Kerryon Johnson Value

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.

Kerryon Johnson value

Early 1st
103
59%
Mid 1st
47
27%
Late 1st
15
9%
Early 2nd
6
3%
Mid 2nd
1
1%
Late 2nd
2
1%
 
Total votes: 174

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:30 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:42 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am
What's this based off of? And what does it mean? Does it mean he starts for the first half of the year as they ease Kerryon in? Is this just a lazy hunch?
Aren't most replies here just a hunch, since nobody really knows what will happen and all we can use is whatever history gives us?
We can use what history gives us to make estimates about the future.

Or we can assume Patricia has "the Blount role" because Blount was there in 2018, as if that means anything about 2019 -- i.e. a lazy hunch.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:35 am

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:11 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am
What's this based off of? And what does it mean? Does it mean he starts for the first half of the year as they ease Kerryon in? Is this just a lazy hunch?
There's no "starter". I'm saying that DET likely wants to use a RBBC with an adjusted game plan week-to-week, much like both NE and DET have done for years. I would project rough stats in 2019 as follows:

Kerryon Johnson: 190 / 900 / 6 rushing & 50 / 500 / 3 receiving
CJ Anderson: 150 / 650 / 6 rushing & 30 / 200 / 2 receiving
Theo Riddick: 45 / 200 / 1 rushing & 50 / 450 / 3 receiving
No starter. Lol. There's no scenario when the gameplan will adjust to make CJ Anderson get more touches in a game than Kerryon Johnson. You're seeing ghosts.

Also projecting Riddick's carries to increase, KJ's to stay exactly the same per game despite him being eased in over the course of his rookie year, and expecting the entire team to go from a top-third rush volume to bottom-third rush volume despite bringing in Darrell Bevel.

None of this makes any sense. You're just making stuff up.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:35 am

The "lazy hunch" that you are accusing him of is based more on historical data than the "statistics" you utilized.

Yours is nothing more than a hunch either. To attempt to call someone out because their hunch differs from yours with nothing to back-up how they are wrong is ironically - lazy.
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:35 am
Also projecting Riddick's carries to increase, KJ's to stay exactly the same per game despite him being eased in over the course of his rookie year, and expecting the entire team to go from a top-third rush volume to bottom-third rush volume despite bringing in Darrell Bevel.
Actually - predicting Riddick at 45 carries for the year would be the exact same as 2018 assuming he plays 16 games instead of 14.
Of course, if you were not so lazy you would have checked that before trying to call someone out on it.

He also predicted a regression in catches.
Do you want a logical debate?
You are in the wrong place.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:45 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:35 am
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:11 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am
What's this based off of? And what does it mean? Does it mean he starts for the first half of the year as they ease Kerryon in? Is this just a lazy hunch?
There's no "starter". I'm saying that DET likely wants to use a RBBC with an adjusted game plan week-to-week, much like both NE and DET have done for years. I would project rough stats in 2019 as follows:

Kerryon Johnson: 190 / 900 / 6 rushing & 50 / 500 / 3 receiving
CJ Anderson: 150 / 650 / 6 rushing & 30 / 200 / 2 receiving
Theo Riddick: 45 / 200 / 1 rushing & 50 / 450 / 3 receiving
No starter. Lol. There's no scenario when the gameplan will adjust to make CJ Anderson get more touches in a game than Kerryon Johnson. You're seeing ghosts.

Also projecting Riddick's carries to increase, KJ's to stay exactly the same per game despite him being eased in over the course of his rookie year, and expecting the entire team to go from a top-third rush volume to bottom-third rush volume despite bringing in Darrell Bevel.

None of this makes any sense. You're just making stuff up.
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Yes...obviously projections are made up. No one knows the future.

How would you project the DET backfield's stats then if you so vehemently disagree with my projections?
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:10 am

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:45 am
How would you project the DET backfield's stats then if you so vehemently disagree with my projections?
They had 404 attempts last year, 18th in the league. I think it goes up with Bevel, with everything Patricia and Quinn are saying, call it 420. That'd've been 12th most in the league last year. Let's just start with 404 though, assume it stays constant. 25 a game.

I'd give Kerryon 50%-60% of those. Call it 55%. The leader of a committee. 13.8 a game, 220 total.

I'd give him 5 targets a game, what he was getting after he took over last year. One of two RBs to catch all catchable passes last year. 4 receptions a game, 64 total. You can read what Patricia has said about how they want to use him in the passing game.

220 carries + 60 catches assuming health. 280 touches. Nearly identical with Kamara in 2018.
14 att/g + 4rec/g.

Leaves 11 attempts for CJA and Zenner. Leaves a few rec for Riddick. Leaves them in a RBBC.

At his YPC and YPR from last year, that'd be 1230 rush yards + 400 rec yards. Yards per Carry probably decreases from 5.6. Yards per Rec probably comes up from 6.5. I'd safely keep YPR the same and drop YPC to 4.6 and that's still 1400 total yards.

Big difference from 190 attempts and 50 recs. There's no reason it should be that low when he earned more per game as a rookie.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:26 am

190 Attempts would put him in top 18 in the league.
220 would put him top 10 in the league based on last year.

190 is more realistic for KJ although I am not sold he will get that many given his running style. I would be surprised if he averaged top 10 in carries in the NFL.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby mgscott » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:34 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:35 am
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:11 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am
What's this based off of? And what does it mean? Does it mean he starts for the first half of the year as they ease Kerryon in? Is this just a lazy hunch?
There's no "starter". I'm saying that DET likely wants to use a RBBC with an adjusted game plan week-to-week, much like both NE and DET have done for years. I would project rough stats in 2019 as follows:

Kerryon Johnson: 190 / 900 / 6 rushing & 50 / 500 / 3 receiving
CJ Anderson: 150 / 650 / 6 rushing & 30 / 200 / 2 receiving
Theo Riddick: 45 / 200 / 1 rushing & 50 / 450 / 3 receiving
No starter. Lol. There's no scenario when the gameplan will adjust to make CJ Anderson get more touches in a game than Kerryon Johnson. You're seeing ghosts.

Also projecting Riddick's carries to increase, KJ's to stay exactly the same per game despite him being eased in over the course of his rookie year, and expecting the entire team to go from a top-third rush volume to bottom-third rush volume despite bringing in Darrell Bevel.

None of this makes any sense. You're just making stuff up.

Doesn't New England (the team Patricia is trying to emulate) change their game plan each week, especially with their RBs. They have featured much lesser RBs in a given week due to their game plan. Predicting carries and targets for the Lions this year may be as difficult as it is for the Patriots.

That is why I see KJ as an RB2 at best, with potential for RB1 weeks and potential for weeks of duds.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:36 am

These threads get tiresome when 1 guy who owns the player has to tell everybody why they are wrong. The Lions have specifically stated they are going to use more than 1 back, and that they don't view KJ as a bell cow. CJA looks to be that 2nd guy as of now, Riddick will still probably be involved on third downs. How many touches each get is pure speculation, and no one is right or wrong. If KJ gets 15 or so touches a game and is productive, anyone who drafted him with a late first rookie pick should consider that a win.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:38 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:10 am
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:45 am
How would you project the DET backfield's stats then if you so vehemently disagree with my projections?
They had 404 attempts last year, 18th in the league. I think it goes up with Bevel, with everything Patricia and Quinn are saying, call it 420. That'd've been 12th most in the league last year. Let's just start with 404 though, assume it stays constant. 25 a game.

I'd give Kerryon 50%-60% of those. Call it 55%. The leader of a committee. 13.8 a game, 220 total.

I'd give him 5 targets a game, what he was getting after he took over last year. One of two RBs to catch all catchable passes last year. 4 receptions a game, 64 total. You can read what Patricia has said about how they want to use him in the passing game.

220 carries + 60 catches assuming health. 280 touches. Nearly identical with Kamara in 2018.
14 att/g + 4rec/g.

Leaves 11 attempts for CJA and Zenner. Leaves a few rec for Riddick. Leaves them in a RBBC.

At his YPC and YPR from last year, that'd be 1230 rush yards + 400 rec yards. Yards per Carry probably decreases from 5.6. Yards per Rec probably comes up from 6.5. I'd safely keep YPR the same and drop YPC to 4.6 and that's still 1400 total yards.

Big difference from 190 attempts and 50 recs. There's no reason it should be that low when he earned more per game as a rookie.
Well, he couldn't make it through a season without gettin hurt, for one. It's arbitrary prediction. Nobody knows how the Lions plan to manage his touches, only that they have stated they will.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:47 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:38 am
Well, he couldn't make it through a season without gettin hurt, for one. It's arbitrary prediction. Nobody knows how the Lions plan to manage his touches, only that they have stated they will.
That's not what arbitrary means.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:50 pm

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:47 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:38 am
Well, he couldn't make it through a season without gettin hurt, for one. It's arbitrary prediction. Nobody knows how the Lions plan to manage his touches, only that they have stated they will.
That's not what arbitrary means.
Actually, it sort of is. The numbers people are pulling out are based on personal choice, a whim if you will. Exactly what arbitrary means. Last years touches don't dictate this years. New schedule, OC, etc. Last years carries don't dictate a trend, it was just last years carries.

Your quotes:

"I'd give Kerryon 50%-60% of those. Call it 55%. The leader of a committee. 13.8 a game, 220 total.

I'd give him 5 targets a game, what he was getting after he took over last year. One of two RBs to catch all catchable passes last year. 4 receptions a game, 64 total. You can read what Patricia has said about how they want to use him in the passing game.

220 carries + 60 catches assuming health. 280 touches. Nearly identical with Kamara in 2018.
14 att/g + 4rec/g."


Where is the system you've come up with for this? Last years numbers with new players don't really have any bearing, at this point. You're giving him these predicted touches, but again, new running backs in the room with him, and IMO CJA is a better back than Blount. Alvin Kamara has nothing to do with Kerryon Johnson. These numbers are predicated on your belief in KJ being the leader of a committee, and certain amount of rushes he team will have in a future season. None of which are predicated on any system that I know of, other than the teams 2018 totals. I could easily say that the Lions will run the ball 380 times this season, and KJ will be the leader of the committee, getting 45 percent of that, CJA 30, and Riddick and anyone else 25 percent, due to the fact he got hurt, and they want to run a committee. Just as arbitrary as your statement. No real truth to it, necessarily. The targets I agree, is not arbitrary, because you have at least given reasoning that he should maintain 5 targets a game to get to your reception prediction (assuming efficiency stays the same). The Lions may want to run more, but if they are consistently losing in the 2nd half of a tough division, they might not be able to, so predicting a teams rushing attempts in March is a little futile.
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:14 pm

Where are we at now with KJ? I though he had a good rookie year, but always thought Jaocbs>KJ. That looks to be right, but KJ this season looks nothing like last year. I actually had a trade offer in the off season where I could move Dalvin or KJ, and had to think about it for a bit, before keeping Dalvin. KJ does not look good at all this year. He's dropping passes, and not getting the passing work that was talked up in the off season, with 60 catches etc. Where is he valued vs a 2020 first? Late 2020 first?
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:14 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:50 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:47 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:38 am
Well, he couldn't make it through a season without gettin hurt, for one. It's arbitrary prediction. Nobody knows how the Lions plan to manage his touches, only that they have stated they will.
That's not what arbitrary means.
Actually, it sort of is. The numbers people are pulling out are based on personal choice, a whim if you will. Exactly what arbitrary means. Last years touches don't dictate this years. New schedule, OC, etc. Last years carries don't dictate a trend, it was just last years carries.
Last year doesn't dictate this year, no. But we can look at history and make educated guesses. Every projection created by every fantasy platform is "based on personal choice, a whim," by your definition. Come on, man.

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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:24 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:14 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:50 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:47 pm


That's not what arbitrary means.
Actually, it sort of is. The numbers people are pulling out are based on personal choice, a whim if you will. Exactly what arbitrary means. Last years touches don't dictate this years. New schedule, OC, etc. Last years carries don't dictate a trend, it was just last years carries.
Last year doesn't dictate this year, no. But we can look at history and make educated guesses. Every projection created by every fantasy platform is "based on personal choice, a whim," by your definition. Come on, man.
I bumped the thread to see where people were at with KJ, as to me he doesn't look the player he did last year, and his role in the receiving game has diminished, instead of increased, like they said it would. Which is sort of what I was getting at. People were extrapolating receptions, and he was supposed to have more this year based on last year, but as I said, new coaches and scheme change things. There was no history with KJ and this staff to go by. He has 9 catches through 6 games. Even I didn't expect it to be this low. I don't care to argue about a statement I made in April. I just bumped the thread to see what people's thoughts were of KJ, because to me he looks worse than last year. He's dropping passes, and isn't running as well either, to my eyes. But I've only seen 1 and a half games, and some preseason action. Anyone watching Lions games?
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Re: Kerryon Johnson Value

Postby BigJoeWall72 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:36 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:24 am
I bumped the thread to see where people were at with KJ, as to me he doesn't look the player he did last year, and his role in the receiving game has diminished, instead of increased, like they said it would.
"They", as far as I can remember, were the beat writers - not the coaching staff. Matt Patricia said his touches would be limited, while OC Darrell Bevell seemed to contradict that at one point, but not necessarily. Plus, the Lions under MP have shown that this team wants to run more than the average team, which is going to decrease RB receiving options.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:24 am
People were extrapolating receptions, and he was supposed to have more this year based on last year, but as I said, new coaches and scheme change things. There was no history with KJ and this staff to go by.
I believe I've seen many people around these boards hammer against extrapolating, so that doesn't seem to have been wise.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:24 am
He has 9 catches through 6 games. Even I didn't expect it to be this low.
Lions have already had their bye week, so they've only played 5 games - not that that makes things a ton better. Also, JD McKissic has gotten some looks in the passing game.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:24 am
I just bumped the thread to see what people's thoughts were of KJ, because to me he looks worse than last year. He's dropping passes, and isn't running as well either, to my eyes. But I've only seen 1 and a half games, and some preseason action. Anyone watching Lions games?
All of what I responded with above being said, I've watched basically 100% of the Lions snaps this year, and KJ is not the problem. He's looked fine when getting opportunities in the passing game, even though he has had two drops on the year (which I don't think is the beginning of a trend by any means). The second and most promising stat is that his total snaps are up the last three games to 77%, 70%, and 71% after the first two weeks being 57% and 55%. The o-line hasn't been creating a lot of room for him, but when it's there he has taken advantage of it. To top it all off he's getting consistent redzone looks.

My guess is that the line will get straightened out a little bit more and that KJ will settle in as a mid-RB2. As the Lions continue to take deep shots (that number is greatly increased from last year so far) and the defenses begin to adjust to that, the opportunities will increase for KJ on the ground and in the short passing game.

Basically he's having just about the same year he had last year, as of now, but I think the arrow is still looking up. He's a great #2 RB on my team because he's got a floor that rarely dips below 10 points, and he can put up the occasional 17-20 point game. If he's your #1 back, that's probably not ideal right now. As for trade value... meh, every league seems to be drastically different on most players, so I won't even comment on that.
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Stafford, Trubisky
CMC, Kerryon, Dam.Williams, Ito, D.Thompson, Ogunbowale
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