It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

[Anteaters]

Guess we'll see soon if the expanded 17 game season will have a large increase in 1000 yard seasons for WRs.

1000 yards is an arbitrary line imo. If you want to standardize you should measure amount of top 24 PPR finishes. So even if the league is throwing for wild amounts of yards or just grinding on the ground it keeps it in context. I’ve found it will also cut out a lot of those “breakouts” that were almost impossible to predict.

++
I agree entirely that this is a better way to judge players y-by-y.

OTOH, it's probably easier to research for this task by using yardage/TD metrics than by a variable like T24 seasons. I'll give the OP a little slack.

[Jigga94]

As I have before, I will chart the progress of the WRs to see who is on pace to make a 1k season or not. The first update will be after Week IV. Then subsequent updates Week VIII, XII & XVI with final results after the season (Week XVIII).

As an fyi

1000 yards divided by 16 games = 62.5 yards / game

1000 yards divided by 17 games = 58.8 yards / game

Updates will include all active 1st round WRs, including 2021, who have not yet reached 2 1000 yard seasons. Ergo no update for Brandin Cooks or DJ Moore.

Spoiler:

A 2014 1st Round WR is currently on pace to reach their 2nd 1000 yard season.

Sammy, Sammy!

[ArrylT]

Guess we'll see soon if the expanded 17 game season will have a large increase in 1000 yard seasons for WRs.

1000 yards is an arbitrary line imo. If you want to standardize you should measure amount of top 24 PPR finishes. So even if the league is throwing for wild amounts of yards or just grinding on the ground it keeps it in context. I’ve found it will also cut out a lot of those “breakouts” that were almost impossible to predict.

++
I agree entirely that this is a better way to judge players y-by-y.

OTOH, it's probably easier to research for this task by using yardage/TD metrics than by a variable like T24 seasons. I'll give the OP a little slack.

Well I am simply continuing the experiment created by the OP. It was Dynasty Delorean that determined, for his research, the 2 1K seasons would be deemed a success. I find it a very interesting exercise to follow.

I can agree that perhaps top 24 finishes may be more useful from a fantasy perspective, but I think that 1000 yards remains a barometer, like 1000 yards rushing or 3000/4000 yards passing, that is still in popular use in NFL circles.

Also it is not necessary to reach 1000 yards receiving to reach a top 12 much less a top 24 finish in ppr formats*. Perhaps 1000 yards is of more value in half ppr or std formats.

I will mull over the idea - I would not mind having a database of how each 1st round WR did - however I would not be surprised if this data is contained somewhere already, whereas the research by DD seems more unique (but that is just my opinion).


* - case in point the follow years

2020 - 2 top 12 WRs without 1K yards
2017 - 1 top 12 WR without 1K yards
2016 - 2 top 12 WRs without 1K yards
2011 - 1 top 12 WR without 1K yards

[ArrylT]

As I have before, I will chart the progress of the WRs to see who is on pace to make a 1k season or not. The first update will be after Week IV. Then subsequent updates Week VIII, XII & XVI with final results after the season (Week XVIII).

As an fyi

1000 yards divided by 16 games = 62.5 yards / game

1000 yards divided by 17 games = 58.8 yards / game

Updates will include all active 1st round WRs, including 2021, who have not yet reached 2 1000 yard seasons. Ergo no update for Brandin Cooks or DJ Moore.

Spoiler:

A 2014 1st Round WR is currently on pace to reach their 2nd 1000 yard season.

Sammy, Sammy!

I was trying not to mention the name just in case of jinxing ...

[Dynasty DeLorean]

As I have before, I will chart the progress of the WRs to see who is on pace to make a 1k season or not. The first update will be after Week IV. Then subsequent updates Week VIII, XII & XVI with final results after the season (Week XVIII).

As an fyi

1000 yards divided by 16 games = 62.5 yards / game

1000 yards divided by 17 games = 58.8 yards / game

Updates will include all active 1st round WRs, including 2021, who have not yet reached 2 1000 yard seasons. Ergo no update for Brandin Cooks or DJ Moore.

Spoiler:

A 2014 1st Round WR is currently on pace to reach their 2nd 1000 yard season.

I use 1k yards for a lot of things and I've been thinking with the 17 game schedule it should still be 1,000 yards but with a min ypg of 62.5. The top 24 someone mentioned doesn't make much sense to me because that can vary year to year. You can do whatever you see fit though. Thanks for doing this.

[ArrylT]

As I have before, I will chart the progress of the WRs to see who is on pace to make a 1k season or not. The first update will be after Week IV. Then subsequent updates Week VIII, XII & XVI with final results after the season (Week XVIII).

As an fyi

1000 yards divided by 16 games = 62.5 yards / game

1000 yards divided by 17 games = 58.8 yards / game

Updates will include all active 1st round WRs, including 2021, who have not yet reached 2 1000 yard seasons. Ergo no update for Brandin Cooks or DJ Moore.

Spoiler:

A 2014 1st Round WR is currently on pace to reach their 2nd 1000 yard season.

I use 1k yards for a lot of things and I've been thinking with the 17 game schedule it should still be 1,000 yards but with a min ypg of 62.5. The top 24 someone mentioned doesn't make much sense to me because that can vary year to year. You can do whatever you see fit though. Thanks for doing this.

Just glad you're ok with my following up this thread - and that is a good idea. I was thinking about how to handle that and I'll make sure to include a * if a WR reaches 1000 yards without a 62.5 yard average.

[alewilliam789]

Guess we'll see soon if the expanded 17 game season will have a large increase in 1000 yard seasons for WRs.

1000 yards is an arbitrary line imo. If you want to standardize you should measure amount of top 24 PPR finishes. So even if the league is throwing for wild amounts of yards or just grinding on the ground it keeps it in context. I’ve found it will also cut out a lot of those “breakouts” that were almost impossible to predict.

++
I agree entirely that this is a better way to judge players y-by-y.

OTOH, it's probably easier to research for this task by using yardage/TD metrics than by a variable like T24 seasons. I'll give the OP a little slack.

Pro Football Reference actually has PPR outcomes for the past 25 years so it makes it easier to compile that data. It’s actually what I’ve done in my own individual model.

[ArrylT]

1000 yards is an arbitrary line imo. If you want to standardize you should measure amount of top 24 PPR finishes. So even if the league is throwing for wild amounts of yards or just grinding on the ground it keeps it in context. I’ve found it will also cut out a lot of those “breakouts” that were almost impossible to predict.

++
I agree entirely that this is a better way to judge players y-by-y.

OTOH, it's probably easier to research for this task by using yardage/TD metrics than by a variable like T24 seasons. I'll give the OP a little slack.

Pro Football Reference actually has PPR outcomes for the past 25 years so it makes it easier to compile that data. It’s actually what I’ve done in my own individual model.

Would you be willing to show me where? I've only found Std fantasy outcomes not ppr.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... mbCe00.htm

Take Cee Dee Lamb - his Pro FR page has him as WR21 with 144 points. In PPR he actually finished as WR24 with 211.7 points.

[Blueboy]

Watkins staying healthy and going for 1,000 yards (on pace for about 1,170 heading into Week 4).

It would just be too perfect if it's only after leaving a pass-first, WR-friendly offence led by Patrick Mahomes, and then going to one of the most run-first teams in modern NFL history, that he puts it together.

[trc]

++
I agree entirely that this is a better way to judge players y-by-y.

OTOH, it's probably easier to research for this task by using yardage/TD metrics than by a variable like T24 seasons. I'll give the OP a little slack.

Pro Football Reference actually has PPR outcomes for the past 25 years so it makes it easier to compile that data. It’s actually what I’ve done in my own individual model.

Would you be willing to show me where? I've only found Std fantasy outcomes not ppr.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... mbCe00.htm

Take Cee Dee Lamb - his Pro FR page has him as WR21 with 144 points. In PPR he actually finished as WR24 with 211.7 points.

The points are not fully at your total - but seems like DraftKings scoring is some sort of PPR
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 0/fantasy/

[ArrylT]

Pro Football Reference actually has PPR outcomes for the past 25 years so it makes it easier to compile that data. It’s actually what I’ve done in my own individual model.

Would you be willing to show me where? I've only found Std fantasy outcomes not ppr.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... mbCe00.htm

Take Cee Dee Lamb - his Pro FR page has him as WR21 with 144 points. In PPR he actually finished as WR24 with 211.7 points.

The points are not fully at your total - but seems like DraftKings scoring is some sort of PPR
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 0/fantasy/

Kewl thanks - yeah at least it is similar - every system will have their own refined scoring but at least it is ppr.

[ArrylT]

1st rounders with 2+ 1k yard seasons

1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4

-----------

2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

2015 - 1 for 6 (Cooper 5x; Parker 1; White, Agholor, Perriman, Dorset 0x)
2016 - 0 for 4 (Fuller, Docston, Coleman, Treadwell all 0x)

2017 - 0 for 3 so far... (Mike Will 1x; Davis, Ross 0x)
2018 - 1 for 2, soon to be 2 for 2... (DJM 2x, Ridley 1x)

2019 - 0 for 2 (Hollywood, Harry)
2020 - 0 for 6 (Jefferson 1x, Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Aiyuk, Reagor)

2021 - 0 for 5 (Chase, Waddle, D. Smith, Toney, Bateman)

----

Players from the 2nd grouping, that have not reached the target will be listed & monitored for 2021. All players from 1st group have retired and/or reached the goal of 2 1000 yard seasons. Players that are active but have not gotten real actual on-field production (Treadwell, Harry, Bateman etc) will not be added unless further use warrants.

Players being monitored:

2013 - Cordarelle Patterson

2014 - Sammy Watkins

2015 - Devante Parker & Nelson Agholor

2016 - Will Fuller

2017 - Mike Williams & Corey Davis

2018 - Calvin Ridley

2019 - Marquise Brown

2020 - Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Reagor

2021 - Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney

[ArrylT]

All stats provided by Pro-Football Reference

subsequent updates Week VIII, XII & XVI with final results after the season (Week XVIII).

Cordarelle Patterson
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
235 Receiving Yards
58.75 yard / game average
16 game pace = 940
17 game pace = 999

Sammy Watkins
Previous 1000 yard Season? Yes (2015)
257 Receiving Yards
64.25 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1028
17 game pace = 1092

Devante Parker
Previous 1000 yard Season? Yes (2019)
242 Receiving Yards
60.5 yard / game average
16 game pace = 968
17 game pace = 1029

Nelson Agholor
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
165 Receiving Yards
41.25 yard / game average
16 game pace = 660
17 game pace = 701

Will Fuller
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
26 Receiving Yards
6.5 yard / game average
13 yard / game average
16 game pace = 104 / 182
17 game pace = 111 / 195

Note: Fuller had 1 game suspension & 1 game inactive due to personal reasons
As such being paced based on full season & active games until better data acquired

Mike Williams
Previous 1000 yard Season? Yes (2019)
306 Receiving Yards
76.5 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1224
17 game pace = 1301

Corey Davis
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
257 Receiving Yards
64.25 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1028
17 game pace = 1092

Calvin Ridley
Previous 1000 yard Season? Yes (2020)
255 Receiving Yards
63.75 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1020
17 game pace = 1084

Marquise Brown
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
326 Receiving Yards
81.5 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1304
17 game pace = 1386

Justin Jefferson
Previous 1000 yard Season? Yes (2020)
338 Receiving Yards
84.5 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1352
17 game pace = 1437

Jerry Jeudy
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
72 Receiving Yards
18 yard / game average
72 yard / game average
16 game pace = 288 / 936
17 game pace = 306 / 1008

Note: Jeudy only played 1 game before going on short term IR
As such being paced based on full season & active games until better data acquired

CeeDee Lamb
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
264 Receiving Yards
66 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1056
17 game pace = 1122

Henry Ruggs
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
297 Receiving Yards
74.25 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1188
17 game pace = 1262

Brandon Aiyuk
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
58 Receiving Yards
14.5 yard / game average
16 game pace = 232
17 game pace = 247

Jalen Reagor
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
116 Receiving Yards
29 yard / game average
16 game pace = 464
17 game pace = 493

Ja'Marr Chase
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
297 Receiving Yards
74.25 yard / game average
16 game pace = 1188
17 game pace = 1262

Jaylen Waddle
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
200 Receiving Yards
50 yard / game pace
16 game pace = 800
17 game pace = 850

DeVonta Smith
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
237 Receiving Yards
59.25 yard / game pace
16 game pace = 948
17 game pace = 1007

Kadarius Toney
Previous 1000 yard Season? No
92 Receiving Yards
23 yard / game average
16 game pace = 368
17 game pace = 391

[ArrylT]

Updated to include MNF results.

[Pullo Vision]

1st rounders with 2+ 1k yard seasons

1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4

Thanks for this! That 2004-2005 timeframe in particular looks like a WR wasteland.