Josh Allen

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Bad News Barrett
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Josh Allen

Postby Bad News Barrett » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:19 am

First, I apologize if Allen has been discussed in prior threads

Second, I don’t see what he has done to warrant being a top selection in the draft besides having a strong arm. I also haven’t spoken with anyone in the dynasty community that thinks positively of Allen. What is it that we are missing that the “pros” are seeing? His accuracy is atrocious, and in my opinion, accuracy can’t be taught. As a Bills fan, I’ve seen the “big arm” QBs (Losman, Manuel) come in and fall on their face.

I guess where I’m getting, someone tell me why he’s a top five pick and why I should throw a remote at my tv if the Bills trade up and select the guy (or for anyone that feels the same for their team)
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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:43 am

I think if he sits 1-2 years he could be the best QB in this class ... if he plays this year he'll be a disaster.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, I. Simmons, R. Foster, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, V. Joseph, T.J. Edwards, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Eguavoen (taxi), S. Ebukam, M. Jefferson, D. Cole, K. Beckwith
|CB| S. Gilmore, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| 2.05, 3.11, 5.15 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1 (x2), #2, #3
|2022 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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Jason3123
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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Jason3123 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:40 am

Will be awful. Hoping Browns take him so they can add another name to their long miserable list of failure and continue disappointing all the suckers who continue to follow them.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Servo » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:19 am

Allen reminds me of Kizer, and what a coincidence they share similar traits, being mocked to the same team and both had poor accuracy in college. Remember that Kizer was being touted as someone that could have the upside of Big Ben.

For the situation/team Kizer was drafted into, I think I agreed with playing him from Week 1 but Hue Jackson is such a bum of a head coach that along with Kizer's poor game mistakes it torpedoed any hopes of him developing into that "Big Ben".

I think Allen would share a similar fate if he was forced into the limelight today, and in all honesty, would probably be much worse than Kizer. To me, the only way I'm drafting him in my 2QB or SF leagues is if some decent/contending team traded up and nabbed him to sit behind their incumbent like Pat Mahomes last year.
Trucking Through The Fantasy Mud, One Year At a Time.

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2017 - Champion
2018 - Champion
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Mahomes, Stafford, Lock, Mariota, Tyrod
D. Williams, Mostert, Kerryon, B. Hill, Hines, Love, Laird
Hopkins, Allen, Thielen, Cooks, Fitz, Perriman, Ross
Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:42 am

Scouts see a smart kid with a huge arm who comes off as a leader/good character, so many have become enamored. He has A LOT of work to do though. He is decent throwing to his first read, but once he has to go to a secondary read or reset his feet, his accuracy, which is already questionable, usually goes in the toilet. He has typically been a pretty good decision maker, so he has that going for him, but I agree with the previous post, accuracy rarely changes (not impossible though, Stafford is the first example that comes to mind, but there are A LOT more Hackenbergs out there than Staffords). Even looking at charting of his throws to open receivers (a step or more separation), his accuracy/ball placement is at the bottom of this class.

I'm not touching him unless he falls, and I would love for him to sit a year or two with a good qb coach and vet qb in front of him. He would be a perfect day 2 developmental guy, but that isnt happening and he will likely be thrown into action before he is ready.
16tm PPR, Superflex, 1.5 TE prem, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is current rookies and devy (only NFL draft-eligible players for the following year) combined

QB: T Lawrence (DEVY), J Fields (DEVY), Grier
RB: Etienne (DEVY), C Hubbard (DEVY), N Harris (DEVY), K Brooks (DEVY), B Scott, B Scarbrough, B Love
WR: C Lamb, T McLaurin, J Chase (DEVY), R Moore (DEVY), J Waddle (DEVY), T Higgins, T Wallace (DEVY), Isabella, Pettis, A Tate, Bisi, G Ward
TE: H Hurst, Sternberger, Firsker, B Jordan(DEVY), C Kolar(DEVY)
2021 Picks: three 1sts, one 2nd

Safe L 287 rebuild: 12tm PPR, Superflex, 2.0 TE prem;
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 2 Flex

QB: Wentz, Mayfield
RB: Jacobs, Conner, Henderson, Cohen, Bowden, M Brown, Love, Scarbrough, D Anderson
WR: McLaurin, M Brown, Reagor, Higgins, Shenault, Diontae, A Miller, H Butler, Ward, C Johnson
TE: Andrews, Hock, Moreau, Olsen
2021 Picks: four 1sts, three 2nds

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:00 am

he's not even that inaccurate. when you watch the tape the numbers are skewed a bit. putting the ball where only your receiver can catch it is a good trait. it's not his fault his wrs cannot create separation. so if it's incomplete rather than picked, that's a win. big arm, athletic, smart, good teammate, big hands.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby JFever » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:09 am

Jason3123 wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:40 am
Will be awful. Hoping Browns take him so they can add another name to their long miserable list of failure and continue disappointing all the suckers who continue to follow them.
Ouch, kinda harsh. But, still kinda funny. :lol: I feel bad for Cleveland fans. I think the organization has been one of the most inept of nearly all professional sports for quite some time. I do however think they are slowly moving in the right direction and I actually find myself rooting for them to turn things around. Because of that, I hope the Giants or Jets draft Josh Allen. There, he could sit behind Eli or whomever with NYJ for a bit, then, assuming he's put some things together, He could have a decent career.

Time will tell.
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Re: Josh Allen

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:38 am

ImaRounder wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:00 am
he's not even that inaccurate. when you watch the tape the numbers are skewed a bit. putting the ball where only your receiver can catch it is a good trait. it's not his fault his wrs cannot create separation. so if it's incomplete rather than picked, that's a win. big arm, athletic, smart, good teammate, big hands.
He is that inaccurate though and the argument about his lack of weapons/style of offense only compensate for a portion of his accuracy% and less his apologists want to think. Even in 2016, when he had several players on that offense in the NFL last year(Hill, Hollister, Gentry, Roullier), the accuracy% was the same.

Again, even isolating the throws in which his wrs DID get a step or more separation over the last two years, the numbers show his accuracy and ball placement is still at the bottom of the class. According to PFF, against the top 10 qbs in the class, he ranks 9th of 10 in acc% (which accounts for drops, batted passes, and throw aways) when his wrs are open (2 or more steps separation) and 7th out of 10 when his wrs had a step of separation. He also ranked 8th out of the ten qbs in percentage of perfectly placed passes and 9th out of ten on passes hitting the frame of his wr (basically the next best position).

Also, looking at this accuracy% with a clean pocket, his number is around 4% lower than this classes' average (out of the top 38 qbs in this class).

Even looking at his acc% by level, he is either at the class average (again, of the top 38 qbs of the class) or well below it at every level (10-19 yard throws are the only level he was not below average, and he was AT the average mark for this class)

I believe it is a myth his accuracy issues are a result of his offensive system or weapons. And again, this isn't to say he CAN'T improve, and if he does, he very likely would be the top qb in the class because I do believe he makes good decisions and he obviously has a huge arm. However, there are A LOT more qbs who's accuracy never improves than the outliers who do.
16tm PPR, Superflex, 1.5 TE prem, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is current rookies and devy (only NFL draft-eligible players for the following year) combined

QB: T Lawrence (DEVY), J Fields (DEVY), Grier
RB: Etienne (DEVY), C Hubbard (DEVY), N Harris (DEVY), K Brooks (DEVY), B Scott, B Scarbrough, B Love
WR: C Lamb, T McLaurin, J Chase (DEVY), R Moore (DEVY), J Waddle (DEVY), T Higgins, T Wallace (DEVY), Isabella, Pettis, A Tate, Bisi, G Ward
TE: H Hurst, Sternberger, Firsker, B Jordan(DEVY), C Kolar(DEVY)
2021 Picks: three 1sts, one 2nd

Safe L 287 rebuild: 12tm PPR, Superflex, 2.0 TE prem;
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 2 Flex

QB: Wentz, Mayfield
RB: Jacobs, Conner, Henderson, Cohen, Bowden, M Brown, Love, Scarbrough, D Anderson
WR: McLaurin, M Brown, Reagor, Higgins, Shenault, Diontae, A Miller, H Butler, Ward, C Johnson
TE: Andrews, Hock, Moreau, Olsen
2021 Picks: four 1sts, three 2nds

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:41 am

Also, I think there is a chance he could be decently successful even if his accuracy never improves consistently, because he is smart, athletic and has that cannon for an arm, but it would require the right scheme fit.
16tm PPR, Superflex, 1.5 TE prem, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is current rookies and devy (only NFL draft-eligible players for the following year) combined

QB: T Lawrence (DEVY), J Fields (DEVY), Grier
RB: Etienne (DEVY), C Hubbard (DEVY), N Harris (DEVY), K Brooks (DEVY), B Scott, B Scarbrough, B Love
WR: C Lamb, T McLaurin, J Chase (DEVY), R Moore (DEVY), J Waddle (DEVY), T Higgins, T Wallace (DEVY), Isabella, Pettis, A Tate, Bisi, G Ward
TE: H Hurst, Sternberger, Firsker, B Jordan(DEVY), C Kolar(DEVY)
2021 Picks: three 1sts, one 2nd

Safe L 287 rebuild: 12tm PPR, Superflex, 2.0 TE prem;
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 2 Flex

QB: Wentz, Mayfield
RB: Jacobs, Conner, Henderson, Cohen, Bowden, M Brown, Love, Scarbrough, D Anderson
WR: McLaurin, M Brown, Reagor, Higgins, Shenault, Diontae, A Miller, H Butler, Ward, C Johnson
TE: Andrews, Hock, Moreau, Olsen
2021 Picks: four 1sts, three 2nds

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ascherb » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:31 am

He's the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft, and if a team determines that they think it's reasonable to assume the kid will develop, that's why you see them get drafted higher than their college tape necessarily warrants at the time.

Right now, today, Darnold or Rosen are probably better QBs than Allen. But with Allen's physical tools and the fact that he didn't have much talent around him in college, the upside is there.

On a separate note: I always sort of chuckle when the "sit the rookie QB for a year and let him develop" line regarding these high draft picks.

How much actual development can take place if you aren't playing? There are so few reps available to the backup and #3 QBs during the season, that I don't think the "redshirt" year is really even about actual development. How many of the game's great QB's (who were drafted early with the intention of them one day being the starter) really followed this model anyway? Rodgers... is that it? Maholmes, I guess, but the jury is still out on him. Seems like in recent years, this doesn't really happen.
14-team Dynasty - .5PPR (QB/2RB/3WR/Flex/TE/K/D)

QB - Luck/Stafford/Bradford
RB - Gurley/DJohnson/Hyde/Ingram/DMartin/Smallwood
WR - OBJ/Julio/Hopkins/KAllen/ARob/Cooks/DGB/Coates/Gordon
TE - Gronk/Ebron

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:37 am

ascherb wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:31 am
He's the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft, and if a team determines that they think it's reasonable to assume the kid will develop, that's why you see them get drafted higher than their college tape necessarily warrants at the time.

Right now, today, Darnold or Rosen are probably better QBs than Allen. But with Allen's physical tools and the fact that he didn't have much talent around him in college, the upside is there.

On a separate note: I always sort of chuckle when the "sit the rookie QB for a year and let him develop" line regarding these high draft picks.

How much actual development can take place if you aren't playing? There are so few reps available to the backup and #3 QBs during the season, that I don't think the "redshirt" year is really even about actual development. How many of the game's great QB's (who were drafted early with the intention of them one day being the starter) really followed this model anyway? Rodgers... is that it? Maholmes, I guess, but the jury is still out on him. Seems like in recent years, this doesn't really happen.
Disagree with that ... aside from actual practices, which I am sure a team can carve out some meaningful reps, a young QB can learn a lot from a veteran ... how to prepare / film study ... how to make in-game adjustments ... how to notice tendencies ... work ethic ... how to handle the media ... how to take control of a huddle ... etc. etc.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, I. Simmons, R. Foster, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, V. Joseph, T.J. Edwards, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Eguavoen (taxi), S. Ebukam, M. Jefferson, D. Cole, K. Beckwith
|CB| S. Gilmore, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| 2.05, 3.11, 5.15 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1 (x2), #2, #3
|2022 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Lotto4Life » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:41 am

ascherb wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:31 am
How much actual development can take place if you aren't playing?
A lot. 64.3% to be exact, given football (like baseball) is 90% mental and 50% physical.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:44 am

Tom Brady sat 2 years in college before becoming the starting QB at U of Michigan, and then sat another year in the NFL.

Brett Favre was drafted by Atlanta with a coach who said "it would take a plane crash for him to start Favre" before being traded the next year to GB.

Kirk Cousins only started 9 games in his first 3 years.

Carson Palmer sat his 1st year.

Eli Manning sat behind Kurt Warner for 10 games.

Philip Rivers sat behind Drew Brees for 2 years.

Jay Cutler sat for most of 1 season behind Jake Plummer (probably would have for longer if Shanahan hadnt driven Plummer out)

One main reason a QB may need time to develop is not because of his skills but simply to understand the NFL system he is put in. Jared Goff for example was put in a completely different system from College to NFL in Year I and a bunch of people used this to justify he was a bust from the get-go.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Jason3123 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:07 am

Spending the #1 pick on Allen should result in immediate firing with all the evidence out there showing he's the worst possible #1 prospect ever, but it's the NFL, and also the Browns, who both love sucking and ruining their fans lives. Enjoy Cleveland, lol. Suckers.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby JFever » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:09 am

:wtf: :lol:
Truth is found through Evidence.

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* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.


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