Damien Williams - convince me

[Huh]

"GM Brett Veach smiled when he said he could definitely envision Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield in the backfield for Kansas City."

^This type of mid round RB is the biggest fear DW owners should have

I could see them drafting this guy and it only having a moderate impact on Williams. Holyfield caught like seven balls. In his life.

[Orenthal Shames]

"GM Brett Veach smiled when he said he could definitely envision Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield in the backfield for Kansas City."

^This type of mid round RB is the biggest fear DW owners should have

I could see them drafting this guy and it only having a moderate impact on Williams. Holyfield caught like seven balls. In his life.

There will be a lot of guys available in that range for KC: Henderson, Singletary, Sanders, etc. according to mocks. Was moreso posting to reiterate the threat to DW value is very real. He may have the most volatile stock in FF right now. I can't think of another player who's range of outcomes is so broad. It is intriguing to follow and has made for good conversation thus far.

[Huh]

"GM Brett Veach smiled when he said he could definitely envision Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield in the backfield for Kansas City."

^This type of mid round RB is the biggest fear DW owners should have

I could see them drafting this guy and it only having a moderate impact on Williams. Holyfield caught like seven balls. In his life.

There will be a lot of guys available in that range for KC: Henderson, Singletary, Sanders, etc. according to mocks. Was moreso posting to reiterate the threat to DW value is very real. He may have the most volatile stock in FF right now. I can't think of another player who's range of outcomes is so broad. It is intriguing to follow and has made for good conversation thus far.

I’m just not impressed. Most of these guys execept a few are being mocked at pick 100 or later. That does not say much for the overall talent at the position. Of course there is a chance that a fourth round back hits, but they are typically depth backs. The initial feeling that this is a down year for backs is correct. They all have warts. We can wish as hard as we want, it’s not going to make the position sexier.

[Cameron Giles]

"GM Brett Veach smiled when he said he could definitely envision Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield in the backfield for Kansas City."

^This type of mid round RB is the biggest fear DW owners should have

I really don't understand why Holyfield is regarded highly by this board. He's a zero in the passing game and isn't a special early down back either.

But overall, I think everyone expects KC to add an RB to the backfield. They really have nobody outside of Dam. Williams and you need depth. But, if they do draft Holyfield I'd consider it good news for anyone who has Williams. It creates an even clearer role for Williams as the passing-down back, which gives him big upside in PPR.

[FantasyFreak]

I could see them drafting this guy and it only having a moderate impact on Williams. Holyfield caught like seven balls. In his life.

There will be a lot of guys available in that range for KC: Henderson, Singletary, Sanders, etc. according to mocks. Was moreso posting to reiterate the threat to DW value is very real. He may have the most volatile stock in FF right now. I can't think of another player who's range of outcomes is so broad. It is intriguing to follow and has made for good conversation thus far.

I’m just not impressed. Most of these guys execept a few are being mocked at pick 100 or later. That does not say much for the overall talent at the position. Of course there is a chance that a fourth round back hits, but they are typically depth backs. The initial feeling that this is a down year for backs is correct. They all have warts. We can wish as hard as we want, it’s not going to make the position sexier.

That's still a threat to Williams. He's a depth back, too.

[ninotoreS]

https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1101151142489276418

Has this been posted here yet? I'm on mobile, it's hard to scroll through all the posts since I was last here with my budget electronic leash.

I think Veach is proud of himself for signing Williams after '17, and proud of himself for extending Williams last year before he starred in the playoffs. I think he's Williams' biggest supporter, and perhaps the best factor to note in Williams' favor (for our purposes) going into the draft.

If Veach loves Williams, it seems unlikely he'll use a premium pick on one of this draft's top RB prospects.

KC most needs to address their edge rush (with Justin Houston fading), their linebackers, their cornerbacks... most of their defense. Probably safety too, considering Eric Berry is forever snake-bit. Inability by their defense to do anything about the Pats' ball-control in the playoffs is why they didn't get to the Super Bowl. RB shouldn't be a priority right now.


edit: Oh, one more thing. Saw reports that the Chiefs have had several meetings with Dexter Williams. Not regarded as one of this draft's top RB prospects, I suspect this indicates where the Chiefs are planning on addressing RB -- late Day 3, or UDFA.

Dexter's actually kind of an intriguing sleeper in my view, provided his testing numbers indicate legitimate speed that can translate to the NFL. But I don't think he'd be ready to be a 3-down player in year one. Right now he profiles as a 2-down back.

A depth-chart of D. Williams, D. Williams, and D. Williams would be amusing.

[FantasyFreak]

https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1101151142489276418

Has this been posted here yet? I'm on mobile, it's hard to scroll through all the posts since I was last here with my budget electronic leash.

I think Veach is proud of himself for signing Williams after '17, and proud of himself for extending Williams last year before he starred in the playoffs. I think he's Williams' biggest supporter, and perhaps the best factor to note in Williams' favor (for our purposes) going into the draft.

If Veach loves Williams, it seems unlikely he'll use a premium pick on one of this draft's top RB prospects.

KC most needs to address their edge rush (with Justin Houston fading), their linebackers, their cornerbacks... most of their defense. Probably safety too, considering Eric Berry is forever snake-bit. Inability by their defense to do anything about the Pats' ball-control in the playoffs is why they didn't get to the Super Bowl. RB shouldn't be a priority right now.


edit: Oh, one more thing. Saw reports that the Chiefs have had several meetings with Dexter Williams. Not regarded as one of this draft's top RB prospects, I suspect this indicates where the Chiefs are planning on addressing RB -- late Day 3, or UDFA.

Dexter's actually kind of an intriguing sleeper in my view, provided his testing numbers indicate legitimate speed that can translate to the NFL. But I don't think he'd be ready to be a 3-down player in year one. Right now he profiles as a 2-down back.

A depth-chart of D. Williams, D. Williams, and D. Williams would be amusing.

Just need to bring De'ngelo out of retirement so they can carry 4.

[ArrylT]

LOL thanks for the Monty Python link!

This has been a fun thread - and I have no doubt this discussion is going to continue much like the Chris Carson one did last season - for a long while until something definitely happens and even beyond that occurrence.

I pretty much agree that Williams is not ever going to be considered an elite back - but I dont think that really matter much. Like with players like Tyrell Williams, at this stage their initial draft pedigree matters little - they've already passed the average length of an NFL career and proven that they belong. What is going to matter is how much of a role & how long will his role last in a good offence be? Plus of course how much that is worth to you as an owner. And thats something we are going to keep discussing all off-season.

[Elroypedro]

I’m a lifelong Niners fan and former season ticket holder before they moved to Santa Clara. I’m also a Matt Breida and Damien Williams owner in the team in my sig, which is my favorite league. Because of those facts I’m currently evaluating Jerick McKinnon to decide if I want to package Williams plus a pick or a young depth WR for McKinnon to secure both pieces of the Niners backfield in Shananhan’s explosive scheme.

So I’ve been watching tape. Every single touch from Breida and Williams last year. And every single touch from McKinnon in 2017-18. Plus some extra blocking tape.

First thing that jumps out is that both Breida and Williams seem like a tier above McKinnon in the most important aspects I’m looking for.

First, Breida stands out above the other two in speed. Williams and McKinnon are both fast(Williams slightly more, he gets around the corner and downfield better than McKinnon), but Breida is elite. Fast as.

Second, elusiveness. Again, all three backs are good, but both Williams and Breida make better light cuts and accelerate, while McKinnon dances and horizontal jump cuts but doesn’t accelerate as well out of them. McKinnon also hunts for contact more. Because of that McKinnon had a lot of negative and very short plays when the other two backs look like they would have managed to elude the tackler in that situation and get upfield. Not as bad, but McKinnon looked like Alex Collins a lot.

Third, power. This is where McKinnon has the clear edge. At the second level he, like I said above, hunts for contact, falls forward, dishes outphysicality to safeties. Breida can too to some degree but his injury really hampered him in this regard. Williams can run for power, as he did well at the goal line and carried piles several times for like 5+ yards, but he avoids hard contact often pulling up or going out of bounds instead.

Fourth, pass blocking. All three look more than competent. They are all plus pass blockers. Didn’t see many breakdowns, all anchor well and take up space. Again, McKinnon looked the most seasoned and reliable but they are close enough that the difference seems negligible. Granted, I didn’t watch every snap, but saw each pass blocking a few dozen times.

Fifth, pass catching. Williams is the best pass catcher here, followed by Breida. McKinnon is WAY overrated. He caught a lot of balls, but had an incredible number of drops. I counted almost 10 legitimate drops for him out of about 70ish targets I think. Really bad hands. Whereas, in contrast, Williams dropped 1 ball that I saw. Breida a few. All 3 make their living on screens. I’d much rather have the ball in Williams or Breida’s hands on these screens after watching the tape.


Just my honest assessment. I won’t be going after McKinnon. He may do something this year in SF if he is healthy, but I don’t see a big future with them or elsewhere beyond that. He isn’t special. Whereas both Breida and Williams display much more on their tape, including some really elite skills. I am quite confident holding both at this point after what I see.



Lastly, the numbers. Looking at them now after watching the tape and writing the above...

McKinnon 2017-18:
150 for 570 and 3TDs rushing. 3.8ypc
51/68 for 421 and 2TDs receiving. 8.3ypr. 75% catch rate

Breida 2018-19:
153 for 814 and 3TDs rushing. 5.3ypc
27/31 for 261 and 2TDs receiving. 9.7ypr. 87% catch rate

Williams 2018-19:
50 for 256 and 4TDs. 5.1ypc
23/24 for 160 and 2TDs. 7.0ypr. 96% catch rate
(Add in the 2 playoff games and Williams had 2x as many TDs in less than half the games played and about half the touches as the other two guys, making his TD rate about 4x that of either other guy)


Stats seem to back up the tape pretty clearly. Now, does that make Williams “elite” or irreplaceable. No way. A top 2 round back(especially in 2020) would likely be a strong candidate to replace him. Bell, Coleman, Ingram would also. But for now, I feel MUCH more strongly positive about him after deep diving into his tape versus the comps of Breida and McKinnon above. And, as I mentioned, I come out much higher than I thought on Breida and much lower on McKinnon. Hope this helps. If not, I advise to go checkout the tape yourself!

[ninotoreS]

That's a quality post. Thanks for sharing.

[Huh]

That’s what I’m talking about. He passes the eye test. He was a top few back in his particular class (not a great class) and got railroaded. He has talent. He’s not mixon but he isn’t chopped liver. Oooomixononthechieeefs...

[Huh]

And look at that. Many of our favorite mid round backs that are going to steal this job are running slow as molasses. Go get Damien before it’s too late.

[Cameron Giles]

"GM Brett Veach smiled when he said he could definitely envision Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield in the backfield for Kansas City."

^This type of mid round RB is the biggest fear DW owners should have

[Orenthal Shames]

"GM Brett Veach smiled when he said he could definitely envision Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield in the backfield for Kansas City."

^This type of mid round RB is the biggest fear DW owners should have

He's going to get an earful from his old man after that performance.

[ArrylT]

That's a quality post. Thanks for sharing.

I concur - much appreciated reading that.