Damien Williams - convince me

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby UnitedLoon » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:03 pm

Damien Williams' Points Per Thread was just cut in half. Elite status revoked.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyDumDum » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:30 pm

The whole point of this is that I’m standing alone in this forum pointing out some very simple and obvious facts that are being received here with gnashing of teeth, lashing out, name calling, trolling, drive by narrative based one liners, and ZERO substantive responses. Seriously, there hasn’t been a good or even halfway thought out response yet!

D Williams is an absolutely elite fantasy RB in PPR formats. He has the CMC and Kamara cheat code of being a starting/bellcow size/strength/speed RB with elite pass catching skills. He has Cohen type receiving abilities and fantasy production/efficiency because of it, but at 5” taller, 40 pounds heavier, and at about the same speed as Cohen(4.42 v 4.45), oh and he will get starting volume(300+-) touches on one of the best offenses for RBs and in general in NFL history(Cohen was RB13 on only 170 touches on low volume low scoring Chi offense last year). All those type of RBs need is starter volume. Could you imagine if you made Cohen 5” taller, 40 pounds heavier, kept him at roughly the same speed, sent him to KC, and gave him 300 touches? Instant RB1 overall.

From everything I can tell D Williams is likely in store for 300+- touches(Hunt 2017 = 325, Hunt Pace 2018 = 301, D Williams Pace 2018 = 297 despite missing sitting half of week 17), and because of his pass catching prowess, he is likely to produce at 1.20 FPPT 0.5ppr or better. That is RB1 overall type season without any question.

Now his downside is what? Injury possibility? Sure, like basically every other RB, and the pass catching bellcows actually get injured and experience wear and tear at a much LOWER rate historically than the grinders who have massive carry volume. What else? Being replaced? Not by any RB currently on the roster. What else? Not performing up to his average or even well below his career average so far? All evidence points to otherwise.
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

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Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:41 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:30 pm
The whole point of this is that I’m standing alone in this forum pointing out some very simple and obvious facts that are being received here with gnashing of teeth, lashing out, name calling, trolling, drive by narrative based one liners, and ZERO substantive responses. Seriously, there hasn’t been a good or even halfway thought out response yet!

D Williams is an absolutely elite fantasy RB in PPR formats. He has the CMC and Kamara cheat code of being a starting/bellcow size/strength/speed RB with elite pass catching skills. He has Cohen type receiving abilities and fantasy production/efficiency because of it, but at 5” taller, 40 pounds heavier, and at about the same speed as Cohen(4.42 v 4.45), oh and he will get starting volume(300+-) touches on one of the best offenses for RBs and in general in NFL history(Cohen was RB13 on only 170 touches on low volume low scoring Chi offense last year). All those type of RBs need is starter volume. Could you imagine if you made Cohen 5” taller, 40 pounds heavier, kept him at roughly the same speed, sent him to KC, and gave him 300 touches? Instant RB1 overall.

From everything I can tell D Williams is likely in store for 300+- touches(Hunt 2017 = 325, Hunt Pace 2018 = 301, D Williams Pace 2018 = 297 despite missing sitting half of week 17), and because of his pass catching prowess, he is likely to produce at 1.20 FPPT 0.5ppr or better. That is RB1 overall type season without any question.

Now his downside is what? Injury possibility? Sure, like basically every other RB, and the pass catching bellcows actually get injured and experience wear and tear at a much LOWER rate historically than the grinders who have massive carry volume. What else? Being replaced? Not by any RB currently on the roster. What else? Not performing up to his average or even well below his career average so far? All evidence points to otherwise.
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16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Rivers, Stidham
RB: Kamara, Sanders, Murray, Scott, Kelley
WR: Julio, Hill, OBJ, Keenan, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:46 pm

UnitedLoon wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:03 pm
Damien Williams' Points Per Thread was just cut in half. Elite status revoked.
:clap: :lol: At least some people have a sense of humour.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby sugbear65 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:49 pm

50 pages and not even one half way thought out response yet? I have some questions seeing as how this thread has circled around so many times it’s dizzying. Have you read all of the responses? I mean you may not agree with them but you can at least acknowledge the fact that some people have laid out thoughtful and constructive counter arguments, right? Or is this one of those “the louder I yell the more I win” type of situations? Because to me, and I’m just one guy, but to me it seems like you just keep posting the same thing over and over again in different ways while calling anyone who disagrees stupid.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby IZigUZag » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:55 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:30 pm
The whole point of this is that I’m standing alone in this forum pointing out some very simple and obvious facts that are being received here with gnashing of teeth, lashing out, name calling, trolling, drive by narrative based one liners, and ZERO substantive responses. Seriously, there hasn’t been a good or even halfway thought out response yet!

D Williams is an absolutely elite fantasy RB in PPR formats. He has the CMC and Kamara cheat code of being a starting/bellcow size/strength/speed RB with elite pass catching skills. He has Cohen type receiving abilities and fantasy production/efficiency because of it, but at 5” taller, 40 pounds heavier, and at about the same speed as Cohen(4.42 v 4.45), oh and he will get starting volume(300+-) touches on one of the best offenses for RBs and in general in NFL history(Cohen was RB13 on only 170 touches on low volume low scoring Chi offense last year). All those type of RBs need is starter volume. Could you imagine if you made Cohen 5” taller, 40 pounds heavier, kept him at roughly the same speed, sent him to KC, and gave him 300 touches? Instant RB1 overall.

From everything I can tell D Williams is likely in store for 300+- touches(Hunt 2017 = 325, Hunt Pace 2018 = 301, D Williams Pace 2018 = 297 despite missing sitting half of week 17), and because of his pass catching prowess, he is likely to produce at 1.20 FPPT 0.5ppr or better. That is RB1 overall type season without any question.

Now his downside is what? Injury possibility? Sure, like basically every other RB, and the pass catching bellcows actually get injured and experience wear and tear at a much LOWER rate historically than the grinders who have massive carry volume. What else? Being replaced? Not by any RB currently on the roster. What else? Not performing up to his average or even well below his career average so far? All evidence points to otherwise.
I agree that his upside is top 5 RB.

I don't think he's as safe as you're presuming though. Established RB's have much more leeway for middling production if their O-line is struggling, and in the case of injury.

The best example of this happened with Ty Montgomery in 2017. He commanded a 95% snap share the first month of the season, but struggled behind an O-line missing their top 2 O-lineman. They came back, and Monty was well on his way to a big day gaining 40 something yards on the first drive-- then he got injured paving the way for Aaron Jones to steal his job (he performed well, but not better than Montgomery was behind the same starting 5 O-lineman)... but it didn't matter. The narrative had already been set: Aaron Jones good, Ty Montgomery bad. The same thing could happen with Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson (GTFO here with Carlos Hyde).

The same scenario happens with Melvin Gordon, Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, etc. and they go right back to their starting jobs, regardless.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Phaded » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:16 pm

UnitedLoon wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:03 pm
Damien Williams' Points Per Thread was just cut in half. Elite status revoked.
#winner

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Bot101 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:17 pm

UnitedLoon wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:03 pm
Damien Williams' Points Per Thread was just cut in half. Elite status revoked.
Volume strikes again.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:18 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:30 pm
The whole point of this is that I’m standing alone in this forum pointing out some very simple and obvious facts that are being received here with gnashing of teeth, lashing out, name calling, trolling, drive by narrative based one liners, and ZERO substantive responses. Seriously, there hasn’t been a good or even halfway thought out response yet!
Seriously, you need to get better words. Calling people lying trolls who make opposing points to you is not the way to get the responses you want. Seriously, check out what Valhalla has said here. He makes good points in his posts, but you bash any post that doesn't agree with your views.
sugbear65 wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:49 pm
50 pages and not even one half way thought out response yet? I have some questions seeing as how this thread has circled around so many times it’s dizzying. Have you read all of the responses? I mean you may not agree with them but you can at least acknowledge the fact that some people have laid out thoughtful and constructive counter arguments, right? Or is this one of those “the louder I yell the more I win” type of situations? Because to me, and I’m just one guy, but to me it seems like you just keep posting the same thing over and over again in different ways while calling anyone who disagrees stupid.
This.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1 Q, 1R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 R/T, 1 Def

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby TheNuts » Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:56 am

Andy Reid made me a believer when he endorsed Damien. I was always a fan of his and thought he was under used in Miami. I traded Gurley for Damien and Jaylen Samuel's and I feel like at worst Williams will finish with numbers really close to Gurley at years end.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Pullo Vision » Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:19 am

TheNuts wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:56 am
Andy Reid made me a believer when he endorsed Damien. I was always a fan of his and thought he was under used in Miami. I traded Gurley for Damien and Jaylen Samuel's and I feel like at worst Williams will finish with numbers really close to Gurley at years end.
I appreciate you taking the strong stand on these players' values that this trade says, but at least it seems you left meat on the bone with regards to Gurley's value. The gap from Williams to Gurley doesn't seem to be filled by Jaylen Samuels, according to consensus value.

How did you come to that trade? Was it an unsolicited offer you made, or did you do it after a negotiation, after discussions with other owners went nowhere?
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
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League #2- 12 team PPR, 1 Q, 1R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 R/T, 1 Def

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:20 am

TheNuts wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:56 am
Andy Reid made me a believer when he endorsed Damien. I was always a fan of his and thought he was under used in Miami. I traded Gurley for Damien and Jaylen Samuel's and I feel like at worst Williams will finish with numbers really close to Gurley at years end.
That is definitely not "at worst".
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Rivers, Stidham
RB: Kamara, Sanders, Murray, Scott, Kelley
WR: Julio, Hill, OBJ, Keenan, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby abloom » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:26 am

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:20 am
TheNuts wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:56 am
Andy Reid made me a believer when he endorsed Damien. I was always a fan of his and thought he was under used in Miami. I traded Gurley for Damien and Jaylen Samuel's and I feel like at worst Williams will finish with numbers really close to Gurley at years end.
That is definitely not "at worst".
Should say: "I feel like at worst Gurley will finish with numbers really close to Williams as year end"
Dynasty Team #1: 2019 2nd Place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 2flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Wentz, Tannehill, Haskins
RB: CMC, Fournette, Guice, Peterson, Armstead
WR: OBJ, Evans, Edelman, C Samuel
TE: Goedert, Henry
DST: NE, BAL
K: Zurlein

2020 picks: rounds 1.03 (Taylor),4.11 (Everett),5.11 (Bowden),7.11
------------
Dynasty Team #2: 2019 3rd place
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1superflex, 1flex, 1DST, 1K

QB: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Tannehill
RB: Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Gurley, Ingram, S Michel, Thompson, J Hill
WR: Nuk, Allen, Godwin, Sutton, Edwards, Funchess
TE: Fant, Hurst
K: Boswell
DST: PIT

2021 picks, 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,6,7
------------
Redraft 2019 Champs :dance:
10 team, 0.5ppr, 1qb, 1 rb, 2wr, 1 te, 2 flex, 1DST, 1K

Keeper: Kamara

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby TheNuts » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:45 am

Pullo Vision wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:19 am
TheNuts wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:56 am
Andy Reid made me a believer when he endorsed Damien. I was always a fan of his and thought he was under used in Miami. I traded Gurley for Damien and Jaylen Samuel's and I feel like at worst Williams will finish with numbers really close to Gurley at years end.
I appreciate you taking the strong stand on these players' values that this trade says, but at least it seems you left meat on the bone with regards to Gurley's value. The gap from Williams to Gurley doesn't seem to be filled by Jaylen Samuels, according to consensus value.

How did you come to that trade? Was it an unsolicited offer you made, or did you do it after a negotiation, after discussions with other owners went nowhere?
I offered it. I guess it was skewed by my personal opinion of Samuels. He would be a top 5ish back imo if Conner were to get hurt, and that's not just because he is on a good offense. I think he is a really good running back. Plus we have contract limits in this league. Gurley had 2 years left. Williams also had 2 years left, but Samuels had 4. I thought getting Samuels at 4 years was pretty damn good.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby dynastyninja » Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:10 am

TheNuts wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:56 am
Andy Reid made me a believer when he endorsed Damien. I was always a fan of his and thought he was under used in Miami. I traded Gurley for Damien and Jaylen Samuel's and I feel like at worst Williams will finish with numbers really close to Gurley at years end.
Holy cow. Gurley really has hit rock bottom. I'm about to send offers in all of my leagues.

Man, just why? At worst, Williams loses the job four weeks in and is worth nothing. That's the actual "at worst." Gurley will possibly have a scaled-back workload. Now, instead of being a top 3 RB he might just be an RB1. That's not William's floor, and you know it.

I won't even go into the obvious value loss because that is a touchy subject on these boards.


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