Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

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Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby hockeyBjj » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:28 am

Barkley aside of course, there's a part of me that feels the consensus top 4 of Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel (order aside for the 2-4) is being impacted by the amazing 17 class of RBs with Fournette, McCafrey, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, and Hunt all doing work. I'm hearing of Rojo and Penny or Freeman at 5 and 6 even and not a single projected until later half of the 1st round for some drafts

Is this right? Should the likes of Sutton, Ridley, Moore, Washington be higher and mixed in with the Rbs? Should Sutton be in the Guice/Chubb/Michel range? Ridley or Moore as well?

Aside from the 17 year where there were freaking 6 fantasy impact rookie RBs (Cook looked amazing but got hurt, and Mixon hasn't broken out production wise yet but stock remains incredibly high so I count them), there are normally only 2ish rookie RBs that go off like that.

2016 was Zeke and maybe Henry with question marks (Jordan howard was a 2nd rounder in most drafts).

2015 had Gurley and Gordon and somewhat Coleman

2014 was Hyde

It feels like we're basing expectations of the 2018 class off the amazing 2017 RB class. 2017 was known ahead of time for its fantastic RBs and depth there. 2018 has been all about the QBs, but suddenly it's about the RBs as well?
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby maxhyde » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:32 am

Nope. It isn't like they are randomly tossed in there because there are no good options
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby dynastyninja » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:47 am

There just aren't any receivers that look like they're worth it right now. That could change, though. We'll see how the draft goes.

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby skip » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:48 am

I have less of a problem where the class is being valued against itself than where the expectation are from this class relative to current RBs in the NFL.
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby btv802 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:50 am

skip wrote: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:48 am I have less of a problem where the class is being valued against itself than where the expectation are from this class relative to current RBs in the NFL.
I agree with you often Skip. This is how I feel too.
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Servo » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:53 am

DD just recently posted that thread on 2015-2017 WR and how ugly it has been for a lot of those guys.

When you see people winning leagues or going from 0 to Playoffs because of 2nd RD+ RB picks, I think you're going to start seeing people reach for RBs earlier. Now, who knows how long a trend like that will last?

- Howard
- Hunt
- Kamara
- Coleman
- David Johnson
- Maybe even Duke Johnson to some degree?
- Ajayi?
- Henry, maybe?
- Cohen?
- Drake?

All the meanwhile we drafted Kevin White/Perriman/Dorsett/etc. Granted, among those RBs above you'll choose the Prosises/Abdullahs/Dixons/Perkins/Yeldon/Matt Jones

Don't know if it's right but would anyone here think/believe that as of the last few years it may be "easier" to hit on an RB over a WR and now people are more willing to take that risk on?

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Friction » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:20 am

A lot of it is the way the NFL has changed its offensive style and in turn PPR leagues. Using last year as an example, CMC did very little on the ground, but still caught 80 balls. Kamara was great all around, but he looks like the type that will have a great floor with his passing stats, even once his efficiency settles down. Cook did not look overly efficient in his small sample size but got a ton of touches including the all important receptions. I think some of these guys are going to have a short shelf life and some will break down very quick from their workload, but RBs are becoming very valuable assets in the fantasy game again. It is just different from the peak of the workhorse RB that gets 25+ carries and double digits tds on the ground.
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Mjvb5 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:35 am

Servo wrote: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:53 am DD just recently posted that thread on 2015-2017 WR and how ugly it has been for a lot of those guys.

When you see people winning leagues or going from 0 to Playoffs because of 2nd RD+ RB picks, I think you're going to start seeing people reach for RBs earlier. Now, who knows how long a trend like that will last?

- Howard
- Hunt
- Kamara
- Coleman
- David Johnson
- Maybe even Duke Johnson to some degree?
- Ajayi?
- Henry, maybe?
- Cohen?
- Drake?

All the meanwhile we drafted Kevin White/Perriman/Dorsett/etc. Granted, among those RBs above you'll choose the Prosises/Abdullahs/Dixons/Perkins/Yeldon/Matt Jones

Don't know if it's right but would anyone here think/believe that as of the last few years it may be "easier" to hit on an RB over a WR and now people are more willing to take that risk on?
Yeah it’s most definitely easier and borderline safer to draft these rbs, they almost always go up in value as if an rb gets drafted highly chances are he’ll play which leads to an increase in value. Whereas even if a receiver plays to increase in value they actually need to perform very well.

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:38 am

I think there are several things to consider.

As others have mentioned, there are no WRs that jump off the screen as a "must have". There is a high upside guy I like, but likely won't end up drafting because I think there is also a good chance he busts.

Another thing to consider is that the NFL draft has not happened yet. The draft considerably changes the rankings every year. All it takes is a community favourite falling in the draft or a prospect going higher than expected.

Landing spot can change evaluations a lot. I have read many rumblings the Packers will take a WR early and even potentially in the 1st. If someone like Sutton gets paired with ARod for example, his rookie ADP is going to jump up a lot.

It's always fun to rank and speculate, but the NFL Draft changes things every year.

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Goddard » Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:05 am

I think there's a good reason why the RBs are all ranked so high and this is supposed to be a very deep RB class. But I also do think some of the WRs are being overlooked and I've hardly seen any threads discussing them. Even in weak WR classes, there have been some good ones that people didn't expect. I'm not saying we should move the WRs up and hope we hit on the one that ends up being good, but when we look back at this class in a couple of years and re-rank them, I'd guess there would be a couple of WRs in the top 5.

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby nathanq42 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:02 am

I think based on the level of RBs relative to WRs of this class, everyone's desire for immediate impact rookies, a large amount of 1000 yard WRs in the NFL already, few high level RBs in the NFL already coupled with their sky high prices, it is reasonable for the RBs to be the first 4-6 picks. The rookie draft is basically your only shot to get a top 10 RB without overpaying for them (also considering outside of the top 5 (in the NFL) all of them have their warts and still command crazy prices). I am going RB at 4&7 unless I trade out for a RB I like (Kamara or better, he is my RB6). It is driven by team need, my ability to compete for the title so I need the immediate impact, no WR jumps of the screen for me as a dominant WR1 that can help me win games over the next 2 years (they may develop into studs but I need points now).

I wouldnt say taking sutton/ridley/moore in the top5-7 picks is a bad idea, but for me they dont help me towards my goal ATM, if I was rebuilding I would strongly consider them, especially Sutton/Moore
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Generic Username » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:11 am

I think it's simply a supply vs demand issue, where the supply is both scarce and relatively high in turnover (i.e. shorter lifespan than WR)...that necessitates an inflated price/value

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby mullmania » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:35 am

The biggest factor is that RBs can typically produce early. So you have an idea if you hit on your rookie and don't have to waste a roster spot on someone developing OR drafted an asset that is worth more today than when you took it so you have options.

You draft a Mike Williams or John Ross and you might be burning a roster spot for years waiting to see what happens.

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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby Vcize » Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:56 am

I've said it before but I think people got burned following the 2014 WR class and then took home the wrong lesson from it. Everyone overdrafted WRs after that great 2014 class and the lesson they took home was "don't draft WRs" instead of "don't overreact to one amazing year for a certain position".

And while it's easy to say that there aren't really any WRs that jump off the page at you this year, the 2014 WR class didn't turn out so great because of the guys who jumped off the page at you (Sammy/Evans). The rest of the guys in that class weren't really any more highly thought of than the top few guys from this year.

Phaded is right though, the draft can still change a lot. If SF and/or GB take a receiver early I doubt we're going to end up seeing 5 RBs go in the top 5.
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Re: Are we mistaken in having rookie RBs ranked so high?

Postby AussieMate » Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:15 pm

I agree with alot of what people have said so far but also agree with the OP about last years RB class boosting the value of this years. Same as the 2014 wr class made people think they could hit on any wr in 2015. It'll happen every year, I've got both pick 7-8 in a 2 qb league, I'm excited about landing a top QB (because everyone wants the RBS) and hopefully a dj Moore or potential 2 QBs


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