Joe Mixon Thread: 4 Year extension in Cincy

[Johnny Canuck]

The valuation might be high, but I have to believe there are several other players in a similar situation that haven't produced much and still highly rated. And yet, we have this thread on Mixon and not the others. People can love or hate whoever they want, I just don't understand it half the time, and not just with Mixon.

I totally agree. There could be multiple other player threads dedicated to unwarranted ADPs and valuations. But you can't make a specific thread on everyone, and Mixon appears to have the biggest disparity (imo) between fantasy value/actual production (although you could make an argument for many other players).

[Goddard]

Just quickly looked at the most updated ADP on DLF. First of all, how is Barkley's ADP 5 overall???? Why aren't we outraged by that? I know there are a lot of other threads on him here, but I've been ignoring those, so I don't really know what's being said about that. I like Cook and not a big fan of Fournette, but how is Cook's ADP higher? McKinnon hasn't proven anything and yet he's going ahead of Howard. Evan Engram is one spot ahead of Ertz - how does that make any sense? And I'm sure there's a lot more. Mixon is right behind Melvin Gordon. The only other RB that might have an argument of going ahead of him in ADP is Howard. Don't see what all the fuss is about. The WRs right behind him are Diggs, Arob, and Davis, which again, I don't really see anything wrong with. Why does Davis get a pass for having a poor rookie season and still being valued more than Juju and other proven players, and yet we can't do the same for Mixon?

[Phaded]

Goddard, I would not say we are not outraged; but I would think those of us who are against several of those absurd rankings say our piece and move on. I know myself, I personally do not waste much of my time anymore. Essentially since my infamous post of calling out Cooper and being mostly ridiculed, I do not bother trying to convince people to not make mistakes anymore. If someone around here goes against the consensus it is a relatively common theme to just become the subject of ridicule. So I do not think people do not disagree, there is simply little point in voicing it.

[skip]

I will admit that the Mixon hype is very high, but I'm one of the guys that likes him and thinks he hasn't really had a chance to really show us what he can do. I won't go into why I think he's going to be very good because plenty already have and it won't change anyone's mind anyway until he actually shows something. What I don't understand is the amount of hate this guy gets. Sure, there's a lot of love and people really high on him, but the rest of the community just despises this guy for some reason. I said from day one that I don't expect much his rookie season and he actually surpassed some of my expectations. But people make it sound like he's a bum and will never be any good. He's 21 and had a reasonable rookie season behind a terrible o-line and a terrible coaching staff.

It's not about being "despised", it's just about context. There are minimally 4 better RBs from last season: Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, and McCaffrey. Mixon went anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th RB off the board last season (behind Cook, who I didn't mention) and just ahead of Hunt in many leagues while Kamara was the one outlier to go later in the 1st or even early 2nd. We can't just throw out what happened in their respective rookie seasons as meaningless and stick to a rigid belief about where these players should be valued.

Now add in some of the "veterans" like Zeke, Gurley, Bell, DJ, Freeman, Gordon, Howard... Not even including the rookies, this puts Mixon outside of the top 10 which has been my position.

[skip]

Just quickly looked at the most updated ADP on DLF. First of all, how is Barkley's ADP 5 overall???? Why aren't we outraged by that?

There already was an entire thread discussing Barkley's inflated value. And I am outraged. Barkley has NO business being a 1st round pick. I suspect that the bulk of those who think he should go that early are relatively new to the game and haven't gone thru many years of witnessing how large numbers of early picks never live up to their valuation.

[Johnny Canuck]

Just quickly looked at the most updated ADP on DLF. First of all, how is Barkley's ADP 5 overall???? Why aren't we outraged by that? I know there are a lot of other threads on him here, but I've been ignoring those, so I don't really know what's being said about that. I like Cook and not a big fan of Fournette, but how is Cook's ADP higher? McKinnon hasn't proven anything and yet he's going ahead of Howard. Evan Engram is one spot ahead of Ertz - how does that make any sense? And I'm sure there's a lot more. Mixon is right behind Melvin Gordon. The only other RB that might have an argument of going ahead of him in ADP is Howard. Don't see what all the fuss is about. The WRs right behind him are Diggs, Arob, and Davis, which again, I don't really see anything wrong with. Why does Davis get a pass for having a poor rookie season and still being valued more than Juju and other proven players, and yet we can't do the same for Mixon?

Most of the players you mention already are being discussed elsewhere, and their ability/inability/valuation is already being debated. I don't actually see many of the players you mention "get a pass."

Maybe the difference is that this thread is starting from a devaluation standpoint rather than a hype train/"our player is the best" standpoint.

It doesn't mean that those players you mention are getting a pass in other threads, I'm sure if you search you'll find some contrarian views calling out ADP/valuation, but since they're not the consensus view, they are inherently not as prevalent as the hype posts.

Don't act like Mixon is being unfairly treated.

Anyways...back on track...Mixon's statistical evidence smells worse than the devils anus and all you unicorn believing Mixon truthers need a better argument as to why he's worthy of his ADP lol.

Let's see your best sales pitch.

[Goddard]

I will admit that the Mixon hype is very high, but I'm one of the guys that likes him and thinks he hasn't really had a chance to really show us what he can do. I won't go into why I think he's going to be very good because plenty already have and it won't change anyone's mind anyway until he actually shows something. What I don't understand is the amount of hate this guy gets. Sure, there's a lot of love and people really high on him, but the rest of the community just despises this guy for some reason. I said from day one that I don't expect much his rookie season and he actually surpassed some of my expectations. But people make it sound like he's a bum and will never be any good. He's 21 and had a reasonable rookie season behind a terrible o-line and a terrible coaching staff.

It's not about being "despised", it's just about context. There are minimally 4 better RBs from last season: Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, and McCaffrey. Mixon went anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th RB off the board last season (behind Cook, who I didn't mention) and just ahead of Hunt in many leagues while Kamara was the one outlier to go later in the 1st or even early 2nd. We can't just throw out what happened in their respective rookie seasons as meaningless and stick to a rigid belief about where these players should be valued.

Now add in some of the "veterans" like Zeke, Gurley, Bell, DJ, Freeman, Gordon, Howard... Not even including the rookies, this puts Mixon outside of the top 10 which has been my position.

Based on the DLF ADP, Freeman and Howard are the only RBs that are behind Mixon (and not by much), and I can somewhat understand that because this community seems to be pretty split on both those guys. So to me, the majority probably agrees with you, which is why I don't understand why we need this thread to begin with. As for the rookies you mentioned, yes, they all had better rookie seasons. But would it be that unreasonable for a player to have a poor rookie season, when most expected him to from the beginning, to then breakout out in his second year? I have no problem with people taking the rookies you mentioned ahead of Mixon, but I also wouldn't blame Mixon owners for hanging onto him because they didn't let a player's rookie season make them think that he was any worse than those guys.

[Goddard]

Just quickly looked at the most updated ADP on DLF. First of all, how is Barkley's ADP 5 overall???? Why aren't we outraged by that? I know there are a lot of other threads on him here, but I've been ignoring those, so I don't really know what's being said about that. I like Cook and not a big fan of Fournette, but how is Cook's ADP higher? McKinnon hasn't proven anything and yet he's going ahead of Howard. Evan Engram is one spot ahead of Ertz - how does that make any sense? And I'm sure there's a lot more. Mixon is right behind Melvin Gordon. The only other RB that might have an argument of going ahead of him in ADP is Howard. Don't see what all the fuss is about. The WRs right behind him are Diggs, Arob, and Davis, which again, I don't really see anything wrong with. Why does Davis get a pass for having a poor rookie season and still being valued more than Juju and other proven players, and yet we can't do the same for Mixon?

Most of the players you mention already are being discussed elsewhere, and their ability/inability/valuation is already being debated. I don't actually see many of the players you mention "get a pass."

Maybe the difference is that this thread is starting from a devaluation standpoint rather than a hype train/"our player is the best" standpoint.

It doesn't mean that those players you mention are getting a pass in other threads, I'm sure if you search you'll find some contrarian views calling out ADP/valuation, but since they're not the consensus view, they are inherently not as prevalent as the hype posts.

Don't act like Mixon is being unfairly treated.

Anyways...back on track...Mixon's statistical evidence smells worse than the devils anus and all you unicorn believing Mixon truthers need a better argument as to why he's worthy of his ADP lol.

Let's see your best sales pitch.

I'm not here to sell anything, so you're not going to get a sales pitch from me. I'm just going to wait till the season starts and hope he produces. If not, then I guess I was wrong with my valuation of him. But if you're high on a rookie and he doesn't produce, I'd be curious if you give up on him the following year like you're expecting everyone to do with Mixon.

[skip]

Based on the DLF ADP, Freeman and Howard are the only RBs that are behind Mixon (and not by much), and I can somewhat understand that because this community seems to be pretty split on both those guys. So to me, the majority probably agrees with you, which is why I don't understand why we need this thread to begin with. As for the rookies you mentioned, yes, they all had better rookie seasons. But would it be that unreasonable for a player to have a poor rookie season, when most expected him to from the beginning, to then breakout out in his second year? I have no problem with people taking the rookies you mentioned ahead of Mixon, but I also wouldn't blame Mixon owners for hanging onto him because they didn't let a player's rookie season make them think that he was any worse than those guys.

I don't think this thread is about ADP, it's about the comments regarding Mixon that we see in the Team Advice sub-forum where it is very clear that the majority of those who like Mixon value him much higher than that ADP.

I didn't realize that Mixon owners/fans expected him to have a poor rookie season...that's pretty new to me and seems more like a "hindsight is 20/20" kind of perspective.

And I think some may be getting the wrong idea... I do think he COULD be better than that, I am just finding that the viewpoint is rather skewed as though Mixon isn't close to his ceiling - and that his ceiling is massive - while many of the others are. That's a pretty hard sell and one where I see nothing more than a subjective argument.

[Goddard]

Based on the DLF ADP, Freeman and Howard are the only RBs that are behind Mixon (and not by much), and I can somewhat understand that because this community seems to be pretty split on both those guys. So to me, the majority probably agrees with you, which is why I don't understand why we need this thread to begin with. As for the rookies you mentioned, yes, they all had better rookie seasons. But would it be that unreasonable for a player to have a poor rookie season, when most expected him to from the beginning, to then breakout out in his second year? I have no problem with people taking the rookies you mentioned ahead of Mixon, but I also wouldn't blame Mixon owners for hanging onto him because they didn't let a player's rookie season make them think that he was any worse than those guys.

I don't think this thread is about ADP, it's about the comments regarding Mixon that we see in the Team Advice sub-forum where it is very clear that the majority of those who like Mixon value him much higher than that ADP.

I didn't realize that Mixon owners/fans expected him to have a poor rookie season...that's pretty new to me and seems more like a "hindsight is 20/20" kind of perspective.

And I think some may be getting the wrong idea... I do think he COULD be better than that, I am just finding that the viewpoint is rather skewed as though Mixon isn't close to his ceiling - and that his ceiling is massive - while many of the others are. That's a pretty hard sell and one where I see nothing more than a subjective argument.

I may have been in the minority then, but if you go back a year, I'm sure you'll find I, and a few others that I can remember, said they don't expect much from Mixon in year one. I even remember in the Mixon/CMC threads stating that I expect CMC to out-produce Mixon that year, even though I was on the Mixon side of the arguments.

[UATahoe]

This community is full of hot takes and player truthers. If we spend time addressing all of them, we will be here forever. This thread is getting more and more confusing but i guess its keeping people busy. Just sit back and wait for your i told you so moment if Mixon fails. That seems to be the only solution here. People are always going to like different players. I am sure every poster here believes in a player strongly that a lot of others would just completely disagree with. Just the nature of the beast.

[Johnny Canuck]

I'm not here to sell anything, so you're not going to get a sales pitch from me. I'm just going to wait till the season starts and hope he produces. If not, then I guess I was wrong with my valuation of him. But if you're high on a rookie and he doesn't produce, I'd be curious if you give up on him the following year like you're expecting everyone to do with Mixon.

So you don't have an valid argument to dispute the poor statistical output...I don't either, other than poor play...hence my view that's he is overvalued.

You show me where I specifically said to give up on him lol. All I'm saying is his trade value FAR exceeds anything he put on tape, it's unwarranted/with very little basis in fact.

Not to get too far off topic, but I have a player in that specific scenario, Nick Chubb. I fully expect him to be pretty poor this season; however, my long term view is still quite high. Now if Chubb produces how Mixon did in 2017, Hyde is cut the following season, BUT I can get the same value that Mixon is going for in the truther market today...you can be damn sure I'd be selling Chubb. I certainly wouldn't be saying with any conviction that he's a top 10 RB after putting up stats like Mixons in 2017.

Mixon's overall value should be lower than it is, and if it was, I'd promote a hold strategy. But with his market being an inflated balloon, I recommend selling as his current valuation is highly inflated despite his horrible stats. Selling isn't the same as "giving up," as you get pieces back via trade. "Giving up" is cutting a player that you had hopes for, but isn't worth a roster spot, and has no value on the trade market. Two completely different things.

While I still think cold water should be thrown on Mixons valuation, I agree with UATahoe that it's "just the nature of the beast" and everyone is going to have different valuations for a variety of reasons. Some more psychological than statistical, but that's what makes it fun.

[thebeast]

Based on the DLF ADP, Freeman and Howard are the only RBs that are behind Mixon (and not by much), and I can somewhat understand that because this community seems to be pretty split on both those guys. So to me, the majority probably agrees with you, which is why I don't understand why we need this thread to begin with. As for the rookies you mentioned, yes, they all had better rookie seasons. But would it be that unreasonable for a player to have a poor rookie season, when most expected him to from the beginning, to then breakout out in his second year? I have no problem with people taking the rookies you mentioned ahead of Mixon, but I also wouldn't blame Mixon owners for hanging onto him because they didn't let a player's rookie season make them think that he was any worse than those guys.

I don't think this thread is about ADP, it's about the comments regarding Mixon that we see in the Team Advice sub-forum where it is very clear that the majority of those who like Mixon value him much higher than that ADP.

I didn't realize that Mixon owners/fans expected him to have a poor rookie season...that's pretty new to me and seems more like a "hindsight is 20/20" kind of perspective.

And I think some may be getting the wrong idea... I do think he COULD be better than that, I am just finding that the viewpoint is rather skewed as though Mixon isn't close to his ceiling - and that his ceiling is massive - while many of the others are. That's a pretty hard sell and one where I see nothing more than a subjective argument.

He was drafted to a team with other talent. Gio is a pretty good RB and Hill was still the starter. Speaking of Hill, he is the perfect example of what can happen when you put too much stock into a single year and there are plenty other RB examples.

[Ice]

While I have serious concerns with Mixon's overall talent at this level, a significant argument for explaining Mixon's performance can be made about the the offensive system he plays in.

Only Detroit and Arizona had a worse yards per attempt last season at 3.4, Cincy and Washington were next worst at 3.6. (Mixon was 3.5) We could look at these 4 teams and say all there RB's were bad and that could explain some of the reason but I would argue that all these teams O Lines have been built more around the passing game than the running game. Cincy ranked 29th in total rushing attempts. They knew they had a balance problem on offense.

It should also be noted that they all face pretty tough run defenses in their divisions.

[mlynarcm]

So I have a question then. Mixon was drafted in my league as the 1.02. I picked him up this year for Garoppolo and the 1.05.

Are you guys saying that I overpayed?