It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:53 pm

thebeast wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:30 am
Jigga94 wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:59 am
thebeast wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:16 pm ^ If you’ve watched him play it’s not fools gold. Josh Gordon was and has been fool’s gold. If Parker stays healthy he is a top 12 WR. By the way, I was the first person in these forums to say Tyreek was the next AB. Book it.
I don't get your argument. Josh Gordon couldn't stay on the field. But had one of the best seasons ever when he did play. Now your argument is Parker was never on the field but now that he had one good season he's a WR1? I don't get it.

5th year breakout on a trash team that was always playing behind with a gunslinger QB on a team with minimal other receiving options. Sounds like the perfect situation to me. Not saying Parker is bad by any means though. They signed him to a decent deal so he should be a part of their plans moving forward. But WR1? Not buying it
It wasn’t really an argument, it was more to say that Gordon was fools gold because it was obvious that he was unfortunately never going to be able to stay in the field despite his talent, and it was just in response to the other poster calling Parker fools gold, not comparing Parker to Gordon.

If you have watched a healthy Parker this year you saw a dominant WR who was beating man coverage week after week and a guy who played to the potential of his predraft scouting reports. This was just first year of really being healthy. I think his future production is tied to his health, which is by no means certain, but his talent is that of a WR1.
My major concern with Devante Parker back in the day was that he did not seem to put in the work to either develop his craft or prep himself for a full season grind. The question was not talent, but rather ability to hone that talent. Like thebeast has said - this is his first year showing that he can, but it was never a question of whether it was possible. Some players just take longer to learn what is needed - and not all of them get the opportunities.

Parker is a great example of why you can keep betting on draft capital because that does give you more opportunities to succeed. Once he has, it seems just as probable he will maintain as it is that he will not. So I would not consider him fools gold - rather a player to keep an eye on and make sure that this is the new norm - the off-season should provide clues to that. That is in part what I think the main takeaway from this thread should be - that history shows us that eventually the odds will reward a certain percentage of the 1st round draft picks with 1k seasons. Parker has now shown he is back on track and it is up to us to pay attention to the signs as to what happens next.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:29 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:59 am
thebeast wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:16 pm ^ If you’ve watched him play it’s not fools gold. Josh Gordon was and has been fool’s gold. If Parker stays healthy he is a top 12 WR. By the way, I was the first person in these forums to say Tyreek was the next AB. Book it.
I don't get your argument. Josh Gordon couldn't stay on the field. But had one of the best seasons ever when he did play. Now your argument is Parker was never on the field but now that he had one good season he's a WR1? I don't get it.

5th year breakout on a trash team that was always playing behind with a gunslinger QB on a team with minimal other receiving options. Sounds like the perfect situation to me. Not saying Parker is bad by any means though. They signed him to a decent deal so he should be a part of their plans moving forward. But WR1? Not buying it
But he said "book it".
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:01 am

Valhalla wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:51 am https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/footb ... -in-rehab/

It's happening! Buckle up everyone! :P
I saw the words rehab in the title and made the assumption it was about Gordon not Coleman. :oops:
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Servo » Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:35 am

Jigga94 wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:59 am 5th year breakout on a trash team that was always playing behind with a gunslinger QB on a team with minimal other receiving options. Sounds like the perfect situation to me.
Insert Breshad Perriman lol

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:31 am

In the years when 6 or more wrs were drafted in the first, only a max of 3 “hit”

Edit. Actually a max of 3 regardless of how many drafted

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:52 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:31 am In the years when 6 or more wrs were drafted in the first, only a max of 3 “hit”

Edit. Actually a max of 3 regardless of how many drafted
In other words 50% - about in line with the same percentage of top half 1st round rookie selections. :)
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:11 pm

Always liked this thread...

1st rounders with 2+ 1k yard seasons

1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

2015 - 1 for 6 (Cooper 5x; Parker 1; White, Agholor, Perriman, Dorset 0x)
2016 - 0 for 4 (Fuller, Docston, Coleman, Treadwell all 0x)
2017 - 0 for 3 so far... (Mike Will 1x; Davis, Ross 0x)

2018 - 1 for 2, soon to be 2 for 2... (DJM 2x, Ridley 1x)
2019 - 0 for 2 (Hollywood, Harry)
2020 - 0 for 6 (Jefferson 1x, Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Aiyuk, Reagor)


Maybe Parker gets another, but I'm not holding my breath. I think Mike Williams could do it, if targeted enough. Davis just missed 1000 (984 in 14 games) this year but is headed to a new team so that's questionable if he ever gets there. Oddly enough, I think Fuller is still the most valuable of this bunch in ADP but is barely ever healthy.

Per the original post, the worst 3 year stretch was 3 for 14 and so far 2015-2017 is 1 for 13... I'd still bet on Mike Will and Davis. Parker wouldn't surprise me either, but we could possibly just have seen a terrible stretch.



The 18 class is solid. I expect many more 1k seasons from them.

19... Maybe Hollywood can get there? Not betting on that happening 2x though.

Still like the 2020 class a lot. Jefferson seems like a lock. Jeudy and Lamb are strong bets for me. Aiyuk seems likely. Reagor and Ruggs have work to do.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:42 am

Thanks for keeping this thread alive and updating the results. :)
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:09 pm

Guess we'll see soon if the expanded 17 game season will have a large increase in 1000 yard seasons for WRs.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Ice » Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:52 pm

ArrylT wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:09 pm Guess we'll see soon if the expanded 17 game season will have a large increase in 1000 yard seasons for WRs.
I would put the Over / Under at 6 more this season.

I would bet the over!
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:02 pm

Yeah I think I would be comfortable taking the over as well. Of course we'll have a better idea once we see how teams handle this expansion. It has been 30 years since the introduction of the bye week, and 40 odd since we had 14 games. So we've been accustomed to a 16 game season for quite some time.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:35 am

As I have before, I will chart the progress of the WRs to see who is on pace to make a 1k season or not. The first update will be after Week IV. Then subsequent updates Week VIII, XII & XVI with final results after the season (Week XVIII).

As an fyi

1000 yards divided by 16 games = 62.5 yards / game

1000 yards divided by 17 games = 58.8 yards / game

Updates will include all active 1st round WRs, including 2021, who have not yet reached 2 1000 yard seasons. Ergo no update for Brandin Cooks or DJ Moore.

Spoiler:

A 2014 1st Round WR is currently on pace to reach their 2nd 1000 yard season.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Anteaters » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:42 am

Great thread!
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby alewilliam789 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:06 am

ArrylT wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:09 pm Guess we'll see soon if the expanded 17 game season will have a large increase in 1000 yard seasons for WRs.
1000 yards is an arbitrary line imo. If you want to standardize you should measure amount of top 24 PPR finishes. So even if the league is throwing for wild amounts of yards or just grinding on the ground it keeps it in context. I’ve found it will also cut out a lot of those “breakouts” that were almost impossible to predict.
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