Sell me on Calvin Ridley

[FantasyFreak]

That's not how I like to rebuild. The guy may not play again, we really don't know. His best days are behind him production wise, too. My move would be to try and move the 22 first to a team with a bad roster for their 23 first in that situation.

I can understand being skittish because of his age and the questions about his return. But, given he's been playing second fiddle most of his career in questionable offenses, I wouldn't think we've seen his best. As a hypothetical, how similar would his production be to Kupp's if he and Ridley swapped places? There are various teams needing WR help (or a WR1) that he could help, and there'd be a reasonable/good/strong chance to set career highs in production- NE, ARI, Chicago.

In 2019 and 2020, Atlanta has been 3rd and 5th in passing yards per game and about average in points per game. Where is the questions regarding the offenses Ridley has played on in the past? There is plenty of questions for Atlanta's offensive future, but Ridley played on fine offensive teams to pad his offensive stats his past 2 complete seasons.

Thanks, you've done the leg work here. Matt Ryan is fading fast. MAYBE Ridley gets traded, and even then he'll find it hard pressed to be in a better situation than he did for the last few years in terms of volume and offense.

To the bold: I think we've seen his best, in his prime, on a high volume offense with a huge target share, in a dome, with a good QB for FF purposes. I'm not interested in hypotheticals for a rebuild. Ridley left the game of football at 27 years old, and his current team has a QB who isn't the same as he was for the past few years, and we don't know if and when he will return. I'd take a swing on Ridley at 1.12 as a contender, but NOT a rebuilder, because ultimately, it seems like the value is there, but I'm still having to take a guy I don't want on my roster, and having to move him. I have enough confidence in what I can do with that late first via a multitude of difference strategies where I don't feel like I've acquired a hot potato. I don't typically like taking "flip" players at that value. If I'm taking a guy at a 3rd, that I can trade for a 2nd potentially, sure. Not taking the flip strategy with my firsts.

[Patsfan86]

I reached out to the the owner that has Ridley, he did not want the 22 1.12, so instead he sent me Ridley for a 2023 first, instant reject from me. Actually made my blood boil seeing that trade offer. The owner knows im trying to load up on 23 firsts and he sends me an offer for one.

[Pac_Eddy]

I reached out to the the owner that has Ridley, he did not want the 22 1.12, so instead he sent me Ridley for a 2023 first, instant reject from me. Actually made my blood boil seeing that trade offer. The owner knows im trying to load up on 23 firsts and he sends me an offer for one.

Don't get too angry. If I were that Ridley owner, that's what I'd counter too. I wouldn't sell for next year's 1.12.

[dynastyninja]

I reached out to the the owner that has Ridley, he did not want the 22 1.12, so instead he sent me Ridley for a 2023 first, instant reject from me. Actually made my blood boil seeing that trade offer. The owner knows im trying to load up on 23 firsts and he sends me an offer for one.

Should've taken that. Pretty ridiculous in my opinion to be offended by that offer.

[FantasyFreak]

I reached out to the the owner that has Ridley, he did not want the 22 1.12, so instead he sent me Ridley for a 2023 first, instant reject from me. Actually made my blood boil seeing that trade offer. The owner knows im trying to load up on 23 firsts and he sends me an offer for one.

Should've taken that. Pretty ridiculous in my opinion to be offended by that offer.

Yeah, I'd hold the 23 first in a rebuild. Not a chance I'm moving that for Ridley.

[dynastyninja]

I reached out to the the owner that has Ridley, he did not want the 22 1.12, so instead he sent me Ridley for a 2023 first, instant reject from me. Actually made my blood boil seeing that trade offer. The owner knows im trying to load up on 23 firsts and he sends me an offer for one.

Should've taken that. Pretty ridiculous in my opinion to be offended by that offer.

Yeah, I'd hold the 23 first in a rebuild. Not a chance I'm moving that for Ridley.

I meant the other way around. I'd have traded the first for Ridley and don't consider that to be a blood boiling offer.

[FantasyFreak]

Should've taken that. Pretty ridiculous in my opinion to be offended by that offer.

Yeah, I'd hold the 23 first in a rebuild. Not a chance I'm moving that for Ridley.

I meant the other way around. I'd have traded the first for Ridley.

Yeah, I know. I wouldn't move a 23 first for Ridley as a rebuilder. Can't blame the other owner for trying, though, not a bad offer at all, just not a player I'd be looking to acquire in a rebuild.

[Pullo Vision]

I can understand being skittish because of his age and the questions about his return. But, given he's been playing second fiddle most of his career in questionable offenses, I wouldn't think we've seen his best. As a hypothetical, how similar would his production be to Kupp's if he and Ridley swapped places? There are various teams needing WR help (or a WR1) that he could help, and there'd be a reasonable/good/strong chance to set career highs in production- NE, ARI, Chicago.

In 2019 and 2020, Atlanta has been 3rd and 5th in passing yards per game and about average in points per game. Where is the questions regarding the offenses Ridley has played on in the past? There is plenty of questions for Atlanta's offensive future, but Ridley played on fine offensive teams to pad his offensive stats his past 2 complete seasons.

Thanks, you've done the leg work here. Matt Ryan is fading fast. MAYBE Ridley gets traded, and even then he'll find it hard pressed to be in a better situation than he did for the last few years in terms of volume and offense.

To the bold: I think we've seen his best, in his prime, on a high volume offense with a huge target share, in a dome, with a good QB for FF purposes. I'm not interested in hypotheticals for a rebuild. Ridley left the game of football at 27 years old, and his current team has a QB who isn't the same as he was for the past few years, and we don't know if and when he will return. I'd take a swing on Ridley at 1.12 as a contender, but NOT a rebuilder, because ultimately, it seems like the value is there, but I'm still having to take a guy I don't want on my roster, and having to move him. I have enough confidence in what I can do with that late first via a multitude of difference strategies where I don't feel like I've acquired a hot potato. I don't typically like taking "flip" players at that value. If I'm taking a guy at a 3rd, that I can trade for a 2nd potentially, sure. Not taking the flip strategy with my firsts.

Focusing on passing yards actually brings up the problem- Matt Ryan doesn't have good career TD passing records, and poor TD drive conversion has turned Atlanta's kicker into a force.

Matt Ryan passing yards, passing TDs, TD yardage percentage-
2016-4944-38-0.008277 (0.8277%)- MVP and AP Offensive Player of the Year
2017-4095-20-0.004884
2018-4924-35-0.007108
2019-4466-26-0.005280
2020-4581-26-0.005821
2021-3752-19-0.005063

Ryan's career- 59519-366-0.006149

In 2020, Matt Ryan passed for 4581 yards and threw 26 TDs, 12th in TD passes that year. Derek Carr threw one more TD but less yards, 4103 vs 4581.
2020 Ryan TD/yardage ratio- 0.005821
2020 Carr TD/yardage ratio- 0.006580

For their career-
Ryan-59519-366-0.006149
Carr-31514-191-0.006079

Eli Manning matches Ryan's career 366 passing TDs-
Ryan-59519-366-0.006149
Manning-57023-366-0.006418

Ryan vs the league average NFL passing offense-
2019 average-3759.4-24.9-0.0066233
Ryan 2019-4466-26-0.005280
2020 average-3842.4-27.2-0.007078
Ryan 2020-4581-26-0.005821
2021 average-3701.1-24.6-0.006646
Ryan 2021-3752-19-0.005063

As a final comparison, the current TD passing leader-
Brady career-84194-621-0.007375
Ryan career-59519-366-0.006149
Carr career-31514-191-0.006079
Manning career-57023-366-0.006418

Ryan-
-Gobbles up yardage driving his team down the field, strengthening his floor
Converts a lower percentage of pass attempts into TDs, weakening his ceiling (unless EVERYTHING breaks right like his 2016 MVP year)
-Especially this year and last, underperformed against comparable QBs and the league average

Ryan's struggles trickle down. This isn't a question about a player like Julio Jones being "allergic" to the end zone, like what was once suggested. Ryan's combo of passing yards but limited TDs gives his receivers a solid floor but caps their ceilings. In 2 ofthe last 3 years, Atlanta's kickers have been among the league leaders in FG attempts- points scored is a less than ideal test for whether we've seen Ridley's ceiling.

Ridley has been stuck on a team-
-With a QB who racks up yardage but doesn't throw TDs
-As the 2nd weapon or lower in the offense, and this year creates the possibility Pitts will be the #1 next year

Operating in an offense that marches down the field but can't close the deal doesn't encourage optimism we've seen his (statistical/fantasy) best. As a comparison, in Ridley's best year, he put up 1374/9. Another receiver receiver also put up 1374 that year, but racked up 18 TDs.. Ridley had the route running to think he can hit that kind of TD ceiling, in time and in the right situation.

[Patsfan86]

I reached out to the the owner that has Ridley, he did not want the 22 1.12, so instead he sent me Ridley for a 2023 first, instant reject from me. Actually made my blood boil seeing that trade offer. The owner knows im trying to load up on 23 firsts and he sends me an offer for one.

Should've taken that. Pretty ridiculous in my opinion to be offended by that offer.

Under a normal situation its fine, this team owner though has gone down hill with his trade offers and is damaging what once was a good trade relationship, so thats why i reacted this way. For instance we are a 1 qb league, i have Justin Herbert, he sent me Lamar Jackson for a 23 first and 22 2nd, why would i ever consider doing that in a 1 qb league? So ya thats why i reacted the way i did.

[Jfever]

I can understand being skittish because of his age and the questions about his return. But, given he's been playing second fiddle most of his career in questionable offenses, I wouldn't think we've seen his best. As a hypothetical, how similar would his production be to Kupp's if he and Ridley swapped places? There are various teams needing WR help (or a WR1) that he could help, and there'd be a reasonable/good/strong chance to set career highs in production- NE, ARI, Chicago.

In 2019 and 2020, Atlanta has been 3rd and 5th in passing yards per game and about average in points per game. Where is the questions regarding the offenses Ridley has played on in the past? There is plenty of questions for Atlanta's offensive future, but Ridley played on fine offensive teams to pad his offensive stats his past 2 complete seasons.

Thanks, you've done the leg work here. Matt Ryan is fading fast. MAYBE Ridley gets traded, and even then he'll find it hard pressed to be in a better situation than he did for the last few years in terms of volume and offense.

To the bold: I think we've seen his best, in his prime, on a high volume offense with a huge target share, in a dome, with a good QB for FF purposes. I'm not interested in hypotheticals for a rebuild. Ridley left the game of football at 27 years old, and his current team has a QB who isn't the same as he was for the past few years, and we don't know if and when he will return. I'd take a swing on Ridley at 1.12 as a contender, but NOT a rebuilder, because ultimately, it seems like the value is there, but I'm still having to take a guy I don't want on my roster, and having to move him. I have enough confidence in what I can do with that late first via a multitude of difference strategies where I don't feel like I've acquired a hot potato. I don't typically like taking "flip" players at that value. If I'm taking a guy at a 3rd, that I can trade for a 2nd potentially, sure. Not taking the flip strategy with my firsts.

Questionable at best here FF. 1.12 for Ridley is low. Way low to be honest. The opinion that his best days are behind him is a guess at best.

to each their own. I'd be quite the opposite on this one though as - if Ridley plays, his value is a very early 1st in this next draft class.

[FantasyFreak]

In 2019 and 2020, Atlanta has been 3rd and 5th in passing yards per game and about average in points per game. Where is the questions regarding the offenses Ridley has played on in the past? There is plenty of questions for Atlanta's offensive future, but Ridley played on fine offensive teams to pad his offensive stats his past 2 complete seasons.

Thanks, you've done the leg work here. Matt Ryan is fading fast. MAYBE Ridley gets traded, and even then he'll find it hard pressed to be in a better situation than he did for the last few years in terms of volume and offense.

To the bold: I think we've seen his best, in his prime, on a high volume offense with a huge target share, in a dome, with a good QB for FF purposes. I'm not interested in hypotheticals for a rebuild. Ridley left the game of football at 27 years old, and his current team has a QB who isn't the same as he was for the past few years, and we don't know if and when he will return. I'd take a swing on Ridley at 1.12 as a contender, but NOT a rebuilder, because ultimately, it seems like the value is there, but I'm still having to take a guy I don't want on my roster, and having to move him. I have enough confidence in what I can do with that late first via a multitude of difference strategies where I don't feel like I've acquired a hot potato. I don't typically like taking "flip" players at that value. If I'm taking a guy at a 3rd, that I can trade for a 2nd potentially, sure. Not taking the flip strategy with my firsts.

Questionable at best here FF. 1.12 for Ridley is low. Way low to be honest. The opinion that his best days are behind him is a guess at best.

to each their own. I'd be quite the opposite on this one though as - if Ridley plays, his value is a very early 1st in this next draft class.

Yep, to each their own, I'm not buying a WR who I believe has peaked, and has hit the age curve where his value starts to decrease, on a rebuild, with so much uncertainty about his future an IF he will play. I'm not saying the value isn't there, I'm saying it's not a move I am making on a rebuild. There are better strategies I have employed for success, for instance moving the pick for a pick a year out (that will end up being better than 1.12 most likely), and possibly getting something on top.

[dondickenson]

I understand not valuing Ridley as high on a rebuild, but in a vacuum his value is still above the Terry McLaurin zone to me. A bit behind DJ Moore because of his age. Capitalize on the fear of him not returning now and buy low is my opinion. I said it earlier in thread, that he might not end up in quite as good of a situation as 625+- pass volume offense Atl was, and he might not be a 1500+ yard top 3-4 volume WR again(although he could be), but that I fully expect him to be a top 10-15 producer immediately upon return. McLaurin has never been even a top 20 WR in fantasy in any season yet. Ridley is about 9 months older than Terry. So that is why I think Ridley, even in this trough of value for him right now, is worth more than Terry. And is worth at least a solid 1st, imo.

[FantasyFreak]

I understand not valuing Ridley as high on a rebuild, but in a vacuum his value is still above the Terry McLaurin zone to me. A bit behind DJ Moore because of his age. Capitalize on the fear of him not returning now and buy low is my opinion. I said it earlier in thread, that he might not end up in quite as good of a situation as 625+- pass volume offense Atl was, and he might not be a 1500+ yard top 3-4 volume WR again(although he could be), but that I fully expect him to be a top 10-15 producer immediately upon return. McLaurin has never been even a top 20 WR in fantasy in any season yet. Ridley is about 9 months older than Terry. So that is why I think Ridley, even in this trough of value for him right now, is worth more than Terry. And is worth at least a solid 1st, imo.

Personally I'd value McClaurin higher. I know Terry is basically QB proof to produce the numbers he does, and he doesn't have a huge cloud over his future.

[Buckhill Bombers]

I just drafted Ridley with the 6.6 pick in a startup SF PPR dynasty league. Well worth the risk there, as he's been a model citizen off the field, he's not really injured, just between the ear stuff. Sounds like he's had counseling and just wants to start fresh somewhere new. A lot of situations I'd say can be as good or better than Atlanta with a slowly dying Matt Ryan

[Jigga94]

I just drafted Ridley with the 6.6 pick in a startup SF PPR dynasty league. Well worth the risk there, as he's been a model citizen off the field, he's not really injured, just between the ear stuff. Sounds like he's had counseling and just wants to start fresh somewhere new. A lot of situations I'd say can be as good or better than Atlanta with a slowly dying Matt Ryan

I think that's pretty good value, depending on who else was there. I wanted to say that I think I'd rather have one of my players coming back from injury instead of "between the ear stuff" though. Last time I had thay was Andrew Luck