Draft Capital

[FantasyFreak]

So I decided to do a little research, and it seems that high draft capital does lead to high FF production, at least in the "elite" tier of scoring. Standard PPR scoring.

Last year:

Number of RB 1's drafted in the top 3 rounds of the NFL draft: 12

Number of WR1's drafted in the top 3 rounds of the NFL draft: 9

Number of QB1's drafted in the top 3 rounds of the NFL draft: 10

Number of TE1's drafted in the top 3 round of the NFL draft: 9

[Phaded]

We all like to scout and we all have the guys we do and do not like.
However - if we're being real, the guys who do it for an actual career are substantially better at it than us. So, draft capital absolutely plays a factor and one could argue it is the single biggest factor.

Now - I think it depends on how you're looking at it. If you're looking at like pick 25 versus pick 45, I don't think that is a huge difference. I also don't care if someone is top 10 versus in the 20s, to be completely honest unless the top 10 guy is a clear bonafide stud. But when you compare a day 1 or 2 (rounds 1-3) to a day 3 pick (rounds 4-7); there is generally going to be a huge difference.

[FantasyFreak]

We all like to scout and we all have the guys we do and do not like.
However - if we're being real, the guys who do it for an actual career are substantially better at it than us. So, draft capital absolutely plays a factor and one could argue it is the single biggest factor.

Now - I think it depends on how you're looking at it. If you're looking at like pick 25 versus pick 45, I don't think that is a huge difference. I also don't care if someone is top 10 versus in the 20s, to be completely honest unless the top 10 guy is a clear bonafide stud. But when you compare a day 1 or 2 (rounds 1-3) to a day 3 pick (rounds 4-7); there is generally going to be a huge difference.

Right. Like Gurley coming out at 10. We all knew, same with Zeke, it was universally known. OBJ was 12th, Evans 7th an Watkins 4th. Nobody knew it would be OBJ, who would be the best, but they were all relatively close in draft capital. You make good points.

[_yeti]

We all like to scout and we all have the guys we do and do not like.
However - if we're being real, the guys who do it for an actual career are substantially better at it than us. So, draft capital absolutely plays a factor and one could argue it is the single biggest factor.

Now - I think it depends on how you're looking at it. If you're looking at like pick 25 versus pick 45, I don't think that is a huge difference. I also don't care if someone is top 10 versus in the 20s, to be completely honest unless the top 10 guy is a clear bonafide stud. But when you compare a day 1 or 2 (rounds 1-3) to a day 3 pick (rounds 4-7); there is generally going to be a huge difference.

Not withstanding specific situations such as the Carson debate, I agree with this 100%. Also, the Carson debate goes into the territory of 2nd year player vs rookie. Only mention that bc i know it was the impetus for this thread from FF.

Top 10 vs 20 moves the needle for me a little further, but more so with RBs than WRs bc it is such a huge jump to go top 10 for an RB

[FantasyFreak]

We all like to scout and we all have the guys we do and do not like.
However - if we're being real, the guys who do it for an actual career are substantially better at it than us. So, draft capital absolutely plays a factor and one could argue it is the single biggest factor.

Now - I think it depends on how you're looking at it. If you're looking at like pick 25 versus pick 45, I don't think that is a huge difference. I also don't care if someone is top 10 versus in the 20s, to be completely honest unless the top 10 guy is a clear bonafide stud. But when you compare a day 1 or 2 (rounds 1-3) to a day 3 pick (rounds 4-7); there is generally going to be a huge difference.

Not withstanding specific situations such as the Carson debate, I agree with this 100%. Also, the Carson debate goes into the territory of 2nd year player vs rookie. Only mention that bc i know it was the impetus for this thread from FF.

Top 10 vs 20 moves the needle for me a little further, but more so with RBs than WRs bc it is such a huge jump to go top 10 for an RB

I actually started this thread a while back, and it had to do with post vs pre NFL draft, and how we would move guys up or down. It was specific to Penny being moved up in a tier of guys I had him very close with in my evaluation. Actually looked into the stats today because of AB's comment about being a 5th round pick and going to the cover of Madden, thought I'd see how many guys like him (being late round picks) became anything, and how it related to FF. Then I remembered this thread.

To the point about Carson, I would argue that in the case of a 7th round pick who played 4 games, his draft status is still very much something he needs to get over. If he has a few bad plays or games, his leash is likely to be a lot shorter, and not specifically with Carson, but for any late round pick who has not yet removed the draft status from his name. Now he can still do this, but it will take a lot more than what he has done to this point, and he now has the added challenge of a first round pick coming in to the mix. Guys like AB, at a certain point, aren't 5th round picks anymore, they have usurped that status. Guys like Carson, have not. Right or wrong, high picks tend to get more chances than guys that don't. Melving Gordon, being a good example, Abdullah had 3 years of doing nothing before they finally decided to move on. It does insulate players slightly, at least giving them more opportunities.

PS. Impetus. Great word, brainiac. . Seriously, though. Not often seen, but appreciated.