Kyle Rudolph Value

[Steelersxx6]

Thinking of trading Rudolph, what is he worth?

[ArrylT]

Rudolph is one of those guys who is usually worth less to buyers than sellers. His age & consistent production at the TE position make him worth a late 1st / early 2nd easily - but you'll rarely be able to get that in picks straight up, especially this year with Diggs & Thielen eating up most of the targets this year (55%) in Minnesota. Rudolph is only seeing about a 12% target share and he's still a borderline TE1 ...

[Pac_Eddy]

We know what he is: scores TDs, few catches and yards. I wouldn't give more than a third. That kind of production is replaceable.

[Rosenbluu]

Nobody is selling Rudolph for a 3rd unless you are playing in a league you don’t have to start a TE

[Friction]

Maybe a mid second, but I definitely would not pay a late first. Dont see too many people selling for a third.

[moishetreats]

Rudolph is one of those guys who is usually worth less to buyers than sellers. His age & consistent production at the TE position make him worth a late 1st / early 2nd easily - but you'll rarely be able to get that in picks straight up, especially this year with Diggs & Thielen eating up most of the targets this year (55%) in Minnesota. Rudolph is only seeing about a 12% target share and he's still a borderline TE1 ...

Based on what? In a typical PPR league, he is TE13 by total points. But, by average points per game -- much more telling -- he falls all the way to #20. Yes, he might get back to his better seasons of 2016 and 2017, but it's also just as likely that those were outlier seasons. I don't see Rudolph as anywhere near a TE1 or worth a last 1st / early 2nd.

[Jfever]

Do people realize that approx 50% and 65% -70% of 2nd and 3rd round rookies NEVER pan out for fantasy use? Real question....... Who in their right frickin mind trades Rudolph away straight up for a future 3rd? Give me a break. He, in this current TE landscape, despite his target share, is still worth a future early 2nd. In my experience people over value picks while simultaneously misunderstanding pick hit / miss ratio because they often times are overconfident in ability to draft a hidden gem. Rudolph = a 3rd is good comedy.

[moishetreats]

Do people realize that approx 50% and 65% -70% of 2nd and 3rd round rookies NEVER pan out for fantasy use? Real question....... Who in their right frickin mind trades Rudolph away straight up for a future 3rd? Give me a break. He, in this current TE landscape, despite his target share, is still worth a future early 2nd. In my experience people over value picks while simultaneously misunderstanding pick hit / miss ratio because they often times are overconfident in ability to draft a hidden gem. Rudolph = a 3rd is good comedy.

True... I look at it far differently, though.

You're not comparing the player that you get with the pick to Rudolph. Rather, you're comparing the value of that pick to the value of Rudolph -- especially considering Rudolph's subpar production this season. I think that there is a good chance that an early second-round pick is more valuable than Rudolph come draft time.

In addition, Rudolph is not really playing at a level much higher than any second-tier TE. There is minimal -- if any -- value in his current production relative to many other TEs that are often available. And the likelihood that he ever returns to difference-making status is extremely low. There is the other value in the pick: likely not to pan out, but the likelihood that that player becomes a useful player and/or difference-maker is faaaaar higher than the likelihood of Rudolph ever being one of those.

[Goddard]

No one is selling Rudolph for a 3rd and no one is buying him for a 1st. His value should be a 2nd and wouldn't blame either buyer or seller for not selling or buying at that price.

[Pac_Eddy]

Nobody is selling Rudolph for a 3rd unless you are playing in a league you don’t have to start a TE

I understand that. I don't see anyone buying for a second either, so if you're intent on selling, prepare to be offered a third.

[Servo]

Feels like trading a 2nd for Rudolph can be described as settling for a middle-road TE because the landscape is so bad.

If you play PPR, fine, maybe he holds a little more value but there have been plenty of fantastic 2nd Round picks over the last two seasons, that to me, are worth far more than Rudolph's current production.

[Goddard]

Feels like trading a 2nd for Rudolph can be described as settling for a middle-road TE because the landscape is so bad.

If you play PPR, fine, maybe he holds a little more value but there have been plenty of fantastic 2nd Round picks over the last two seasons, that to me, are worth far more than Rudolph's current production.

There are just as many busts in the 2nd round (if not more), so it's hard to know which one you're getting. Like I said earlier, wouldn't blame anyone either way for paying or passing on a 2nd. I'm not even that high on him and think he's been pretty disappointing, but unless you have Kelce, Ertz, or Kittle, you're not getting consistent production out of your TE this year. I'd rather try going after someone like Hooper or Burton first with a 2nd, and if I fail, then might turn my attention towards Rudolph.

[ArrylT]

True... I look at it far differently, though.

You're not comparing the player that you get with the pick to Rudolph. Rather, you're comparing the value of that pick to the value of Rudolph -- especially considering Rudolph's subpar production this season. I think that there is a good chance that an early second-round pick is more valuable than Rudolph come draft time.

In addition, Rudolph is not really playing at a level much higher than any second-tier TE. There is minimal -- if any -- value in his current production relative to many other TEs that are often available. And the likelihood that he ever returns to difference-making status is extremely low. There is the other value in the pick: likely not to pan out, but the likelihood that that player becomes a useful player and/or difference-maker is faaaaar higher than the likelihood of Rudolph ever being one of those.

I think your perspective is too narrow. Jared Cook is a difference maker at TE this year. TE has always been a very volatile & matchup/scheme dependant position apart from a very few guys who all have the same things in common

Elite or high volume QB and/or No WR1 target hog

Go look at the top 5 scoring TEs this year and you'll see what I mean.

Even on weeks Rudolph is putting up 8 or 9 point weeks he is still producing value-

Week 1 - 12th - and once you take out Dissly 11th (since almost no one was starting Dissly week I)
Week 2 - 8th
Week 3 - 4th
Week 4 - 13th - and once you remove Swaim & Fells he is 11th (again in how many 12 team ppr leagues were those guys started)
Week 5 - 13th - Ahead of him Swoope, J. Hill, Paul & Griffin
Week 8 - 18th - ahead of him J. Thomas, Alie-Cox, Dickson, Devalve

Basically even on weeks he is not a great TE he is still value because the guys ahead of him are either guys no one started or had 1 week performances before fading again.

The point being is that you can try to dumpster dive on a weekly basis and hope you find a TE who will produce - or you can plug in a guy with a safe floor & hope that the TE gets a TD to push up his score since very few TEs on a weekly basis get 6-100 type games. Obviously a TE1s floor is lower than a WR2 or RB2 floor but it is still a safe floor for the position.

Furthermore situations change and despite a not so great situation - Rudolph is still 11th in TE Targets along with being a borderline TE1 in production. Maybe Rudolph changes teams and gets a better situation, or one of Diggs / Thielen leave and Rudolphs age (29) as a TE is the new norm as we are seeing on a weekly basis TEs in their early & mid 30s putting up TE1 production.

We already know the top TE rookies are usually drafted in the 2nd round of rookie drafts - except for a few exceptions - so basically there is a good chance you're paying equal to more to draft a guy who may end up like Rudolph if you have a need at TE and choose to spend draft capital on that position. There is a reason people were selling Burtons for 1sts & RSJs for 2nds this off-season - because of the nature of the TE landscape. It just does not make good sense to sell Rudolph for a 3rd regardless of perception when in an 'off year' he is still a TE1 in targets & points (even if not ppg).

Obviously selling is different than buying and I get buyers not wanting to buy Rudolph but smart owners take advantage and zag when others zig. IE buying Rudolphs & Woods for production in the upcoming season while owners are chasing the rookie hype.

And of course Goddard said it best lol.

[Servo]

I'd agree with you with regards to, if you're going to trade for a TE, you might as well try for the big boys...rather than settling for a "TE1" whose production is an entire SEASON less than guys like Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Howard, etc and even "inconsistent" guys like Burton.

[Goddard]

I'd agree with you with regards to, if you're going to trade for a TE, you might as well try for the big boys...rather than settling for a "TE1" whose production is an entire SEASON less than guys like Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Howard, etc and even "inconsistent" guys like Burton.

Completely agree. I just meant if I'm trading a 2nd, I'd go after those guys first before offering it up to the Rudolph owner. I personally prefer paying for studs then settling for middling talent, so I'm with you on that.