Return of the stud RB as top commodity?

[moishetreats]

It used to be that stud RBs were the top commodity in fantasy football -- Tomlinson, Peterson, etc. As RBBCs exploded and shortened-RB careers at the top became more frequent (Portis, Alexander, Holmes), WRs elevated to position of top dogs in fantasy football.

From Zeke to Gurley to Hunt to Fournette to DJ to Bell to Cook to Kamara to Mixon to Howard to Barkley to the other rookie RBs, we could see a revival of true workhorse RB1s in way that we haven't had in a decade or even more. (Remember when common thinking was to draft RBs with your first three picks??)

With an infusion of young RB talent and no reason to presume that they'll have a couple of good years and then bust, will the pendulum swing back so that young stud RBs become the most valuable commodity? Does it make sense to get ahead of that curve?

[skip]

The RB-RB concept of the first two draft picks (I don't think I ever saw a third advocated as a strategy even if some did it) pre-dated PPR and is what led to many leagues employing it as a scoring system to try to balance the field.

I so think your overall premise has some validity but I don't think the pendulum will (or should) swing back to a heavy RB approach. Better owners will be utilizing VBD and taking advantage of point differentials at all positions.

[honcho55]

I think it’s too hard to tell personally. If you feel you’ve got a handle on it and can be ahead of the curve, more power to ya, I do not haha. For several reasons.

Assume standard ppr for this paragraph:

So, if you had gurley last year, he scored 383, the average of the next 11 RBs was 263 = +120

Brown scored 310, the next 11 WRs average 251= +59

And the drop off past the top 12 gets worse for RBs. So gurley was quite a bit more valuable than any WR, period, if you ask me. I’d imagine someone might debate me there.

The problems are all well discussed on these forums. A: RB longevity. Can we count on gurley to do this for X more years? B: predicting which RB/RBs carry that top end value. Not gonna look up Gurleys adp last year but he wasn’t the top dog, it was probly DJ/Bell/zeke. So trying to buy 363 points ala gurley can be great but there’s a lot of room for picking the wrong guy, and if you spent a premium to get there and end up with an average RB1 instead of overall RB1 it could burn ya.

[Hottoddies]

It used to be that stud RBs were the top commodity in fantasy football -- Tomlinson, Peterson, etc. As RBBCs exploded and shortened-RB careers at the top became more frequent (Portis, Alexander, Holmes), WRs elevated to position of top dogs in fantasy football.

From Zeke to Gurley to Hunt to Fournette to DJ to Bell to Cook to Kamara to Mixon to Howard to Barkley to the other rookie RBs, we could see a revival of true workhorse RB1s in way that we haven't had in a decade or even more. (Remember when common thinking was to draft RBs with your first three picks??)

With an infusion of young RB talent and no reason to presume that they'll have a couple of good years and then bust, will the pendulum swing back so that young stud RBs become the most valuable commodity? Does it make sense to get ahead of that curve?

I think you're a year or two too late on being ahead of that curve. If you haven't notice, RBs have been populating the 1st round in startups. Now if you truly want to get ahead of the curve I would stock up on young elite WRs like OBJ, Hopkins, Evans, or 2019 1st round picks. There are a ton of top 20 WRs who will age out over the next 3 years.

[clarion contrarion]

The premise stated by the OP is not wrong but in my opinion scratches the surface for a few reasons .

1) the NFL is cyclical in nature - with the pretenders always chasing the trend chasers be it in scheme , play calling or personnel . Defenses adjust and imitators while flattering usually are cheap replicas of the original copy and thus lesser quality

2) the rules change periodically and they have changed towards the passing game recently forcing defenses to adjust by adding more dbs thus making running more appealing with deone buchanon / mark barron sized LBS .

3) talent pools fluctuate thus at times more premium talent at rb than wr thus changing the landscape of positional depth .

4) the vanguard of elite qbs (brady brees ben rivers - all on or nearing the white flag lap of their races) is aging fast and there to my eyes does not appear to be an equal quantity or quality on the horizon thus making passing 650 times less appealing than the last decade.
This could be a long term issue or not just look at the way truly JAG players like garrapolo ,cousins and this run of the mill qb class are being hyped up like unitas and peyton as savior's of the game/franchises . showing the league's desperation to find the next batch or poster boys

5) the huge rb depth at this point could go away in a blink with a few injuries or guys getting paid and easing off the gas desire wise .

all non scientific observations /opinions of a multi decade football fan for what that is worth - the nfl has become a victim of its own success with all the reports of CTE and the billions it churns through its coffers each year putting a target on it's own forehead . With college football more and more going with spread offenses and flag football/7 on 7 offensive concepts the passing game/wr value will return most likely sooner rather than later . This assumes 2 things : first , the league finds it's poster boy qb fleet - secondly ,defenses adjust to slow down the elliotts gurleys and kamaras of the world .

Either way as skip mentioned PPR was a way to level the fantasy playing field for the owners that ended up with chester taylor or kevan barlow as opposed to larry johnson or shaun alexander . Now 2qb or superflex is now one of those ways and going into the future it is hard to say what the next trend will be - what I do know is that zigging while the herd of dynasty wildebeasts are zagging is usually going to mean less traffic and less redundancy in people using the same strategy.

Don't follow the well worn path take a machete' and create your own path !

[JTLoh]

I think you're a year or two too late on being ahead of that curve.

this

[joeya2001]

The premise stated by the OP is not wrong but in my opinion scratches the surface for a few reasons .

1) the NFL is cyclical in nature - with the pretenders always chasing the trend chasers be it in scheme , play calling or personnel . Defenses adjust and imitators while flattering usually are cheap replicas of the original copy and thus lesser quality

2) the rules change periodically and they have changed towards the passing game recently forcing defenses to adjust by adding more dbs thus making running more appealing with deone buchanon / mark barron sized LBS .

3) talent pools fluctuate thus at times more premium talent at rb than wr thus changing the landscape of positional depth .

4) the vanguard of elite qbs (brady brees ben rivers - all on or nearing the white flag lap of their races) is aging fast and there to my eyes does not appear to be an equal quantity or quality on the horizon thus making passing 650 times less appealing than the last decade.
This could be a long term issue or not just look at the way truly JAG players like garrapolo ,cousins and this run of the mill qb class are being hyped up like unitas and peyton as savior's of the game/franchises . showing the league's desperation to find the next batch or poster boys

5) the huge rb depth at this point could go away in a blink with a few injuries or guys getting paid and easing off the gas desire wise .

all non scientific observations /opinions of a multi decade football fan for what that is worth - the nfl has become a victim of its own success with all the reports of CTE and the billions it churns through its coffers each year putting a target on it's own forehead . With college football more and more going with spread offenses and flag football/7 on 7 offensive concepts the passing game/wr value will return most likely sooner rather than later . This assumes 2 things : first , the league finds it's poster boy qb fleet - secondly ,defenses adjust to slow down the elliotts gurleys and kamaras of the world .

Either way as skip mentioned PPR was a way to level the fantasy playing field for the owners that ended up with chester taylor or kevan barlow as opposed to larry johnson or shaun alexander . Now 2qb or superflex is now one of those ways and going into the future it is hard to say what the next trend will be - what I do know is that zigging while the herd of dynasty wildebeasts are zagging is usually going to mean less traffic and less redundancy in people using the same strategy.

Don't follow the well worn path take a machete' and create your own path !

Wow that was a great read!!!! Pretty much how I Play FF, I tend to do the opposite of my league mates.

[kamihamster]

The premise stated by the OP is not wrong but in my opinion scratches the surface for a few reasons .

1) the NFL is cyclical in nature - with the pretenders always chasing the trend chasers be it in scheme , play calling or personnel . Defenses adjust and imitators while flattering usually are cheap replicas of the original copy and thus lesser quality

2) the rules change periodically and they have changed towards the passing game recently forcing defenses to adjust by adding more dbs thus making running more appealing with deone buchanon / mark barron sized LBS .

3) talent pools fluctuate thus at times more premium talent at rb than wr thus changing the landscape of positional depth .

4) the vanguard of elite qbs (brady brees ben rivers - all on or nearing the white flag lap of their races) is aging fast and there to my eyes does not appear to be an equal quantity or quality on the horizon thus making passing 650 times less appealing than the last decade.
This could be a long term issue or not just look at the way truly JAG players like garrapolo ,cousins and this run of the mill qb class are being hyped up like unitas and peyton as savior's of the game/franchises . showing the league's desperation to find the next batch or poster boys

5) the huge rb depth at this point could go away in a blink with a few injuries or guys getting paid and easing off the gas desire wise .

all non scientific observations /opinions of a multi decade football fan for what that is worth - the nfl has become a victim of its own success with all the reports of CTE and the billions it churns through its coffers each year putting a target on it's own forehead . With college football more and more going with spread offenses and flag football/7 on 7 offensive concepts the passing game/wr value will return most likely sooner rather than later . This assumes 2 things : first , the league finds it's poster boy qb fleet - secondly ,defenses adjust to slow down the elliotts gurleys and kamaras of the world .

Either way as skip mentioned PPR was a way to level the fantasy playing field for the owners that ended up with chester taylor or kevan barlow as opposed to larry johnson or shaun alexander . Now 2qb or superflex is now one of those ways and going into the future it is hard to say what the next trend will be - what I do know is that zigging while the herd of dynasty wildebeasts are zagging is usually going to mean less traffic and less redundancy in people using the same strategy.

Don't follow the well worn path take a machete' and create your own path !

this is how i see it. the past few years WRs were the position to own as the league became more pass happy and the rule changes made team small WR more viable. defenses have adjusted to this change with smaller, faster LBs. now that defenses are smaller it makes it easier for the run game to be viable. but, with the resurgence in RBs, defenses will start to adjust (again) to stop them with run stuffing LBs. this will soften up coverage and once again the WR will be the elite position.

the pass catching RBs do pose a threat to this cyclical nature, and I think that they will always be a problem. there have always been the scat back types, but i can't remember there being so many RBs that could both beat you on the ground and through the air. i'm not sure how defenses will adjust to these RBs if this trend continues.

[Valhalla74]

I think the stud RB with PPR is the top commodity. If you look at the current players you mentioned, they all have PPR as a necessity.

It was the same with Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes back in the day. It's just a new wave of players.

[moishetreats]

Thanks for the replies, everyone. I appreciate your comments and thoughts!!

I agree with @Valhalla74 that the stud RB in PPR is the most valuable commodity. I appreciate all the in-depth replies, too. The nature of the changing NFL -- and with safety/hybrid LBs better equipped to pass defend than run defend -- might keep pushing the needle, as well.

I also see more fluctuation at the top of the WR tiers than before and don't see the volatility as a big factor like you do, @honcho55. Maybe we give WRs a bit more a grace period because they often take a couple of years to develop. But, I don't think the notion that WRs and lock-'em-in top-X for the next decade is really true. Maybe a little less volatility than RBs, but WRs fluctuate quite a bit in their own value, as well.

[Tsunami]

It used to be that the RBs were consistently top scorers, and the one WR who scored as high as the RBs (Calvin Johnson) was worth a ton. And then other WRs started doing it - Brown, Jones, Green, DT, Dez, and instead of moving Calvin down like supply and demand would suggest, we moved them all up. This coincided with the rise of the RBBC and in a matter of a few years suddenly the whole first round was WRs.

And now we're doing the opposite - Bell was the one top RB, and now others are outscoring him so we're moving them all up. A rookie who has never played is now 5th overall? The overcompensation has swung back to the RB side. DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley are 1st round rookies that are going to start at WR and still they're worth less than 7 RBs including 3 or 4 that won't start?

[moishetreats]

Following up...

In an auction league (Team 2 in sig), it's noteworthy that the average price of RBs (both the top-8 and the top-24) went up by about $1/player and the average price of WRs (both the top-12 and the top-36) went down by about $1. That might not seem like a lot, but averaging it over two and three dozen players is statistically significant.

Obviously, it's unclear if this is an occurrence or the start of a trend. But, it is something empirical at least...

[Krypto_King]

2) the rules change periodically and they have changed towards the passing game recently forcing defenses to adjust by adding more dbs thus making running more appealing with deone buchanon / mark barron sized LBS .

3) talent pools fluctuate thus at times more premium talent at rb than wr thus changing the landscape of positional depth .

4) the vanguard of elite qbs (brady brees ben rivers - all on or nearing the white flag lap of their races) is aging fast and there to my eyes does not appear to be an equal quantity or quality on the horizon thus making passing 650 times less appealing than the last decade.
This could be a long term issue or not just look at the way truly JAG players like garrapolo ,cousins and this run of the mill qb class are being hyped up like unitas and peyton as savior's of the game/franchises . showing the league's desperation to find the next batch or poster boys

2) I would say the opposite actually, there are not enough athletic and agile LBs yet. The modern RB is not rushing for 1500-1800 yards, it is the receiving yardage that is putting them over the top. Zeke is probably the only exception and he's only got about 1.25 seasons of evidence he can maintain.

3) I don't think it is a talent issue at WR but a quantity issue. 3 wide is the base for all teams now so market share is not being consolidated as much. Targets = fantasy points.

4) I agree with this and to take it further I believe athleticism + mobility in a QB are being valued more heavily than ever and thus traditional passing prowess has to be devalued slightly in comparison. The perception seems to be that OL play is down across the league as well and this could certainly play a part. Tunsil seems like the most recent stud Tackle prospect and he hasn't fully hit yet. Not since Tyron Smith in 2011 have we had a freak that's lived up to his hype.

My ideal startup league would now be .5PPR, must start at least 3WR, all TD=6 superflex. I think start 4 WR leagues would be an interesting new wrinkle as well.

[Vcize]

It's really very simple. It's always been about the stud RB, we just had a dearth of good young RBs entering the league for a few years that happened to coincide with one of the best young WR classes of all-time, and people overreacted.

Now we've gone the total opposite direction with many good young RBs coming into the league alongside some pretty weak WR classes.

It's all cyclical.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Nice usage of “dearth.” Underrated word.