Geronimo Allison value

[RocketDr]

I'm bored waiting around at work so I'll look into this and see what pops up.

2017: Adams, missed weeks 16/17. Cobb, missed weeks 3/13. Jordy, missed weeks 2/17.

Allison's Stats in 2017, in a week that either Adams, Jordy, or Cobb missed.
Week 2 = 3 for 5, 24 yards. 52 air yards, 10% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Jordy out) 5.4 ppr points.
Week 3 = 6 for 8, 122 yards. 114 air yards, 19% target share. (Rodgers @ QB, Cobb out) 18.2 ppr points.
Week 13 = 0 for 1, 0 yards. 19 air yards, 5% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Cobb out) 0 ppr points.
Week 16 = 1 for 3, 9 yards. 26 air yards, 8% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Adams out) 1.9 ppr points.
Week 17 = 2 for 3, 15 yards. 11 air yards, 9% target share. (Hundley @ QB, Adams & Jordy out) 3.5 ppr points.


Etc, etc, etc.

[/quote]

All this stuff is awesome info. I picked Allison up off WW last year after he started getting a lot of hype from beat writers, and then ARod made some comments about not knowing how Allison went un-drafted. I own Adams and would like to flip Allison just to make some room, but I'm not moving him right now for anything less than a random/mid 3rd.

[Johnny Canuck]

This is more to the point of what I was replying to. How do you define 'great'?

I'm saying I don't think it's some locked-in probability that Allison becomes more than a fantasy WR3 play if Adams were to go down for the season. It's not even a sure thing yet that Allison wins the starting job in 3-wide. Packers threw a wide net at Day 3 WRs this year for a reason, I think.

Those are slightly different topics.

One, which packers WR is likely to win the 3rd WR job? And two, is the packers WR3 a handcuff of sorts for Cobb/Adams owners?

The Pack def did throw a wide net regarding rookie WRs, no argument here on that, esp after hearing some positive news about Moore early in camp. However, by all accounts this is the role that Allison currently occupies, so I'm just going to go with Occam's razor on this one, but like Servo said, as well as you pretty much, it's worthwhile to keep a close eye on those rookies.

Regardless of who wins the role, If Adams/Cobb all of sudden were out, it's highly probable that the next WR in line, would see a significant jump in trade value/ADP, as well as, a production bump. So even if you don't think the production will be there (I personally think it will and I'll outline why below), the player will still be a great sell high.

This exact scenario could happen for Allison (or whomever wins the 3rd WR role - right now it's Allison), and it's not a stretch to see elevated production after an injury to Cobb/Adams. For example, in games were Allison played with Rodgers, and one of Cobb/Jordy/Adams was out, Allison received a > or = to 15% target share, and avg 106 yards per game. This wasn't a situation that's all propped up by one game either (flawing the avg), Allison had no less than 81 yards in these games...I'd characterize that as pretty great production, not sustainable production, but hell I'll take 60% of that 106 avg yards per game.

Despite the small sample size, I'd be willing to bet there's a significant correlation between Aaron Rodgers Target Share Percentage and Fantasy Points.

With Jordy is gone, if Cobb and/or Adams were to go down, I think that the Packers WR3 (Allison ATM, but pick your personal favorite lotto ticket) will see a fair bit more work/production.

[ninotoreS]

https://twitter.com/ByRyanWood/status/1 ... 8249583616

As I've said, it's not at all a confident bet that Allison is the WR3 at the end of August.

A valuable 'cuff' is locked-in with that prospect and represents objectively high upside, even putting aside how dubious it is to cuff most WRs in the first place unless we're talking about a 'cuff' like JJSS or Calvin Ridley. Geronimo Allison does not fit this profile. To this point, he's been a next-man-up, not a potential stud in development / waiting for the opportunity.

Y'all that own Allison right now probably plucked him off the wire for free, and as usually proves to be the case, it's more likely than not that still represents his long-run value.

I don't think I ever explicitly answered the OP's question. For me, Allison's value right now is an '18 rookie-draft mid-4th round pick.

[SelectDynastyLeagues]

I think with Moore already working with the first team offense and Graham grabbing more targets than their TEs normally do, it’s hard for me to see Allison as relevant.

[Spinkso]

Allison has never struck me as more than a depth guy. If he was on a team that didn't have Jedi Rodgers throwing the ball, I'm not sure nearly as many would know his name. He has height, but doesn't show a lot of agility, explosiveness or speed. He's just a guy. Furthermore, Davante Adams is a flanker, and I doubt Allison can be a split end unless everything else has fallen apart around them.
J'Mon Moore is a Sparq stud, testing off the charts as an explosive athlete even if you include his 4.6 40 he ran at the combine. Moore later ran a 4.6 at Missouri's pro day, but his makeup and ability puts him as a split end.
Not only do I believe Moore to be a better player all around, but he fits into the position that's open for the packers.
I also believe that Allison will have to battle to keep Deangelo Yancey and MVS at bay. I don't see Allison winning a real role and could see him being inactive on Sundays.

[Spinkso]

I think with Moore already working with the first team offense and Graham grabbing more targets than their TEs normally do, it’s hard for me to see Allison as relevant.

McCarthy said that for a rookie to get 1st team reps it has to be earned. Moore also said the other day that Aaron Rodgers has taken him under his wing. Having McCarthy and Rodgers take a liking to a young guy is a big deal. We've seen that if Rodgers doesn't trust you, you aren't on the field much.

[Jcedwards]

What would you say his value is at right now? Been injured a couple weeks, but he has put up good numbers when he has played.

[btv802]

Basically any WR puts up good numbers when they start in Green Bay. Allison is a free agent in 2019 and I don't think he's special in any way. Feels like he's most likely a one year rental at best where you cross all of your fingers and toes the Packers decide to keep him in GB long term.

Not a lot of long term value here.

[btv802]

So I actually thought about this one a little bit more. Allison is in fact a restricted free agent in 2019 and the Packers could definitely put a tender on him to try and retain him cheaply like the Chargers did with Tyrell Williams this year. So if I was betting on one of Cobb or Allison being in GB next year I'd think Allison has the much better chance. Still doesn't make him hugely valuable long term but makes him potentially more than a one year rental, assuming he can hold off MVS and company.

[Dirty Mike&the Boys]

What would you say his value is at right now? Been injured a couple weeks, but he has put up good numbers when he has played.

As an Allison owner and a Packer fan who is on top of Packers news/trends, I would want a mid 2019 second for him. Cobb is most likely gone after next year, and the only rookie WR that has shown promise thus far is MVS. Allison has Rodgers trust, which means a lot. Allison appears to be in line for the 2nd slot behind Adams in 2019.