Dynasty League Football Forum

This is an important topic as Antonio brown is one of the key sell before it's too late in the dynasty community.

The difference between brown and dt is brown is still the most valuable wr in the game. If we are betting who the top ppr wr is in 2017, I'm probably saying brown is the favorite (assuming Big Ben is there)

So brown is an ultimate win now piece. Still mega elite but it goes back to would you rather sell a year early than a year late?

Good topic and I agree. Brown should not be a top 5 dynasty startup pick. However, win now teams will value him that way as they probably should

I think AB will remain elite longer than other previous elite WRs have. He sure isn't slowing down yet and is one of those guys that's not taking a lot of hits as he's so fluid. I am more confident in the Steelers keeping a solid QB & overall team around him than I am of some other franchises. I think Roethlisberger will play a few more seasons.

Julio/Dez seem less inclined to crush it into their 33-35 Y/O seasons than AB. AB is so technical and finesse, not necessarily relying on flat out speed or physical prowess. He also hasn't had injury concerns. I see zero evidence that AB won't continue to crush it well into his 30's.

Guys I'd be more concerned about long-term than AB: Dez/Julio/Gronk/Alshon. I'd be more worried about DT's teammate Emmanuel than DT as well. Julian Edelman...

Some of the smaller elite WR's were still posting 1,000+ yard seasons well into their mid 30's. Wayne, Harrison, Bruce, and of course Rice who everyone compares Brown too posted 1,000 yards at age 40. Until injuries start to pop up on AB I wouldn't start worrying about selling. Unless you just want to cash in and get a windfall, then have at it.

I think this is an interesting topic because AB has been declining in FPPG over the past 2 years but is still the top WR in scoring over that time (2014- 15.6FPPG; 2015- 15.4FPPG; 2016- 13.4FPPG). One thing that I did notice over the past season that doesn't get talked about is AB's garbage time scoring. He had a handful of different plays this season where it was 10 seconds left in the half or at the end of a losing game and the DBs would be playing 30 yards off the line of scrimmage so they couldn't score on a hail mary, Ben would throw a little 10 yard check down to AB and he would run for another 15-20 yards or so and pick up 4 fantasy points or so. I don't think those will be as prevalent in the future and may knock off a few FPPG in the future.

I do think he can stay in the WR1 tier for another 3-4 years but I dont think he will be the top scorer anymore.

^^ I made this exact point about the probably 180 to 200 yards were garbage stats in another thread a couple weeks back , he had 5 or maybe more such plays and his # were still down and ben played 14 games this year(15 for brown). Ideally for the steelers as he ages he will be on the bench in garbage time rather than stuffing the stat sheet in search of the big$ he will get any day now. The steelers will add a wr through F/A or the draft and likely a TE as well , I see brown's dominance of the offense eroding gradually and feel like he is a great sell if you are getting true top wr value for him.

He'll decline sooner than later. His technical prowess is related to his short-area quickness. I'm not sure whether that's something that decreases at the same rate as long speed, but it does decline, and when it does so will his ability to get open on any given play. I sold him last year likely for less than he was worth, but ended up winning the championship with that team so feel it was worth it for me. He's been so dominant the past 4 or so seasons, but he has looked pretty pedestrian with non-Roethlisberger QBs, so that's something that would also push me to consider pulling the trigger on a trade. I got an offer in one of my leagues of AB, for Cooper, the 1.2 and 1.7. I laughed at the AB owner and said I wouldn't trade Cooper for him straight up, let alone add two firsts. Point is, AB owners need to realize that HE IS a declining asset, and although the decline may be slow and gradual, your window to get a haul for him is small, and closing.

I think a lot of people tied DT's success to Manning (sorta like Julius Thomas, but not as extreme), and once Manning began to decline/retire and we didn't know who would be the QB for the Broncos a year ago, people jumped ship. Age was used as a factor, but I don't think it was the main factor. Obviously DT put up huge numbers, but I wouldn't put him on the same level as AB in terms of talent. This is where age does play a factor because when you rely more on your physical talent to succeed and that begins to decline, you're not going to be as successful. As for AB, he's just a good football player and that will not change with age. Sure, there will be some decline in his game as well, but it'll probably take longer for him to stop performing at a higher level than someone like DT. Bigger WRs who rely on their size also take much more of a beating (just look at Calvin). I'm not saying that AB is "age proof," but I'd bet on him to continue being elite for an extra 2-3 years compared to DT. With that said, I'd be trying to sell AB at his current price unless I'm truly a contender (and even then, I might still trade him depending on what I can get back).

AB is not 'Age Proof'. There is no correlation between being elite and longevity. We had this very same conversation about Calvin Johnson and people swore he would dominate for AT LEAST 3-5 more years(the threads are funny now)....

Jason3123 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:34 am Julio/Dez seem less inclined to crush it into their 33-35 Y/O seasons than AB. AB is so technical and finesse, not necessarily relying on flat out speed or physical prowess. He also hasn't had injury concerns. I see zero evidence that AB won't continue to crush it well into his 30's.

Guys I'd be more concerned about long-term than AB: Dez/Julio/Gronk/Alshon. I'd be more worried about DT's teammate Emmanuel than DT as well. Julian Edelman...

X2. DT has tons of talent, but he is a total knucklehead sometimes on the field, and seems to forget he has elite talent at times, a la Brandon Marshall. AB and Julio are 2 guys who never seem to make those types of mistakes

Btw please don't think I'm trying to knock DT, I'm not. Just comparing him to the all-world AB

dm1129 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:23 pm AB is not 'Age Proof'. There is no correlation between being elite and longevity. We had this very same conversation about Calvin Johnson and people swore he would dominate for AT LEAST 3-5 more years(the threads are funny now)....

Well, he did put up 1200/9 in his last year...if it weren't for early retirement, I think he would have continued to put up high-end stats for a few years.

Wow. So many false comparisons and logical inconsistencies here. Let's clear some things up.

1) The reason that DT and AB are valued differently is not because of the issue "age proof"ism bur rather production. AB has been the #1 WR in football the past few years; DT has been a lower-end WR1. AB continues to be a reasonable bet to continue his elite production over the short-term; DT has little to no reasonable hope of becoming a top-5 WR again. Let's also say (arbitrarily; pick any percent) that each one's production will decline by 25% two years out and for the following couple of years. AB is still a low WR1 or top WR2; DT would likely be a WR3 or Flex. Put all that together, and it would be hard to devalue AB too much at this point, but it's reasonable to devalue DT more.

2) The player comps in this thread are picked to justify an opinion. But, let's be honest: there are both bigger and smaller WRs who have aged well and productively (e.g., Fitzgerald; Steve Smith) and who have aged unproductively. Here's what I know: neither DT nor AB has any real injury history, so we're simply guessing. Given that neither's skills have yet seemed to decline and that they're both healthy, I don't see any reason to guess that either's body will betray him soon.

3) AB is also simply a better WR. DT makes some mistakes -- especially drops -- on the field. An older player who is reliable (e.g., Boldin) retains more value than an older player who is unreliable. Another point for AB.

Finally, we have to note situation. This year, we don't know who is throwing DT the ball, but we do know that he still produces even with a lesser QB. We presume that Big Ben is throwing to AB, but his production is more in question with a lesser QB. And we don't know how long Big Ben will continue to the be the QB for Pit. In addition, DT did put up monster numbers with Peyton. Note, though, that it wasn't the top-2 WRs whose numbers really suffered when Peyton's play declined; rather, it was WR3 and TE.

In short, neither DT nor AB have given us any indication that they are at-risk players for a decline any time soon (players like Dez, on the other hand, have). Their comparative values is tied, IMO, exclusive to their on-field production and their different likelihood of producing future elite WR numbers and/or WR1 numbers.

moishetreats wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:18 pm The reason that DT and AB are valued differently is not because of the issue "age proof"ism bur rather production. AB has been the #1 WR in football the past few years; DT has been a lower-end WR1.

You've got a number of good notations in your post but my problem overall is this...

During the 2016 off season, DT was trading for a single early 1st round pick in some leagues. Presently AB is not only commanding multiple 1sts, they either need to be early ones or include a high end young player in a trade with them. This is a huge disparity in value of these two that I do not agree with. Either AB is overvalued or DT is undervalued - maybe a little bit of both.

I think AB will continue to play at a high level for maybe for 3 years but I think we will be seeing a downward trend already taking place.

I honestly can't think of a WR that was devalued based solely on age. What I think age does is prevents a guy from recovering value lost due to other issues. Andre Johnson lost value due to hamstring issues, and never recovered it due to age. Dez lost value due to leg issues and I suspect he'll never recover it due to age. DT was widely considered the sixth best receiver and the narrative was that his value was largely built on Manning. When Manning went from having one of his best seasons to one of his worst, that devalued DT. No one spent too much effort re-evaluating the narrative because of his age. Julio barely escaped this after the ankle issues and still retains significant value. AB will be fine so long as there is no narrative developing that he's an injury risk nor falling off in terms of production.

What is his actual risk? Tough to say. His dominance is built on his elite quickness and solid route running. Quickness is one of the first things to degrade with age, while technique is how a lot of guys continue to play at a high level late into their career. I'm not sure AB's technique alone will allow him to drop top five seasons for the next five years, but I suspect it will provide a floor of WR2 production.

Brown is Marvin Harrison. Harrison was putting up elite numbers until age 34. He could have produced longer if not for a knee injury at age 35. I could easily see Brown putting up WR1 numbers for the next 5-6 years. He's just too skilled and smart a receiver, and he's always Big Ben's 1st read.

I'm sure Brown's dynasty value will decline soon, but he'll still be someone who wins you leagues for a long, long time.