David Johnson - Code Red Panic? - Traded to Houston

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notweswelker
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Re: David Johnson

Postby notweswelker » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:38 pm

Space Cowboy wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:12 am Did you see him run that crisp route and explode past the helpless LB? The talent is there, the coaching and the QB play has been downright awful.
The way to win in the NFL is to give your best player the ball as little as possible and in the worst situations.

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Re: David Johnson

Postby ArrylT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:59 pm

If you have not already - you may want to consider trying to buy low on DJ if you can. I would not be surprised if the window closed though.

So far - despite what looks to be sub-optimal usage over 5 games DJ is still an RB1 in PPR (#10 or #11 I believe). His ppg pace is approx 260 for a full season - which was good enough for RB5-7 range over the past 3 years.

And thats at current usage - not if they somehow figure out how to increase his usage.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: David Johnson

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:32 pm

ArrylT wrote: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:59 pm If you have not already - you may want to consider trying to buy low on DJ if you can. I would not be surprised if the window closed though.

So far - despite what looks to be sub-optimal usage over 5 games DJ is still an RB1 in PPR (#10 or #11 I believe). His ppg pace is approx 260 for a full season - which was good enough for RB5-7 range over the past 3 years.

And thats at current usage - not if they somehow figure out how to increase his usage.
As a DJ owner I never stopped considering him a top 5 RB. That certainly hasn't changed. I dont think there us many guys looking to sell
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Darnold(NYJ)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI DAL
[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
7th pick in 2021

Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted

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Re: David Johnson

Postby kris_kapsner » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:01 am

I'd recommend selling David Johnson.

This is not because I don't think he's a top 5 RB talent in the NFL right now. But, there are many reasons to look at selling him.

Years ago owners would wait to sell off elite RB's until they were about 29-30 years old...and people would pay elite prices for the studs. That has slowly changed over the years. And getting elite value for RB's has slowly gone down in age...to 28...to 27...and I would argue that many owners are reluctant to pay top 5 RB value for a 27 year old. So the age to maximize value is now 26. Most owners are not hesitant to pay top value for a 26 year old elite RB because they view that player as having 3 elite seasons still in their 20's. For David Johnson, that window is now. (and for Bell owners)

So, owners are at a crossroads right now. DJ owners should decide if they want to "sell high" on him or hold him for the next 3-4 years and use his production.

That leads us to the next question. Will his production improve? I think it will. The OC can't stay stupid forever...or can he? Where is this offense going in the future? Well, teams can turn around in a hurry sometimes. They have a young rookie QB whom I really like. But, Fitz is injured and probably done after this season...unfortunately. Then who do they have? Some nice players but no stars to take pressure off DJ. Defenses key on the best players and without another weapon on the team to force them to stay honest, DJ will have smaller gaps to run through...which is what he's running into now. Look at his average right now. He's averaging 3.27 yards per carry. That's not his fault. It's the play calling, which may change soon, but doubtful. It's the o-line, which won't change any time soon. It's the lack of offensive weapons, which won't change any time soon, even if the Cards draft a play maker...because it'll take a year or three for an elite WR prospect to develop into a threat enough to take pressure off DJ. Then he's 28-29 years old.

If he maintains his pace this year with TD production that compensates for his lack of yardage and receptions, then he'll maintain his spot he has right now as a low end RB1. But, with all of the young RB talent that has been infused into the mix with this rookie class and last years rookie class, a 27 year old low end RB1 won't hold nearly the value DJ has right now.

So, bottom line: You either sell right now and get elite top 5 value or you are holding DJ for years.

I sold my share of DJ (for Mixon, Fuller and Stills to get younger at RB and younger at WR).

The choice is yours though. I can't fault anyone for riding with DJ. He'll maintain his place as a strong fantasy asset. He just won't hold his trade value like he has right now.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings

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Re: David Johnson

Postby Unicorn92 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:34 am

kris_kapsner wrote: Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:01 am I'd recommend selling David Johnson.

This is not because I don't think he's a top 5 RB talent in the NFL right now. But, there are many reasons to look at selling him.

Years ago owners would wait to sell off elite RB's until they were about 29-30 years old...and people would pay elite prices for the studs. That has slowly changed over the years. And getting elite value for RB's has slowly gone down in age...to 28...to 27...and I would argue that many owners are reluctant to pay top 5 RB value for a 27 year old. So the age to maximize value is now 26. Most owners are not hesitant to pay top value for a 26 year old elite RB because they view that player as having 3 elite seasons still in their 20's. For David Johnson, that window is now. (and for Bell owners)

So, owners are at a crossroads right now. DJ owners should decide if they want to "sell high" on him or hold him for the next 3-4 years and use his production.

That leads us to the next question. Will his production improve? I think it will. The OC can't stay stupid forever...or can he? Where is this offense going in the future? Well, teams can turn around in a hurry sometimes. They have a young rookie QB whom I really like. But, Fitz is injured and probably done after this season...unfortunately. Then who do they have? Some nice players but no stars to take pressure off DJ. Defenses key on the best players and without another weapon on the team to force them to stay honest, DJ will have smaller gaps to run through...which is what he's running into now. Look at his average right now. He's averaging 3.27 yards per carry. That's not his fault. It's the play calling, which may change soon, but doubtful. It's the o-line, which won't change any time soon. It's the lack of offensive weapons, which won't change any time soon, even if the Cards draft a play maker...because it'll take a year or three for an elite WR prospect to develop into a threat enough to take pressure off DJ. Then he's 28-29 years old.

If he maintains his pace this year with TD production that compensates for his lack of yardage and receptions, then he'll maintain his spot he has right now as a low end RB1. But, with all of the young RB talent that has been infused into the mix with this rookie class and last years rookie class, a 27 year old low end RB1 won't hold nearly the value DJ has right now.

So, bottom line: You either sell right now and get elite top 5 value or you are holding DJ for years.

I sold my share of DJ (for Mixon, Fuller and Stills to get younger at RB and younger at WR).

The choice is yours though. I can't fault anyone for riding with DJ. He'll maintain his place as a strong fantasy asset. He just won't hold his trade value like he has right now.

I guess you forgot Christian Kirk who seems to emerge with the Cardinals. That said I have Dj and I am a big fan and have no plan to trade him. I think he car rebound particulary if Rosen and Kirk do good.
I play in an idp dynasty keeper league 10 teams with 1 qb start in a ppr league 2 en 2 wr 1te 1 flex. This is a roster of 35 players and a ts of 5 players in mfl and this is a ppr league

Roster

QB: D. Jones, B. Mayfield
RB: S.Barkley, M.Breida, T. Cohen D.Johnson, J. Williams, B. Scarborough
WR: B.Cooks, C.Goodwin, K. Allen, T.Lockett, C. Kirk, M. Williams, D. Westbrook, A. Miller
TE: C. Herndon, R. Griffin, I. Thomas
K C.Boswell
DL M. Davenport, F. Clark, S. Hubbard,
LB M. D. Jones, L. Vander Esch, R. Evans, M. Milano, H. Landry, J. Baker
DB: B.Baker, J. Bates, J. Peppers

Practice squad: P. Williams, T. Rapp, C. Ferrell, E. Oliver, B. Cashman

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Re: David Johnson

Postby ArrylT » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:33 am

MrUbuto wrote: Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:32 pm
ArrylT wrote: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:59 pm If you have not already - you may want to consider trying to buy low on DJ if you can. I would not be surprised if the window closed though.

So far - despite what looks to be sub-optimal usage over 5 games DJ is still an RB1 in PPR (#10 or #11 I believe). His ppg pace is approx 260 for a full season - which was good enough for RB5-7 range over the past 3 years.

And thats at current usage - not if they somehow figure out how to increase his usage.
As a DJ owner I never stopped considering him a top 5 RB. That certainly hasn't changed. I dont think there us many guys looking to sell
Yeah this is going to be one of those things that are league specific - I got a DJ offer from an owner that I thought was quite fair based on where DJ was worth - but as my team was entering a rebuild (and I am 1-4) it did not make sense for my team.

If you own DJ and do not get, what you feel is fair market value, then obviously you keep holding - it is not like he is Adrian Peterson or even LeSean McCoy - like another owner mentioned he is young enough that there is still a nice window where he can be expected to put up RB1 production long-term.

But if you want to buy DJ and the owner is mired at 0-5 / 1-4 or maybe 2-3 you can see if you can get a 5-10% discount rather than having to pay a premium (like you would with a Gurley or Elliott).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: David Johnson

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:00 am

Honestly, you're better off riding out the career of an elite RB than not. Imagine trading David Johnson for Dalvin Cook or Jordan Howard in the offseason to get younger at RB and have sexier trade value. Sure, if you could get Barkley, Gurley, or something it makes sense, but otherwise just milk every ounce of RB1 production you can out of it.

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Re: David Johnson

Postby notweswelker » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:58 am

In my league in sig I've got an offer of a 1st, 2 2nds, and Jared Cook.

I'm leaning towards no, but I've definitely considered it.

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Re: David Johnson

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 am

0LDMAN wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:58 am In my league in sig I've got an offer of a 1st, 2 2nds, and Jared Cook.

I'm leaning towards no, but I've definitely considered it.
Jesus man, step back from the ledge!

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Re: David Johnson

Postby maxhyde » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:08 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:00 am Honestly, you're better off riding out the career of an elite RB than not. Imagine trading David Johnson for Dalvin Cook or Jordan Howard in the offseason to get younger at RB and have sexier trade value. Sure, if you could get Barkley, Gurley, or something it makes sense, but otherwise just milk every ounce of RB1 production you can out of it.
Exactly this
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: David Johnson

Postby akbfrosty » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:23 pm

maxhyde wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:08 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:00 am Honestly, you're better off riding out the career of an elite RB than not. Imagine trading David Johnson for Dalvin Cook or Jordan Howard in the offseason to get younger at RB and have sexier trade value. Sure, if you could get Barkley, Gurley, or something it makes sense, but otherwise just milk every ounce of RB1 production you can out of it.
Exactly this
What? Did these trades actually happen? This doesn't even make a ton of sense when DJ was valued higher than both by nearly everyone. I just looked quick at Mizelle's ADP in August and DJ was never not drafted 1st out of these guys. The idea that Howard was "sexier" trade value-wise...just not something I personally came across in the off-season.

I think I understand what you're saying, but the better example of chasing "sexy" value comparable to DJ's value in the offseason would've been trading him for Saquon.

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Re: David Johnson

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:41 pm

akbfrosty wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:23 pm What? Did these trades actually happen? This doesn't even make a ton of sense when DJ was valued higher than both by nearly everyone. I just looked quick at Mizelle's ADP in August and DJ was never not drafted 1st out of these guys. The idea that Howard was "sexier" trade value-wise...just not something I personally came across in the off-season.

I think I understand what you're saying, but the better example of chasing "sexy" value comparable to DJ's value in the offseason would've been trading him for Saquon.
But, nobody is trading Saquon for Johnson straight up. You'd have to add to Johnson, especially right now. I don't think it'd be worth it.

This is the dilemma you go through with a 26-27 year-old RB with a history of stud production. You lose trade value because everyone wants the younger, fresher RB. So, you get to a point where his production is worth more than what you'd get in return.

if you're trying to win you're better off just riding it out.

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Re: David Johnson

Postby notweswelker » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:50 pm

JoshGordonsDealer wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 am
0LDMAN wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:58 am In my league in sig I've got an offer of a 1st, 2 2nds, and Jared Cook.

I'm leaning towards no, but I've definitely considered it.
Jesus man, step back from the ledge!
Like I said I was leaning towards no, but this is a dangerous line to walk. I love DJ but he is one unlucky tackle from losing all value entirely. It doesn't seem like the Cardinals are even aware of their misuse of him, which is probably the most concerning fact in this whole scenario. At this point I am just hoping those crazy Eagles trade rumors come true....
It looks apparent that Mccoy either
A) is literally retarded
or
B) has a personal vendetta against DJ

We are 5 games into 2018 and his usage has been so ridiculously bad it's borderline unbelievable. But as I said, the more concerning fact is that no one in Arizona seems to be aware or care. Nothing from the GM, from the head coach, nor from the OC dumbass himself, indicates they think anything is amiss here.

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Re: David Johnson

Postby sct » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:05 am

I hear you. I kind of saw this coming with the change of regime and then it was confirmed week 1 and I abandoned ship. He’s scored better than I thought he would but I have no regrets.
12 team no limit keeper PPR
4patd, 6ruretd, 1/25 payd, 1/10 ruyd, 1ppr Start 1QB, 2RB,2WR,1Flex, 1TE,1k, 2idp
QB: Jackson, Cousins
RB: Fournette, AJones, Montgomery, Henderson, JWilson, Ingram, BScott, Vaughn, Benjamin
WR: Kupp, adams, DJMoore, Lazard, Campbell, Osborn
TE: Schultz, Knox

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Re: David Johnson

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:29 am

0LDMAN wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:50 pm
JoshGordonsDealer wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 am
0LDMAN wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:58 am In my league in sig I've got an offer of a 1st, 2 2nds, and Jared Cook.

I'm leaning towards no, but I've definitely considered it.
Jesus man, step back from the ledge!
Like I said I was leaning towards no, but this is a dangerous line to walk. I love DJ but he is one unlucky tackle from losing all value entirely. It doesn't seem like the Cardinals are even aware of their misuse of him, which is probably the most concerning fact in this whole scenario. At this point I am just hoping those crazy Eagles trade rumors come true....
It looks apparent that Mccoy either
A) is literally retarded
or
B) has a personal vendetta against DJ

We are 5 games into 2018 and his usage has been so ridiculously bad it's borderline unbelievable. But as I said, the more concerning fact is that no one in Arizona seems to be aware or care. Nothing from the GM, from the head coach, nor from the OC dumbass himself, indicates they think anything is amiss here.
1. It's dynasty. I don't think it'll look nearly this bad next season.
2. Rookie QB, see point 1
3. Every football player is one unlucky tackle away from losing all value.
4. Even with garbage usage, he's a RB1. Cook is having his best season yet, but he's not special. The even if it's a high 1st, the 2nds are just lotto picks.


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