Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

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BigBawseRoss
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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby BigBawseRoss » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:47 am

maybe we need a thread of in forum season bets?? that would be fun.

maybe saying "wont be half" was harsh, should have said "closer to half"

I'm a steeler fan and a juju fan, i just think he benefited heavily from Bryant being in the dog house, a 97 yard TD (cant discredit big plays but still was a bit fluky and accounted for 1/10th of his season total), and a big final game where AB was hurt and could not be relied on heavily (juju got 9 grabs when he had been averaging more like 4-5 a game)

i just think its more likely you see what he usually did, 3-5 grabs and <75 yards (10 of 14 games). With an occasional TD of course.
Last edited by BigBawseRoss on Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
J Allen , Herbert, Rivers
Kamara, B Hill, Akers,McNichols, Dillon, Cohen, McCoy
K Allen, Hopkins,McLaurin, AROB M Williams,MVS
Ebron Graham, Njoku, Irv

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Teddy B, Dak
Chubb,Mixon, D Henry,Coleman, D Harris, Burkhead, Mostert, wilson jr
Hopkins, K Allen, M Evans,AROB, C Davis, Watkins, Edleman, Higgins
Ertz, Gronk, Fant, everett, albert o


team 3
14 team sf, even scoring idp to offense (rb scores highly too)
Baker, Wentz, Foles, K Allen
Kamara, Henry, Chubb, Bell, Murray, Coleman
M Thomas, K Allen, M Evans, JuJu, Cooper, Watkins
Hurst, Gronk, Ebron, Everett
Payne/Onyemata
Campbell, Ogbah, J Allen, Clowney, Armstead
Martinez, J Smith, Z Smith, Jack, Judon, C Jones (IR)
Alexander, Dean, Ward
Edmonds, Harris, Joseph, Delpit (IR)

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:50 am

Since 2013 - AB has at least doubled the yardage of the second receiver on the team, so I'm not sure it as far fetched as suggested.
He was on pace to do it last year as well - but then he got hurt, unfortunately.

The second wide receiver in Pittsburgh never lives up to "expectations" since the AB era took off. Be careful of expecting a lot while AB is there.

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby JFever » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:06 am

I admit, I was surpised last year by juju's quick success. I along with many others didn't see it coming so quickly. Anyway, I watched Juju and I saw a crazy intense competitor. I saw a player who possesses the ability for big plays, the consistency to be relied upon, and the ability to produce both in the real game of football in the NFL and for our fantasy scoring purposes. I saw tough blocking, good hands, good routes, good speed and good general NFL game awareness. I'm not at all saying he is at AB's level. I am saying that some on this forum are minimizing what the 20 year old was able to do. I don't understand why? Did we not watch the same kid? Do you not think he'll continue on a normal progression of learning? Seems odd to minimize / not recognize the success of a 20 year old wr.
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* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:15 pm

I think the Pitt reliance on AB, as spectacular as he is, is unhealthy.

I expect AB's numbers to come down slightly and Juju to put up 65-75% of AB's numbers in a more balanced attack. This year it might be on the lower end ~65%, next year ~70-75%
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Herbert, Carr
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, David Johnson, R. Penny
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, J. Smith-Schuster, P. Williams, D. Mims
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas, I. Smith Jr, D. Schultz

K (1): Y Koo

DB (1): J. Adams
LB (1): B. Martinez
DL (1): D. Lawrence

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:22 pm

JFever wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:06 am
I admit, I was surpised last year by juju's quick success. I along with many others didn't see it coming so quickly. Anyway, I watched Juju and I saw a crazy intense competitor. I saw a player who possesses the ability for big plays, the consistency to be relied upon, and the ability to produce both in the real game of football in the NFL and for our fantasy scoring purposes. I saw tough blocking, good hands, good routes, good speed and good general NFL game awareness. I'm not at all saying he is at AB's level. I am saying that some on this forum are minimizing what the 20 year old was able to do. I don't understand why? Did we not watch the same kid? Do you not think he'll continue on a normal progression of learning? Seems odd to minimize / not recognize the success of a 20 year old wr.
I think it is tough to look at the targets and expect that efficiency again. I really like JuJu, but I expect his ceiling to be capped as long as AB and Bell are there. Still, nothing wrong with that, as he is so young, but I don't think WR1 numbers are possible for years, yet. He may be Rudolph's go to guy down the road, but he better not be one of your main options at receiver for the next few years.

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby kamihamster » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:33 pm

The Steelers have a knack for drafting WRs it seems, and many times they continue to find success once they leave Pitt. Juju looked pretty special to me last year, and that is coming from a guy that didn't want him to succeed. I am a Martavis truther and wanted MB to be the number 2 there. I only got Juju because he fell to me in the 3rd. So I was very pleased to see him succeed when it seemed MB couldn't get things going after being suspended a year. He looked pretty darn good when AB went down at the end of the season which gives me hope that he's not a number 2 benefiting from AB drawing extra attention, but that he actually has the skill to be a true #1.

I think the Steelers want to use 3 WRs often and Washing will be the third. AB and Juju can be used all over the field, and Washington will probably be used as the deep threat. I think MB was the better deep threat, but I get that he had off field issues. Washington I also see being used for some gimmick plays. Put me down for 55/650/3 on 90 targets for Washington and 70/1020/9 on 110 targets for Juju.
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby Hottoddies » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:58 pm

BigBawseRoss wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:47 am
maybe we need a thread of in forum season bets?? that would be fun.

maybe saying "wont be half" was harsh, should have said "closer to half"

I'm a steeler fan and a juju fan, i just think he benefited heavily from Bryant being in the dog house, a 97 yard TD (cant discredit big plays but still was a bit fluky and accounted for 1/10th of his season total), and a big final game where AB was hurt and could not be relied on heavily (juju got 9 grabs when he had been averaging more like 4-5 a game)

i just think its more likely you see what he usually did, 3-5 grabs and <75 yards (10 of 14 games). With an occasional TD of course.
I would say that this assessment is on the money. I would bet that Juju's numbers will be closer to Washington's than Brown's this year.
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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby BigBawseRoss » Tue May 01, 2018 6:10 am

kamihamster wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:33 pm
The Steelers have a knack for drafting WRs it seems, and many times they continue to find success once they leave Pitt. Juju looked pretty special to me last year, and that is coming from a guy that didn't want him to succeed. I am a Martavis truther and wanted MB to be the number 2 there. I only got Juju because he fell to me in the 3rd. So I was very pleased to see him succeed when it seemed MB couldn't get things going after being suspended a year. He looked pretty darn good when AB went down at the end of the season which gives me hope that he's not a number 2 benefiting from AB drawing extra attention, but that he actually has the skill to be a true #1.

I think the Steelers want to use 3 WRs often and Washing will be the third. AB and Juju can be used all over the field, and Washington will probably be used as the deep threat. I think MB was the better deep threat, but I get that he had off field issues. Washington I also see being used for some gimmick plays. Put me down for 55/650/3 on 90 targets for Washington and 70/1020/9 on 110 targets for Juju.
that target share alone cant be feasible. over the past 3 seasons Ben averages 500 attempts, AB gets 150+targets, Bell gets 100+, if juju and washington combine for 200 that leaves 50 passes to the rest of the team for the entire season, not gonna happen that way. thats why i am pumping the brakes on juju... he would need that 110 targets to be the high end WR2 everyone is hoping for.

Last year juju got 79 and bryant got 84...i expect a similar split between juju and washington with maybe juju getting more like 90 and washington closer to 70. but he will have a hard time even pushing 100+ unless injury happens or scheme changes to feature him (could happen haley is gone, things could change a lot and nobody will know till we see it)
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
J Allen , Herbert, Rivers
Kamara, B Hill, Akers,McNichols, Dillon, Cohen, McCoy
K Allen, Hopkins,McLaurin, AROB M Williams,MVS
Ebron Graham, Njoku, Irv

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Teddy B, Dak
Chubb,Mixon, D Henry,Coleman, D Harris, Burkhead, Mostert, wilson jr
Hopkins, K Allen, M Evans,AROB, C Davis, Watkins, Edleman, Higgins
Ertz, Gronk, Fant, everett, albert o


team 3
14 team sf, even scoring idp to offense (rb scores highly too)
Baker, Wentz, Foles, K Allen
Kamara, Henry, Chubb, Bell, Murray, Coleman
M Thomas, K Allen, M Evans, JuJu, Cooper, Watkins
Hurst, Gronk, Ebron, Everett
Payne/Onyemata
Campbell, Ogbah, J Allen, Clowney, Armstead
Martinez, J Smith, Z Smith, Jack, Judon, C Jones (IR)
Alexander, Dean, Ward
Edmonds, Harris, Joseph, Delpit (IR)

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby jetsfan5757 » Tue May 01, 2018 7:33 pm

So do those who think Juju can't get over 100 targets because of Pitt's system, because of the distribution of targets in the past, think that Juju is better than past Pitt WR2's?

If so, doesn't that make you think they might adjust the target distribution a bit at least? 15 more balls Juju's way is 1 a week. 1.5 more targets a week and he's pretty much up to 110 targets... An injury to Brown or Bell, even for just a few el weeks, and I think he gets at least 110 targets...
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Herbert, Carr
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, David Johnson, R. Penny
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, J. Smith-Schuster, P. Williams, D. Mims
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas, I. Smith Jr, D. Schultz

K (1): Y Koo

DB (1): J. Adams
LB (1): B. Martinez
DL (1): D. Lawrence

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby JFever » Tue May 01, 2018 9:18 pm

Stop being so logical. Lol.
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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby clarion contrarion » Wed May 02, 2018 2:48 am

I think juju will be closer to 120 targets including his breakout game vs detroit in avg 7.5 targets a game his efficiency will likely drop from nearly 75% to the tune of 15.8 YPR - to I guess closer to 60% 13+ ypc gets him 72 balls for 950 and 8tds .
He did miss two games- 1 with a balky hamstring IIRC & 1 suspended for smoking vontaze burfict .
Washington will be close to 60 targets for 35 catches and 500 yards and 4tds imho!.
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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby kamihamster » Wed May 02, 2018 10:00 am

BigBawseRoss wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 6:10 am
kamihamster wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:33 pm
The Steelers have a knack for drafting WRs it seems, and many times they continue to find success once they leave Pitt. Juju looked pretty special to me last year, and that is coming from a guy that didn't want him to succeed. I am a Martavis truther and wanted MB to be the number 2 there. I only got Juju because he fell to me in the 3rd. So I was very pleased to see him succeed when it seemed MB couldn't get things going after being suspended a year. He looked pretty darn good when AB went down at the end of the season which gives me hope that he's not a number 2 benefiting from AB drawing extra attention, but that he actually has the skill to be a true #1.

I think the Steelers want to use 3 WRs often and Washing will be the third. AB and Juju can be used all over the field, and Washington will probably be used as the deep threat. I think MB was the better deep threat, but I get that he had off field issues. Washington I also see being used for some gimmick plays. Put me down for 55/650/3 on 90 targets for Washington and 70/1020/9 on 110 targets for Juju.
that target share alone cant be feasible. over the past 3 seasons Ben averages 500 attempts, AB gets 150+targets, Bell gets 100+, if juju and washington combine for 200 that leaves 50 passes to the rest of the team for the entire season, not gonna happen that way. thats why i am pumping the brakes on juju... he would need that 110 targets to be the high end WR2 everyone is hoping for.

Last year juju got 79 and bryant got 84...i expect a similar split between juju and washington with maybe juju getting more like 90 and washington closer to 70. but he will have a hard time even pushing 100+ unless injury happens or scheme changes to feature him (could happen haley is gone, things could change a lot and nobody will know till we see it)
I agree with with others have said which shows in my projections. Assuming health of course. If Juju progresses in his development I can see him earning more targets. AB and Bell could stand to lose a few and still put up their big numbers. Juju was out for two games so that will also increase his targets if he stays healthy and doesn't blow anyone up. And lastly, Juju wasn't the #2 WR for a few games in the beginning of the season when MB was still considered the #2. He will start the season there and should get his slice of the pie as such.
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Juju status- MB leaving and Washington coming

Postby rschroeder1 » Wed May 02, 2018 11:29 am

Count me a skeptic on some of these arguments regarding Washington. He's an unknown commodity at the pro level, and rookies rarely make a splash in their first year. None of us can predict the future, but the default assumption should be expecting more of the norm rather than something special in a WR rookie year.

Likewise, the arguments that the Steelers can't support fantasy-wise a receiver beyond the points generated by AB and Bell...if that's true, that's fine, but it's odd to me that such logic limits Juju but somehow lends itself to a strong rookie campaign for Washington. Seems diametrically opposite to me.


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