Antonio Brown - Alive & Well in TB?

[Cameron Giles]

I'm not doubting that Brown can be good. His talent was never in question, but he's also never shared the field with pass catchers who are on the same level as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who are both Top 10 WRs.

I do not see Tampa's offense funneling targets to one specific player, because it doesn't match what they've done so far. Brown will have good games, but it's going to be a balance of threats. Potentially, you're going to have pick your poison. They're not signing Brown to make him the centerpiece of their offense.

[skinfanjon]

I don't see Brown consuming all the targets at all.

Targets per game right now:

Godwin - 6.6
Evans - 6.1
Howard - 4.7 (out)
Gronk - 4.6
Jones - 4.1
Miller - 3.8

Brady has been spreading the ball around to everyone. Tampa is 7th in passing attempts per game as well, so they're already airing it out a bunch.

The only way I see Evans and Godwin maintaining their current targets is if Gronk, Miller, and Jones drop some in their target share to fit Brown in AND Tampa increases their attempts. Otherwise, I just don't see how anyone can expect Brown to walk in to 8-10 targets per game, when nobody else is getting that right now in Tampa.

Ideally, you would hope for a Manning's Broncos situation where Evans = Thomas, Godwin = Decker, Brown = Welker, and sometimes Gronk = Julius, but again...the passing has to increase even more.

The average target figures is exactly why this bodes so well for AB. Brady doesn't have a favorite at the moment. If Godwin were getting 12 targets a game it would foretell a much dimmer outlook. AB can walk in and become the preferred option immediately- that outcome is definitely in play.

[Yarnith]

I don't see Brown consuming all the targets at all.

Targets per game right now:

Godwin - 6.6
Evans - 6.1
Howard - 4.7 (out)
Gronk - 4.6
Jones - 4.1
Miller - 3.8

Brady has been spreading the ball around to everyone. Tampa is 7th in passing attempts per game as well, so they're already airing it out a bunch.

The only way I see Evans and Godwin maintaining their current targets is if Gronk, Miller, and Jones drop some in their target share to fit Brown in AND Tampa increases their attempts. Otherwise, I just don't see how anyone can expect Brown to walk in to 8-10 targets per game, when nobody else is getting that right now in Tampa.

Ideally, you would hope for a Manning's Broncos situation where Evans = Thomas, Godwin = Decker, Brown = Welker, and sometimes Gronk = Julius, but again...the passing has to increase even more.

The average target figures is exactly why this bodes so well for AB. Brady doesn't have a favorite at the moment. If Godwin were getting 12 targets a game it would foretell a much dimmer outlook. AB can walk in and become the preferred option immediately- that outcome is definitely in play.

He could also look like Gronk did for the next 5 weeks and be fantasy irrelevant long enough that no one cares he got signed. He has to be reinstated still, the suspension was for a "minimum" of 8weeks. There is always a chance of any outcome but your rose colored classes are heavily shaded. Bruce Arians is a bad personnel coach so you have to worry that even if he gets on the field and then balls out his ego doesn't explode all over some female trainer or equipment manager just doing his job and splash onto the front page of the Tampa Tribune. I wouldn't touch the guy on my fantasy team because at his age and with his style of play he's closer to Larry Fitzgerald than Michael Thomas. The best I can see is he is a WR2-3 for next year and 3-4 til he retires after that.

[bjd5211]

I wouldn't touch the guy on my fantasy team because at his age and with his style of play he's closer to Larry Fitzgerald than Michael Thomas. The best I can see is he is a WR2-3 for next year and 3-4 til he retires after that.

Fitzgerald is 37, AB is 32, at 32 years old Fitz had 109/1215/9 and 2 more 100 catch seasons after that. Doubting his mental state and ability to stay out of trouble is a valid and warranted concern, but anyone questioning his playing abilities is just silly.

[Yarnith]

I wouldn't touch the guy on my fantasy team because at his age and with his style of play he's closer to Larry Fitzgerald than Michael Thomas. The best I can see is he is a WR2-3 for next year and 3-4 til he retires after that.

Fitzgerald is 37, AB is 32, at 32 years old Fitz had 109/1215/9 and 2 more 100 catch seasons after that. Doubting his mental state and ability to stay out of trouble is a valid and warranted concern, but anyone questioning his playing abilities is just silly.

So AB will be 33 when he can play a full season and I think its not crazy to say he would do good to match Fitz's 800yd 6 td-esk performances for the next 4 years. My math says that is WR2 territory next year and 3-4 after that. So I am literally saying I think his ceiling is to mirror Fitz for the rest of his career and that is somehow what? insulting to his talent? OK man.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I wouldn't touch the guy on my fantasy team because at his age and with his style of play he's closer to Larry Fitzgerald than Michael Thomas. The best I can see is he is a WR2-3 for next year and 3-4 til he retires after that.

Fitzgerald is 37, AB is 32, at 32 years old Fitz had 109/1215/9 and 2 more 100 catch seasons after that. Doubting his mental state and ability to stay out of trouble is a valid and warranted concern, but anyone questioning his playing abilities is just silly.

So AB will be 33 when he can play a full season and I think its not crazy to say he would do good to match Fitz's 800yd 6 td-esk performances for the next 4 years. My math says that is WR2 territory next year and 3-4 after that. So I am literally saying I think his ceiling is to mirror Fitz for the rest of his career and that is somehow what? insulting to his talent? OK man.

Why would you say you “wouldn’t touch” a WR2 on your fantasy team?

[captain howdy]

Fitzgerald is 37, AB is 32, at 32 years old Fitz had 109/1215/9 and 2 more 100 catch seasons after that. Doubting his mental state and ability to stay out of trouble is a valid and warranted concern, but anyone questioning his playing abilities is just silly.

So AB will be 33 when he can play a full season and I think its not crazy to say he would do good to match Fitz's 800yd 6 td-esk performances for the next 4 years. My math says that is WR2 territory next year and 3-4 after that. So I am literally saying I think his ceiling is to mirror Fitz for the rest of his career and that is somehow what? insulting to his talent? OK man.

Why would you say you “wouldn’t touch” a WR2 on your fantasy team?

Ceiling.

Whats the floor? Fantastic flame out of the league. Its reasonable to question the price and worth of a player who offers that and decide not to touch them

[FantasyFreak]

Fitzgerald is 37, AB is 32, at 32 years old Fitz had 109/1215/9 and 2 more 100 catch seasons after that. Doubting his mental state and ability to stay out of trouble is a valid and warranted concern, but anyone questioning his playing abilities is just silly.

So AB will be 33 when he can play a full season and I think its not crazy to say he would do good to match Fitz's 800yd 6 td-esk performances for the next 4 years. My math says that is WR2 territory next year and 3-4 after that. So I am literally saying I think his ceiling is to mirror Fitz for the rest of his career and that is somehow what? insulting to his talent? OK man.

Why would you say you “wouldn’t touch” a WR2 on your fantasy team?

AB's style of play is like Manny Sanders plus, not Fitz.

[Yarnith]

So AB will be 33 when he can play a full season and I think its not crazy to say he would do good to match Fitz's 800yd 6 td-esk performances for the next 4 years. My math says that is WR2 territory next year and 3-4 after that. So I am literally saying I think his ceiling is to mirror Fitz for the rest of his career and that is somehow what? insulting to his talent? OK man.

Why would you say you “wouldn’t touch” a WR2 on your fantasy team?

Ceiling.

Whats the floor? Fantastic flame out of the league. Its reasonable to question the price and worth of a player who offers that and decide not to touch them

This

AB's style of play is like Manny Sanders plus, not Fitz.

I am not saying AB plays like Fitz to be clear. I am saying his style isn't heavily speed dependent so I don't think he will not fall off as bad as aging burners do. The Fitz comparison is just what I think is reasonable expected statistical production. AB is in the twilight side(Fitz) not his prime like (MT).

[saw061600]

People bringing up "but this guy did it at 32" are the same suckers you sell 32 year old WRs to because they ignore the fact that most WRs are way past prime before 31 and very rare is the WR that can keep it together 32 and beyond. Outliers are exceptions to the rule and never should be used in reasoned decision making. Of course AB could be great, but that will just make him a lucky outlier for a lucky owner if it happens.

[TD41]

I dont worry so much about AB's age... I'd be more concerned if he were built like Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas etc..

[bjd5211]

Most WRs aren't HOF talents and among the best to ever play the position either, which like him or not AB is.

[Yarnith]

Most WRs aren't HOF talents and among the best to ever play the position either, which like him or not AB is.

He may have the career of Jerry Rice or TO but I wouldn't pay for him like he will. I like metrics and the odds are stacked heavily in my favor to steer clear. Its the kind of thing I don't mind being wrong about down the road. I always have contending teams by being more conservative and moves like acquiring AB for the trades shown above are how teams have irregular success IMO.

Only gamble with house money(waivers) never your mortgage payment.

[Kelldon]

I think there is just too many mouths to feed in TB. Evans, Godwin, Gronk, AB, Rojo, LF. With their defense being really good there will be several games where late 3rd quarter on they will be leaning on run. Evans, Godwin, and AB will all have great games just a matter which on every week. Could really be a big headache for fantasy.

[thebeast]

AB to TB is definitely a big blow to Evans and Godwin. I think AB will be the number 1 WR in TB, or at least match Godwin numbers.

For all those who said Godwin is vastly more valuable than CeeDee in Dynasty, need to reevaluate.

So you mean basically everyone? I don’t think there is a single Godwin owner who would trade Godwin for Lamb. I also doubt there are any startups where Lamb has or will go first, even next year.

I own Godwin and will gladly trade him for Lamb.

Wow, I’m surprised and I guess I’m wrong. AB is a one year deal, there’s a good bet he doesn’t keep his head straight and finIsh the season in Tamps Bay. Lamb is facing easy coverage as he has two great WRs playing alongside him and one of the best RBs in the game. I am not saying this will happen to Lamb, but we saw what happened with Juju once AB left; so there is risk when Cooper lives on and Lamb faces #1 coverage. I think these feelings are regency bias.