Sell me on Calvin Ridley

[ajmyk]

you guys he had one good game - albeit a great game - but its still one game! it is not time to anoint him the next Antonio brown

So the discussion shifted to wether he's the next AB or not ! Great improvment.

[Pullo Vision]

Another interesting crypto-bump, a la Arry.

[FantasyDumDum]

Bump.

Here is an argument for Ridley in 2019 and beyond:

1) 2018 Usage
In 2018, Ridley only started 5 games over Sanu. Ridley has 640 snaps, and Sanu 830. Ridley has 92 targets, and Sanu 94.

2) 2018 Stats
In 2018, Ridley had the following stat line - 92 targets, 64 receptions, 821 yards, 12.8 ypr, 10 TDs.

3) 2018 Fantasy
In 2018, Ridley finished as WR19 overall in .5ppr, in the same close range as Golladay, Landry, Cooper. Despite getting 32 less targets than OBJ, he finished only about 15 points and 4 spots behind OBJ on the year.

4) 2019 Changes
Ridley is obviously entering year 2.
Dirk Koetter returns with his high volume, downfield passing oriented offense.
The schedule has the team starting an amazing and unprecedented 13 straight games indoors, where Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley both excel. Ridley put up 6 TDs in his first 3 games played indoors as a rookie last year.

5) 2019 Fantasy
Ridley is expected to be the full time WR2 this year. Let’s say he swaps snap counts with Sanu, and his targets increase proportionally about 25% as well. Very reasonable conjecture. That would give him about 120+ targets, on which a middle of the road projection, even allowing for significant TD regression, would have him at 80+/1000+/10. Those numbers put him squarely on the WR1/WR2 bubble at about WR12+- overall.

6) Future Outlook
The future looks great for his continued progression. Matt Ryan is in his prime, Julio Jones is close to exiting his prime and will look to hand over the WR1 duties to Ridley within the next 2-3 years reasonably. There is no reason to think that Ridley will have any setbacks or reasons to step back in production, even if his TD efficiency doesn’t ever reach the peak that it was at his rookie year, as long as he progresses in target share for the next couple of years he should be expected to at a minimum be a borderline career WR1/2 like Cooks, Diggs, etc.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Ridley will never be a top dog. He needs a Julio type of guy.

Otherwise, I totally approve of your post, as a Calvin truthet who took him at 1.05 last year.

[FantasyDumDum]

Ridley will never be a top dog. He needs a Julio type of guy.

Otherwise, I totally approve of your post, as a Calvin truthet who took him at 1.05 last year.

Yes I can agree he is not a Julio, AJ Green, OBJ type athletic talent that can jump out of the gym in addition to speed and agility. But he is sneaky athletic, and has the elite(or very close to it)speed and agility.

Combined with his elite route running I think the best comp is Diggs.

Diggs combine stats:
6’0” 195
40y 4.46
3cone 7.03
Best Trait - Route running

Ridley combine stats:
6’1” 190
40y 4.43
3cone 6.88
Best Trait - Route running


And Diggs didn’t put up numbers like Ridley’s this year until his 3rd and 4th years in the league, and only did so barely and because of much higher target volume. Ridley is “old” as we know for a rookie/sophomore, but he is still over a year younger than Diggs. Honestly, I think it is pretty clear that Ridley should at a minimum be in the same close tier as Diggs in dynasty and even in redraft, and possibly or probably ranked ahead of him.

[Vcize]

Ridley will never be a top dog. He needs a Julio type of guy.

Why?

[Pac_Eddy]

Ridley will never be a top dog. He needs a Julio type of guy

I don't agree. I see Ridley as a smooth route runner like Marvin Harrison. He doesn't have the size and measurables of Julio, but he can produce.

[ninotoreS]

Ridley's profile is missing a few things that hurt him in terms of being an alpha #1 type in the NFL. Mainly play-strength and contested / combat catch ability.

However, a few dudes with a similar-ish profile to Ridley have succeeeded as alphas despite missing those exact traits. Most recently, TY Hilton comes to mind.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I was doing a little research last year and he profiles really close to Marvin Harrison as a fast skinny older rookie,

[ninotoreS]

Iirc, I have one or two long posts profiling Harrison to Ridley, much earlier in this thead, before the '18 season kicked off.

Dunno if I still like the comparison to the extent I did back then. Harrison got into the NFL and developed decent combat-catch ability (mainly thanks to strong hand-strength). I didn't see improvement by Ridley in that area on his rookie tape.

[Cult of Dionysus]

I just don't see the toughness in him to be the focus of the team. Maybe in this new era of the NFL, but this guy is soft even for new age WR types.

[Vcize]

I just don't see the toughness in him to be the focus of the team. Maybe in this new era of the NFL, but this guy is soft even for new age WR types.

Where is this even coming from? I don't see anything that is particularly "soft" about him. Genuinely curious here, it seems like such a random thing to bring up.

Not that "softness" is necessarily limiting anyway. I remember Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt practically doing QB slides after many of their catches to make sure they didn't get hit.

[ninotoreS]

Where is this even coming from? I don't see anything that is particularly "soft" about him. Genuinely curious here, it seems like such a random thing to bring up.

Ridley has a tendency to drop catchable targets when he's afraid he'll get hit afterward. He's prone to some route redirection, and he's still working on his techniques to defeat press, which will probably have to rely heavily on his feet rather than his hands and strength. And he wasn't strong catching the ball when contacted (which generally aren't officially recorded as drops).

I remember Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt practically doing QB slides after many of their catches to make sure they didn't get hit.

Hey, that's just a business decision.

Isaac and Tory knew how to keep DBs from pushing them off route schedule, though.

[FantasyFreak]

I was wrong on this guy. I think he's sort of capped, but he was a lot more productive than I thought he'd be.

[FantasyFreak]

Ridley will never be a top dog. He needs a Julio type of guy

I don't agree. I see Ridley as a smooth route runner like Marvin Harrison. He doesn't have the size and measurables of Julio, but he can produce.

I think he means that he needs a guy opposite him like Julio to help his production.