Chad Kelly

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jenkins.math
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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby jenkins.math » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:08 am

Krypto_King wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am
jenkins.math wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:32 am

It's fun to get excited about a prospect or shiny new possibility, but 7th rounders rarely if ever make an impact. Let alone at QB. Denver just tried that experiment with Trevor Siemian and thought they were better to give Case Keenum 15 million a year. Chances of Kelly ever being long term relevant in real life or fantasy is slim to none.
That's fair but how many 7th rounders are on a roster mid-way thru their 2nd season? I would guess the percentage of those that hit is much better.
Well sure, but even that percentage is tiny. Especially for the QB position.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Darnold
RB: Barkley, Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, Ito Smith, Jaylen Samuels, Alex Collins
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Cooks, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, James Washington
TE: Jordan Reed, Njoku
K: Lutz
D/ST: Browns, Dolphins
DL: Cameron Jordan
LB: Kiko Alonso
DB: Derwin James

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:11 am

TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:26 am
The Mahomes vs. Kelly Era will begin sooner rather than later
How many 1sts should I add to Mahomes to get Kelly?
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby jenkins.math » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:12 am

TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:44 am
Anyone who says his presence in the NFL is invalid, is a tool. Come to think of it, anyone who speaks with that type of pretentious robotic jargon is a tool anyway.
I have yet to see anyone mention his presence in the NFL as being invalid. Perhaps you meant to reply to a different thread?

But anybody that comes on here patting themselves on the back about a prediction they made (that hasn't come true yet) comes off pretty toolish in my book.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Darnold
RB: Barkley, Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, Ito Smith, Jaylen Samuels, Alex Collins
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Cooks, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, James Washington
TE: Jordan Reed, Njoku
K: Lutz
D/ST: Browns, Dolphins
DL: Cameron Jordan
LB: Kiko Alonso
DB: Derwin James

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby TheRookiePro » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:14 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:12 am
TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:44 am
Anyone who says his presence in the NFL is invalid, is a tool. Come to think of it, anyone who speaks with that type of pretentious robotic jargon is a tool anyway.
I have yet to see anyone mention his presence in the NFL as being invalid. Perhaps you meant to reply to a different thread?

But anybody that comes on here patting themselves on the back about a prediction they made (that hasn't come true yet) comes off pretty toolish in my book.
Wait Chad Kelly hasn't usurped Paxton Lynch? It was all a dream? That's right, shut up.
10 Team PPR, 25 man roster(1st and 2nd year player PS option for $20), QB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX (RB,WR,TE), K, DEF.

QB-Luck, A. Smith, Fitzpatrick
RB-Gurley, M. Gordon, Jeff Wilson, Tevin Coleman,T. Montgomery, John Kelly, Justin Davis
WR-K. Allen, T. Hill, Josh Gordon, Golladay, Fitzgerald, S. Watkins, J. Reynolds, Enunwa,
TE-Burton, Ebron, Walker
K-Gostkowski
Defense-Vikings, Jaguars, Ravens

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby jenkins.math » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:17 am

TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:14 am
jenkins.math wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:12 am
TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:44 am
Anyone who says his presence in the NFL is invalid, is a tool. Come to think of it, anyone who speaks with that type of pretentious robotic jargon is a tool anyway.
I have yet to see anyone mention his presence in the NFL as being invalid. Perhaps you meant to reply to a different thread?

But anybody that comes on here patting themselves on the back about a prediction they made (that hasn't come true yet) comes off pretty toolish in my book.
Wait Chad Kelly hasn't usurped Paxton Lynch? It was all a dream? That's right, shut up.
You're halfway there. He hasn't started a game yet. Again, even if he does, patting yourself on the back is a sad look.

If you're bragging about being right that Paxton Lynch blows, well I can give you a cookie if you want. But you need to ask your mom first as I don't want to ruin your dinner kid.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Darnold
RB: Barkley, Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, Ito Smith, Jaylen Samuels, Alex Collins
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Cooks, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, James Washington
TE: Jordan Reed, Njoku
K: Lutz
D/ST: Browns, Dolphins
DL: Cameron Jordan
LB: Kiko Alonso
DB: Derwin James

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:18 am

That's like applauding Conner for starting over Bell.

Paxton is trash and we all already knew that. Chill, you act like hes on Mahomes level when he hasn't even started a game. I cant wait for him to flop now
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby TheRookiePro » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:19 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:18 am
That's like applauding Conner for starting over Bell.

Paxton is trash and we all already knew that. Chill, you act like hes on Mahomes level when he hasn't even started a game. I cant wait for him to flop now
HATER alert!
10 Team PPR, 25 man roster(1st and 2nd year player PS option for $20), QB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX (RB,WR,TE), K, DEF.

QB-Luck, A. Smith, Fitzpatrick
RB-Gurley, M. Gordon, Jeff Wilson, Tevin Coleman,T. Montgomery, John Kelly, Justin Davis
WR-K. Allen, T. Hill, Josh Gordon, Golladay, Fitzgerald, S. Watkins, J. Reynolds, Enunwa,
TE-Burton, Ebron, Walker
K-Gostkowski
Defense-Vikings, Jaguars, Ravens

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby ArrylT » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:22 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:07 am
The conversation has now shifted from "is he fantasy relevant" to "does he deserve to be on an NFL roster" which are two entirely different discussions. I've never said he doesn't deserve to be in the NFL or things of that nature. But I don't think he has long term NFL starting potential, and if he doesn't have that, then he doesn't have long term fantasy relevance. Which this is what this board is all about right? Fantasy football or am I in the wrong place?
I think there is a difference between having NFL starting potential, and actually getting opportunity. In the case of Kelly I firmly believe he has both the potential and a shot at opportunity. I do not think it is a given or 100% - I just think it is a lot closer to 50/50 than 0%.

Depending on your league & roster size - just being on a roster could make you fantasy relevant (in that league). After all like you agreed - he has relevance on a SF/2QB roster ... I have no issue with your belief that Kelly has no place on a typical 12 team 1 QB league. I do not disagree. On those last roster spots an owner has to believe in the players talent, and see a path to relevance. If you do not see one or the other - then go on to someone else. I see both for Kelly and am quite comfortable stashing him in larger 12 team 1 QB leagues - in part because I am active enough to churn other spots on other players so Kelly is not really clogging my roster.

However while 1 QB leagues remain the norm - we are seeing a shift away from that into a variety of different formats - be it devy leagues, best ball leagues, superflex & 2 & 3QB leagues. Sort of like the shift from non-ppr and TD Heavy to PPR. 12 team 1 QB 24 man rosters with TD & PK eating up 2 roster spots are less and less.

Finally - I think it was Valhalla - but if it was someone else I apologize and hope they will step up and let me know - who said it is the lesser known guys who make for better discussions. Anyone can argue Brady vs. Manning (Peyton) or Brees vs. Roethlisberger, but it is the willingness to discuss if not take chances on these names in the rough and see if you have a diamond or just cubic zirconia.

I am sure the guys who believed first in Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton amongst others would agree. Yes there are more misses than hits - but if you do not take a shot you do not get a result.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am

TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:19 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:18 am
That's like applauding Conner for starting over Bell.

Paxton is trash and we all already knew that. Chill, you act like hes on Mahomes level when he hasn't even started a game. I cant wait for him to flop now
HATER alert!
Where do you rank Kelly amongst QB that aren't named Keenum and Paxton?
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby jenkins.math » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:37 am

ArrylT wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:22 am

Finally - I think it was Valhalla - but if it was someone else I apologize and hope they will step up and let me know - who said it is the lesser known guys who make for better discussions. Anyone can argue Brady vs. Manning (Peyton) or Brees vs. Roethlisberger, but it is the willingness to discuss if not take chances on these names in the rough and see if you have a diamond or just cubic zirconia.

I am sure the guys who believed first in Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton amongst others would agree. Yes there are more misses than hits - but if you do not take a shot you do not get a result.
I fully agree with having the conversations about the lesser known guys. I also understand about believing in guys and how cool it is to have them hit.

But from a roster construction standpoint, taking guys like Antonio Brown and TY Hilton (who were 3rd rounders, and any offensive player in the 3rd round gets drafted in dynasty) and stashing them is comparing apples to oranges from my view. Adam Thielen is a better comparison because he was undrafted. We have seen undrafted guys win leagues before like Arian Foster. You found that diamond in the rough, rostered him while investing very little, and he turned out to have some studly years. But you also leave more roster spots for RB and WR than you do QB (typically).

If you look at total points scored for QBs right now, of the top 33 only 11 were drafted outside of round 1. Now of those 11, only 4 were drafted in the 4th round and beyond. Playing fantasy football is a numbers game, and the numbers point to Chad Kelly (or any late QB) not being fantasy relevant at all. I'd much rather take my roster spot elsewhere, especially in 1 QB.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Darnold
RB: Barkley, Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, Ito Smith, Jaylen Samuels, Alex Collins
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Cooks, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, James Washington
TE: Jordan Reed, Njoku
K: Lutz
D/ST: Browns, Dolphins
DL: Cameron Jordan
LB: Kiko Alonso
DB: Derwin James

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby ArrylT » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:39 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am
Where do you rank Kelly amongst QB that aren't named Keenum and Paxton?
I know that was not directed at myself but I am going to answer.

If I own a rebuilding / orphan I rather have Kelly as my QB2 on my roster than the following starting QBs on a typical 1QB league where you stash 280+ players (12 x 24)

Eli Manning
Case Keenum
CJ Beathard (not Jimmy G but he is on IR)
Ryan Tannehill maybe

and I would find a way to move a

Joe Flacco
Tom Brady

So QB 28-30 range along with Lamar Jackson but behind the rest of the 2018 class.

That list got shorter as a lot of QBs have been replaced by their rookies

ie Nathan Peterman / AJ McCarron / Tyrod Taylor / Josh McCown / Ryan Fitzpatrick were all starting QBs at some point earlier this year.

unless you know you can flip an Eli - but that takes sometimes more creative trade efforts than it is worth. I have 1 Eli share left on a 5-1 contender team and I actually have Kelly as a QB 3 because I would rather go into the off-season with Newton/Kelly than Newton/Eli. Rosen is on my taxi squad there - so I could swap their spots (taxi squad rules in this league allow any player to be stashed).

---

Makes my roster on any SF / 2 QB leagues.
Last edited by ArrylT on Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby ArrylT » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:52 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:37 am
But from a roster construction standpoint, taking guys like Antonio Brown and TY Hilton (who were 3rd rounders, and any offensive player in the 3rd round gets drafted in dynasty) and stashing them is comparing apples to oranges from my view. Adam Thielen is a better comparison because he was undrafted. We have seen undrafted guys win leagues before like Arian Foster. You found that diamond in the rough, rostered him while investing very little, and he turned out to have some studly years. But you also leave more roster spots for RB and WR than you do QB (typically).

If you look at total points scored for QBs right now, of the top 33 only 11 were drafted outside of round 1. Now of those 11, only 4 were drafted in the 4th round and beyond. Playing fantasy football is a numbers game, and the numbers point to Chad Kelly (or any late QB) not being fantasy relevant at all. I'd much rather take my roster spot elsewhere, especially in 1 QB.
I believe Antonio Brown was a 6th round pick not 3rd. I mentioned TY Hilton because I recall on this forum he got a lot of hate early on - and even 3 years ago plenty of people wanted Moncrief to take his spot. So it was from a debate perspective not a draft pedigree pov.

I have absolutely no issue with your stance. I think it is very important that each owner decide which potential diamond in the rough player(s) that they are willing to invest in. Chad Kelly is the only late round QB that I am at all really invested in. You will not see me banging the table for Tayson Hill, or Luke Falk or so forth. I believe there were obvious causes for his drop in the draft and between that, the name pedigree (I am sure some Eli Manning haters will say he only got drafted so highly in part of name pedigree :mrgreen: ), the talent that I feel I have seen and his situation make it a higher than normal bet. If Kelly had been drafted by say Detroit, Indianapolis or even Cincinnati in the 5th, 6th or 7th it would be a completely different story.

So I completely agree that the odds, for most late round QBs, are pretty slim. I am not even going to insist Kellys odds are a lock - just that they are higher than the average late round pick, and that they are high enough for me to be comfortable stashing him.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:06 am

I can agree with all of that. Nothing there is outlandish at all. That's where I'd likely put him as well. Just sounds like we are ready to put him over the Carrs and Mariotas
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby TheRookiePro » Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:04 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am
TheRookiePro wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:19 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:18 am
That's like applauding Conner for starting over Bell.

Paxton is trash and we all already knew that. Chill, you act like hes on Mahomes level when he hasn't even started a game. I cant wait for him to flop now
HATER alert!
Where do you rank Kelly amongst QB that aren't named Keenum and Paxton?
I don't. He hasn't thrown one attempt. He has 1st round pedigree but until I see him in a regular season game I'm not ranking anything.

I made a credible observation months ago after picking him up as a draft stash. I believe the kid will start sooner rather than later. Having a 24 year-old QB with high potential starting a game when I picked them up for free is a huge win in my book.

We'll see what he does with the opportunity if/when it occurs
10 Team PPR, 25 man roster(1st and 2nd year player PS option for $20), QB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX (RB,WR,TE), K, DEF.

QB-Luck, A. Smith, Fitzpatrick
RB-Gurley, M. Gordon, Jeff Wilson, Tevin Coleman,T. Montgomery, John Kelly, Justin Davis
WR-K. Allen, T. Hill, Josh Gordon, Golladay, Fitzgerald, S. Watkins, J. Reynolds, Enunwa,
TE-Burton, Ebron, Walker
K-Gostkowski
Defense-Vikings, Jaguars, Ravens

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Re: Chad Kelly

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:22 pm

Glad to see you calmed down a bit
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3


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