windows quickly and get rid of the ball. That naturally leads to more hurries, more sacks.
I'm not saying Hyde is great in pass protection. I'm just saying, ranking RBs based on how many sacks they gave up...well it's a team game. If the pressures are not dependably coming from the same spot (because the OL is letting guys through somewhat unreliably), that makes it more difficult on the RB to pick up the blitzer. If the QB doesn't have a rapid read and rapid release (and the WRs to provide the window rapidly), that makes it harder on a RB to grade out well.

You must understand how circumstance can wreck how a player grades out.

I'm not even going to give Hyde the "benefit of doubt" that he's a decent blocker. I'm assuming he isn't great at it. But to definitively say he's the worst based on these grading methods is quite flawed. It's FAR EASIER to pass block for Tom Brady than it is for Beathard.

[Elroypedro]

Follow up on some Hyde stats:


1) From what I can tell Hyde’s 2017 receiving performance was indeed the worst ever for a skill position player in modern NFL history on his level of target volume. I don’t know how to search exactly for those parameters but currently I can’t find any season even close to as bad. A reminder on his receiving numbers that year:

88 targets, 59 receptions, 10 drops, 350 yards, 5.9 ypr, 0 TDs.

That led the NFL in drops and drop percentage(13.2%) for RBs in 2017. Not only was he the worst pass catching back with the worst hands in 2017, he likely was the worst that year in modern NFL history. And, to top that off, almost all of his receptions were dump offs, swing passes, and screens. Virtually no actual routes run that could possibly excuse the drops/drop percentage. And virtually no yards after the catch.

The underlined really helps write this narrative. If you allow a lower but still significant target volume in, you will see that Matt Breida, Hyde teammate RB in 2017, also had abysmally bad receiving stats. Hyde caught a pretty poor 67% of his targets (yes, this is poor for a RB); Breida caught a much worse 58.3% of his passes. As for the drops...where are you seeing 10 drops? I'm not finding this. I'm finding 6 drops from Hyde, 5 drops from Breida (on WAY less targets than Hyde). Kittle also dropped a bunch that year. The 49ers led the league in drops. It's funny...the year AFTER that year, Breida was WAY more efficient as a pass catcher, as was Kittle. MAYBE Hyde's struggles with his receiving stats had something to do with how well delivered those passes were in 2017...as all of Hyde, Breida, and Kittle (and the WRs to be honest) were inefficent...and Hyde was not the least efficent of the group. The ONLY REASON you can say that Hyde leads the list in these historical numbers is because you are drawing a target thresshold. If you look at the 2017 49ers as a whole, something was wrong with the entire passing game. Somehow, magically, Kittle and Breida both became far more efficient with their targets in 2018. It must have been because Hyde and his cloud of stink left and not at all due to other circumstances (like the quality of the passes).

2) In 2017 Hyde was far and away the worst pass blocking back in the NFL, also putting in one of the worst pass blocking efforts for an RB in modern NFL history. His pass blocking efficiency was 90%, which sounds good, until you realize that that means that 1 out of every 10 snaps that he is in during a pass play results in a sack, hit, or pressure. He gave up the most pressures in the league at the RB position with 13 attributed specifically to him. PFF has his pass blocking grade in 2017 at 28.3. That is 46th out of 46 backs that qualify.
...

The underlined, again, is a crucial part here. It is exceedingly difficult to be a proficient pass blocker when either your team is predictable and isn't blocking well as a whole, or when the QB isn't proficient at getting rid of the ball and avoiding those hurries and sacks. The 49ers didn't have the WRs to get open quickly, and didn't have the QB to find those tight windows quickly and get rid of the ball. That naturally leads to more hurries, more sacks.
I'm not saying Hyde is great in pass protection. I'm just saying, ranking RBs based on how many sacks they gave up...well it's a team game. If the pressures are not dependably coming from the same spot (because the OL is letting guys through somewhat unreliably), that makes it more difficult on the RB to pick up the blitzer. If the QB doesn't have a rapid read and rapid release (and the WRs to provide the window rapidly), that makes it harder on a RB to grade out well.

You must understand how circumstance can wreck how a player grades out.

I'm not even going to give Hyde the "benefit of doubt" that he's a decent blocker. I'm assuming he isn't great at it. But to definitively say he's the worst based on these grading methods is quite flawed. It's FAR EASIER to pass block for Tom Brady than it is for Beathard.

Hyde graded out as one of the worst pass blockers in the league this year as well. Let’s say he is not the absolute worst(just close to it), and that SF, Cle, and Jax were all somehow horrible situations for him and caused him to be worse than every other back at blocking, even the other backs o those teams. Well, what’s important is comparing him to D Williams. D Williams graded very high this year. Was that circumstance based on his situation in KC? Hunt graded very low, so that is exceedingly unlikely.

Basically, Hyde is a poor pass blocker. Williams is good. How poor(I believe very very poor) and how good(I believe above average) is just semantics, but it is clear one is significantly better than the other, regardless of situation.

[Valhalla]

I'm not saying your posts are invalid. I'm just pointing out the flaws...because you are painting Hyde as a "below replacement level" player, and I don't agree with that.