Dynasty League Football Forum

How much do you use it to re-evaluate your pre-draft rankings? Not just your own rankings, but how you play the rookie draft board.

It has to factor in to your rankings to some degree. If you ignore draft capital than you are harming your own rankings.

Bot101 wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:13 pm It has to factor in to your rankings to some degree. If you ignore draft capital than you are harming your own rankings.

Agreed. I had Penny in a tier with a few others, including Guice, so he moved up slightly for me, but didn't really change my opinion of him as a player. It more confirmed that he belonged there, and I may have been discounting him due to where he went to school. Draft capital sort of confirmed my view that he was one of the top backs in the class.

Draft capital for me is key. It's the same philosophy like "follow the money". If a TE gets payed a ton of money like Burton, it pretty likely he will be involed heavely. It's doesn't show talent, but the expected amount of utilization. But you have to consider some other factor like speacial team involvement (Pettits gets drafted not only for beeing a WR, so for fantasy I would be cautious), blocking value (TEs) abd off field issues (Mixon, f.e.).

So draft capital has quiet en impact on my rankings.

It doesn't factor a ton for me in the rookie draft. Of course, guys that get taken in the first round have a better chance at seeing the field and performing well. So, I might move a guy up or down a few spots depending on when they are drafted. I use it to help confirm my rankings though. If I have a guy ranked really low and they get taken in the first or second round, it tells me that I need to go back and reevaluate the prospect. That being said, I tend to put more into landing spot than when they are drafted. Competition around a player is often more important to fantasy relevance than draft capital.

I do use draft capital a lot more once their rookie season is over. Draft Capital comes in handy for figuring out who will stick in the league even though they didn't have a great first season or two. Guys that get drafted higher always get a 2nd shot and often times they get a 3rd or 4th shot at making a team.

Penny is the perfect example. His draft capital vaulted him up and DD's running back report cemented him next to Guice. Now I can't decide who to take and my draft is June 1st.

Let's be real. Everyone uses draft capital HEAVILY in their rankings. It's just that before the draft we use it as expected draft capital. We see these mocks and that helps assign player values to us. We don't coincidentally like prospects the same as the NFL, we like them because the NFL does.

It plays a massive role. Maybe not so much so on the higher drafted guys, but definitely guys who "fall" in the draft process. Prime example: Isaiah Ford. Last year he was a high 2nd round pick in pre-draft mocks. Then goes 7th round in the draft, and is essentially off my board. Same with ESB this year. If guys I like fall through the draft or get drafted way later than I anticipated, then they are basically off my board unless they fall really far in rookie drafts.

When it comes to the first 100 picks though, I don't let that affect me too much. For example, Guice/Chubb/Penny primarily stay the same to me. Even though Kerryon went ahead of Guice/Freeman, I still prefer the latter two by miles ahead of Kerryon.

When a player I like gets "over" drafted, i.e. Penny 2018, Corey Davis 2017, it just solidifies them for me and makes me like them more really.

Things I look for in a fantasy player: talent and opportunity. Draft capital is a measure of both. Earlier picked players are thought to be more talented by the team that drafted them, and earlier picked players will get more opportunity earlier in their careers.

I look to confirm my pre-draft rankings which is based only off of talent. If a player goes where I think they should go, then they stay put. If they go earlier or later, you have to reevaluate what you may have missed. If you agree with the team that drafted the player, then you adjust accordingly. If you don't, then you put an asterisk by their name and take note of how their ADP changes to see when you can get away with drafting them without having to reach.

Draft capital is everything. Why invest in a player for your fantasy team that real NFL teams don't want to invest in?

Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule. But I don't place a lot of faith in players drafted after the 4th round. There are way too many misses as compared to hits.

So I have been saying Guice is not my 1.02 for a while around here (and never was pre or post draft), but the argument got me to thinking about it. Guice was the 7th RB off the board, and I believe at least 5 WR's went ahead of him as well, (TE's and QB's I will leave out of it, but there were a bunch as well). As RB's and WR's are the main producers in standard PPR, 1 QB leagues, Guice was the 13th RB/WR off the board by my count, and I am by no means suggesting all these players should be taken ahead of him. I personally have him slotted in at 1.04.

My question is this. In recent memory, can anyone recall such a discrepancy between where a player was drafted in the NFL draft to where he was being taken in rookie drafts (at the top of the first round of FF drafts) I'm not talking about one random owner in 1 league, but an overwhelming consensus like what is being shown with Guice going where he is @ 1.02.

I still remember Daniel Thomas going higher in rookie drafts than he should've.

Same with Bishop Sankey.

So yeah it is definitely a factor, but I keep an open mind that guys like Penny could get Sankey'd.

jordanzs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:02 pm I still remember Daniel Thomas going higher in rookie drafts than he should've.

Same with Bishop Sankey.

So yeah it is definitely a factor, but I keep an open mind that guys like Penny could get Sankey'd.

Sankey was the first RB off the board in the 2nd round, though. I'm talking more at the top of the first round (D Thomas was not that). I just can't recall this type of situation, and am curious if others do.

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:54 pm So I have been saying Guice is not my 1.02 for a while around here (and never was pre or post draft), but the argument got me to thinking about it. Guice was the 7th RB off the board, and I believe at least 5 WR's went ahead of him as well, (TE's and QB's I will leave out of it, but there were a bunch as well). As RB's and WR's are the main producers in standard PPR, 1 QB leagues, Guice was the 13th RB/WR off the board by my count, and I am by no means suggesting all these players should be taken ahead of him. I personally have him slotted in at 1.04.

My question is this. In recent memory, can anyone recall such a discrepancy between where a player was drafted in the NFL draft to where he was being taken in rookie drafts (at the top of the first round of FF drafts) I'm not talking about one random owner in 1 league, but an overwhelming consensus like what is being shown with Guice going where he is @ 1.02.

I would say Mixon and Dalvin would come close, both were going between 1.02-1.04 in most draft I saw, and ahead of McCaffrey in alot even though he went top 10. But you have a good point, I can't really think of to many others and not to the degree of Guice (consensus 1.02) as apposed to Mixon/cook who were just in that range but not consensus.

it matters but should not be taken as the gospel - for me it depends on who drafted the player more than where they drafted them as until the NFL gets better at picking players it should be taken with a grain of salt . Sometimes falling in the draft is just the factor that pisses players off to the extent they hate everyone and make it a mission to prove they were wronged . I really like to hear a players reaction to being drafted ... that raw emotion is telling to me about what his future motivation can/will be It also helps with the current CBA guys are not gifted multi- generational wealth before they ever put on the sunday jersey the 1st time . Saving the franchises from career check cashers like jamarcus russell and sam bradford winning Powerball like sums for what they did on saturdays as opposed to sundays .