Postby kris_kapsner » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:01 am
I'd recommend selling David Johnson.
This is not because I don't think he's a top 5 RB talent in the NFL right now. But, there are many reasons to look at selling him.
Years ago owners would wait to sell off elite RB's until they were about 29-30 years old...and people would pay elite prices for the studs. That has slowly changed over the years. And getting elite value for RB's has slowly gone down in age...to 28...to 27...and I would argue that many owners are reluctant to pay top 5 RB value for a 27 year old. So the age to maximize value is now 26. Most owners are not hesitant to pay top value for a 26 year old elite RB because they view that player as having 3 elite seasons still in their 20's. For David Johnson, that window is now. (and for Bell owners)
So, owners are at a crossroads right now. DJ owners should decide if they want to "sell high" on him or hold him for the next 3-4 years and use his production.
That leads us to the next question. Will his production improve? I think it will. The OC can't stay stupid forever...or can he? Where is this offense going in the future? Well, teams can turn around in a hurry sometimes. They have a young rookie QB whom I really like. But, Fitz is injured and probably done after this season...unfortunately. Then who do they have? Some nice players but no stars to take pressure off DJ. Defenses key on the best players and without another weapon on the team to force them to stay honest, DJ will have smaller gaps to run through...which is what he's running into now. Look at his average right now. He's averaging 3.27 yards per carry. That's not his fault. It's the play calling, which may change soon, but doubtful. It's the o-line, which won't change any time soon. It's the lack of offensive weapons, which won't change any time soon, even if the Cards draft a play maker...because it'll take a year or three for an elite WR prospect to develop into a threat enough to take pressure off DJ. Then he's 28-29 years old.
If he maintains his pace this year with TD production that compensates for his lack of yardage and receptions, then he'll maintain his spot he has right now as a low end RB1. But, with all of the young RB talent that has been infused into the mix with this rookie class and last years rookie class, a 27 year old low end RB1 won't hold nearly the value DJ has right now.
So, bottom line: You either sell right now and get elite top 5 value or you are holding DJ for years.
I sold my share of DJ (for Mixon, Fuller and Stills to get younger at RB and younger at WR).
The choice is yours though. I can't fault anyone for riding with DJ. He'll maintain his place as a strong fantasy asset. He just won't hold his trade value like he has right now.
16 team PPR Est. 2002 (Champion: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016)
Start: QB, 2-4WR, 2-3RB, 1-2TE, K, D
QB: Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, G. Bernard
WR: Adams, Metcalf, Callaway, Shepard, Watkins, Fuller, T. Williams, Proche
TE: Kelce, Pitts, Njoku, Seals-Jones
K: Gay
D: Vikings