Will Fuller Discussion

[kris_kapsner]

Fuller was really starting to develop into an all around solid WR with back end WR1 upside and had solidified himself as a quality young WR2 for fantasy. Now he's out. Bummer!!!

I've had two other owners already inquire to see if I'd sell Fuller on the cheap after the injury. My answer is no.

Anyone have any idea how long it'll take to be able to slide him into IR for myfantasy?

He tore his ACL Thursday night and he's still locked in my league so I can't move him to IR. I'd like to pick up someone else before Sunday's noon kickoff. Otherwise I have to wait until Wednesday and the player I'd like to sign may get picked up off Waivers at that time due to me having a low Waiver priority.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Fuller was really starting to develop into an all around solid WR with back end WR1 upside and had solidified himself as a quality young WR2 for fantasy. Now he's out. Bummer!!!

I've had two other owners already inquire to see if I'd sell Fuller on the cheap after the injury. My answer is no.

Anyone have any idea how long it'll take to be able to slide him into IR for myfantasy?

He tore his ACL Thursday night and he's still locked in my league so I can't move him to IR. I'd like to pick up someone else before Sunday's noon kickoff. Otherwise I have to wait until Wednesday and the player I'd like to sign may get picked up off Waivers at that time due to me having a low Waiver priority.

I don't play on MyFantasy, but I can tell you, on ESPN, once a player's game day and start time hits, he remains locked until Tuesday; doesn't matter which day he played or which day he was hurt; and waiver claims process during the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

My guess would be that would be the standard normal; and I agree with it. Otherwise, one could be moving around and changing lineups involving already played Thursday players. To do otherwise also wouldn't be fair to someone who has a player go down on their week 8 Sunday or Monday game.

[kris_kapsner]

Still not designated as IR in myfantasy. What is the hold up? He's scheduled for surgery this week and yet they still only have him designated as "Out".

Has he been designated on IR in other platforms?

[Gtdano_14]

MFL still says "Out." Texans must not have put him on IR yet.

[ArrylT]

He is on IR today.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Still not designated as IR in myfantasy. What is the hold up? He's scheduled for surgery this week and yet they still only have him designated as "Out".

Has he been designated on IR in other platforms?

The Texans waited until Tuesday afternoon to place Fuller on IR. It was the Texans, and not a fantasy platform issue.

[Bot101]

You’d think some rebuilding teams would want this guy in my league but nobody will touch him.

[hoos89]

You’d think some rebuilding teams would want this guy in my league but nobody will touch him.

Depends what you want to sell him for. They're not going to want to pay pre-ACL value. He's also got the injury prone label now so that's going to scare some people away.

[zoster80]

What is his value? A 2nd too low?

[Bot101]

You’d think some rebuilding teams would want this guy in my league but nobody will touch him.

Depends what you want to sell him for. They're not going to want to pay pre-ACL value. He's also got the injury prone label now so that's going to scare some people away.

I tried trading him for Phillip Lindsay to a team thats 3-5.

[jeffster]

You’d think some rebuilding teams would want this guy in my league but nobody will touch him.

Depends what you want to sell him for. They're not going to want to pay pre-ACL value. He's also got the injury prone label now so that's going to scare some people away.

That's my problem. I have a league where I've thrown in the towel this year, but I'm still hesitant to make an offer for Fuller. Keenan Allen played 15, 14 and 8 games his first three seasons, and was labeled injury prone before playing only 1 in his fourth year. Fuller now has played 14, 10 and 7 through three years, which is notably worse than Keenan, and with lower production to boot.

If I'm buying Fuller at this point, there had better be a pretty solid discount.

[Johnny Canuck]

The thing about Fuller is, why would any owner sell at a discount? What is the incentive?

If you play in really really shallow leagues and need the bench space then that's one thing, but other than that I don't really see a reason.

If you just don't like injury prone guys then I suppose that is fine, but with Fuller the best thing to do is hold, and/or buy him, there is no chance I'd sell - esp if ppl want a discount.


Let's look at why:

2018
Fuller has proven to have very good rapport with Watson, both are young, and when both are on the field they're productive. Between weeks 2-8 (all the weeks Fuller was healthy), he was the WR13 in half pt.

He was ahead of: Micheal Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Julio, Juju, Landry, Jones, Golladay, Keenan Allen, Arob, etc.

Those names are significant.

2017
In 2017, in games that both Watson and Fuller were healthy, Fuller was the WR2.

He was ahead of: Antonio, Evans, AJG, Adams, and every other WR in the league with the lone exception of Dhop.

That is significant.


So while Fuller may be injury prone, which results in him sitting on your bench (or IR) for half of most seasons, when he plays he's a stud. Not too mention is fairly easy start/sit calculation with Fuller.

A) is Fuller healthy?
B) is Watson healthy?

If A and B both equal yes, then you start him.

So if you're moving him just because you don't want him on your bench injured, that's foolish. It's far far easier to predict when Fuller might blow up, than other bench stashes that occupy the same space. Try predicting when the likes of Amari Cooper, Callaway, Amendola, Robby Anderson, etc will have a big game....not fun.

This part is hyperbolic but go with me for a sec...If I told you there's a WR rookie in next yrs draft class, that will put up between WR2 and WR13 numbers, and you'll know to a highish probability of when to start them on a given week, BUT they might only play half the season....I take that guy early in the first of most rookie drafts 100%.

Taking anything less than a early-mid first rounder is ridiculous, esp for next yrs lackluster class. Think about all the poor WRs we've drafted in the 1st round of rookie drafts lately (Mike Williams, Kevin White, Corey Coleman, Treadwell, the list goes on), and ppl want Fuller for a 2nd....in a bad draft class.....

Fuller has been one of the best WRs drafted in the last 4 yrs. With that kind of injury discount, ppl prob expect to get Dalvin Cook for a 2nd as well...

Half the battle of FF is knowing when to start guys so they help you win and don't bust your week, and with Fuller it's not exactly the Da Vinci code. Even with the ACL injury considered, he's a strong hold or buy, and if you're going to sell don't get con'd into selling for a 2nd.

Half a season of premium production is far better than a full season of mediocrity.

[hoos89]

Come one...a player who is a high risk to be unavailable for large swaths of the season has to be considered less valuable than if he wasn't. Especially considering that there's a higher risk that he misses the playoffs. An owner might sell now for a discount because (a) they're spooked by the injuries, (b) they need production today for a title push and (c) future production is worth less than present production. Even if you assume Fuller never gets hurt again, he's still worth less today than he was prior to the injury (and than he will be after the season) for the simple reason that he's not producing right now. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

Also...Watson and Fuller literally overlapped 4 games last season so I think you're deriving a bit too much from that. And if I'm going to need to wait for two injury prone players to both be healthy at the same time to get stud production from Fuller then I'm going to rationally expect a significant discount.

[Johnny Canuck]

Come one...a player who is a high risk to be unavailable for large swaths of the season has to be considered less valuable than if he wasn't. Especially considering that there's a higher risk that he misses the playoffs. An owner might sell now for a discount because (a) they're spooked by the injuries, (b) they need production today for a title push and (c) future production is worth less than present production. Even if you assume Fuller never gets hurt again, he's still worth less today than he was prior to the injury (and than he will be after the season) for the simple reason that he's not producing right now. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

Also...Watson and Fuller literally overlapped 4 games last season so I think you're deriving a bit too much from that. And if I'm going to need to wait for two injury prone players to both be healthy at the same time to get stud production from Fuller then I'm going to rationally expect a significant discount.

I didn't say the buyer shouldn't want one, I'm saying why would the seller give one.

I agree that some ppl would sell regarding your ABC examples, but I just don't think that is smart is all. To sell Fuller for a 2nd (which has a low chance of hitting) like some have suggested is silly. I suppose it would take a few examples of what is considered a fair offer for Fuller at this time to define "significant." Otherwise we'd just be talking in circles.

- I wouldn't take a late 2019 1st, but that's a fair offer.
- Fuller for any top 15ish WR that is over age 28 is fair for a competing team (Sanders or something like that value)
- Washington + 2nd
- Cooper for Fuller (maybe add a 2nd or 3rd to Fuller)

I can't think of any more atm. But that's my wheelhouse personally. I'm also very high on Fuller so take it with a grain of salt. When he's healthy, he's a stud, and I don't sell low on studs injury history or not. Imagine how much it would of sucked to sell Keenan Allen for a 2nd early in his career.

[hoos89]

For the same reasons that the buyer would want one: because the seller is not getting production now and because they're concerned about Fuller's injury risk. There's a big gap between "selling for a discount" and "selling for a 2nd". I'm not arguing that you should sell for a 2nd. I'm arguing that if he was worth an early first 2 weeks ago, he's worth more like a mid-first today.

Also...for every player who ended up putting together some good seasons in spite of the "injury risk" label, there's a bunch of players who never did (and most of them we probably don't remember that well as a result). Imagine if you'd held onto Percy Harvin instead of selling at a discount. The risk cuts both ways.