Kerryon Johnson Value

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Kerryon Johnson value

Early 1st
104
55%
Mid 1st
51
27%
Late 1st
22
12%
Early 2nd
7
4%
Mid 2nd
1
1%
Late 2nd
4
2%
 
Total votes: 189

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue May 22, 2018 1:53 pm

MEuRaH wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:42 am Dude has great size and speed
He verifiably doesn't have either.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby MEuRaH » Tue May 22, 2018 2:05 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 1:53 pm
MEuRaH wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:42 am Dude has great size and speed
He verifiably doesn't have either.
You're not wrong. I should have said "he plays big & fast".

But he's not a midget and he's not slow. I remember when Bell had a slow-ish 40 time and everyone was chastising him for it.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby dynastyninja » Tue May 22, 2018 8:58 pm

MEuRaH wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 1:48 pm
dynastyninja wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 12:04 pmI don't think he has that much talent, so landing spot does matter. He doesn't have a clear path to the starting job, and I don't think he's good enough to snatch the job and hold onto it for 3-5 years.
I had to search our discussion history, because I've seen your name a ton and you always seem to disagree with me. Here's what I found:

Reggie Bush: I hated him at 29, said getting a 2nd rounder for him was "good". You disagreed, said he should be worth a first. Direct quote: "I would be very surprised if he didn't last two years. I'm expecting at least three." He carried the ball just 76 times for under 300 yards in year 1. Barely ever touched the ball again after that.

AJG vs Jimmy Graham: You preferred JG, and I said AJG. I correctly predicted that Jimmy G would be on a small decline, before he became mostly irrelevant while AJG has flourished. I was actually called some names or disagreed with rather heavily in that one.

Mike Williams: I said he was done, you disagreed. For the rest of his entire football career, he had 9 catches.

Reggie Bush again: He went to SF and you said "He is a superior talent to Hyde". I said: "Superior talent? Not even close imo. Hyde is the clear #1." This time, you did not berate me like you did in the other posts... you just disagreed. Did you have a Reggie Bush man crush?

CJ Anderson: lol, HILARIOUSLY, we were both really high on the CJ Anderson train. I still think he had great talent but injuries derailed him for the 2 solid years I believed in him. I jumped ship at the start of last season, telling someone to sell him for a 1st, but you held tight. I even said CJA > Gurley, and after year 1 I thought I nailed it. Woops! Good memories of that one.

AJG vs Antonio Brown: You correctly said Brown had more value and belonged in the "big 5" discussion. I said he belonged in the discussion, but "wasn't there yet".

There was also a post I made where I was trying to talk up Kelvin Benjamin. I owned the guy and was trying to trade him to another owner in my league, and I knew the guy frequented these forums so I was trying to talk him up. Then you came along and talked him right back down. I even admitted that on my final reply in the thread.

That's everything I could find. Looks like I got the lead, therefore I must be right. KJ will be awesome! Take it to the bank!
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue May 22, 2018 9:10 pm

MEuRaH wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 2:05 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 1:53 pm
MEuRaH wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:42 am Dude has great size and speed
He verifiably doesn't have either.
You're not wrong. I should have said "he plays big & fast".

But he's not a midget and he's not slow. I remember when Bell had a slow-ish 40 time and everyone was chastising him for it.
Yeah but bell was over 230 LBs with his time, and KJ is nowhere near that. Bell also had a 6.75 3 cone, which is insane at that weight. If Bell did a 3 cone at his current weight it would probably be below 6.50.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby MEuRaH » Wed May 23, 2018 1:29 pm

@dynastyninja: No response because you're confused? Simplified: We disagreed a lot in the past and I've come out on top almost every time. The time I was wrong wasn't even that bad since AJG is still elite after all these years.

@FantasyFreak: I hear you and you make a valid point. However, all top running backs to ever play the game are all 5-11ish, 210 pounds. Kerryon is that exactly. Not saying that this alone makes him elite, but history shows that this size isn't detrimental at all. In fact, it's been the exact opposite.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby dynastyninja » Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pm

MEuRaH wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 1:29 pm @dynastyninja: No response because you're confused? Simplified: We disagreed a lot in the past and I've come out on top almost every time. The time I was wrong wasn't even that bad since AJG is still elite after all these years.

@FantasyFreak: I hear you and you make a valid point. However, all top running backs to ever play the game are all 5-11ish, 210 pounds. Kerryon is that exactly. Not saying that this alone makes him elite, but history shows that this size isn't detrimental at all. In fact, it's been the exact opposite.
I know you as the CJA guy, that's it. You seem to think I'm specifically targeting you when 3-4 of my ~2000 posts have been in disagreement with you. Congratulations on being right on the aforementioned. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to dig up some calls you got wrong.

This nonsense doesn't change the fact that Kerryon isn't special. He could definitely produce for 1-3 years depending on how things shake out in Detroit, but I don't see long-term relevance and staying power. He was actually a guy I was looking at pre-draft, but that was when I thought he'd be a 2nd rounder in rookie drafts. Now that he's as high as a mid-first, no chance I touch him.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 23, 2018 3:33 pm

The more Kerryon Johnson tape I study, the higher up my board he moves.

I dismissed him at first like a lot of people did. But I'm discovering that PFF graded him the SEC's best RB in '17 with good reason.

So long as his shoulder injury history doesn't become an issue (and it might), Kerryon has the hallmarks of a player that's going to be a better pro than college player, and he was already a very good college player.

Bear in mind he's not even 21 yet (for reference, Sony Michel is more than two years older) with a frame that's not maxed out; with an NFL strength and conditioning program I won't be shocked at all if he adds 5-10lbs of muscle to his frame. At 5'11-ish", 220-ish lbs he'd be right at standard size for an NFL feature-back. Johnson's a multi-gear runner with burst to spare, and these aspects of athleticism typically aren't diminished by putting on a little extra muscle.

Also, don't sleep on Detroit's O-line improving markedly in '18 or '19. Ragnow dominated SEC D-linemen and can play multiple positions. Tyrell Crosby is potentially a steal in the 5th round; he had a Day 2 grade on many boards.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 1:53 pm
MEuRaH wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:42 am Dude has great size and speed
He verifiably doesn't have either.
I fear that 'turd sandwich' comp will haunt you.
dynastyninja wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pm This nonsense doesn't change the fact that Kerryon isn't special
I really hate it when people call an unsubstantiated opinion 'fact'.

Like, vicious pet peeve. I have to fight back the impulse to flame, every time.

Please don't do it. For me. :pray:
dynastyninja wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pm He could definitely produce for 1-3 years depending on how things shake out in Detroit
You know, three good fantasy seasons from an RB is very valuable, and totally worth a rookie-draft 1st round pick.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby MEuRaH » Wed May 23, 2018 4:36 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pmI'm sure it wouldn't be hard to dig up some calls you got wrong.
To be honest it was surprisingly difficult. If you go back to 2015 & 2014, I was wrong a lot, especially on WRs. I stopped giving advice on WRs and I haven't been wrong much since lol. I was a RB coach for 5 years, so it's been useful.
ninotoreS wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 3:33 pmThe more Kerryon Johnson tape I study, the higher up my board he moves.

I'm discovering that PFF graded him the SEC's best RB in '17 with good reason.

Kerryon has the hallmarks of a player that's going to be a better pro than college player, and he was already a very good college player.

Bear in mind he's not even 21 yet

Johnson's a multi-gear runner with burst to spare

Also, don't sleep on Detroit's O-line improving markedly in '18 or '19. Ragnow dominated SEC D-linemen and can play multiple positions. Tyrell Crosby is potentially a steal in the 5th round; he had a Day 2 grade on many boards.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby dynastyninja » Wed May 23, 2018 4:51 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 3:33 pm
dynastyninja wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pm He could definitely produce for 1-3 years depending on how things shake out in Detroit
You know, three good fantasy seasons from an RB is very valuable, and totally worth a rookie-draft 1st round pick.
Three seasons would be worth the investment. I understand the possibility and could see it happen, but I doubt he gets more than two. Two would also be fine, but again, I don't think he's special and irreplaceable.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby dynastyninja » Wed May 23, 2018 5:06 pm

I'm not anti-KJ. In my current rookie rankings he's 10th. There's the possibility that he translates really well to the pro game, but I'm thinking the likelihood of him not holding onto the job after ~2 years is higher, so I'd rather not invest in him. That's all assuming that he even wins the workhorse role, which he may not even do this year. Blount leaving next year would put him in position, but there's more risk than I'd like. When looking at it from an asset allocation perspective and reviewing what eggs I want to place in the basket that is my team, I'd rather trade out for a future first over taking KJ, just because there's more risk than I'd like.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby Vcize » Wed May 23, 2018 5:22 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 3:33 pm The more Kerryon Johnson tape I study, the higher up my board he moves.

I dismissed him at first like a lot of people did. But I'm discovering that PFF graded him the SEC's best RB in '17 with good reason.
I am right there with you. Kerryon and Pettis are two guys that I initially wrote off but was pleasantly surprised with once I started digging in to their tape.

Pettis is a really natural, vacuum hands catcher, and Kerryon is a really patient runner with great short-area burst to get through the hole when it opens up.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby gaz29 » Thu May 24, 2018 12:20 pm

Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooke's compared his running style to that of L Bell. Now I'm not saying he is going to have a Bell type career but they are two respected former NFL scouts and I would tend to believe what they say.

Also it must have some credence that a team traded up to take him.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby ImaRounder » Thu May 24, 2018 3:38 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pm This nonsense doesn't change the fact that Kerryon isn't special
I really hate it when people call an unsubstantiated opinion 'fact'.



Preach.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby thebeast » Thu May 24, 2018 5:55 pm

There are definitely some flags planted really well in this thread. The last few posts have me interested in revisiting some tape on KJ, but I still don’t see how he could leap Guice, RoJo, Chubb, or Penny. I can see putting him above Michel and Freeman

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Re: Kerryon Johnson in Detroit

Postby MEuRaH » Fri May 25, 2018 6:01 am

thebeast wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 5:55 pmThere are definitely some flags planted really well in this thread. The last few posts have me interested in revisiting some tape on KJ, but I still don’t see how he could leap Guice, RoJo, Chubb, or Penny. I can see putting him above Michel and Freeman
Sweet. I wanna be like that car salesman who sees you have interest, and tries to close the deal.

His game vs Alabama, which was his game vs the most-NFL ready team, is probably the best tape of his to watch. He was bottled up really well by Bama, who admitted that stopping him was key to their defense, but he still rushed for over 100 yards. Anyway, check out this 7 yard run @ 3:49:

-- At the beginning of the play, which is designed to go through left-side A gap (between left center/guard) Kerryon was able to stop his full-speed momentum right at the line of scrimmage (which in itself is amazing), shake off a D-lineman, sink his hips and cut right, notice another would-be tackler and at a split second, sink his hips and cut left, then sink his hips a THIRD TIME (wtf) for a quick burst forward. He sees a defender on the left side, and since he's carrying the ball on his left hand, he spins away from the defending, keeping the ball safe (no time to switch hands), and using his free hand to push away, all while keeping his momentum going downfield, making 4 defenders take him to the ground. He turns a 0 yard gain into a 7 yard gain all by himself. (Scroll to 3:49).



Like.... wtf!? That's pretty amazing. If you watch that entire video, check out his pass protection. That's the kind of skills that'll get young guys onto the field for all 3 downs.

The only down side is that his new offensive line has been ranked towards the bottom of the league these last 2 years. They drafted 2 guys to help, and maybe a whole new coaching staff can help turns things around. Gotta wait and see.
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