Thoughts On Mariota??

[mild]

I can't remember which podcast did a fake "tease" throw to commercial... but one of them was along the lines of:
"What *if* I told you... that Marcus Mariota will be the future Quarterback of the New England Patriots."

The funny thing is, he said it, and then I could instantly see it. That'd be soooo Belichick. He can scramble and extend plays - and I feel like he is a system QB still waiting to be put in the right system. Something like what Nagy is doing for the Bears/Tribby - give him 1 easy read, an escape path, and manufacture offense for your QB via scheme.

I'm still holding my share that I bought for rock-bottom prices in my SF league last preseason (Eli Manning + 2.02). To me, he's a decent hold this next season if you can buy super cheap, because it's a make-or-break season for him which will motivate him - and if he breaks, then there's a good chance he'll get one more shot with a new system and team context. If it happens to be a reclamation project somewhere with an elite coaching staff, then so much the better. He's 25, he's intelligent, he's mobile, and he has shown flashes of upside over his maddening career so far. I'm still ready to wait and see if he can improve - just make sure the price is right.

[BigBawseRoss]

popular opinion: Mariota will continue to underperform and lose the Titan's starting QB job by year end.
contrarian opinion: oh wait, never mind. I agree with popular opinion!

This stance based on anything but injury riddled recency bias?

are you sticking up for a qb that had 11 TDs and 5 games with 2 TD passes? (meaning he threw 0TD in quite a few games) and in the previous season he had only 3 games with multiple TD passes.

he isnt a good QB

[Sriracha]

popular opinion: Mariota will continue to underperform and lose the Titan's starting QB job by year end.
contrarian opinion: oh wait, never mind. I agree with popular opinion!

This stance based on anything but injury riddled recency bias?

are you sticking up for a qb that had 11 TDs and 5 games with 2 TD passes? (meaning he threw 0TD in quite a few games) and in the previous season he had only 3 games with multiple TD passes.

he isnt a good QB

Ok, so it is just based on injury riddled recency bias

I don't think the book is closed on a 25 year old QB with his profile, not succeeding while injured and in the worst possible situation a QB could be put in. He finds himself in a much better situation this year, so we'll see what happens.

[killer_of_giants]

This stance based on anything but injury riddled recency bias?

are you sticking up for a qb that had 11 TDs and 5 games with 2 TD passes? (meaning he threw 0TD in quite a few games) and in the previous season he had only 3 games with multiple TD passes.

he isnt a good QB

Ok, so it is just based on injury riddled recency bias

as opposed to the distant memories of a bright start of his career?
he's an athlete before than a QB.
he could turn it around, but i still think he's about a 0.7 on the dalton scale.

[Sriracha]

are you sticking up for a qb that had 11 TDs and 5 games with 2 TD passes? (meaning he threw 0TD in quite a few games) and in the previous season he had only 3 games with multiple TD passes.

he isnt a good QB

Ok, so it is just based on injury riddled recency bias

as opposed to the distant memories of a bright start of his career?
he's an athlete before than a QB.
he could turn it around, but i still think he's about a 0.7 on the dalton scale.

Based on his college profile + his rookie and sophomore years. That's 5 years of what I expect out of at least an above average NFL QB. Last two seasons have been rough, but there were a lot of things working against him.

I have a ton of data to counter the narrative that Mariota is a bad QB... but that's not going to change anyone's mind. Let's just agree to disagree.

[killer_of_giants]

I have a ton of data to counter the narrative that Mariota is a bad QB... but that's not going to change anyone's mind. Let's just agree to disagree.

why? i'm all ears!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Man idk, I was really big on Mariota (took him 2nd or 3rd round of a SF startup a few years back) but he just flat out hasn't looked good for 2 seasons, even when he was supposedly healthy (pre-season and regular season). You can bring up any stat you want he just hasn't looked good for 2 years.

[Sriracha]

I have a ton of data to counter the narrative that Mariota is a bad QB... but that's not going to change anyone's mind. Let's just agree to disagree.

why? i'm all ears!

I PM'd you in case you were actually curious and not just being facetious .

[jenkins.math]

Ok, so it is just based on injury riddled recency bias

as opposed to the distant memories of a bright start of his career?
he's an athlete before than a QB.
he could turn it around, but i still think he's about a 0.7 on the dalton scale.

Based on his college profile + his rookie and sophomore years. That's 5 years of what I expect out of at least an above average NFL QB. Last two seasons have been rough, but there were a lot of things working against him.

I have a ton of data to counter the narrative that Mariota is a bad QB... but that's not going to change anyone's mind. Let's just agree to disagree.

His rookie season is really skewed by 2 games of 4 TD and 0 ints. While his overall rookie numbers look decent, take out those 2 monster games and he had 11 TDs, 10 picks, and 10 fumbles in 10 games. Not to mention his career stats against top 12 defenses compared to everyone else is staggering. Something like a 20 point difference in his QB rating. In the right system he might be ok, but he isn't anything special other than his athleticism at the QB position. His 2nd year (2016) he went on about a 7 game hot streak midseason against the defensive powerhouses of Indy twice, Cleveland, Miami, Jacksonville, Chicago, GB and the Chargers.

I've seen all the obscure data and metrics to try and justify Mariota is a good QB. When you have to go thru those lengths to justify a player is actually good, he probably isn't.

[Sriracha]

as opposed to the distant memories of a bright start of his career?
he's an athlete before than a QB.
he could turn it around, but i still think he's about a 0.7 on the dalton scale.

Based on his college profile + his rookie and sophomore years. That's 5 years of what I expect out of at least an above average NFL QB. Last two seasons have been rough, but there were a lot of things working against him.

I have a ton of data to counter the narrative that Mariota is a bad QB... but that's not going to change anyone's mind. Let's just agree to disagree.

His rookie season is really skewed by 2 games of 4 TD and 0 ints. While his overall rookie numbers look decent, take out those 2 monster games and he had 11 TDs, 10 picks, and 10 fumbles in 10 games. Not to mention his career stats against top 12 defenses compared to everyone else is staggering. Something like a 20 point difference in his QB rating. In the right system he might be ok, but he isn't anything special other than his athleticism at the QB position. His 2nd year (2016) he went on about a 7 game hot streak midseason against the defensive powerhouses of Indy twice, Cleveland, Miami, Jacksonville, Chicago, GB and the Chargers.

I've seen all the obscure data and metrics to try and justify Mariota is a good QB. When you have to go thru those lengths to justify a player is actually good, he probably isn't.

Every QB is going to look significantly worse when you just remove their best games.

To put this in perspective, Baker Mayfield's record and stats vs teams with a winning record last season: 1-5 W/L, 59.5% completion percentage, 10-11 TD/INT, 77 passer rating.

The narrative that he only does well vs bad competition is a bit strange; since his highest graded games last season came against DAL (who were a top 5 pass Defense at the time) and NE (who was middle of the pack).

But that's all I'll say on the subject I think it's fairly safe to say he's not an elite talent; I just feel like the hate on him has gone too far. He's not a terrible QB, and while he's nothing special as a passer I'd say he's about league average there while being very good under pressure.

[ArrylT]

I'm moving the Mariota discussion from the Contrarian thread to this thread - because (a) I think the purpose of the Contrarian thread was for owners to share their contrarian takes and (b) I feel that the Mariota discussion is worthwhile enough having that it shouldnt overcome but could overcome the main topic.

[BigBawseRoss]

remember that sick td pass he threw to himself? lol thats gonna be his career highlight

[Servo]

Mariota's profile coming out of Oregon was pretty damn good, a lot of analytics showed he had what it takes to succeed at the next level. Now, do you blame injuries, do you blame having Mike Mularkey and Mike Vrabel as Head Coaches (Aka non-QB guys)?

Not sure, because TEN has been a "decent" team for the last three years now but is Mariota holding them back? If I own him in a 2QB/SF league, I'm adding depth via the draft with guys like Murray, Haskins, Lock, Jones (lol) or grabbing another QB to be my QB2 and let Mariota be my QB3+.

[blemly]

I have a ton of data to counter the narrative that Mariota is a bad QB... but that's not going to change anyone's mind. Let's just agree to disagree.

why? i'm all ears!

I PM'd you in case you were actually curious and not just being facetious .

I don't think he is the only one that's interested. I am too, for one.

[kamihamster]

How quickly we forget. I remember coming off his 2nd season he was up there in QB ranks. He may not be elite, but I think he's a good QB. When you have no feeling in your throwing hand, it's going to affect the way you play. Injuries proneness aside, I think he's got the talent to be an above average QB.