Nick Chubb Thread: Chubb = Stud

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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:25 pm

Bot101 wrote: Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:16 pm I love Chubb. But I cant figure him out. When I watched him (post injury) he looked... slower. Another thing I picked up is he really is protective of his previously injured knee. And something else when watching him run, when he looks about to break a big run he will get tackled easier than expected. He was my 1.02 for a short while post combine. But after reading some stuff on how he looked "ok but not natural" catching passes he fell to 1.04. He also has poor 10 yard splits vs Guice (1.02) and Penny (1.03) that a prominent RB guy on these forums pointed out to me. However he did look better and better the further away from his injury he got. I would just rather take the safe options of Guice or Penny over Chubb. My fear is that he may never be the same no matter how hard he destroys the gym.
Fair analysis. Looks like we have the same top 4, just in slightly different orders. I think he did lose a bit in his change of direction with his knee, coming out of breaks, but another thing to consider is that Chubb may have bulked up from 2 years ago. It's quite possible he was 10 pounds heavier than the pre injury form. He certainly looks thicker than he did in his Freshman year, I assume he's put on some weight, which might have contributed to looking/being slower.

Once thing I have realized watching film over the last little while, is watching the yardage move rather than the player. By that I mean, when I watched Chubb vs Michel, they are such different body types, and run with different body movements, that there can be optical illusions, like someones dreadlocks for instance. I try and watch how quickly the player moves against the yardage markers, keeping the players movements out of my main focus when trying to analyze film speed.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby ninotoreS » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:35 pm

Studied Chubb a lot. Eventually had to bump him down to 1.6/7 on my board mainly because of two issues. First, the one everyone knows about: Duke Johnson a Brown for possibly the next four seasons, basically capping Chubb's statistical ceiling in an offense that appears set to throw a lot when Baker Mayfield takes over. Second, a more subtle issue: too many times to be dismissed, I saw Chubb pulled down from behind by pursuit at the first level when trying to get around the edge or when about to hit the off-tackle hole. This was on his '17 tape. An RB with truly exceptional quickness/burst and hip mobility doesn't have that happen to him in college.

With that out of the way...

Chubb's '14 and early '15 form would have made him this rookie-draft's 1.1, ahead of even Barkley. At least on my board. The best thing I can say about Chubb now is that he is a very mature runner. Polished. Experienced and comfortable with most run read concepts. Most collegiate RBs aren't. Matt Waldman controversially has Chubb as the #1 RB from this class, mostly for this reason.

Nick Chubb is probably statistically capped in Cleveland, especially in '18, but there's a solid argument that he's the safest dynasty RB prospect in this class after Barkley.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Ice » Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:56 am

I have Chubb and a few other RB's going early rated towards the back 3rd of round 1 so those drafting him in the top 5 is a slight reach in my book. Chubb was a huge name in college football pre injury and while he has returned to form others have past him by. I don't believe he was even the best back on his own team and neither did the Patriots due to overall versatility

Chubb, IMO is clearly going to be the best 2 down back in Cleveland. Love his pad level. He could be a significant force for the Browns in this area. The reason I rate him lower than a few WR's and other backs has to due with his limitations. His speed is more building than initial quickness. The good news for the Browns though is he does have quick feet which is critical when the Browns play power blocking schemes when they need short yards. Chubb's vision is not elite so he may be better overall running out of their Zone Blocking schemes. The Browns will be pretty diverse and complex in thier O-Line splitting blocking scheme assignments almost equally including out of the shotgun. Chubb's real challenge will be picking up line complexity and selecting the correct gap. Once he grasps this he will become a legit starter and pass Hyde.

Contrary to many I suspect, the Browns didn't go after Barkley because they had D. Johnson who is elite already in the 3rd down back department They needed power to go with his Johnson's versatility.

I do think Chubb will be a solid RB in the NFL but he is not multi dimensional by today's NFL standards which is why players like Penny and his teammate Michael went before him.

He is a high floor selection so a safe pick. If he can have a career like a J. Lewis type then his owners should be real happy.

In today's fantasy world he may need close to 35 effective receptions annually to be elite and I just don't see it. If I had to guess his comparable value in the NFL it will track similarly to Derrick Henry.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Bot101 » Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:24 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:25 pm
Bot101 wrote: Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:16 pm I love Chubb. But I cant figure him out. When I watched him (post injury) he looked... slower. Another thing I picked up is he really is protective of his previously injured knee. And something else when watching him run, when he looks about to break a big run he will get tackled easier than expected. He was my 1.02 for a short while post combine. But after reading some stuff on how he looked "ok but not natural" catching passes he fell to 1.04. He also has poor 10 yard splits vs Guice (1.02) and Penny (1.03) that a prominent RB guy on these forums pointed out to me. However he did look better and better the further away from his injury he got. I would just rather take the safe options of Guice or Penny over Chubb. My fear is that he may never be the same no matter how hard he destroys the gym.
Fair analysis. Looks like we have the same top 4, just in slightly different orders. I think he did lose a bit in his change of direction with his knee, coming out of breaks, but another thing to consider is that Chubb may have bulked up from 2 years ago. It's quite possible he was 10 pounds heavier than the pre injury form. He certainly looks thicker than he did in his Freshman year, I assume he's put on some weight, which might have contributed to looking/being slower.

Once thing I have realized watching film over the last little while, is watching the yardage move rather than the player. By that I mean, when I watched Chubb vs Michel, they are such different body types, and run with different body movements, that there can be optical illusions, like someones dreadlocks for instance. I try and watch how quickly the player moves against the yardage markers, keeping the players movements out of my main focus when trying to analyze film speed.
Yeah his change of direction pre and post injury are very noticeable. Post injury he has to slow down much more which allows defenders to close on him. And the illusion of him running faster or slower than you'd think are why I mentioned his 10 yard splits. He takes awhile to get up to full speed now. Watching him run the 40 at the combine, he looks like hes giving everything he has. Wheras any of the other RBs also giving great effort, look more controlled.

The thing I love most about Chubb is his vision. Its better than anyone elses in this class. I truly hope he can fully recover because he will be special as a 2 down back.

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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:04 am

ninotoreS wrote: Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:35 pm Studied Chubb a lot. Eventually had to bump him down to 1.6/7 on my board mainly because of two issues. First, the one everyone knows about: Duke Johnson a Brown for possibly the next four seasons, basically capping Chubb's statistical ceiling in an offense that appears set to throw a lot when Baker Mayfield takes over. Second, a more subtle issue: too many times to be dismissed, I saw Chubb pulled down from behind by pursuit at the first level when trying to get around the edge or when about to hit the off-tackle hole. This was on his '17 tape. An RB with truly exceptional quickness/burst and hip mobility doesn't have that happen to him in college.

With that out of the way...

Chubb's '14 and early '15 form would have made him this rookie-draft's 1.1, ahead of even Barkley. At least on my board. The best thing I can say about Chubb now is that he is a very mature runner. Polished. Experienced and comfortable with most run read concepts. Most collegiate RBs aren't. Matt Waldman controversially has Chubb as the #1 RB from this class, mostly for this reason.

Nick Chubb is probably statistically capped in Cleveland, especially in '18, but there's a solid argument that he's the safest dynasty RB prospect in this class after Barkley.
Excellent post. My thoughts almost exactly.
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BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
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HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Phaded » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:13 am

Chubb just went 1.11 in my Superflex league (I passed on him at 1.09 to grab RJ2, consensus will think it was a bad move but I do not care).

With Chubb - people are either one side or the other, there does not seem to be much in between. I am clearly on the side that believes he is being overvalued. Others hold on to how he was pre-injury or how he "surprised" at the combine. Not to say they are wrong, but personally I am not buying the hype. I watch the tape and walk away saying "he looks okay". I am also very cautious of those who rise due to combine performance.

It will be interesting to see how it shakes out nonetheless.

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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby AZK » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:48 am

Chubb didn't really rise due to combine performance though. He's been a devy favorite since his freshman year and there were thoughts that he was better then Gurley when they were teammates. I think he is being adequately valued in the middle of rookie drafts at the moment even though I prefer him over a few of those tier 2 rbs.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby spotxc » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:03 pm

Hes one of those guys I don't want to be wrong on if I passed due to his superb potential and resume..Id regret it for a long, long time. Call me a buyer cause Im more believer than non believer

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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Defender » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:52 am

I really don’t understand why the consensus is that Duke Johnson is guaranteed all third down work.

Duke’s new contract has him set to make $4.075M per year. This most closely resembles four players:
Latavius Murray
James White
Mark Ingram
Isaiah Crowell
https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/
(Of the four, Ingram is the obvious outlier due to his breakout year, though some ding him heavily for the suspension and projected diminished role in the offense.) Look at Murray: when MIN saw something they really liked with Cook, Murray was quickly relegated. Look at White: I don’t see any forum threads worrying about Michel missing out on touches. Yet he plays in the most unpredictable backfield in the NFL. And if you want to look at Crowell too, he’s a plodder who will not see third down work and could very well lose additional snaps due to poor production.

Yes, Duke is a great receiving back. And that makes CLE all the smarter for locking him up on little more than chump change. But NFL teams prefer the versatility of a 3-down back. As soon as CLE see Chubb has the ability to be serviceable or better in receiving/pass pro, watch out. You will see Chubb for what he truly is: a stud.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby btv802 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:14 am

Defender wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:52 am I really don’t understand why the consensus is that Duke Johnson is guaranteed all third down work.
Because he's proven to be one of the best pass catching backs in the league along with Chris Thompson in Washington. These guys are elite at what they do. As long as they are around they cap the touches for the other backs in their team's respective backfield.

Game flow will be a big determining factor for these backfields as well though. Duke was ultra productive last year because Cleveland sucked and he was out on the field while they were playing from behind. If Cleveland and/or Washington can regularly play with the lead they are going to be pounding the rock with their battering rams.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby BigBawseRoss » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:26 am

his college production and combine were outta this world. pre injury he was barkley before barkley was a thing. His unreal combine put him back in that barkley range for me and firmly at 1.02. early 2nd round pick made it even more solidified. Just gotta know hes an unreal talent and not worry too much about hyde/duke/browns effect.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Ice » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:51 am

btv802 wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:14 am
Defender wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:52 am I really don’t understand why the consensus is that Duke Johnson is guaranteed all third down work.
Because he's proven to be one of the best pass catching backs in the league along with Chris Thompson in Washington. These guys are elite at what they do. As long as they are around they cap the touches for the other backs in their team's respective backfield.

Game flow will be a big determining factor for these backfields as well though. Duke was ultra productive last year because Cleveland sucked and he was out on the field while they were playing from behind. If Cleveland and/or Washington can regularly play with the lead they are going to be pounding the rock with their battering rams.
Agree: By any measure Johnson is an elite pass catching back at this level.

Johnson in 2017 compared to all NFL RB's.
Targets 93 ( Rank 4th )
Receptions 74 (Rank 4th)
Yards 693 ( Rank 3rd)

In 3 years, 188 receptions for 1741 yards or 9.3 yards per reception. #1 all time first 3 years in the league.

Interesting fact I just read, Herschel Walker and Johnson are the only RB's in history with 500 plus receiving yards in their first 3 years in the league.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Defender » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:19 am

Ice wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:51 am
btv802 wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:14 am
Defender wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:52 am I really don’t understand why the consensus is that Duke Johnson is guaranteed all third down work.
Because he's proven to be one of the best pass catching backs in the league along with Chris Thompson in Washington. These guys are elite at what they do. As long as they are around they cap the touches for the other backs in their team's respective backfield.

Game flow will be a big determining factor for these backfields as well though. Duke was ultra productive last year because Cleveland sucked and he was out on the field while they were playing from behind. If Cleveland and/or Washington can regularly play with the lead they are going to be pounding the rock with their battering rams.
Agree: By any measure Johnson is an elite pass catching back at this level.

Johnson in 2017 compared to all NFL RB's.
Targets 93 ( Rank 4th )
Receptions 74 (Rank 4th)
Yards 693 ( Rank 3rd)

In 3 years, 188 receptions for 1741 yards or 9.3 yards per reception. #1 all time first 3 years in the league.

Interesting fact I just read, Herschel Walker and Johnson are the only RB's in history with 500 plus receiving yards in their first 3 years in the league.
The number of targets and receptions he has had tell me nothing about how elite of a receiver he is. What they do tell he is that 1. His team played from behind a lot, and 2. He was the only half decent pass catching back. A quick look at the available evidence confirms these two points. Which brings me back to my initial conjecture: Duke Johnson is not elite. He has been very good, especially when compared to the rest of the team. But he is not good enough to keep Chubb off the field.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Phaded » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:25 am

I think the real question is - is Chubb good enough to stay on the field?
If you think it is an "obvious yes" then you need to re-evaluate.
Chubb does not currently fit the three-down workhorse mold that is less and less common in today's NFL.

The only rookie RB this year that is clearly the best fantasy running back on their roster is Barkley. Everyone else has a lot to prove. I have my guys I like, but even I know they have a lot to prove too.

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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:12 am

Defender wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:52 am I really don’t understand why the consensus is that Duke Johnson is guaranteed all third down work.
Well, 'all' is an improbable absolute in this context. Dunno if you mean that literally, but Hyde/Chubb will get a handful of passing-down snaps per game.

But Duke will dominate the share, simply because he's one of the very best in the league at it, and thus begs usage.

Chubb may eventually be serviceable as a passing-down back if he ever stops blowing his assignment like he did nearly every time Georgia asked him to protect, but even granting that, will he ever be remotely the agility and play-strength mismatch against linebackers, safeties, and even nickel-corners that Duke Johnson is? Unlikely.
NFL teams prefer the versatility of a 3-down back.
They totally do, but what you're missing here is that Duke Johnson is a 3-down back himself. He isn't Chris Thompson. He's at least 210lbs now and could carry the ball 20 times in a game if Cleveland ever wanted him to. Duke is serviceable between the tackles, and his presence in the backfield doesn't forecast the play-call to the defense. He is representative of exactly that versatility you refer to.
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