Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[Pullo Vision]

I'm not saying that Kupp can't produce WR1-like numbers, because he absolutely can. However, if you are trading for him or drafting him as a WR1, you are going to be disappointed long-term.

Where is your comfort level with him in your lineup. WR2? 3rd WR? 4th?

[Jigga94]

I'm not saying that Kupp can't produce WR1-like numbers, because he absolutely can. However, if you are trading for him or drafting him as a WR1, you are going to be disappointed long-term.

Where is your comfort level with him in your lineup. WR2? 3rd WR? 4th?

2nd for me, but I feel like a championship roster has probably 2 better WR on it.

[Mike from Canada]

He was my WR4 behind MT, Adams and Allen and slightly ahead of Sutton.

[Mike from Canada]

He's a wr1 today.

[remedy29]

He was my WR4 behind MT, Adams and Allen and slightly ahead of Sutton.

Sure...if you have THE #1 WR in 2018 and 2019, Kupp may not be your top 2 WR.

Kupp is one of 12 WRs to score 270+ points in 1 point PPR leagues over the past 3 seasons, so he has that going for him.

Over his other 23 games, he averages 13.6 points/game which is solid mid WR2 range.

So his floor seems to be mid WR2, ceiling mid WR1 (which he has reached already).

It's hard for me to comprehend how Kupp is not considered a top 12 WR in PPR.

[djeternal2]

He was my WR4 behind MT, Adams and Allen and slightly ahead of Sutton.

Sure...if you have THE #1 WR in 2018 and 2019, Kupp may not be your top 2 WR.

Kupp is one of 12 WRs to score 270+ points in 1 point PPR leagues over the past 3 seasons, so he has that going for him.

Over his other 23 games, he averages 13.6 points/game which is solid mid WR2 range.

So his floor seems to be mid WR2, ceiling mid WR1 (which he has reached already).

It's hard for me to comprehend how Kupp is not considered a top 12 WR in PPR.

Let me lay this out in a way you can comprehend it. He's a WR2 that can put up WR1 #s in the right situation. If he has enough of those weeks he can give you a WR1 season (see this year). But he's not a WR1. Tyler Higbee effectively took his role the last 5-6 weeks. WR1s don't get usurped by middling 4th yr TEs.

[remedy29]

So, if you believe that the Rams will turn into a predominantly 2 TE set team, which will reduce Kupp’s playing time and targets, then yes, I agree with you that Kupp may be a mid WR2 in that scenario. I do agree Higbee has cut into some of Kupp’s production, but not to the point that Kupp cannot be a WR1 with Higbee. And I do not believe the Rams will be a predominantly 2 TE team.

Also, an alternative fact about Higbee is he is/was a very talented TE who is a top 10 paid TE in the league. So I am not sure if middling TE is a fair assessment of Higbee. He is a TE that has come into his own after being in the league for a few years (I thought that is what TEs are supposed to do and why “generational talent” players like Hockensen get to stink early in their careers?).

Let’s look at what Kupp has accomplished;

#4 WR in 2019.

#24 WR over the past two years (if you allow him to prorate a 12 points per game average for the 8 games he missed, he would be a top 10 WR over the past 2 seasons).

#18 WR over the past 3 years (including his red shirt rookie year where he was a 3rd round pick just learning how to play pro football). If you prorate 12 points per game for the 8 he missed, he would be top 12 WR over the past 3 years.

If we take 16 points as producing WR1 numbers, then Kupp has produced a total of 15 at WR1 numbers the past two seasons. Only 9 WRs have produced more (M Thomas 25, Devante Adams 24, Hopkins 22, Edelman 20, Julio 19, Keenan Allen 18, Golladay 17, Woods 17, Mike Evans 17).

In 2019, Kupp had 9 such games over 16 pts, with only 3 producing more (M Thomas, Hopkins, Edelman).

On a per game basis, Kupp has produced at WR1 level 63% of the time the past two years 15 times/24 games, only M Thomas, Devante Adams and Hopkins have done better on a per game basis.

If you take Kupp’s last 7 games, Kupp averaged about 15 points per game which would be right near the WR1 (top 12) level. ONLY IF, you take Kupp’s last 8 games (where he scored 0 points in week 10), then you come to the conclusion that Kupp is a WR 2 averaging 12.8 points per game.
HOWEVER, you would have to ignore Kupp’s previous 15 games where Kupp averaged an ELITE 20 points per game.

There are some clear cut Elite WR’s such as M Thomas, Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, Goodwin. But after that, the next 15 WRs or so are closely ranked, they are all talented and in the right situation will produce top numbers. However, over the past two seasons Kupp has out produced, in PPR fantasy points, most all of the remaining WR’s outside the top few elite players.

[Kmani6]

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Hill
Julio
Evans
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ
Golladay
Moore
JuJu

Here are potentially 12 dynasty WR1s. Who does Kupp replace? Kupp is about to be 27. He’s essentially the same age as OBJ, KA, Evans, which is crazy considering how much they have accomplished.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm not saying that Kupp can't produce WR1-like numbers, because he absolutely can. However, if you are trading for him or drafting him as a WR1, you are going to be disappointed long-term.

Where is your comfort level with him in your lineup. WR2? 3rd WR? 4th?

Ideally, he's my 3rd WR. Probably won't happen in a startup, but possible in a league that's been running

[hoos89]

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Hill
Julio
Evans
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ
Golladay
Moore
JuJu

Here are potentially 12 dynasty WR1s. Who does Kupp replace? Kupp is about to be 27. He’s essentially the same age as OBJ, KA, Evans, which is crazy considering how much they have accomplished.

Is JuJu really just gonna get a pass for the 42/552/3 stat line he just posted for the season?

[Cameron Giles]

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Hill
Julio
Evans
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ
Golladay
Moore
JuJu

Here are potentially 12 dynasty WR1s. Who does Kupp replace? Kupp is about to be 27. He’s essentially the same age as OBJ, KA, Evans, which is crazy considering how much they have accomplished.

Is JuJu really just gonna get a pass for the 42/552/3 stat line he just posted for the season?

Given the reasons why that happened, he should.

[Jigga94]

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Hill
Julio
Evans
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ
Golladay
Moore
JuJu

Here are potentially 12 dynasty WR1s. Who does Kupp replace? Kupp is about to be 27. He’s essentially the same age as OBJ, KA, Evans, which is crazy considering how much they have accomplished.

Is JuJu really just gonna get a pass for the 42/552/3 stat line he just posted for the season?

Given the reasons why that happened, he should.

Agreed. I wouldn't hold being hurt and having his offense crumble around him... Rudolph/Hodges and RB by committee most of the year. Doesn't sound like he was set up for much success. But hey, if you wanna drop a guy who had a bad situation out of the top 12 for a guy who had a good situation, go for it. That sounds more like redraft to me

[FantasyFreak]

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Hill
Julio
Evans
Keenan Allen
Godwin
OBJ
Golladay
Moore
JuJu

Here are potentially 12 dynasty WR1s. Who does Kupp replace? Kupp is about to be 27. He’s essentially the same age as OBJ, KA, Evans, which is crazy considering how much they have accomplished.

Is JuJu really just gonna get a pass for the 42/552/3 stat line he just posted for the season?

Given the reasons why that happened, he should.

Agreed. He posted a (what turned out to be) a very respectable 6 for 78 vs Gilmore and the Pats with Ben to start the year. The QB situation was atrocious after that, he missed games due to injury, and played hurt a good portion of the games he did play.

[pvillebiker]

Kupp's receiving yards by game since Week 5:

...

He was always going to regress from the unsustainable volume he was getting, but Woods and Higbee made it a lot worse.

Again, very good slot WR, but not a premier WR or a player you should be drafting as one.

So no chance Kupp has top 10 WR production again next season or the one after that then aye? Note even with the above drop, he's still overall PPR WR6 on the year, even with the Rams spreading the ball out lots more in the 2H.

Totally agree on the inevitable volume regression and said as much back when you initially made that point, even if truthfully I didn't expect *this* big a drop. However, I'd be as careful concluding the above data set is "the truth" compass for future Kupp production as you are in recommending discounting his 1st half of the season. I'd bet the truth is probably somewhere in between. Yes I'm an unapologetic Kupp dynasty truther, but I still see him as likely to put up WR1 #'s next season if/when the Rams figure out their schtuff. Could be exactly wrong, but that's the fun of it all.

I'm not saying that Kupp can't produce WR1-like numbers, because he absolutely can. However, if you are trading for him or drafting him as a WR1, you are going to be disappointed long-term.

Fair point on paying WR1 prices for Kupp. However, the beauty of Kupp's dynasty value is you've never really had to draft him as a WR1 to get him. Ever. And even if I had, so far he's not disappointed. We'll see next year - but he's got just as good a chance as the bottom half of current WR1 dynasty lists to produce again as a WR1 next year. Assuming the Rams don't radically alter their offense. Even so, I'd bet Kupp would still be central to whatever they do as long as Goff and McVay are there. Kupp's one of those guys like Edelman was for years that is just not viewed as a WR1 and never will be by some, but yet year in and year out produces as a 1.

Really boils down to how you answer "what is a WR1?" - i.e. what definition of WR1 one chooses to accept. Many (most?) seem to focus on WR1's fitting the dynasty mold of perceived Talent as the ultimate measuring stick most likely to yield top productivity over the long run. Talent over situation right? Which means some combo of the prototypical WR physical traits (big, strong, tall, fast, springy) and perceived ball skills (route tree, catch rate, ability to get open, yada yada). It's understandable to latch onto these quantitative metrics. To me personally, the non-quantitative (often unmeasurable) traits are just as important. And sometimes drive production as much or more. Situation - chemistry with the QB, role / fit in the offense, coaching stability. And intangibles like the will to be consistently productive, capability to overcome and impose your will on the defense. Yes these non-quants can change, but so can physical traits.

It's not random coincidence that virtually all of the current consensus WR1's (Hopkins, Adams, MT, Tyreek, Keenan, Julio, Evans/Godwin - 1 could argue Winston is both a great and terrible passer) are paired with great passing QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Ryan, Winston) that they have great chemistry with, with few exceptions (OBJ, JuJu this year, Diggs every other week. .) How many of these obvious WR1's would still be WR1's if they didn't have a great passer throwing them the ball? Not asking if they'd succeed or be productive. Most probably would. But would they be WR1's still? I bet half wouldn't be. Example - let's see how well Godwin or Evans do if Winston's shown the door. Look at Perriman's gaudy #'s with Winston. He was left for dead and is the overall WR3 over the last 5 weeks with Winston.

[BucBuc]

I'm not sure if this is a bump to Kupps value or not??... I feel like it's a slight bump ...Thoughts?