It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

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It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:31 pm

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?
  • Kevin White
    DeVante Parker
    Nelson Agholor
    Breshad Perriman
    Phillip Dorsett
    Corey Coleman
    Will Fuller
    Josh Doctson
    Laquon Treadwell
    Corey Davis
    Mike Williams
    John Ross
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1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

It's very possible I messed up somewhere :shh:

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:12 pm

C.Davis: I’m really high on him, he showed glimpses of what made him the top WR drafted in 2017 and I really expect big things from him in 2018.

N.Agholor: A lot of people were down on him after his rookie season and I was too but he really impressed last season and he’s in a high-powered offense that shouldn’t slow down, any time soon.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:00 am

I don't see it with those names. Maybe Davis, but I worry about his potential in Tennessee.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:21 am

Fantastic post, DD! This is a great topic for discussion.

I'd rank them (likelihood of having multiple 1000-yard seasons) as:

Davis
Fuller
Mike Williams
Coleman
D. Parker
Doctson
Agholor
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby thebeast » Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:09 am

I still like Parker, Coleman, and Davis. While some guys hit right away, Davante Adams provides a nice recent reminder that patience also pays off at times.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Valhalla » Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:23 am

Give me Coleman and Davis I suppose, but I don’t see it happening this year for either one.

Coleman has lost two seasons (chances) with broken hands, which isn’t something that should destroy him like a repeat ACL or torn hamstrings or something. He has a ton of talent, but has been both injured and been playing with poor qbs when healthy. Now he’s competing with target hogs Gordon and Landry, plus Duke and Njoku for targets...so it’s definitely not happening until one of Gordon/Landry moves on. Or maybe the Browns get Beckham and further kill his chances...but I’d speculate Coleman would be one of the pieces sent back to obtain him. I’d speculate that Coleman will be/is being shopped around for draft capital. A draft day trade involving Coleman wouldn’t surprise.

Davis...I do believe is talented enough to do it, but I don’t see Mariota focusing on any one or two targets, or being a huge yardage guy. His game is safe, efficient passes in a risk-averse and balanced offense. Something needs to change the environment...like an OC change...so it could happen.

I suppose another decent bet would be Will Fuller. He’s the right type of athlete in a system that lets the qb let it fly. Why not?

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ericanadian » Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:17 am

Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross

Wow, tough list. I think it would take a miracle for Dorsett or Perriman to turn it around at this point. All either of them seem to have is deep speed in a league which seems to utilize that less and less as time goes on. Treadwell & White have done nothing so far, so it's probably fair to clear them as well. 5%

Next, I'd probably knock Agholor. That offense seems unlikely to produce a 1,000 yard guy out of the slot. They run a lot and spread the ball around even more. I suspect if they expand the passing game at all it will be with the deep ball as they gain confidence in Wentz. 15%

Doctson is probably next off for me. He's struggled a lot in an offense and they went from regular three wide sets to a whole bunch of two TE. I think the PRichardson signing is a shot across the bow for his career and I suspect the team will bring in another WR via the draft. 20%

Corey Coleman is probably next off. We'll see how he responds after being scapegoated for dropping the Browns one shot at a victory in 2017, but his hands are a problem. He's lost the faith of the staff in Cleveland and his best hope is a trade. Even then, I'm not sure he's a a high probability for success. I haven't personally lost faith, but I'm trying to be objective here. 20%

John Ross is probably the next guy to go. I never really understood his fit with Cincinnati and his injury issues are a concern. There is some cause for hope given that he's healthy and has a full offseason to get up to speed. 35%

That leaves my top four, with Mike Williams the weakest link in that group. He seems like the prototypical Rivers receiver, but man he was bad last year. It was a small sample size and he still seems a good fit for the offense, but he'll need to show something in 2017. 35%

Fuller's shown some talent and has a QB who has shown little hestitation in throwing it up there. Not sure that's a good thing for Watson, but it's a good thing for Fuller. I think he'll be hit and miss on a week to week basis, but I think he'll make enough production on plus matchups to be a threat to hit a 1,000 from time to time. 40%

Corey Davis is next here and he disappointed pretty badly last year. I haven't had time to look at his statistics in more depth, so maybe he moves up or down a bit, but he was the strongest going into the class and at least he got himself some playing time. 50%

Parker is my top pick here. He struggled with Cutler, but Cutler seemed square peg in a round hole in that offense and very little seemed to work in the passing game. Prior to that, Parker was efficient at every level except the deep ball and I think more than a little of that lands on Tannehill. With Landry gone, Parker has a good chance to pick up some additional opportunity at several levels and establish himself as the lead receiver in that offense. 65%

The percentages total 300% which gets you to the three guys (mid point of two to four) breaking out.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby henry1jg » Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:35 am

Top tier: likely to have multiple 1k+ yard seasons
- Corey Davis

2nd tier: will have at least one 1k+ yard season in his career:
- Mike Williams
- Devante Parker
- Josh Doctson

- Will Fuller (not as confident)

3rd tier: with some luck and/or a QB or change of scenery can have one 1k+ season, albeit unlikely:
- Corey Coleman
- Laquan Treadwell (lotta big contracts coming up in MIN, take a cheap flier now while you can)
- John Ross
- Nelson Agholar (lotta mouths to feed in Philly)

- Kevin White (some serious luck)

I personally just don't see it with these two:
- Breshad Perriman
- Phillip Dorsett
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Phaded » Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:40 am

If we are defining it as 1k seasons I would guess Will Fuller, Mike Williams & Corey Davis (in that order).

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:52 am

Only 13 WRs reached the 1000 yard mark in 2017. Its been 15 years since we've had a number that low - 2003 had 14 WRs with a 1000 yard season. So a lot is going to depend on

(a) was this a 1 year aberation?

IE will 2018 (and beyond) see a return to the typical 20+ WRs who get 1000 yards

(b) are there too many cooks in the kitchen?

IE are there simply too many talented WRs that QBs have less need to lock onto 1-2 each game?

(c) does the resurgance of RBs, especially RBs with 3 down skill sets have a role

IE will the Barkleys, Gurleys, Bells, DJs of the world steal too many receiving targets that WRs going forward are less likely to reach 1000 yards

However, assuming the Eagles re-sign / extend Agholor, I am 100% confident that he reaches 1000 yards. Dont forget that the Eagles were without Wentz for 3 games. Based on his pace last year, he would have thrown 250-300 more yards than Foles did (750-800 over 3 games rather than the 540 Foles did). So it seems conceivable that either Jeffery or Agholor had a shot at a 1000 yard season (and Agholor had similar yardage totals to Jeffery with 25 less targets) .

Apart from that assuming they can remain healthy enough to fully develop, and earn enough of an opportunity, I would be confident in

Davis
Fuller
Williams

and give a betting chance (50/50) on

Doctson
Treadwell

The rest would have a 5-25% chance depending on all the variables (health, scheme, role, targets, etc).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Jason3123 » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:06 am

Fuller, Davis and Parker will all do it. Bookmark this post.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Hofbrau » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:39 am

I enjoyed this post. Thanks!
I guess Parker and Davis are in the best position to succeed right now, so I'll say those two guys. Seems like the rest of your list needs some things to break right. Maybe Fuller and Mike Williams?

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:22 am

lukkynumber13 wrote: Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:21 am Fantastic post, DD! This is a great topic for discussion.

I'd rank them (likelihood of having multiple 1000-yard seasons) as:

Davis
Fuller
Mike Williams
Coleman
D. Parker
Doctson
Agholor
Agreed, and I really can't argue with this ranking. I'd have it basically the same though I might flip Parker/Doctson as I'm not as high on Parker. But I'm also a big fan of Davis and believe as soon as 2018 he'll start to show why people were so high on him in last year's drafts.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Kaz » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:02 am

ArrylT wrote: Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:52 am Only 13 WRs reached the 1000 yard mark in 2017. Its been 15 years since we've had a number that low - 2003 had 14 WRs with a 1000 yard season. So a lot is going to depend on

(a) was this a 1 year aberation?

IE will 2018 (and beyond) see a return to the typical 20+ WRs who get 1000 yards

(b) are there too many cooks in the kitchen?

IE are there simply too many talented WRs that QBs have less need to lock onto 1-2 each game?

(c) does the resurgance of RBs, especially RBs with 3 down skill sets have a role

IE will the Barkleys, Gurleys, Bells, DJs of the world steal too many receiving targets that WRs going forward are less likely to reach 1000 yards

However, assuming the Eagles re-sign / extend Agholor, I am 100% confident that he reaches 1000 yards. Dont forget that the Eagles were without Wentz for 3 games. Based on his pace last year, he would have thrown 250-300 more yards than Foles did (750-800 over 3 games rather than the 540 Foles did). So it seems conceivable that either Jeffery or Agholor had a shot at a 1000 yard season (and Agholor had similar yardage totals to Jeffery with 25 less targets) .

Apart from that assuming they can remain healthy enough to fully develop, and earn enough of an opportunity, I would be confident in

Davis
Fuller
Williams

and give a betting chance (50/50) on

Doctson
Treadwell

The rest would have a 5-25% chance depending on all the variables (health, scheme, role, targets, etc).
I think the hefty number of QB injuries impacted it more than anything.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby SnidelyWhiplash » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:41 am

Jason3123 wrote: Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:06 am Fuller, Davis and Parker will all do it. Bookmark this post.
These are the 3 I would lean towards as well.
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