Peterson / Guice in DC

This is the spot for player-to-player comparisons.

If Peterson is resigned in 2019, what’s the workload split like in 2019?

Even Split - Committee Backfield (both useless in fantasy)
12
11%
Guice wins starting job in training camp and is a stud all year while AP is his handcuff
32
28%
AP keeps starting job (Guice is simply his handcuff)
5
4%
Guice is eased in and a flex play to start the season but becomes a 3-down stud in the second half
50
44%
No one in this backfield is considered a stud for any part of 2019.
15
13%
 
Total votes: 114

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:18 pm

There’s no way Peterson ends up as handcuff ... he not mentally cut out for a diminished role. Once Guice wins the workhorse role, the Counrdown on Peterson’s time with the Redskins begins.

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Ice » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:42 pm

Never much of a fan of Guice but for those that own him this is really not good news at all. AP can still play so RBBC is about the best you can hope for this season.

AP put up 1250 total yards at a 4.2 YPC on a team that was a mess. Probably a 70/30 split for AP. AP needs 784 yards to move into 5th all time. Have to think they will give him that chance.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby ArrylT » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:44 pm

There was talk in previous months that Guices recovery would be delayed and he might not be 100% by seasons opening. We saw in Miami that elite veteran talent can hold off younger less elite talent - so I think this is a combination of the Redskins hedging against Guice, like they did with Keenum against Smith & the fact that Adrian Peterson still has legs. I see this like a Carson/Penny situation with Peterson as Carson or perhaps Lindsay/Freeman. Basically a committee with Peterson getting 200+ touches unless he gets injured & Guice proves he is 100% and ready for a 3 down role.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Elroypedro » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:39 pm

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington- ... rson-4753/

ADs contract is quite low base and signing and low cap hit. He turns 34 in like a week and could easily be cut after this year with only a $750k cap hit next year. I think he is being brought back to ease Guice into a full time role. I’m sure Wash will get whatever they can out of him this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if after we the first few games of the season he still maintains some usage behind Guice, maybe spelling Guice for a series or two each half. But he really struggled in the second half the season last year from fatigue, as many posited he would after his hot start. Like, really struggled.

In his final 9 games he was 120 carries for 455y at 3.7ypc, and 3 TDs. And 11 receptions for 57y and 0 TDs. In 9 games.

And if you take away the 1 long run 90 yard TD run he broke(which isn’t fair but still it is a major outlier and illustrates a point), he was 119 for 365y, 3.0ypc, 2 TDs, in his final 9 games played.

There were also other mitigating circumstances hurting AD down the stretch, like Wash OL injuries and Alex Smith going down, but his decline started well before Smith’s injury. In the two games prior to Smith’s injury, AD was 28 for 85y, 3.0ypc and 0 TDs.

Basically, in more than the entire second half of the season last year AD was unacceptably bad as a starting RB in the NFL.
Team 1
10 team .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
WR: A Brown, Jeffery, Robinson, Ridley, Pettis, Miller, Shepard, Callaway, MVS, Washington
TE: Kelce, Herndon

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

*2018 Champ*

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:11 pm

Elroypedro wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:39 pm https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington- ... rson-4753/

ADs contract is quite low base and signing and low cap hit. He turns 34 in like a week and could easily be cut after this year with only a $750k cap hit next year. I think he is being brought back to ease Guice into a full time role. I’m sure Wash will get whatever they can out of him this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if after we the first few games of the season he still maintains some usage behind Guice, maybe spelling Guice for a series or two each half. But he really struggled in the second half the season last year from fatigue, as many posited he would after his hot start. Like, really struggled.

In his final 9 games he was 120 carries for 455y at 3.7ypc, and 3 TDs. And 11 receptions for 57y and 0 TDs. In 9 games.

And if you take away the 1 long run 90 yard TD run he broke(which isn’t fair but still it is a major outlier and illustrates a point), he was 119 for 365y, 3.0ypc, 2 TDs, in his final 9 games played.

There were also other mitigating circumstances hurting AD down the stretch, like Wash OL injuries and Alex Smith going down, but his decline started well before Smith’s injury. In the two games prior to Smith’s injury, AD was 28 for 85y, 3.0ypc and 0 TDs.

Basically, in more than the entire second half of the season last year AD was unacceptably bad as a starting RB in the NFL.
Dude, that offensive line was totally decimated with injuries the 2nd half of last year. Football is a team sport and context means a hell of a lot more than those silly numbers.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Elroypedro » Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:46 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:11 pm
Elroypedro wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:39 pm https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington- ... rson-4753/

ADs contract is quite low base and signing and low cap hit. He turns 34 in like a week and could easily be cut after this year with only a $750k cap hit next year. I think he is being brought back to ease Guice into a full time role. I’m sure Wash will get whatever they can out of him this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if after we the first few games of the season he still maintains some usage behind Guice, maybe spelling Guice for a series or two each half. But he really struggled in the second half the season last year from fatigue, as many posited he would after his hot start. Like, really struggled.

In his final 9 games he was 120 carries for 455y at 3.7ypc, and 3 TDs. And 11 receptions for 57y and 0 TDs. In 9 games.

And if you take away the 1 long run 90 yard TD run he broke(which isn’t fair but still it is a major outlier and illustrates a point), he was 119 for 365y, 3.0ypc, 2 TDs, in his final 9 games played.

There were also other mitigating circumstances hurting AD down the stretch, like Wash OL injuries and Alex Smith going down, but his decline started well before Smith’s injury. In the two games prior to Smith’s injury, AD was 28 for 85y, 3.0ypc and 0 TDs.

Basically, in more than the entire second half of the season last year AD was unacceptably bad as a starting RB in the NFL.
Dude, that offensive line was totally decimated with injuries the 2nd half of last year. Football is a team sport and context means a hell of a lot more than those silly numbers.
Trent Brown was the big name missing from the line. He is one of, if not the, best pass blocker in the NFL, but a below average run blocker. One of their replacements Nsekhe actually was a plus over the othe rinjured lineman, although he was filling in for Brown and not them. I’m not saying the line was very good the second half of the season, but their run blocking was not bad, and graded out marginally better than Hou, Chi, NYG, Buf, TB, and significantly better than NYJ. And even if, which isn’t true, Wash line was the worst in the league, AD’s numbers in his final 9 games would still be unacceptably low for a starting RB in the NFL. There is the context.
Team 1
10 team .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
WR: A Brown, Jeffery, Robinson, Ridley, Pettis, Miller, Shepard, Callaway, MVS, Washington
TE: Kelce, Herndon

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

*2018 Champ*

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:24 pm

Seems to me Peterson being re-signed is just fine for Guice in dynasty terms.

For company on his depth-chart, would Guice owners rather have

a.) a 34 year old

b.) a younger free-agent signing with an actual future

c.) another Day 2 draft pick


The obvious answer is a.). No?

Y'all didn't actually think Washington would add nothing at all to the RB depth-chart, did you? This is going to be a run-first, run-heavy offense, and Guice was never going to get 30 carries a week out of the gate. Peterson should be no more worrisome to Guice drafters than Blount was to KJ drafters.

And remember, we're talking about a kid that intentionally went to go play with Leo Fournette when he had other offers from big schools with less depth-chart competition. He's probably excited asf to play with, learn from, and beat Canton-bound Adrian Peterson.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:26 pm

Elroypedro wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:46 pm
Hottoddies wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:11 pm
Elroypedro wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:39 pm https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington- ... rson-4753/

ADs contract is quite low base and signing and low cap hit. He turns 34 in like a week and could easily be cut after this year with only a $750k cap hit next year. I think he is being brought back to ease Guice into a full time role. I’m sure Wash will get whatever they can out of him this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if after we the first few games of the season he still maintains some usage behind Guice, maybe spelling Guice for a series or two each half. But he really struggled in the second half the season last year from fatigue, as many posited he would after his hot start. Like, really struggled.

In his final 9 games he was 120 carries for 455y at 3.7ypc, and 3 TDs. And 11 receptions for 57y and 0 TDs. In 9 games.

And if you take away the 1 long run 90 yard TD run he broke(which isn’t fair but still it is a major outlier and illustrates a point), he was 119 for 365y, 3.0ypc, 2 TDs, in his final 9 games played.

There were also other mitigating circumstances hurting AD down the stretch, like Wash OL injuries and Alex Smith going down, but his decline started well before Smith’s injury. In the two games prior to Smith’s injury, AD was 28 for 85y, 3.0ypc and 0 TDs.

Basically, in more than the entire second half of the season last year AD was unacceptably bad as a starting RB in the NFL.
Dude, that offensive line was totally decimated with injuries the 2nd half of last year. Football is a team sport and context means a hell of a lot more than those silly numbers.
Trent Brown was the big name missing from the line. He is one of, if not the, best pass blocker in the NFL, but a below average run blocker. One of their replacements Nsekhe actually was a plus over the othe rinjured lineman, although he was filling in for Brown and not them. I’m not saying the line was very good the second half of the season, but their run blocking was not bad, and graded out marginally better than Hou, Chi, NYG, Buf, TB, and significantly better than NYJ. And even if, which isn’t true, Wash line was the worst in the league, AD’s numbers in his final 9 games would still be unacceptably low for a starting RB in the NFL. There is the context.
Starting offensive linemen; LT Trent Williams, RT Morgan Moses, LG Brandon Scherzo, and RG Shawn Lauvao all dealt with various injuries and missed time last year. They were signing guys off the street in early November to fill out the squad. And losing two QBs didn't really help matters either. That team was a limping disaster by the end of last year. Sure Peterson is older now and bound to show a little wear by the end of the year but lets get real here. You can't compare a RB on that team to the rest of the NFL. But I'm sure your Guice will do just fine this year, so no worries.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Ice » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 pm

If the Redskins didn't think Peterson could play they would not have given him a check for 1.5 Million and money of around 2.5 million this year.

Any reasonable person that watched the decimation of the Redskins last year should understand. This team had to play 4 QB's last year due to injury not to mention a myriad of other offensive injuries in the line, WR, TE, and their 3rd down back.

Putting that on AP really doesn't make any sense. Obviously, the Redskins hope Guice is healthy and can contribute and I get many that drafted him ridiculously high will justify the pick but he was the 7th RB drafted for multiple reasons and they were not all off field issues.

By the time they got to Mr. Butt Fumble, teams could put everyone on the line. If one wants context as to how good the line was, Sanchez averaged 3.9 yards per completed pass with 7 sacks and 3 interceptions in his 2 games.

In this case, throw the stats out the window.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:36 pm

Ice wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 pm If the Redskins didn't think Peterson could play they would not have given him a check for 1.5 Million and money of around 2.5 million this year.

Any reasonable person that watched the decimation of the Redskins last year should understand. This team had to play 4 QB's last year due to injury not to mention a myriad of other offensive injuries in the line, WR, TE, and their 3rd down back.

Putting that on AP really doesn't make any sense. Obviously, the Redskins hope Guice is healthy and can contribute and I get many that drafted him ridiculously high will justify the pick but he was the 7th RB drafted for multiple reasons and they were not all off field issues.

By the time they got to Mr. Butt Fumble, teams could put everyone on the line. If one wants context as to how good the line was, Sanchez averaged 3.9 yards per completed pass with 7 sacks and 3 interceptions in his 2 games.

In this case, throw the stats out the window.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Elroypedro » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:09 pm

Ice wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 pm If the Redskins didn't think Peterson could play they would not have given him a check for 1.5 Million and money of around 2.5 million this year.

Any reasonable person that watched the decimation of the Redskins last year should understand. This team had to play 4 QB's last year due to injury not to mention a myriad of other offensive injuries in the line, WR, TE, and their 3rd down back.

Putting that on AP really doesn't make any sense. Obviously, the Redskins hope Guice is healthy and can contribute and I get many that drafted him ridiculously high will justify the pick but he was the 7th RB drafted for multiple reasons and they were not all off field issues.

By the time they got to Mr. Butt Fumble, teams could put everyone on the line. If one wants context as to how good the line was, Sanchez averaged 3.9 yards per completed pass with 7 sacks and 3 interceptions in his 2 games.

In this case, throw the stats out the window.
Adrian Peterson faced incredibly low rates of stacked boxes. Some of the lowest in the league. 6.8 average men in the box, and 14.7% of Stacked Box Carries, good for 42 and 46th highest in the league. Teams did not “put everyone on the line.” If you didn’t watch the games or look at the stats how do you possibly come out and make that statement?

His DVOA was -6.2%, good for 44th in the league. His True YPC(Defense adjusted) was 3.8 ypc, 49th best in the NFL. So despite all the circumstantial evidence you claim exists, his season long numbers, including when he had a entire healthy roster, still put him at well below replacement level back. I think that was pretty obvious from watching him outside of a few early season games where he ran super hard. He just couldn’t maintain that intensity at his age and overall his season ended up being a poor one.

I also think if he is used sparingly though in this upcoming year he could maintain that intensity for short bouts, which coupled with his obvious HOF talent, could be valuable to the Redskins in spelling Guice. But he is definitely not able to hold much of a load anymore, and will be 34 in a week and likely a bit slower and have less in the tank than last year for no other reason than age.
Last edited by Elroypedro on Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Team 1
10 team .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
WR: A Brown, Jeffery, Robinson, Ridley, Pettis, Miller, Shepard, Callaway, MVS, Washington
TE: Kelce, Herndon

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

*2018 Champ*

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:11 pm

I very much doubt Guice gets a full workload to start the year. His health is still a question, and they won't be competitive, so why risk him right away? He eventually will, but you need to roster 3 backs, at the least, and AP was the obvious choice.
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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Ice » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:43 am

Elroypedro wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:09 pm
Ice wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 pm If the Redskins didn't think Peterson could play they would not have given him a check for 1.5 Million and money of around 2.5 million this year.

Any reasonable person that watched the decimation of the Redskins last year should understand. This team had to play 4 QB's last year due to injury not to mention a myriad of other offensive injuries in the line, WR, TE, and their 3rd down back.

Putting that on AP really doesn't make any sense. Obviously, the Redskins hope Guice is healthy and can contribute and I get many that drafted him ridiculously high will justify the pick but he was the 7th RB drafted for multiple reasons and they were not all off field issues.

By the time they got to Mr. Butt Fumble, teams could put everyone on the line. If one wants context as to how good the line was, Sanchez averaged 3.9 yards per completed pass with 7 sacks and 3 interceptions in his 2 games.

In this case, throw the stats out the window.
Adrian Peterson faced incredibly low rates of stacked boxes. Some of the lowest in the league. 6.8 average men in the box, and 14.7% of Stacked Box Carries, good for 42 and 46th highest in the league. Teams did not “put everyone on the line.” If you didn’t watch the games or look at the stats how do you possibly come out and make that statement?

His DVOA was -6.2%, good for 44th in the league. His True YPC(Defense adjusted) was 3.8 ypc, 49th best in the NFL. So despite all the circumstantial evidence you claim exists, his season long numbers, including when he had a entire healthy roster, still put him at well below replacement level back. I think that was pretty obvious from watching him outside of a few early season games where he ran super hard. He just couldn’t maintain that intensity at his age and overall his season ended up being a poor one.

I also think if he is used sparingly though in this upcoming year he could maintain that intensity for short bouts, which coupled with his obvious HOF talent, could be valuable to the Redskins in spelling Guice. But he is definitely not able to hold much of a load anymore, and will be 34 in a week and likely a bit slower and have less in the tank than last year for no other reason than age.

There are Lies, There are Damn Lies, and there are Stats......


I get your love in PFF and all but give it a rest. We all know AP is long in the tooth. We also know PFF is really good with stats but the reality is no NFL back would have good stats on the Redskins last year.

AP was actually pretty good when one looks at the totality of what happened to that team last year. As a Cowboy fan, I can't believe I have to defend the Redskins in any way but they had more injuries last season by, I suspect, a wide margin than any franchise in the league.

Now onto the Nuance of the English language with a little sarcasm thrown in:
(I highlighted in red the actual reality)

Could does not mean teams actually did but quoting a few words in a sentence from me completely out of context doesn't help whatever statistical argument you are actually trying to make.

Didn't anyone ever tell you when you are in hole it might make sense to stop digging.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Elroypedro » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:05 am

Ice wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:43 am
Elroypedro wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:09 pm
Ice wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 pm If the Redskins didn't think Peterson could play they would not have given him a check for 1.5 Million and money of around 2.5 million this year.

Any reasonable person that watched the decimation of the Redskins last year should understand. This team had to play 4 QB's last year due to injury not to mention a myriad of other offensive injuries in the line, WR, TE, and their 3rd down back.

Putting that on AP really doesn't make any sense. Obviously, the Redskins hope Guice is healthy and can contribute and I get many that drafted him ridiculously high will justify the pick but he was the 7th RB drafted for multiple reasons and they were not all off field issues.

By the time they got to Mr. Butt Fumble, teams could put everyone on the line. If one wants context as to how good the line was, Sanchez averaged 3.9 yards per completed pass with 7 sacks and 3 interceptions in his 2 games.

In this case, throw the stats out the window.
Adrian Peterson faced incredibly low rates of stacked boxes. Some of the lowest in the league. 6.8 average men in the box, and 14.7% of Stacked Box Carries, good for 42 and 46th highest in the league. Teams did not “put everyone on the line.” If you didn’t watch the games or look at the stats how do you possibly come out and make that statement?

His DVOA was -6.2%, good for 44th in the league. His True YPC(Defense adjusted) was 3.8 ypc, 49th best in the NFL. So despite all the circumstantial evidence you claim exists, his season long numbers, including when he had a entire healthy roster, still put him at well below replacement level back. I think that was pretty obvious from watching him outside of a few early season games where he ran super hard. He just couldn’t maintain that intensity at his age and overall his season ended up being a poor one.

I also think if he is used sparingly though in this upcoming year he could maintain that intensity for short bouts, which coupled with his obvious HOF talent, could be valuable to the Redskins in spelling Guice. But he is definitely not able to hold much of a load anymore, and will be 34 in a week and likely a bit slower and have less in the tank than last year for no other reason than age.

There are Lies, There are Damn Lies, and there are Stats......


I get your love in PFF and all but give it a rest. We all know AP is long in the tooth. We also know PFF is really good with stats but the reality is no NFL back would have good stats on the Redskins last year.

AP was actually pretty good when one looks at the totality of what happened to that team last year. As a Cowboy fan, I can't believe I have to defend the Redskins in any way but they had more injuries last season by, I suspect, a wide margin than any franchise in the league.

Now onto the Nuance of the English language with a little sarcasm thrown in:
(I highlighted in red the actual reality)

Could does not mean teams actually did but quoting a few words in a sentence from me completely out of context doesn't help whatever statistical argument you are actually trying to make.

Didn't anyone ever tell you when you are in hole it might make sense to stop digging.
These stats are clearly telling a picture, and a robust one at that. When coupled with each other and the tape they are not lies, that is a lazy and disingenuous way to approach facts.

As to your other point: you said that teams “could put everyone on the line,” but I am saying they factually did not. And you are now arguing that all you are saying is that they “could.” What is the reason for posting such a nonsequitor statement? They “could” put 9, or 10, or 11 men in the box as well. Of course they didn’t, but I guess they “could.” And you’re doubling down on that statement?

I have a sense that the goal of your above post was to just drag this thread off topic and cover up your bad previous analysis by shifting the focus onto petty arguments rather than facts. If that isn’t the case then maybe just stick to the facts. I am not the one digging a hole with my posts, but even in just responding to yours I feel in danger of falling/being dragged down into one.
Team 1
10 team .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
WR: A Brown, Jeffery, Robinson, Ridley, Pettis, Miller, Shepard, Callaway, MVS, Washington
TE: Kelce, Herndon

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

*2018 Champ*

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Re: Peterson / Guice in DC

Postby Ice » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:29 am

Blisters on your hands by now from all the digging I suspect; I have to say, you take literalism to levels rarely seen on fantasy football boards.

Good luck with that!
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