Over / Under - Josh Gordon

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Will Josh Gordon have more than 500 receiving yards as a Patriot?

Over 500 yards
34
41%
Under 500 yards
48
59%
 
Total votes: 82

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thebeast
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Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby thebeast » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:18 am

While there are plenty of posts on what he’s worth, what he can be sold for, I’m curious as to what the community think about Gordon’s actual contribution will be.
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby Life of Pablo » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:39 am

Here's a relevant article which I find interesting. I'm sure you can find more Josh Gordon prop bets elsewhere on the internet too. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/josh- ... suspension

Taken from there...
BetOnline is offering either side an opportunity to make money off its opinions.

Will Josh Gordon be suspended during the 2018 regular season?
Yes: +350
No: -600

How many games will Josh Gordon play for the Patriots in 2018?
Over 9.5: +175
Under 9.5: -250

The second prop is the more interesting one if you ask me, particularly because of where the total is set. As Schefter’s tweet explains, if Gordon is active for fewer than 10 games this season, the Patriots will receive a late-round pick from the Browns — a pick that was later confirmed to be a seventh rounder.

Clearly, oddsmakers don’t think it’s likely that Gordon will hit that 10-game threshold. The -250 line on the under implies that oddsmakers see a 71.4% chance that Gordon plays nine or fewer games for the Pats this year.
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby Life of Pablo » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:49 am

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/josh ... rely-good/
As for Gordon's personal numbers, expectations are still high for the troubled wideout over the season's remaining 14 games. Gordon's touchdown over/under is 7.5, while his over/under for receiving yards is 875.5, according to BetDSI Sportsbook. That's a lot to expect for a guy who has missed 41 of a possible 98 games since entering the league in 2012 . It's the equivalent of a 50/50 -- he'll either boom or bust in New England. He's being given a cushion for his first week against the Lions when he'll undoubtedly be learning a Patriots offense that's very difficult to grasp, however. His line is at 4.5 catches and 55.5 yards.
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/D + 1 IR spot)
1 QB | 2 RB | 2 WR | 1 TE | 1 FLEX | 1 K | 1 D
11-2, 1st (AP: 80-37 / 68.4%, 2nd)
Wk 14 QF - BYE ||| Wk 15 SF - W ||| Wk 16 CP - L

QB: Russ, Wentz
RB: Chubb, Gurley, Bell, DJ, Breida, Boone, AP
WR: Nuk, Evans, Keenan, Diggs, AJG, Hollywood, Preston, Ross
TE: Kelce, Fant
K: Myers
D: Patriots
2020 Picks: 1.09, 1.10, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby thebeast » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:03 pm

Life of Pablo wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:49 am
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/josh ... rely-good/
As for Gordon's personal numbers, expectations are still high for the troubled wideout over the season's remaining 14 games. Gordon's touchdown over/under is 7.5, while his over/under for receiving yards is 875.5, according to BetDSI Sportsbook. That's a lot to expect for a guy who has missed 41 of a possible 98 games since entering the league in 2012 . It's the equivalent of a 50/50 -- he'll either boom or bust in New England. He's being given a cushion for his first week against the Lions when he'll undoubtedly be learning a Patriots offense that's very difficult to grasp, however. His line is at 4.5 catches and 55.5 yards.
Thanks for that, if we had the opportunity for a multi poll I would have added games played. I'm going to look into betting the under on the yards, that is a lot.
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby Orenthal Shames » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:38 pm

Pffft. You forgot the 2 in front of that 500 brah
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby Phaded » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:40 pm

I put over - but not by much.
I could see 500-600 yards; the Pats have gotten better production under similar scrubs.

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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby thebeast » Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:55 pm

Wow, pretty split community. I'm pretty surprised by the results so far - there are a lot of people who think Gordon will have some meaningful snaps with the Pats.

Over -13
Under - 14
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby DLF3000 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:03 pm

thebeast wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:55 pm
Wow, pretty split community. I'm pretty surprised by the results so far - there are a lot of people who think Gordon will have some meaningful snaps with the Pats.

Over -13
Under - 14
Meaningful contribution to help the Pats win a few games? Sure.

Meaningful contribution to be a fantasy starter? :sick:
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby kris_kapsner » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:00 am

I voted the over. But that's because I am guessing 550-700 yards from him this season. I think he could hit 8 TD's though. So, I do think he'll have fantasy relevance. But, he needs an off season to absorb the Pats playbook and get in sync with Brady to reach his potential. That could happen next year if the Pats keep him on board. Or, he could go somewhere else. It's so hard to say right now.
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby notweswelker » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:12 pm

I think he'll be less valuable than Dorsett ROS.

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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:26 pm

Odds makers are pretty smart, so if they have his odds at 875, then I'll take the over on 500 yards pretty easily.
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby thebeast » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:35 pm

MEuRaH wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:26 pm
Odds makers are pretty smart, so if they have his odds at 875, then I'll take the over on 500 yards pretty easily.
What do you think they would be basing their odds on? I don’t think they are very smart on this one, I think they’re throwing a dart like everyone else.
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby ImaRounder » Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:24 pm

thebeast wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:35 pm
MEuRaH wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:26 pm
Odds makers are pretty smart, so if they have his odds at 875, then I'll take the over on 500 yards pretty easily.
What do you think they would be basing their odds on? I don’t think they are very smart on this one, I think they’re throwing a dart like everyone else.
Basing it on the money these guys bring in every single year. Its foolish to think they're not smart on any line they put out.

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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby thebeast » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:02 am

ImaRounder wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:24 pm
thebeast wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:35 pm
MEuRaH wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:26 pm
Odds makers are pretty smart, so if they have his odds at 875, then I'll take the over on 500 yards pretty easily.
What do you think they would be basing their odds on? I don’t think they are very smart on this one, I think they’re throwing a dart like everyone else.
Basing it on the money these guys bring in every single year. Its foolish to think they're not smart on any line they put out.
So you think think they have a better way of predicting if Gordon will relapse? Or if Belichrck will cut him after a few weeks if he doesn’t like the effort?
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Re: Over / Under - Josh Gordon

Postby perkinsrooster » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:39 am

Under because he will not stick on the roster.


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