Damien Williams - convince me

[knotts4372]

Andy Reid appeared on the @SiriusXMNFL Training Camp tour and said to expect an RBBC in the Chiefs backfield this season. Along with Damien Williams, he pointed out the play of Darrell Williams and also mentioned Carlos Hyde.

Well yeah, when was it ever assumed that Williams was going to be a bellcow, as opposed to someone who gets the most touches in a committee?

It is so painfully stupid, and it is just wild grasping at semantic straws. Every piece of evidence we have suggests Damien Williams will be the starter and will get 19-20 touches per game. Period.

you thinking this is painfully stupid imo

[Cameron Giles]

The hate for this guy is out of control in this thread. I am hoping he becomes an RB1 just to spite everyone with unreasonable hatred of Williams

Yeah, what's so unreasonable about hating a 27 year old career backup who was just thrown into the fire in KC last year in a desperate situation, and also has an injury plus a veteran starter behind him on the depth chart? SO UNREASONABLE.

Also a guy coming in with fresh legs against defenses that were already getting beat up for 13 weeks last year

These excuses are getting really bad.

[FantasyDumDum]

Well yeah, when was it ever assumed that Williams was going to be a bellcow, as opposed to someone who gets the most touches in a committee?

It is so painfully stupid, and it is just wild grasping at semantic straws. Every piece of evidence we have suggests Damien Williams will be the starter and will get 19-20 touches per game. Period.

you thinking this is painfully stupid imo

Hmm. Your avatar is the universal online symbol for trolling and you are in this thread trolling.

[TheNuts]

I don't see why Williams couldn't handle a full season of work. We assume rookies can, right? No reason Williams, a seasoned veteran can't

[Cameron Giles]

Do people really think that Williams can efficiently handle 300+ touches over the course of a season.. AND remain healthy doing it?

I don't think he'll get 300 touches if he's healthy. Only 5 players did last season. I'd guess he's around 240-260.

But, I don't know why we're acting like he's a frail player at 5'11, 225. Hunt was 5'11, 215. Kamara is 5'10, 215. McCaffrey last year was 5'10, 205. Elliott is 6'0, 225. Size isn't the issue for him. His injury risk isn't any different than your typical RB.

[FantasyDumDum]

Do people really think that Williams can efficiently handle 300+ touches over the course of a season.. AND remain healthy doing it?

I don't think he'll get 300 touches if he's healthy. Only 5 players did last season. I'd guess he's around 240-260.

But, I don't know why we're acting like he's a frail player at 5'11, 225

All data points to a range of 300-330 touches containing the VAST majority of likely outcomes in terms of touches for D Williams if he plays 16 games.

The best projected touches per game for Williams is in the 19-20 range, aka 304-320 touches.

There isn’t any reason to think otherwise, besides completely made up, fabricated, feel good narrative.

[Phaded]

I should clarify what I meant - nothing suggests that his body can handle the workload of an 18-20 touches per game (as has been mentioned) for the entire year. I was not necessarily saying he is not durable - he may or may not be. We will see.

I think the Chiefs would be wise to give him 12-14 touches tops per game so he is not completely worn down when it matters.

[Cameron Giles]

Do people really think that Williams can efficiently handle 300+ touches over the course of a season.. AND remain healthy doing it?

I don't think he'll get 300 touches if he's healthy. Only 5 players did last season. I'd guess he's around 240-260.

But, I don't know why we're acting like he's a frail player at 5'11, 225

All data points to a range of 300-330 touches containing the VAST majority of likely outcomes in terms of touches for D Williams if he plays 16 games.

The best projected touches per game for Williams is in the 19-20 range, aka 304-320 touches.

There isn’t any reason to think otherwise, besides completely made up, fabricated, feel good narrative.

Its possible, but not something I'd bet on.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't think he'll get 300 touches if he's healthy. Only 5 players did last season. I'd guess he's around 240-260.

But, I don't know why we're acting like he's a frail player at 5'11, 225

All data points to a range of 300-330 touches containing the VAST majority of likely outcomes in terms of touches for D Williams if he plays 16 games.

The best projected touches per game for Williams is in the 19-20 range, aka 304-320 touches.

There isn’t any reason to think otherwise, besides completely made up, fabricated, feel good narrative.

Its possible, but not something I'd bet on.

x2.

[Cameron Giles]

I should clarify what I meant - nothing suggests that his body can handle the workload of an 18-20 touches per game (as has been mentioned) for the entire year. I was not necessarily saying he is not durable - he may or may not be. We will see.

I think the Chiefs would be wise to give him 12-14 touches tops per game so he is not completely worn down when it matters.

What is this based off though? While you're right that nothing may suggest he can handle 20 touches per game since he hasn't done it before, nothing suggests that he can't either. It's up in the air. Ultimately, I think it's a wash because I don't see 20 touches happening.

His touches last year:

7
12
16
20
12
30
15

So, it was kind of all over. Ultimately, I expect that.

[Mike11]

I’d like to thank the academy for being post 1000 on this. Thank you both doubters and truthers for this opportunity.

[FantasyDumDum]

I don't think he'll get 300 touches if he's healthy. Only 5 players did last season. I'd guess he's around 240-260.

But, I don't know why we're acting like he's a frail player at 5'11, 225

All data points to a range of 300-330 touches containing the VAST majority of likely outcomes in terms of touches for D Williams if he plays 16 games.

The best projected touches per game for Williams is in the 19-20 range, aka 304-320 touches.

There isn’t any reason to think otherwise, besides completely made up, fabricated, feel good narrative.

Its possible, but not something I'd bet on.

Well getting to 300+ touches is less likely, because the average starting RB plays 13 games per year. But him averaging 19-20 touches per game that he plays in is the most likely scenario, which is what actually matters, as you can’t predict injuries for the guys in the middle of the bell curve that aren’t extreme outliers, like the durable CMC or the frail Cook/Fournette, or the unstable Bell.

So if I had to bet even odds that he hits 300 I would say no, but close. If I had to bet 50/50 that he gets 19+ touches per game I would bet yes, and 20+ touches I would bet maybe. 21+ I would bet no.

[Phaded]

I should clarify what I meant - nothing suggests that his body can handle the workload of an 18-20 touches per game (as has been mentioned) for the entire year. I was not necessarily saying he is not durable - he may or may not be. We will see.

I think the Chiefs would be wise to give him 12-14 touches tops per game so he is not completely worn down when it matters.

What is this based off though? While you're right that nothing may suggest he can handle 20 touches per game since he hasn't done it before, nothing suggests that he can't either. It's up in the air. Ultimately, I think it's a wash because I don't see 20 touches happening.

His touches last year:

7
12
16
20
12
30
15

So, it was kind of all over. Ultimately, I expect that.

You are right, it was all over, but that was also only seven games. There is no way to accurately project what is going to happen with him.

Some in here can extrapolate all they want, but that is amateur hour when it comes to analysis and anyone who understands the sport would know.

My guess would put him at between 192-224; but it is just that, a guess. Some people here are acting like their projections are a certainty but nobody knows what will happen.

[wickerkat1212]

damien was a ww find for me. for next to no cost. i have to start THREE rbs, so i'm fine with him being my RB3, with huge upside.

[FantasyDumDum]

I should clarify what I meant - nothing suggests that his body can handle the workload of an 18-20 touches per game (as has been mentioned) for the entire year. I was not necessarily saying he is not durable - he may or may not be. We will see.

I think the Chiefs would be wise to give him 12-14 touches tops per game so he is not completely worn down when it matters.

What is this based off though? While you're right that nothing may suggest he can handle 20 touches per game since he hasn't done it before, nothing suggests that he can't either. It's up in the air. Ultimately, I think it's a wash because I don't see 20 touches happening.

His touches last year:

7
12
16
20
12
30
15

So, it was kind of all over. Ultimately, I expect that.

You are right, it was all over, but that was also only seven games. There is no way to accurately project what is going to happen with him.

Some in here can extrapolate all they want, but that is amateur hour when it comes to analysis and anyone who understands the sport would know.

My guess would put him at between 192-224; but it is just that, a guess. Some people here are acting like their projections are a certainty but nobody knows what will happen.

We’ve done this before here, multiple times. These are touches for Reid’s starting RBs in KC the last 7 years...

2012 Charles:
320 touches(15 games)
21.3 per game

2013 Charles:
329 touches(15 games)
22.0 per game

2014 Charles:
246 touches(15 games)
16.4 per game

2015 Charles:
92 touches(5 games)
18.4 per game

2015 West:
180 touches(9 games)
20.0 per game

2016 Ware:
247 touches(14 games)
17.6 per game

2017 Hunt:
335 touches
20.9 per game

2018 Hunt:
207 touches(11 games)
18.8 per game

2018 Williams:
111 touches(5.5 games)
20.2 per game



Average carries per game has been 19.5 over that span, with lows of 16.4 and 17.6 and highs of 21.3 and 22.0. Williams himself averaged on the higher end of that spectrum during his time in this exact role just this last season.

I think projecting him to have 12-14 per game, or 192-224 total, is baseless. 19.5 seems fair as can be. That is 308 touches in 16 games, which is the average touches per season for Reid’s starting RBs since and including 2012. I could see him realistically having a little less or a little more, but not by much in that role with his abilities.