Michael Thomas Thread: Still a WR1?

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Jigga94
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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:11 am

Anteaters wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:23 am Reminder: Though he will be eligible to return from the PUP list after 6 games, that is not the same as saying the doctors have predicted he will actually be healthy and ready to play football at that time.

What this actually means is NO is absolutely certain MT will be unavailable for AT LEAST the first 6 games, so they are giving themselves the opportunity to take MT off the active roster and add a player who can help them on the field for the first 6 games. After the 6th game, NO has to activate MT to the active roster and allow him to practice, and they have 3 weeks to either put him back on the field or move him to IR. They don't know right now if he will be able to play, but PUP was their best option between IR (seasonlong), Active (but unable to help for many weeks), or PUP. If there was a 9-week PUP option, NO might have chosen that.

I don't think there is any chance MT actually plays in week 7. Or 8. Or week 9.
Not 7... not 8... not 9

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby MFundercover » Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:17 am

2 years ago a team in my league traded Russ, Diggs, and a 1st for MT. He had Lamar going in his MVP year and Thomas made him unstoppable on the way to the title.

Crazy how much different that trade looks now than it did when it was made.

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby timeEd32 » Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:30 am

MT won me a championship in 2019 and I traded him the Monday after week 1 last year (with Melvin Gordon) for DJM and Miles Sanders.

Not sure I'll ever time the peak of a player better in my life.

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Anteaters » Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:46 am

timeEd32 wrote: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:30 am MT won me a championship in 2019 and I traded him the Monday after week 1 last year (with Melvin Gordon) for DJM and Miles Sanders.
:clap: :dance:
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:10 pm

Bump time. He's nearing a potential return. What's our thoughts on how he'll produce?
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:48 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:10 pm Bump time. He's nearing a potential return. What's our thoughts on how he'll produce?
No one knows.

If Brees was still there then you can feel pretty good about it. But with the current offense, currently they average 24 pass attempts a game vs 33 last year and 36 in 2019, best you can really hope for is ~75% of what he use to get. More likely closer to 60%.

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby gogobradyarm » Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:01 pm

Oddball456 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:48 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:10 pm Bump time. He's nearing a potential return. What's our thoughts on how he'll produce?
No one knows.

If Brees was still there then you can feel pretty good about it. But with the current offense, currently they average 24 pass attempts a game vs 33 last year and 36 in 2019, best you can really hope for is ~75% of what he use to get. More likely closer to 60%.
I don’t buy this. Offense is schemed to their talent, and once MT is back they’ll throw more. He’ll get 20-30% of targets and be no worse than 75% of what he was. At best, I think he will be 90% of what he was.
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:23 pm

The earliest he could have returned from PUP was Week 7 - which obviously did not occur. Earliest projections now seem to be Week 9 or 10.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:02 am

MFundercover wrote: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:17 am 2 years ago a team in my league traded Russ, Diggs, and a 1st for MT. He had Lamar going in his MVP year and Thomas made him unstoppable on the way to the title.

Crazy how much different that trade looks now than it did when it was made.
Another example of why trades shouldn't be vetoed.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:08 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:01 pm
Oddball456 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:48 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:10 pm Bump time. He's nearing a potential return. What's our thoughts on how he'll produce?
No one knows.

If Brees was still there then you can feel pretty good about it. But with the current offense, currently they average 24 pass attempts a game vs 33 last year and 36 in 2019, best you can really hope for is ~75% of what he use to get. More likely closer to 60%.
I don’t buy this. Offense is schemed to their talent, and once MT is back they’ll throw more. He’ll get 20-30% of targets and be no worse than 75% of what he was. At best, I think he will be 90% of what he was.
His floor is lower than this. It just is. A 75% of max past production floor is very optimistic. He could be every bit as good as always, but there is also a very real, a non-zero chance he's far less than 75%.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby MontrealBen » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:30 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:08 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:01 pm
I don’t buy this. Offense is schemed to their talent, and once MT is back they’ll throw more. He’ll get 20-30% of targets and be no worse than 75% of what he was. At best, I think he will be 90% of what he was.
His floor is lower than this. It just is. A 75% of max past production floor is very optimistic. He could be every bit as good as always, but there is also a very real, a non-zero chance he's far less than 75%.
I just traded for him, and I'm hopeful, but this is the correct take. The ceiling is the same, but with Winston (or Hill eventually?) the floor has to be lowered. To me, the median outcome is that he gets consistent targets, but QB inaccuracy and game script makes him an unpredictable boom/bust play.

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:17 am

Even with a decline, Thomas could still be in the mix for WR1 production.

We're not talking about someone who was just good or pretty good through his first four seasons. Thomas was historically elite.

To me the most realistic outcomes are:

A. He's 75-85% of his peak production. So, maybe something around his rookie season production.
B. He has something around an Odell Beckham type of decline, which is not good.

Slight chance that he bounces back into peak production like nothing happened.

Things that are encouraging:

- Winston is at QB and he can produce with really good WRs (Evans, Godwin).
- Winston will feed WRs unconditionally if he trusts them.
- There are no receivers in New Orleans who threaten a return to role or volume

I'm biased, but Thomas is a good buy to me. I just trust the talent and skill too much, even though I know the conditioning will be off.

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:24 am

He has to get back on the field for any production to happen.

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:08 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:17 am Even with a decline, Thomas could still be in the mix for WR1 production.

We're not talking about someone who was just good or pretty good through his first four seasons. Thomas was historically elite.

To me the most realistic outcomes are:

A. He's 75-85% of his peak production. So, maybe something around his rookie season production.
B. He has something around an Odell Beckham type of decline, which is not good.

Slight chance that he bounces back into peak production like nothing happened.

Things that are encouraging:

- Winston is at QB and he can produce with really good WRs (Evans, Godwin).
- Winston will feed WRs unconditionally if he trusts them.
- There are no receivers in New Orleans who threaten a return to role or volume

I'm biased, but Thomas is a good buy to me. I just trust the talent and skill too much, even though I know the conditioning will be off.
I'm of the same opinion and tried to trade for him myself, just was simply stating the floor is far less rosy than 75% production.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Michael Thomas: Arguably the #1 Dynasty Asset?

Postby Ice » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:14 am

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:24 am He has to get back on the field for any production to happen.
Agree; Still glad I don't any shares of this guy especially with a Saints logo on his helmet.
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