Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[hoos89]

I've been targeting Kupp and have a trade offer extended that gives Sutton + 2020 2nd + 2021 1st. I think that will get it done, and seems right in terms of value. Note - the Kupp owner is rebuilding and I'm contending.

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

You might be right - the deal is still open.

But I really like Sutton's potential. He's bigger, faster, more agile and is climbing the charts (non-ppr #10) despite sharing the load with Sanders and almost equal the stats as Kupp minus the TDs despite almost half of the receptions. I may be giving up a better and younger WR1 on top of picks.

Buttom line is I love Kupp this year, but I see it as long-term sacrifice for sure.

It's difficult to tell how much a WR is excelling in spite of sharing targets with another good WR, or because they're sharing targets (and coverage) with another good WR. Careful using that reasoning to bump him up your rankings (although I do like Sutton). Also....401 receiving yards is not "almost" 505. Kupp is on pace for 143/1940/15...Sutton is on pace for 83/1,283/10. Like yeah in non-PPR they're closer but Kupp and Sutton are not that close in terms of production so far this season (although Kupp is virtually certain to regress RoS). And Kupp's value is driven in large part by the fact that he gets a metric shitton of volume and is Goff's go-to guy, which in theory gives Kupp the much safer floor (in PPR at least).

[Mike from Canada]

I've been targeting Kupp and have a trade offer extended that gives Sutton + 2020 2nd + 2021 1st. I think that will get it done, and seems right in terms of value. Note - the Kupp owner is rebuilding and I'm contending.

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

Three firsts in value is getting into #1 dynasty asset territory.

[hoos89]

I've been targeting Kupp and have a trade offer extended that gives Sutton + 2020 2nd + 2021 1st. I think that will get it done, and seems right in terms of value. Note - the Kupp owner is rebuilding and I'm contending.

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

Three firsts in value is getting into #1 dynasty asset territory.

Send an offer of 3 firsts for Saquon and let me know how quickly it gets rejected.

[cdubbaya]

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

You might be right - the deal is still open.

But I really like Sutton's potential. He's bigger, faster, more agile and is climbing the charts (non-ppr #10) despite sharing the load with Sanders and almost equal the stats as Kupp minus the TDs despite almost half of the receptions. I may be giving up a better and younger WR1 on top of picks.

Buttom line is I love Kupp this year, but I see it as long-term sacrifice for sure.

It's difficult to tell how much a WR is excelling in spite of sharing targets with another good WR, or because they're sharing targets (and coverage) with another good WR. Careful using that reasoning to bump him up your rankings (although I do like Sutton). Also....401 receiving yards is not "almost" 505. Kupp is on pace for 143/1940/15...Sutton is on pace for 83/1,283/10. Like yeah in non-PPR they're closer but Kupp and Sutton are not that close in terms of production so far this season (although Kupp is virtually certain to regress RoS). And Kupp's value is driven in large part by the fact that he gets a metric shitton of volume and is Goff's go-to guy, which in theory gives Kupp the much safer floor (in PPR at least).

What I mean by "almost" is on a weekly basis you are gaining a bit over 2 pts per game with Kupp over Sutton. Is that a lot? Over time, sure, but I think Sutton trends upward and I think Kupp is at his peak (meaning I don't expect Kupp to go 100+ yards every game).

Sutton is currently higher in snap count, yards per reception, red zone receptions, and they are seeing similar defenses (neither of them are being pressed often or double covered). The huge difference is that the Rams throw on average 10 more passes per game, and right now Kupp gets over 28% of the targets vs Sutton's 23%. So will it change as Sutton gets more involved in the offence? Maybe, but at 24 years old, he has a runway to establish himself, similar to what Davante Adams did with Jordy and Cobb. I'm not saying Sutton is Adams, but their metrics are almost identical at the same point in their careers..... unfortunately Flacco is not Rodgers

Like I said, I'm targeting Kupp and have the trade offer open, but I think Sutton could have a higher ceiling long-term.

[bjd5211]

I like Sutton, but I probably would want that 2021 1st to be a mid-2020 1st in order to consider.

Three firsts in value is getting into #1 dynasty asset territory.

Send an offer of 3 firsts for Saquon and let me know how quickly it gets rejected.

If all I'm getting is random 1's for Saquon you better be starting off with 5-6 to get me to even consider it.

[hoos89]

Like I said, if you're talking non-PPR then it's much closer because you're missing out on another ~4 ppg in receptions. 2 ppg is not insignificant in non-PPR though.

Not sure what you mean by Sutton being higher in snap count given that Kupp has had 340 offensive snaps and Sutton has had 303. Maybe you meant snap % (which seems like kind of a weird comparison across teams, and also I think Kupp might have gotten dinged up last week and missed a couple drives or something because he usually plays 90%+ of snaps). Yards per reception is not a super meaningful fantasy stat...higher yards per reception is often correlated with less consistent production. The top guys in that stat are typically boom/bust deep threats. Sutton literally has one additional red zone target, so they're essentially even in that regard.

Also I don't think the Broncos will suddenly become the Rams. Might Sutton see increased target share over time? Sure. Will the Broncos be top 10 in passing volume at some point with Flacco under center? I don't see it. Also in addition to Rodgers being much better than Flacco, the Packers last season (Adams' best by far) threw 6.4 more times per game (#2 in NFL) than this season's Broncos (#21 in NFL).

Of course Sutton COULD have a higher ceiling long term because pretty much anything is possible, but Kupp's ceiling in PPR is pretty damn high (again...he's materially less valuable in non-PPR).

Three firsts in value is getting into #1 dynasty asset territory.

Send an offer of 3 firsts for Saquon and let me know how quickly it gets rejected.

If all I'm getting is random 1's for Saquon you better be starting off with 5-6 to get me to even consider it.

I could actually see someone going for 1.01, 1.02 and 1.03 once they're 100% locked in given the hype at the top of this class. Jeudy + Swift + Taylor is pretty enticing...but that's not what is typically meant by "3 firsts". Then again I just looked at the thread discussing a trade of DJ + Fournette + Evans for Barkley and all the posts saying that Barkley is the better side of that equation.

[bjd5211]

Then again I just looked at the thread discussing a trade of DJ + Fournette + Evans for Barkley and all the posts saying that Barkley is the better side of that equation.

I'm one of them.

[joeya2001]

Then again I just looked at the thread discussing a trade of DJ + Fournette + Evans for Barkley and all the posts saying that Barkley is the better side of that equation.

I'm one of them.

Unfortunately I would agree as well.

DJ is a aging asset, Fournette is to hurt and ME as much as I love his is Boom or Bust

[Phaded]

Gurley set to be out this week.

O/U on Kupp targets 17.5...

Takers? lol...

[Ice]

Under

[Jigga94]

Quiet in here

[ckrumm24]

Quiet in here

Panic sell?!.

Side note: I had A. cooper, K.Allen, and Kupp as my WRs this week and I’m still going to win somehow. 🤮

[trc]

Quiet in here

Even if Kupp scooped up all 78 passing yards by Goof, you would probably have said the same thing..

[Jigga94]

Quiet in here

Even if Kupp scooped up all 78 passing yards by Goof, you would probably have said the same thing..

So his situation went from perfect to terrible for a week. When it's perfect it's because of him and when it's terrible it had nothing to do with him?

Not a Kupp hater, I'm with everyone else saying he's in that 10-12 range for WR. Just making a statement of how bad this week was

[hoos89]

Quiet in here

Even if Kupp scooped up all 78 passing yards by Goof, you would probably have said the same thing..

So his situation went from perfect to terrible for a week. When it's perfect it's because of him and when it's terrible it had nothing to do with him?

Not a Kupp hater, I'm with everyone else saying he's in that 10-12 range for WR. Just making a statement of how bad this week was

It's hard to knock a WR that much when the whole offense imploded for a week, though.