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No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm
by dlf_jules
Today's events remind me that Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham battled for the dynasty 1.01 slot before the 2015 season. The main argument against Beckham was his risk compared to the "proven" Dez.

Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.

To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:14 pm
by Trevormortis
I traded my 2.04 during last years draft for DT because, you know, DT, at 2.04, why not... That 2.04 was Kamara...

We all know how that turned out.

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:20 pm
by Valhalla
Jules, you live!

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:30 pm
by ericanadian
dlf_jules wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm
Today's events remind me that Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham battled for the dynasty 1.01 slot before the 2015 season. The main argument against Beckham was his risk compared to the "proven" Dez.

Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.

To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.
They were also battling Julio Jones & Antonio Brown. Seems like you’re cherry picking with Dez.

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:37 pm
by GridironGuerilla
ericanadian wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:30 pm
dlf_jules wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm
Today's events remind me that Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham battled for the dynasty 1.01 slot before the 2015 season. The main argument against Beckham was his risk compared to the "proven" Dez.

Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.

To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.
They were also battling Julio Jones & Antonio Brown. Seems like you’re cherry picking with Dez.
I really don't think this diminishes the point.

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:39 pm
by dlf_jules
ericanadian wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:30 pm
They were also battling Julio Jones & Antonio Brown. Seems like you’re cherry picking with Dez.
Oh, sure. And the actual hit rate is way better than the 67% that we get from the Dez-Julio-AB cohort. My point isn't "youth > veteran." It's "Stop discounting the risk of veterans when comparing them to youngsters."

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:07 pm
by jordanzs
I had a 2015 startup draft. Dez went 1.1, ODB went 1.2.

I took Gronk at 1.7, right after Antonio Brown & right before Leveon Bell.

I was happy to get Hopkins at 2.6.....half a round after Calvin Johnson went off the board :)

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:17 pm
by ninotoreS
dlf_jules wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm
when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison
Worth putting in a signature.
jordanzs wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:07 pm
I was happy to get Hopkins at 2.6.....half a round after Calvin Johnson went off the board :)
Strangely high for Megatron in 2015, at age 30 and following the worst season of his career since 2009. :|

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:23 pm
by jordanzs
ninotoreS wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:17 pm
dlf_jules wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm
when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison
Worth putting in a signature.
jordanzs wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:07 pm
I was happy to get Hopkins at 2.6.....half a round after Calvin Johnson went off the board :)
Strangely high for Megatron in 2015, at age 30 and following the worst season of his career since 2009. :|
I wasn't complaining :D :D :D

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:06 pm
by ArrylT
I think the better point is that there is risk period. For every Antonio Brown there is a Jeremy Maclin and for every Michael Thomas there is a Devante Parker.

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:32 pm
by Nanananananana
60% of the time, it works every time!

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:34 pm
by ninotoreS
ArrylT wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:06 pm
For every Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas there are a dozen Jeremy Maclins and Devante Parkers.
ftfy :P

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:10 pm
by Dookmarriot
Nanananananana wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:32 pm
60% of the time, it works every time!
They've done studies.

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:33 pm
by ArrylT
ninotoreS wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:34 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:06 pm
For every Antonio Brown and Michael Johnson there are a dozen Jeremy Maclins and Devante Parkers.
ftfy :P
Thank you. :lol:

Re: No such thing as a sure thing

Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:44 am
by spotxc
Risk everywhere but I agree with poster. Can’t assume these established guys are sure things