Damien Williams - convince me

[Csl312]

Yeah, what's so unreasonable about hating a 27 year old career backup who was just thrown into the fire in KC last year in a desperate situation, and also has an injury plus a veteran starter behind him on the depth chart? SO UNREASONABLE.

I'm not saying I think he will be great or anything. But it really feels like some people are on a mission to convince everyone this dude won't score more than 30 fantasy points this year. I doubt he's a complete flop assuming he gets the majority of touches for the first half of the season. Should be a flex play at least in that offense. And it's not impossible that he has a good year or two even at his age. It's not like there is no precedent for journeymen who have a few good seasons toward the end of their career.

[Titans95]

Yeah, what's so unreasonable about hating a 27 year old career backup who was just thrown into the fire in KC last year in a desperate situation, and also has an injury plus a veteran starter behind him on the depth chart? SO UNREASONABLE.

I'm not saying I think he will be great or anything. But it really feels like some people are on a mission to convince everyone this dude won't score more than 30 fantasy points this year. I doubt he's a complete flop assuming he gets the majority of touches for the first half of the season. Should be a flex play at least in that offense. And it's not impossible that he has a good year or two even at his age. It's not like there is no precedent for journeymen who have a few good seasons toward the end of their career.

I don't think anyone doubt that whoever gets the majority of touches for the chiefs will at minimum but a mid range RB2, what people doubt is Williams being the starter for the full season and beyond, I think he's being correctly drafted in redraft leagues towards the end of the 3rd round but in dynasty this type of player spells short term solution. He could beat the odds but as dynasty players we should be playing the odds not trying to beat them. What many people don't want to realize is the Chiefs and many other teams that are putting these subpar backs on the field will be able to draft Kareem Hunt level talent in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft, that class is super deep and stacked. The RB landscape for the league is going to dramatically change next season besides for the few teams that have true locked in bell cows.

[Csl312]

I don't disagree with any of that Titans but having read way too many posts in this thread, it just seems like some people are trying to say he will be absolute trash this year with absolutely no chance to produce going forward; that is just unreasonable.

[ArrylT]

They say that sometimes small gaps can be more difficult to overcome than large ones.

In this case both Phaded & FantasyDumDum could be correct, and in fact are likely more likely to be thinking similarly re: total touches, just coming at it from different angles / perspectives.

Here we have FDD saying:

Well getting to 300+ touches is less likely, because the average starting RB plays 13 games per year. But him averaging 19-20 touches per game that he plays in is the most likely scenario, which is what actually matters, as you can’t predict injuries for the guys in the middle of the bell curve that aren’t extreme outliers, like the durable CMC or the frail Cook/Fournette, or the unstable Bell.

So if I had to bet even odds that he hits 300 I would say no, but close. If I had to bet 50/50 that he gets 19+ touches per game I would bet yes, and 20+ touches I would bet maybe. 21+ I would bet no.

So if we take 19 touches at 13 games that comes to 247 total touches

And here we have Phaded saying:

My guess would put him at between 192-224; but it is just that, a guess. Some people here are acting like their projections are a certainty but nobody knows what will happen.

Well if you divide 224 touches by the average of 13 games you get 17.2 touches a game.

So basically in this scenario the difference is 1.8 touches per game. And considering there has been apparently a variance ranging from 16.4 to 22 touches, both posters are in the same ballpark, and a lot closer to each other than the extremes.

[ArrylT]

I don't think anyone doubt that whoever gets the majority of touches for the chiefs will at minimum but a mid range RB2, what people doubt is Williams being the starter for the full season and beyond, I think he's being correctly drafted in redraft leagues towards the end of the 3rd round but in dynasty this type of player spells short term solution. He could beat the odds but as dynasty players we should be playing the odds not trying to beat them. What many people don't want to realize is the Chiefs and many other teams that are putting these subpar backs on the field will be able to draft Kareem Hunt level talent in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft, that class is super deep and stacked. The RB landscape for the league is going to dramatically change next season besides for the few teams that have true locked in bell cows.

I think you've captured the essence of most people pretty much correctly. It seems to me the majority of disagreement lies not in whether Damien Williams can produce at least like an RB2 if not low end RB1, but rather whether (a) he'll be a safe bet to hold onto the role that gives him this production and/or (b) whether he can stay healthy enough to hold onto the role for the entire season and/or (c) whether someone else arrives a year from now to surplant him. Ones decision regarding this determines whether one sees him worth X or Y or Z. I honestly have seen very little in the way of posts saying that Williams will be unproductive in the lead role - most of the discussion seems to have centered on what that volume would entail.

Myself, I only had 2 shares of Damien Williams, both on rosters which had no chance of contending this season (barring unforeseen circumstances), so I was comfortable selling those shares.

[Jigga94]

Anyone got the cliff notes on the last 5 pages?

[Phaded]

Anyone got the cliff notes on the last 5 pages?

He's good.
No he's not.
Yes he is.
No he is gonna lose the job.
But fantasy points per touch and Andy Reid.
Interesting but no.

[Pullo Vision]

Anyone got the cliff notes on the last 5 pages?

He's good.
No he's not.
Yes he is.
No he is gonna lose the job.
But fantasy points per touch and Andy Reid.
Interesting but no.

Close-
He's good.
No he's not.
Yes he is.
No, he'll be in a committee.
But fantasy points per touch and Andy Reid.
Um, no. Check other posts/threads.
Troll!

[Jigga94]

Ahh so same as the first 60, appreciate it!

[killer_of_giants]

Anyone got the cliff notes on the last 5 pages?

He's good.
No he's not.
Yes he is.
No he is gonna lose the job.
But fantasy points per touch and Andy Reid.
Interesting but no.

Close-
He's good.
No he's not.
Yes he is.
No, he'll be in a committee.
But fantasy points per touch and Andy Reid.
Um, no. Check other posts/threads.
Troll!

[Mike11]

Why is this thread not closed at this point

[jcc6fd]

Uh Oh... Reid is saying there will be a committee...

[hockeyBjj]

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/8/9 ... -committee

Andy Reid says Rb will by a committee

“I did a little bit of that when I was in Philadelphia, a kind of running back-by-committee deal and we had some success with it.” Reid said during an interview with SiriusXM NFL Radio. “We’ll do that here (in Kansas City).

“We drafted a kid (at running back) and the other Williams (Darrel Williams) isn’t bad either. We’ve got a couple Williamses, and then Carlos (Hyde), we’ve got a new little guy (Darwin Thompson) in there that runs around, so we’ve got a good nucleus of players that I think we’re going to be good at that spot. They all have their strengths and we’ll try to exploit their strengths.”



Damien Williams bagholders, including myself, right now


Never could get someone to buy for a late 1st in my main league. Couldn't even sell him for a 2nd on draft day when Paris Campbell was still available. Aw well. He helped me win the ship last year so I'll always be appreciative of that waiver wire add.

[killer_of_giants]

Uh Oh... Reid is saying there will be a committee...

he is obviously just trolling.

[FantasyDumDum]

Sigh, again for the trolls here that the mods foster and encourage...


I listened to that interview.

First off, Reid didn’t really say that, he said every RB would get some touches, not equal touches. And in that VERY SAME INTERVIEW he said that Damien was the clear starter.

Second, it is the same exact thing he said when Hyde went down and Damien took over sole ownership of the backfield. [Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) Tweeted:
CBS' Evan Washburn just said Andy Reid told him the Chiefs eventually want a three-man committee between Ware, Damien Williams and Darrel Williams. Dec 2, 2018].

He said Damien, Ware, and Darrel would share touches(which they technically sorta did) but over the final 5 games that’s Damien started(Ware was injured for 2), Damien had 93 touches, Darrel 18, and Ware 1. And 11 of those 18 touches for Darrel came when Damien sat the second half of week 17 to rest for the playoffs.