Damien Williams - convince me

[FantasyFreak]

Sure, if he's not one of your starters. Otherwise it makes no sense to trade one of your starters while you're contending for a first.

Yes it does. In my opinion, anyway. Assuming we are talking about 2020 firsts at this point, anyway. There are other ways to get RB production. You could use that first for a lot of different things, it's a more universal trading piece than Williams. He could start for 6 games, he isn't entrenched as a starter no matter what. I would not sell for less than a first, but if I was a contender, I'd take the first and work on my RB situation another way. It's only May, long time before the season starts.

Damien Williams was a waiver wire pick up or deep stash. If you are relying on him then you arent really a contender. To keep a dynasty going you sell players like this while the window is open. Because at some point it will shut, quickly.

Heres an quote:
"Unfortunately, the underlying numbers suggest Williams didn’t magically transform into a better running back overnight. Opposing defenses were concerned about stopping Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s aerial attack that they devoted basically no resources to stopping the run. Williams faced an average of just 6.4 men in the box per carry, easily below the league-average rate. Additionally, he didn’t make guys miss, as he ranked 112th in yards created per carry. Basically, he only got the yards allotted to him by the offensive line."

Link
https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/ ... 9-outlook/

I was going to mention this, but wanted to keep my post shorter. Completely agree.

[Bot101]

Damien Williams was a waiver wire pick up or deep stash. If you are relying on him then you arent really a contender.

A contender might be stacked at every position but RB, where he only has, say, two good options other than DW. In which case, DW's inclusion would put the roster over the top as an on paper front runner (imo, elite contenders in a 12-team need three RB1/2s).

Heres an quote:
"Unfortunately, the underlying numbers suggest Williams didn’t magically transform into a better running back overnight. Opposing defenses were concerned about stopping Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s aerial attack that they devoted basically no resources to stopping the run. Williams faced an average of just 6.4 men in the box per carry, easily below the league-average rate. Additionally, he didn’t make guys miss, as he ranked 112th in yards created per carry. Basically, he only got the yards allotted to him by the offensive line."

Link
https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/ ... 9-outlook/

Except that seems to be a meaningless metric, according to other analytics. PFF graded DW too, ofc.

https://twitter.com/NDO_Dynasty/status/ ... 9567053826
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1100489687708385281


DW last year benefitted greatly from his O-line and Mahomes. But we have known that all along. It's central to his appeal. For now, there's little reason to fear he won't continue benefitting from them, and overachieving accordingly.

Ah you're a Damien owner. No wonder your defending him here whilst also disparaging Thompson in the minicamp thread. A little insecure I see.

[Cameron Giles]

If I'm contending and someone offers a 1st I'm taking that and running.

Sure, if he's not one of your starters. Otherwise it makes no sense to trade one of your starters while you're contending for a first.

Yes it does. In my opinion, anyway. Assuming we are talking about 2020 firsts at this point, anyway. There are other ways to get RB production. You could use that first for a lot of different things, it's a more universal trading piece than Williams. He could start for 6 games, he isn't entrenched as a starter no matter what. I would not sell for less than a first, but if I was a contender, I'd take the first and work on my RB situation another way. It's only May, long time before the season starts.

You're basically saying that a contender should make their team worse to prioritize value. It makes no sense. Yes, trade value is important, but the goal is to win a league. If Williams is a big part of you doing that, you're not trading him for a pick during the season.

[FantasyFreak]

Sure, if he's not one of your starters. Otherwise it makes no sense to trade one of your starters while you're contending for a first.

Yes it does. In my opinion, anyway. Assuming we are talking about 2020 firsts at this point, anyway. There are other ways to get RB production. You could use that first for a lot of different things, it's a more universal trading piece than Williams. He could start for 6 games, he isn't entrenched as a starter no matter what. I would not sell for less than a first, but if I was a contender, I'd take the first and work on my RB situation another way. It's only May, long time before the season starts.

You're basically saying that a contender should make their team worse to prioritize value. It makes no sense. Yes, trade value is important, but the goal is to win a league. If Williams is a big part of you doing that, you're not trading him for a pick during the season.

It's not during the season. It's June (that's what I meant, not May LOL) I was talking about the here and now. If I could get a future first for Williams on what I thought was a contending team, I'd do it. There are months before the season starts. As someone else already stated, I think that if you are counting on Williams to win, you're a fake contender anyway. I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.

[Cameron Giles]

Yes it does. In my opinion, anyway. Assuming we are talking about 2020 firsts at this point, anyway. There are other ways to get RB production. You could use that first for a lot of different things, it's a more universal trading piece than Williams. He could start for 6 games, he isn't entrenched as a starter no matter what. I would not sell for less than a first, but if I was a contender, I'd take the first and work on my RB situation another way. It's only May, long time before the season starts.

You're basically saying that a contender should make their team worse to prioritize value. It makes no sense. Yes, trade value is important, but the goal is to win a league. If Williams is a big part of you doing that, you're not trading him for a pick during the season.

It's not during the season. It's June (that's what I meant, not May LOL) I was talking about the here and now. If I could get a future first for Williams on what I thought was a contending team, I'd do it. There are months before the season starts. As someone else already stated, I think that if you are counting on Williams to win, you're a fake contender anyway. I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.

Counting on an RB who played well last year in a really good offense doesn't seem like betting on fake contention. If he's your best RB, maybe. But there are teams who have him essentially as a FLEX.

[FantasyDumDum]

Yes it does. In my opinion, anyway. Assuming we are talking about 2020 firsts at this point, anyway. There are other ways to get RB production. You could use that first for a lot of different things, it's a more universal trading piece than Williams. He could start for 6 games, he isn't entrenched as a starter no matter what. I would not sell for less than a first, but if I was a contender, I'd take the first and work on my RB situation another way. It's only May, long time before the season starts.

You're basically saying that a contender should make their team worse to prioritize value. It makes no sense. Yes, trade value is important, but the goal is to win a league. If Williams is a big part of you doing that, you're not trading him for a pick during the season.

It's not during the season. It's June (that's what I meant, not May LOL) I was talking about the here and now. If I could get a future first for Williams on what I thought was a contending team, I'd do it. There are months before the season starts. As someone else already stated, I think that if you are counting on Williams to win, you're a fake contender anyway. I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.

So you are selling Bell, DJ, maybe even a Gordon for a single 1st on contending teams?

[FantasyDumDum]

Damien Williams was a waiver wire pick up or deep stash. If you are relying on him then you arent really a contender.

A contender might be stacked at every position but RB, where he only has, say, two good options other than DW. In which case, DW's inclusion would put the roster over the top as an on paper front runner (imo, elite contenders in a 12-team need three RB1/2s).

Heres an quote:
"Unfortunately, the underlying numbers suggest Williams didn’t magically transform into a better running back overnight. Opposing defenses were concerned about stopping Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s aerial attack that they devoted basically no resources to stopping the run. Williams faced an average of just 6.4 men in the box per carry, easily below the league-average rate. Additionally, he didn’t make guys miss, as he ranked 112th in yards created per carry. Basically, he only got the yards allotted to him by the offensive line."

Link
https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/ ... 9-outlook/

Except that seems to be a meaningless metric, according to other analytics. PFF graded DW too, ofc.

https://twitter.com/NDO_Dynasty/status/ ... 9567053826
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1100489687708385281


DW last year benefitted greatly from his O-line and Mahomes. But we have known that all along. It's central to his appeal. For now, there's little reason to fear he won't continue benefitting from them, and overachieving accordingly.

Ah you're a Damien owner. No wonder your defending him here whilst also disparaging Thompson in the minicamp thread. A little insecure I see.

This is the absolute worst kind of argument/analysis. You’re just copping out and giving up in the face of reality, and appealing to a shallow ad hominem to disparage a player and poster because....why exactly?

[FantasyDumDum]

Sure, if he's not one of your starters. Otherwise it makes no sense to trade one of your starters while you're contending for a first.

Yes it does. In my opinion, anyway. Assuming we are talking about 2020 firsts at this point, anyway. There are other ways to get RB production. You could use that first for a lot of different things, it's a more universal trading piece than Williams. He could start for 6 games, he isn't entrenched as a starter no matter what. I would not sell for less than a first, but if I was a contender, I'd take the first and work on my RB situation another way. It's only May, long time before the season starts.

Damien Williams was a waiver wire pick up or deep stash. If you are relying on him then you arent really a contender. To keep a dynasty going you sell players like this while the window is open. Because at some point it will shut, quickly.

Heres an quote:
"Unfortunately, the underlying numbers suggest Williams didn’t magically transform into a better running back overnight. Opposing defenses were concerned about stopping Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s aerial attack that they devoted basically no resources to stopping the run. Williams faced an average of just 6.4 men in the box per carry, easily below the league-average rate. Additionally, he didn’t make guys miss, as he ranked 112th in yards created per carry. Basically, he only got the yards allotted to him by the offensive line."

Link
https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/ ... 9-outlook/

This has been hashed out elsewhere on other boards, but it ends up that Damien was 12th overall in that metric, and that 112th is a typo. For example, he is 55th overall in total yards created, despite only starting 4 games in the regular season. Saquon is #5 overall in yards created per carry, at 1.95. Damien is #12 at 1.67, Kareem Hunt #18 at 1.57. I would be a little more careful in which bad website you use to fabricate an argument next time.


Edit: and to address the OTHER terrible point in that blurb. Yes Damien faces a lot of light boxes, but from the exact same list where that disingenuous author grabbed the 6.4 men in the box average, you can easily see that Damien averaged the following yards per carry:

5.0ypc against light box(6 men), 4.9ypc against base box(7 men), and a whopping 6.6ypc against a stacked box(8+ men), which was about 1/7 of his carries.

Again, not exactly stats you can use against him, as they paint him in a VERY GOOD light compared to other RBs. For example, Hunt:

Averaged 6.6 men in the box, so very similar to Damien last year. Yet against light boxes he averaged 5.6ypc, against base boxes 4.2, and against stacked boxes a putrid 2.3ypc.

[Valhalla]

You’re presenting stats I have an easier time getting behind now...much easier to support than fantasy points per touch. I’m sure the sample sizes on those splits must be quite small, though.

It’s just very difficult to support with any concrete data how great a guy is statistically when the sample sizes are small, because most statistical relevance depends on a large sample size. I commend your efforts, though, and I do believe Damien has a chance to be a league winner.

[FantasyDumDum]

You’re presenting stats I have an easier time getting behind now...much easier to support than fantasy points per touch. I’m sure the sample sizes on those splits must be quite small, though.

It’s just very difficult to support with any concrete data how great a guy is statistically when the sample sizes are small, because most statistical relevance depends on a large sample size. I commend your efforts, though, and I do believe Damien has a chance to be a league winner.

Yes, at no point am I denying the sample size is small. It is why I try to include his two postseason games stats to make the set more robust in Williams’ case. Some here didn’t like that either though!

The above stats backing Williams aren’t even that relevant, but I was just pointing out that that awful blurb posted above in the thread was trying to use these exact stats against Williams, when one was based on a typo and the other a lie by omission, and the exact stats cited actually would support Damien majorly if they were even relevant in the first place, which again, they aren’t really.

[You won’t like this haha, but I fully stand behind fantasy points per touch as a hugely relevant and useable stat for RBs. It tells so much and is very consistent over time for each RB. Certain types of RBs hover around the same points per touch numbers over time.

Pass catching RBs tend higher above 1.00, non pass catching RBs lower in the 0.80 range and below, and all around RBs right in between in the 0.90 range. And the RBs stay in those ranges based on their styles, so if we can just predict their touches then we have the best sense possible of their fantasy output.

The goal is when you get one of the above 1.00 pass catching type RBs(above 1.20 or even 1.30 like Damien is the jackpot of all jackpots) in a bellcow role where we know they’ll be getting near 20 touches per game. Think CMC(1.18), Kamara(1.12), and now Damien Williams(1.35).

The RBs I generally want to avoid are the non pass catching RBs, who have such incredibly limited upside due to their low points per touch, that even given 20 touches pers game end up RB2s. The Jordan Howards(0.63), Derrick Henrys(0.82), Chris Carsons(0.73). No thanks on those guys. Their upside is always capped because of the low FP/T number.

Another way to say it is that in order to get Gurley or LT type RB1 overall numbers, CMC/Kamara/D Williams only need like 330 touches. Whereas Howard/Henry/Carson would need more like 500.

And to boot the high FP/T guys, the pass catching RBs, take less wear and tear and have less injury concerns and can be projected to last longer in the league even as bellcows than the low FP/T players. CMC and Kamara are gold in that sense as well, where they will likely have less carries under their belt after 5 years in the league than Zeke does after 3, and will likely proportionally last that much longer as effective RB1s than others. We’ve already seen this with neither CMC or Kamara being injured before in their careers in pretty much any meaningful way.]

[FantasyFreak]

You're basically saying that a contender should make their team worse to prioritize value. It makes no sense. Yes, trade value is important, but the goal is to win a league. If Williams is a big part of you doing that, you're not trading him for a pick during the season.

It's not during the season. It's June (that's what I meant, not May LOL) I was talking about the here and now. If I could get a future first for Williams on what I thought was a contending team, I'd do it. There are months before the season starts. As someone else already stated, I think that if you are counting on Williams to win, you're a fake contender anyway. I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.

So you are selling Bell, DJ, maybe even a Gordon for a single 1st on contending teams?

This is not the same thing at all. Not sure why you're even asking this. He's not in the same conversation of talent or value as the players you have mentioned. I'd sell Williams for any 2020 first right now, no matter what the state of my team, that's all I'm saying.

[FantasyDumDum]

It's not during the season. It's June (that's what I meant, not May LOL) I was talking about the here and now. If I could get a future first for Williams on what I thought was a contending team, I'd do it. There are months before the season starts. As someone else already stated, I think that if you are counting on Williams to win, you're a fake contender anyway. I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.

So you are selling Bell, DJ, maybe even a Gordon for a single 1st on contending teams?

This is not the same thing at all. Not sure why you're even asking this. He's not in the same conversation of talent or value as the players you have mentioned. I'd sell Williams for any 2020 first right now, no matter what the state of my team, that's all I'm saying.

I asked because you clearly stated: “I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.”

That is an apt description of at least DJ and Bell, and possibly Gordon. All have roughly a 1-2 year window of possible elite RB1 production left in them most likely. Same as D Williams - most likely outcome for him is 1-2 years of elite RB1 production. D Williams is actually in the best situation for actual production, and at least in the cases of Bell and DJ, has very similar contract length - Bell and DJ can be cut for very little dead cap hit, saving the team tons of cash, after 2020, the same time Damien Williams’ moderate/cheap 2 year contract ends.

There really isn’t a huge difference in future forecast for these RBs mentioned versus Damien Williams. 1-2 years of elite production from each is their most likely scenario. So I am asking, why would you sell him for a single 1st but not them? Personally, I wouldn’t sell any of them for even close to that little, especially as a contender.

[sugbear65]

So you are selling Bell, DJ, maybe even a Gordon for a single 1st on contending teams?

This is not the same thing at all. Not sure why you're even asking this. He's not in the same conversation of talent or value as the players you have mentioned. I'd sell Williams for any 2020 first right now, no matter what the state of my team, that's all I'm saying.

I asked because you clearly stated: “I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.”

That is an apt description of at least DJ and Bell, and possibly Gordon. All have roughly a 1-2 year window of possible elite RB1 production left in them most likely. Same as D Williams - most likely outcome for him is 1-2 years of elite RB1 production. D Williams is actually in the best situation for actual production, and at least in the cases of Bell and DJ, has very similar contract length - Bell and DJ can be cut for very little dead cap hit, saving the team tons of cash, after 2020, the same time Damien Williams’ moderate/cheap 2 year contract ends.

There really isn’t a huge difference in future forecast for these RBs mentioned versus Damien Williams. 1-2 years of elite production from each is their most likely scenario. So I am asking, why would you sell him for a single 1st but not them? Personally, I wouldn’t sell any of them for even close to that little, especially as a contender.

Lol you can’t put words into somebody’s mouth and then ask them to explain themselves. This was a huge reach by you to make the poster seem foolish, and it cast you in a bad light instead I’d say.
But to answer your made up question, it’s all about curren perceived value. the guys you mentioned have actually proven to be RB1s multiple times in their careers, and are valued in dynasty much higher than Williams. So you can get much more than just a 1st for them. Selling for less would be dumb, but if you’re not a believer in them it’s still fine to sell at market value. Williams comes with more questions and much less proven production. So you can’t get much more than just a 1st for him. Selling for less would be dumb, but if you’re not a believer in him then it’s still fine to sell at market value. Make sense?

[FantasyDumDum]

This is not the same thing at all. Not sure why you're even asking this. He's not in the same conversation of talent or value as the players you have mentioned. I'd sell Williams for any 2020 first right now, no matter what the state of my team, that's all I'm saying.

I asked because you clearly stated: “I will always flip a guy like Williams who is a short term at best producer (assuming he continues to produce) past the age apex at the most replaceable position for a future first in the early off season.”

That is an apt description of at least DJ and Bell, and possibly Gordon. All have roughly a 1-2 year window of possible elite RB1 production left in them most likely. Same as D Williams - most likely outcome for him is 1-2 years of elite RB1 production. D Williams is actually in the best situation for actual production, and at least in the cases of Bell and DJ, has very similar contract length - Bell and DJ can be cut for very little dead cap hit, saving the team tons of cash, after 2020, the same time Damien Williams’ moderate/cheap 2 year contract ends.

There really isn’t a huge difference in future forecast for these RBs mentioned versus Damien Williams. 1-2 years of elite production from each is their most likely scenario. So I am asking, why would you sell him for a single 1st but not them? Personally, I wouldn’t sell any of them for even close to that little, especially as a contender.

Lol you can’t put words into somebody’s mouth and then ask them to explain themselves. This was a huge reach by you to make the poster seem foolish, and it cast you in a bad light instead I’d say.
But to answer your made up question, it’s all about curren perceived value. the guys you mentioned have actually proven to be RB1s multiple times in their careers, and are valued in dynasty much higher than Williams. So you can get much more than just a 1st for them. Selling for less would be dumb, but if you’re not a believer in them it’s still fine to sell at market value. Williams comes with more questions and much less proven production. So you can’t get much more than just a 1st for him. Selling for less would be dumb, but if you’re not a believer in him then it’s still fine to sell at market value. Make sense?

I didn’t put any words in anyone’s mouth. I very clearly posted the exact quote that they wrote. Don’t lie to try to portray me personally in a negative light for your own personal reasons.

And the whole point is that the perceived value of Bell/DJ versus D Williams is WAY OFF balance to what the real value is. There is little actually separating their real value, so to sell D Williams for significantly less than them is just downright stupid. Selling him for a single 1st because the public, the uninformed casual player, lags behind in knowledge and lacks experience at valuing players is no excuse. They will catch up and Williams’ value will increase significantly to double or more what it is now by the end of summer/beginning of season. That makes a sell at 1 1st an incredibly boneheaded move.

Another way to think about it is if the public is valuing DJ/Bell at around 3 1sts right now, and Williams at 1 1st, theoretically you could get D Williams plus 2 1sts for a DJ or Bell. That would be an absolute steal of epic proportions, as the difference between DJ/Bell and D Williams future forecast is really marginal at best. It would be like getting 1-1.5 free 1sts in real value out of thin air in that trade.

[Ice]

And the whole point is that the perceived value of Bell/DJ versus D Williams is WAY OFF balance to what the real value is. There is little actually separating their real value, so to sell D Williams for significantly less than them is just downright stupid.

Wow!