Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

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BigBawseRoss
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby BigBawseRoss » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:17 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:32 am
Here's my hot take. Don't worry I have a crystal ball so this will happen 100%.

This season Chubb won't be a factor until the midpoint. At some point into the season Hyde will get injured, because he always does, then Chubb will take that job and run with it. We see this all the time with talented rookie RBs that are behind incumbents, happened with DJ, happened with Kamara, this year it will happen with Chubb.

In the last half of the season, after the Browns week 11 bye, the team will be slightly out of the playoff race already, and will transition to using their rookies Mayfield and Chubb. Chubb will kill it against Cincy in weeks 11 and 16, but is in tough against top 10 run defenses for weeks 12, 13, 14, & 15. Regardless, I still think he'll perform, and it'll be a coming out party in the last half of the year for Chubb.

In the 2019-2020 season, Nick Chubb will be the obvious 2nd best RB out of this class. Chubb will be ranked in the top 12 for RBs. Hyde will be cut, Duke will not be resigned, and Chubb will be Todd Haleys new Lev Bell. Chubb won't see a workload exactly like Lev Bell with all the passing work, but Haley loves to lean on one guy, so a workload opportunity more like AP, Fournette, and Zeke should be expected - between 250-300 carries, with about 35-50 targets. Browns will sign a similar player to Duke to give Chubb a breather, or take the odd 3rd down work, someone like TJ Yeldon.

Trust me guys, I have a crystal ball I named foresight.

*obvs this was for fun, but tbh I don't really think it's all that far off. Feel like this has a better than not chance of happening.
i enjoyed this post so your efforts were not wasted lol
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Rivers , Rosen, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod
Kamara, McCoy, D FreemanCohen, Bibbs, Clement,J. Allen, ty mont,Ito Smith
K Allen, Hopkins, M Williams, AROB Alshon,KeKe,MVS,T McLaurin
Ebron Graham, Njoku, Irv

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Trubitsky, Dak
Chubb,Mixon, D Henry,Coleman, D Harris, Armstead, Mostert
Hopkins, K Allen, M Evans, C Davis, Watkins, Arob, M Williams, Edleman, J Gordon, Hurd
Ertz, Everett, Fant


team 3
http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0008

team 4
https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0010

team 5
http://www57.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =0008&O=07

team 6
http://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0004

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https://www51.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0011

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Jason3123 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:19 pm

Bot101 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:54 am
Defender wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:14 am
Jason3123 wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:17 pm


I am. I'm also old enough to realize he hasn't been nearly the same player since his injury. His combine was amazing, and I hope he's an absolute monster. 2013/14 Chubb, absolute phenom. 2016/17 Chubb, good player.
Very true. Had it not been for the injury, I think we would be arguing who is better between Barkley and Chubb.

When you watch the Chubb/Michel tape, (I can’t recall if this was said by a poster here or if I heard it on a podcast) it looks like defenses key in on the run when Chubb is in the backfield. This is not because Chubb can’t catch, but because the team didn’t use him that way (because Michel is so much better).

Anyway, while I disagree, I do understand the reasoning behind your apprehension.
I brought that out in a thread and I mentioned specifically the championship game vs Alabama. Michel looked like he had huge holes to run through but the LBs would creep forward and make a wall when Chubb was out there. I think the thread is the 2018 Running Backs?
Graham Barfield on fantasyguru.com released his numbers and Michel faced more stacked boxes than Chubb.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Jason3123 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:26 pm

Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:06 am
Jason3123 wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:31 pm

Of course there's value. Browns are still allowed to play football. But going to the Browns is a curse. Pryor 1 and done. Braylon 1 hit wonder. No QB for 20+ years. Hue Jackson is trash. Gordon 1 year wonder. They come and go. Dysfunctional organization. Spending a top rookie pick on a Brown is just gross. It's the price of investment that is horrible. Just like all these poor souls spending high capital on Josh Gordon. It's like they enjoy cutting themselves in the shower.
were you saying the same thing about rams players before last season?

.
No, because the Rams overhauled their offense and Todd Gurley was already proven to be good. Hue Jackson is a bum, and so is the owner. He creates dysfunction throughout the organization. Thanks to Sashi Brown who gifted them with so many premium picks they might finally have some talent, but Hue won't know what to do with it. We don't know if Nick Chubb is good. He probably will be. Or maybe he'll be a bust and have lingering injuries. We don't know. Also, the Browns have been a laughing stock for 20+ years. The Rams haven't. How many times do we have to be tricked by the Browns? Burning premium picks on these guys, time and time again. Corey Coleman was a 2nd round startup pickup less than 2 years ago. Now owners are begging to give him away, throwing him into deals. To the poster who threw out Gordon, Pryor..those guys were significantly cheaper. And Gordon gave you what, 1 season over the last 6 years? Just been clogging a roster spot praying to the football gods. Pryor was ridiculous cheap, waiver wire trash. At least Duke was a mid 2nd or so. Even he doesn't get to carry the ball 100 times a year on a roster that has nobody. Sad that they already ruined Baker's career.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby John Paul » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:49 pm

He fell to pick #18 in my draft. I was happy.

http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2018/o ... 38406&O=17
10 Team PPR Dynasty (2012 Startup) 1st 2019 2nd
1 QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-2 TE, 1 Flex, K, LB, DB, DL(11 starters total)(30 Man Rosters, 1 IR)

QB: Aaron Rodgers(1.01/'12), Mitchell Trubisky(2.04/'17), Gardner Minshew(Trade'20), Ryan Tannehill(WW/'19)
RB: Todd Gurley(1.04/'15), Joe Mixon(Trade'18), Nick Chubb(2.08/'18), Tarik Cohen(WW/'17), Raheem Mostert(WW/'19), Kenyan Drake(Trade'20)
WR: Julio Jones(Trade '20), Mike Evans(Trade '18), Cooper Kupp(Trade '18), Allen Robinson (Trade '19), Parris Campbell(1.10/'19), Andy Isabella(2.02/'19), [IR]Hakeem Butler(2.04/'19), Diontae Johnson(WW/'19)
TE: Mark Andrews(WW/'19), Darren Waller(WW/'19), David Njoku(WW/'19)
K: Zuerlein(WW/'17)
LB: Fred Warner(WW/'19)
DB: Jabril Peppers(WW/'19), Minkah Fitzpatrick(WW/'19)
DL: Sam Hubbard(WW/'19), Josh Allen(WW/'19)

Drop 5, draft 5
2020: 3, 3, 4, 5, 5
2021: 1, 1, 1, 2, 4

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:02 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:32 am
a workload opportunity more like AP, Fournette, and Zeke should be expected - between 250-300 carries
In seriousness, though:

Those examples of RBs had/have something in common: a subpar passing offense. It's uncommon that you see an RB reach the 300 carry mark in an offense with a QB that's reaching 4k+ passing yardage every year.

I won't project Chubb for 300 carries in '20 or beyond (and I do expect Hyde to get cut in '19, for the record) because I'm optimistic about Baker Mayfield.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:21 am

Jason3123 wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:26 pm
Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:06 am
Jason3123 wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:31 pm

Of course there's value. Browns are still allowed to play football. But going to the Browns is a curse. Pryor 1 and done. Braylon 1 hit wonder. No QB for 20+ years. Hue Jackson is trash. Gordon 1 year wonder. They come and go. Dysfunctional organization. Spending a top rookie pick on a Brown is just gross. It's the price of investment that is horrible. Just like all these poor souls spending high capital on Josh Gordon. It's like they enjoy cutting themselves in the shower.
were you saying the same thing about rams players before last season?

.
No, because the Rams overhauled their offense and Todd Gurley was already proven to be good. Hue Jackson is a bum, and so is the owner. He creates dysfunction throughout the organization. Thanks to Sashi Brown who gifted them with so many premium picks they might finally have some talent, but Hue won't know what to do with it. We don't know if Nick Chubb is good. He probably will be. Or maybe he'll be a bust and have lingering injuries. We don't know. Also, the Browns have been a laughing stock for 20+ years. The Rams haven't. How many times do we have to be tricked by the Browns? Burning premium picks on these guys, time and time again. Corey Coleman was a 2nd round startup pickup less than 2 years ago. Now owners are begging to give him away, throwing him into deals. To the poster who threw out Gordon, Pryor..those guys were significantly cheaper. And Gordon gave you what, 1 season over the last 6 years? Just been clogging a roster spot praying to the football gods. Pryor was ridiculous cheap, waiver wire trash. At least Duke was a mid 2nd or so. Even he doesn't get to carry the ball 100 times a year on a roster that has nobody. Sad that they already ruined Baker's career.
i believe the browns have a real football gm now. if hue blows it this year do you really think he will be back the next? no way.

and the rams were pitiful for 14 years. fisher made them below average but also had the worst offense in league history just about.

i can't believe how many people still doubted the rams after mcvay came in and totally transformed the receiving corps and bolstered the oline. that fisher was useless on offense. the browns could be next with the right coach. they already have the players in place.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:17 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:02 am
Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:32 am
a workload opportunity more like AP, Fournette, and Zeke should be expected - between 250-300 carries
In seriousness, though:

Those examples of RBs had/have something in common: a subpar passing offense. It's uncommon that you see an RB reach the 300 carry mark in an offense with a QB that's reaching 4k+ passing yardage every year.

I won't project Chubb for 300 carries in '20 or beyond (and I do expect Hyde to get cut in '19, for the record) because I'm optimistic about Baker Mayfield.
I agree that the bolded portion is "uncommon", however the 4k/300 carry inverse correlation isn't 100%, and the constant deviation within that correlation gives me optimism about Chubbs future usage, even though, I'm also quite high on the Browns future passing attack. Let me explain...

Let's examine the closest indicator we have for future usage of the Browns/Chubb, the guy who calls plays and actually dictates usage, Todd Haley.

The fact that Todd Haley is calling the plays in Cleveland changes things a bit. For ref, Haley was the OC in Pitt since 2012, Lev Bell joined the team in 2013. The entire time Bell has been on Pitt with Haley, he's been on pace for and/or hit the 300 carry mark every season with the exception of 2014 (where he had 290 carries). So pretty much every yr Bell has been on a 300 carry pace, obvs he didn't hit it every season due to injury, but that's the usage pattern. In conjunction with this, the Pitt offense has put up over 4k passing yardage every year that Bell paced/broke 300 carries.

Sooooooo the fact that Todd Haley did that as the OC with Pitt, and now he's the OC on the Browns, gives me some optimism.

After a quick scan, these are the teams that have had 4K in passing yards, and utilized an RB on a 300 carry pace.

2017
- Rivers/MG3
- Big Ben/Bell

2016
- Palmer/DJ (290 carries)
- Big Ben/Bell
- Brady & Jimmy G/Blount (299 carries)
- Rivers/MG3

2015
- Big Ben/Bell
- Winston/Dmart (288 carries)

2014
- Big Ben/Bell
- Foles & Sanchez/McCoy

2013
- Big Ben/Bell
- Cutler & McCown/Forte
- Rivers/Mathews (285 carries)

Now obviously you are correct in the vast majority of cases, it is true that a team will not have a 300 carry back and throw for more than 4k in yardage. But there is a handful of exceptions to the rule each year...and the constant exception is Big Ben/Bell, and by extension Todd Haley. Now this could be simply due to Bell being an outlier at his position (which he is), but there are other outliers at the RB position that don't get used so heavily by different coaches, so the guy calling the plays definitely has an effect. In addition, I also think that Chubb has the talent to be an outlier at the position as well (obviously more so in between the tackles).

So long story short, I'm pretty optimistic that even if the Browns find a solid passing game, Todd Haley will still lean heavily on his fav RB...like he has done for the last five years.
Last edited by Johnny Canuck on Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby thebeast » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:33 am

PNWHawkfan wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:02 pm
thebeast wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:20 pm
Talk about a polarizing player. Chubb went 1.03 in one of my rookie drafts, 1.7 in another (I got him there), and 1.9 in my most recent draft.
Congratulations then. I believe you got a great value on a good RB prospect. I'm not trying to inflate anyone's value on this site since nobody in my league reads these posts anyway. I respect your opinion on Chubb's value. I believe an honest case could be made for anyone of the top tier backs to go in any order of rookie drafts this year. Personally, I am excited to watch them all do great things.
That’s cool. I was happy to get him at 1.07, but I also drafted Rojo at 1.04. I wonder where Rojo would rank with the community if he ran a 4.34 at the combine? I believe that is closer to his actual speed than the combine results.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby PNWHawkfan » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:37 am

thebeast wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:33 am
PNWHawkfan wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:02 pm
thebeast wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:20 pm
Talk about a polarizing player. Chubb went 1.03 in one of my rookie drafts, 1.7 in another (I got him there), and 1.9 in my most recent draft.
Congratulations then. I believe you got a great value on a good RB prospect. I'm not trying to inflate anyone's value on this site since nobody in my league reads these posts anyway. I respect your opinion on Chubb's value. I believe an honest case could be made for anyone of the top tier backs to go in any order of rookie drafts this year. Personally, I am excited to watch them all do great things.
That’s cool. I was happy to get him at 1.07, but I also drafted Rojo at 1.04. I wonder where Rojo would rank with the community if he ran a 4.34 at the combine? I believe that is closer to his actual speed than the combine results.
I was really hoping to see him run the 40 at the combine as I could see him easily getting that 4.34 time. Alot of guys in the community have him as a bonafide new age Jamal Charles. And I racked my brain for a long time on how to rank these guys. In the end I did my best to remember that situation just can't dictate value (for me) anyway. I love Penny's situation I really do and I believe he has immediate value. Along with ROJO, I just want the homerun long term asset and that eventually led me to Chubb.
12 Team 38 man Rosters PPR league QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR-TE/Flex and IDP
QB- Matt Ryan, Jared Goff
RB- Nick Chubb , L. Bell , D. Singletary , Austin Ekelar, Chase Edmonds, Jamall Williams
WR-D. Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, AJ Brown, C. Ridley, AJ Green, Corey Davis, Allan Lazard
TE- Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper

IDP- 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 2 FLEX 1 PT per Tackle, .5 PT per Assist. 3 Bonus for every 3 Tackles, 6 PT per sack
DT/DE-Aaron Donald, DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Derrek Barnett,
LB- Luke Kueckly, Darius Leonard , Corey littleton, Devin Bush, Jaylon Smith, CJ Mosely, Telvin Smith
DB- Landon Collins, Tyrann Matheiu, Jesse Bates

IR
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:50 am

thebeast wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:33 am
That’s cool. I was happy to get him at 1.07, but I also drafted Rojo at 1.04. I wonder where Rojo would rank with the community if he ran a 4.34 at the combine? I believe that is closer to his actual speed than the combine results.
What makes you deduce that time? is it the eye test of his tape? I know he ran a 4.41 coming out of highschool, but I haven't seen anything to suggest mid 4.3s. It looks like he's gained muscle, which usually makes it a task to simply maintain your original speed you had without the additional mass. Just curious if there was some inside info I was missing.

PNWHawk, do you honestly think he could have "easily" hit 4.34 - that is serious speed. A 4.34 time would be tied for 5th best out of all the RBs that attended the combine...in the last 12 years (that's 5th out of approx 400 RBs tested).

IF he would of ran a 4.34, I think Rojo would have vaulted to 1.03ish across most boards I imagine (not mine personally, but most within the community). Ppl are attracted to speed for RBs, it's hard not to be. It also would have made the JC comps more relevant imo (JC ran a 4.38). For ref, I think the 1.04 pick is fine for Rojo if he's one of your guys, he's not mine, but I can see the argument.

Anyways, back to Chubb...
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RB: Gurley, Sony, Ingram, Lamar Miller, Love
WR: Julio, AJG, Hilton, Adams, Gallup, Hollywood Brown, Dede, Washington, Renfrow, Pettis
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby PNWHawkfan » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:56 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:50 am
thebeast wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:33 am
That’s cool. I was happy to get him at 1.07, but I also drafted Rojo at 1.04. I wonder where Rojo would rank with the community if he ran a 4.34 at the combine? I believe that is closer to his actual speed than the combine results.
What makes you deduce that time? is it the eye test of his tape? I know he ran a 4.41 coming out of highschool, but I haven't seen anything to suggest mid 4.3s. It looks like he's gained muscle, which usually makes it a task to simply maintain your original speed you had without the additional mass. Just curious if there was some inside info I was missing.

PNWHawk, do you honestly think he could have "easily" hit 4.34 - that is serious speed. A 4.34 time would be tied for 5th best out of all the RBs that attended the combine...in the last 12 years (that's 5th out of approx 400 RBs tested).

IF he would of ran a 4.34, I think Rojo would have vaulted to 1.03ish across most boards I imagine (not mine personally, but most within the community). Ppl are attracted to speed for RBs, it's hard not to be. It also would have made the JC comps more relevant imo (JC ran a 4.38). For ref, I think the 1.04 pick is fine for Rojo if he's one of your guys.

Anyways, back to Chubb...
All right not easily. but I really thought he could hit 4.3s whether that was 4.34 or 4.38. And I do like ROJO alot. I just like Chubb alot more. I believe he can and will catch passes if given the chance in cleveland. I had Guice/Chubb at 1.2 or 1.3. I had Sony at 1.4. I had Penny over ROJO in the end. Honestly, I don't feel like any of these guys are going to have a bad career in the NFL.
12 Team 38 man Rosters PPR league QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR-TE/Flex and IDP
QB- Matt Ryan, Jared Goff
RB- Nick Chubb , L. Bell , D. Singletary , Austin Ekelar, Chase Edmonds, Jamall Williams
WR-D. Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, AJ Brown, C. Ridley, AJ Green, Corey Davis, Allan Lazard
TE- Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper

IDP- 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 2 FLEX 1 PT per Tackle, .5 PT per Assist. 3 Bonus for every 3 Tackles, 6 PT per sack
DT/DE-Aaron Donald, DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Derrek Barnett,
LB- Luke Kueckly, Darius Leonard , Corey littleton, Devin Bush, Jaylon Smith, CJ Mosely, Telvin Smith
DB- Landon Collins, Tyrann Matheiu, Jesse Bates

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby zeeshan2 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:10 pm

Duke Johnson just got a 3 year extension

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1004814888135512066

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Phaded » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:55 pm

lol.
Actions speak louder than words.
Duke extension should clarify things.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby spotxc » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:00 pm

If they plan on getting rid of Hyde, it would be smart of them to sign him now for a backup/step up role while the price is only going up from here. Plus they know what they have in him..My opinion is it is an intelligent security sign deal that can also pay off if chubb falters

Think this is worse for duke* than chubb

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Valhalla » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:05 pm

Ahh...was thinking Duke would be one of the top free agent rbs next offseason. Not to be.
Wise move by the Browns imo


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