Servo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:58 am
Don't know off the top of my head but how many games have Cobb/Adams missed over the last couple of years? That's all it takes for Allison to step in and produce, I'd probably temper my expectations until something like that happens.
I'm bored waiting around at work so I'll look into this and see what pops up.
2017: Adams, missed weeks 16/17. Cobb, missed weeks 3/13. Jordy, missed weeks 2/17.
Allison's Stats in 2017, in a week that either Adams, Jordy, or Cobb missed.
Week 2 = 3 for 5, 24 yards. 52 air yards, 10% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Jordy out) 5.4 ppr points.
Week 3 = 6 for 8, 122 yards. 114 air yards, 19% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 18.2 ppr points.
Week 13 = 0 for 1, 0 yards. 19 air yards, 5% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Cobb out) 0 ppr points.
Week 16 = 1 for 3, 9 yards. 26 air yards, 8% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Adams out) 1.9 ppr points.
Week 17 = 2 for 3, 15 yards. 11 air yards, 9% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Adams & Jordy out) 3.5 ppr points.
2016: Adams, no missed games. Cobb, missed weeks 8/16/17. Jordy, no missed games.
Allison's Stats in 2016, in a week that either Adams, Jordy, or Cobb missed.
Week 8 = 2 for 4, 21 yards, 1 TD. 40 air yards, 11% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 10.1 ppr points
Week 16 = 4 for 7, 66 yards. 81 air yards, 18% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 10.6 ppr points
Week 17 = 4 for 6, 91 yards, 123 air yards, 15% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 13.1 ppr points
At first glance it looks like Allison appears to do better when Cobb is out (not sure if he was moving to the slot for more snaps regarding for those games). He obvs does better with Rodgers at QB, and everytime he's had over a 15% target share he's hit at least 80 yards.
If you only count the games with Rodgers at QB, Allison has averaged 11.48 ppr points per game, whenever one or more of Adams/Cobb/Jordy missed a game. That would of put his ppg ranking just below Josh Gordon, and above Fuller/Lee/Cooper/Garcon/Sanu/Stills, at WR# 33. So a low end WR# 3, and an okay flex play.
Jordy is now gone, and we don't know what Graham will be, so it's a situation in flux. Although there's been chatter about Graham and Jordys role in the RZ being similar, Graham won't be used the same inbetween the 20s, even if split out wide. Even still, if you want Allison to be a thing in fantasy, you'd likely need Graham to be used much less than Jordy was inbetween the 20s, AND one of Cobb/Adams to go down, so Allison can get some consistent 15% plus target share games, resulting in real/confident startable production from Allison.
Not saying it can't happen tho. I fully suspect Graham will be used less than Jordy was, Cobb is already in a walking boot, and Adams has a history of concussions. So it all could come together for Allison, never know I suppose.
Also, in all those games with Rodgers at QB (where one of Cobb/Adams/Jordy missed), Allison was became the WR 3 for the team. So I guess it depends if what you think of Graham to a degree, because if Allison can just be the 3rd WR on Green Bays depth chart, there is a path to WR30ish success there.
And it is his ever important year 3 WR breakout season...