Thoughts On Mariota??

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dizzler
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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby dizzler » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:10 pm

mild wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:55 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:29 pm
There is one major flaw with that statement. His best season was his 2nd year by far (2016). That was year 1 with Mularkey and the "Exotic Smashmouth" offense. He returned to the exact same offense in 2017, same playcaller, same weapons (but with a rookie Corey Davis now), and was awful. Absolute garbage. Why did he regress so bad the one time he walked into the same offense that he had success in? I think teams figured out his tendencies and he has been unable to counter thus far in his career...
I just like that the one big flaw in my argument is hinging on the offensive mastermind that is Mike Mularkey :lol:

I'll stand by it. Name one thing that has gone right for-or-around MM in his first 4 years. About the only thing I can think of? His offensive line is pretty good. Aaaaand... that's it.
Don't forget about Delanie Walker too ( minus last year)
Team 1 - Super Kamario Bros (12 Team - PPR) ( QB -1 , RB -2 , WR - 2, Te -1, FLX - 1, SuperFLX - 1, DP - 2, K- 1)
QB -Wentz, Newton, Ryan, Haskins (R)
RB -Zeke, Kamara, Drake, Ballage; Thompson, Ajayi
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_____________________________________________________________________________________
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QB - Jimmy G, Josh Allen, Mariota
RB - Kerryon, Jamaal Will, Drake, Ballage, Miles Sanders (R), Justice Hill (R), Myles Gaskins (R)
Wr - Micheal Thomas, Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Crowder, Coutee, Aj Brown (R), Marquise Brown (R), Keesean Johnson (R), Kelvin Harmon (R)
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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:13 pm

mild wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:55 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:29 pm
There is one major flaw with that statement. His best season was his 2nd year by far (2016). That was year 1 with Mularkey and the "Exotic Smashmouth" offense. He returned to the exact same offense in 2017, same playcaller, same weapons (but with a rookie Corey Davis now), and was awful. Absolute garbage. Why did he regress so bad the one time he walked into the same offense that he had success in? I think teams figured out his tendencies and he has been unable to counter thus far in his career...
I just like that the one big flaw in my argument is hinging on the offensive mastermind that is Mike Mularkey :lol:

I'll stand by it. Name one thing that has gone right for-or-around MM in his first 4 years. About the only thing I can think of? His offensive line is pretty good. Aaaaand... that's it.
You said you wanted him to have the same offense and coordinator more than 1 year. He had it, and he regressed terribly. Why? If you blame Mularkey, then why did it work so well the first year?

As for what has gone right. Well Demarco Murray led the AFC in rushing one year. Derrick Henry appears to be a decent RB. Delanie Walker has been a top 5 pass catching TE for Mariota's time in TN as well. The line has been above average as well.

His WR's have been subpar and the offensive staff has been less than exciting though so there is that.

Mariota has been given more excuses than any QB in recent history for under performing.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Moore, Allen
RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Dion Lewis, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
D/ST: Titans, Eagles
DL: Heyward
LB: Kendricks
DB: Harrison Smith

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:19 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:08 pm
Alex Smith also got screwed by a franchise that changed offensive systems every year and the only way he’s even remotely statistically comparable to Mariota is if you ignore the first five or so awful years of his career or just look at total yards per season, TDs per season, etc. Mariota dominates the rate stats outside of Int%.
That was a different era throwing the ball when Alex Smith was drafted in 2005. You know how many times a QB threw for 30 or more TDs in 2005 thru the 2008 season? 9 times. That same number of QBs threw for 30 or more TDs last year alone.

If Mariota's first few years were played 20 years ago we might be arguing he is on a HOF trajectory based on his numbers. But we aren't.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Moore, Allen
RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Dion Lewis, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
D/ST: Titans, Eagles
DL: Heyward
LB: Kendricks
DB: Harrison Smith

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby ericanadian » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:41 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:19 pm
ericanadian wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:08 pm
Alex Smith also got screwed by a franchise that changed offensive systems every year and the only way he’s even remotely statistically comparable to Mariota is if you ignore the first five or so awful years of his career or just look at total yards per season, TDs per season, etc. Mariota dominates the rate stats outside of Int%.
That was a different era throwing the ball when Alex Smith was drafted in 2005. You know how many times a QB threw for 30 or more TDs in 2005 thru the 2008 season? 9 times. That same number of QBs threw for 30 or more TDs last year alone.

If Mariota's first few years were played 20 years ago we might be arguing he is on a HOF trajectory based on his numbers. But we aren't.
And? Adjust Smith’s stats for those years all you like, they are still miles away from where Mariota is. Besides, higher passing volume is a big part of the increase in total touchdowns. YPA is up like 0.2-0.3. TD% is up 0.1-0.2. I ain’t buying it and you shouldn’t be selling it.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Mariota, Stafford
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee, Washington, Di. Johnson
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Cox
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds, Walker
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby ericanadian » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:46 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:13 pm
mild wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:55 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:29 pm
There is one major flaw with that statement. His best season was his 2nd year by far (2016). That was year 1 with Mularkey and the "Exotic Smashmouth" offense. He returned to the exact same offense in 2017, same playcaller, same weapons (but with a rookie Corey Davis now), and was awful. Absolute garbage. Why did he regress so bad the one time he walked into the same offense that he had success in? I think teams figured out his tendencies and he has been unable to counter thus far in his career...
I just like that the one big flaw in my argument is hinging on the offensive mastermind that is Mike Mularkey :lol:

I'll stand by it. Name one thing that has gone right for-or-around MM in his first 4 years. About the only thing I can think of? His offensive line is pretty good. Aaaaand... that's it.
You said you wanted him to have the same offense and coordinator more than 1 year. He had it, and he regressed terribly. Why? If you blame Mularkey, then why did it work so well the first year?

As for what has gone right. Well Demarco Murray led the AFC in rushing one year. Derrick Henry appears to be a decent RB. Delanie Walker has been a top 5 pass catching TE for Mariota's time in TN as well. The line has been above average as well.

His WR's have been subpar and the offensive staff has been less than exciting though so there is that.

Mariota has been given more excuses than any QB in recent history for under performing.
Fun fact. Matt Ryan also regressed in Mularkey’s system in year two.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Mariota, Stafford
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee, Washington, Di. Johnson
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Cox
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds, Walker
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby IZigUZag » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:47 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:13 pm
mild wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:55 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:29 pm
There is one major flaw with that statement. His best season was his 2nd year by far (2016). That was year 1 with Mularkey and the "Exotic Smashmouth" offense. He returned to the exact same offense in 2017, same playcaller, same weapons (but with a rookie Corey Davis now), and was awful. Absolute garbage. Why did he regress so bad the one time he walked into the same offense that he had success in? I think teams figured out his tendencies and he has been unable to counter thus far in his career...
I just like that the one big flaw in my argument is hinging on the offensive mastermind that is Mike Mularkey :lol:

I'll stand by it. Name one thing that has gone right for-or-around MM in his first 4 years. About the only thing I can think of? His offensive line is pretty good. Aaaaand... that's it.
You said you wanted him to have the same offense and coordinator more than 1 year. He had it, and he regressed terribly. Why? If you blame Mularkey, then why did it work so well the first year?
Mularkey did a bad job at masking his underlying situational tendencies. I'm sure you also noticed that it looked like defenses new exactly what play was called on numerous occasion during that 2017 season.

Obviously, Mariota played some role in his statistical regression (although it's interesting that 2017 was his highest graded year, hinting that the 2017 offensive regression was not solely his fault)... how much of the 2017 regression was on him, Mularkey, the O-line (that has continued to regress since 2016) or the decision to play Murray despite him being hampered by an injury all season... who knows.

We do know that Mariota came into the NFL as a much hyped NFL prospect who was supposed to succeed Brady/Brees as part of the next generation of great QBs. We know that lesser liked QB prospects like Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff have had much more success than him behind a coaching staff that has a track record of getting the most out of their QBs (maybe not with Watson), and we've seen them all make personnel moves that surrounded them with talent to grow around.

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby Factory of Sadness » Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:07 am

Mariota doesn't see the field very well. He doesn't feel pressure very well. He doesn't have an innate sense of timing and rhythm. He is also a streaky passer who is often inaccurate. Add to this his propensity for getting hurt and any cold-eyed look at him tells you that you have to move on. When we're still making excuses for a guy in Year 5 or 6 and finding reasons the passing game is often barely functional, then it's time to move on.

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:29 am

Titans are going to be forced to franchise him at this rate, unless they can work out a short-term deal.

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby ArrylT » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:46 pm

This may come as a surprise but Mariota has now gone 7 games without throwing an INT going back to last year (last INT was Week 14).

The only other QBs that have started 5 games this season and not thrown an INT I believe are Russell Wilson & Patrick Mahomes.

Its not much - but that is a positive sign I would assume. Also his Y/A is at its highest ever in his career at 7.91.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby mild » Tue Oct 08, 2019 6:05 pm

The MM haters + Corey Davis owners better hope he has another stinker pretty fast, because at this rate I don't see how they don't bring his brand of middling-success back for next year - either under Franchise Tag or (*gasps from audience*) a new deal...

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby ericanadian » Tue Oct 08, 2019 6:43 pm

The Titans are about to play Denver, who has consistently struggled to get to the QB. I expect good Mariota to make another appearance.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Mariota, Stafford
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee, Washington, Di. Johnson
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Cox
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds, Walker
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby ArrylT » Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:28 pm

They did get a piece of their O-Line back recently correct? If yes, hopefully another week of practice helps them gel.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby mild » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:44 am

ArrylT wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:28 pm
They did get a piece of their O-Line back recently correct? If yes, hopefully another week of practice helps them gel.
Yes, Taylor Lewan - probably the most talented player on a very good OL. He of the "fertility drugs" "crying apology video" fame.

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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby djeternal2 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:10 pm

mild wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 6:05 pm
The MM haters + Corey Davis owners better hope he has another stinker pretty fast, because at this rate I don't see how they don't bring his brand of middling-success back for next year - either under Franchise Tag or (*gasps from audience*) a new deal...
So are you saying 13 for 22 for 183 isn't a stinker?
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

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RB - Dam Williams, J Howard, Crowell, Duke, AP, Gore, B Hill
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, Kumerow, N Harry
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Re: Thoughts On Mariota??

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:28 pm

mild wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 6:05 pm
The MM haters + Corey Davis owners better hope he has another stinker pretty fast, because at this rate I don't see how they don't bring his brand of middling-success back for next year - either under Franchise Tag or (*gasps from audience*) a new deal...
I think the plan all along has been to franchise him after this year. Even if he had a great year this year and played all 16 games, those would be firsts for him. I would certainly make him prove it again before giving him a long term extension. If he stunk, you franchise him and let him play until the QB they most likely draft is ready to take over.

His stats are somewhat deceiving. He looked really good in the Atlanta game, getting the ball out quickly and had some great throws. That throw to AJ Brown in the endzone was a big time throw and catch, and easily his best pass of the year. The out he threw to Corey Davis was placed perfectly and well before Davis even made his break. The other 4 games he has been average to below average in each one. The Cleveland game is buyoed by a 75 yard screen pass to Derrick Henry where he went completely untouched. He was downright bad vs Indy and Jax, and was average at best vs Buffalo. He has taken a ton of sacks, and while they aren't all his fault, there are plenty of metrics to show that he actually has been given plenty of time to throw when compared to his peers.

Scroll to the very last "reason for dread" in the article that has some good stats and takes on the offense and Mariota as a whole.

https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2019/ ... nd-answers

I've said this before but his ceiling appears to be Alex Smith. Smith was solid and had a couple good years, but if that is the ceiling, Mariota is virtually useless in 1QB leagues and ideally would be your QB3 in SF leagues. I just don't see the fantasy relevance for him to even warrant a ton of discussion at this point.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Moore, Allen
RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Dion Lewis, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
D/ST: Titans, Eagles
DL: Heyward
LB: Kendricks
DB: Harrison Smith


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