It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:15 pm

IBall2 wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:42 am
ArrylT wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:48 am
Updating my predictions for the 2019 season & beyond (of getting at least 1 1k season)
Also including 2018 class since no 2018 1st round rookies reached 1000 in 2018.

Corey Davis
75% for 2019
60-70% beyond that barring unforeseen injuries

Why are you downgrading Corey Davis for the future? I would argue he has better odds of reaching 1k years in the future when Mariota is gone or he's on a new team.
I gave a minor downgrade because if he has a disappointing season in 2019 I could foresee any of the following making it more difficult
(a) AJ Brown passes him on the depth chart
(b) Tennessee adds another weapon in the 2020 draft
(c) a new team would likely see him as a secondary option (like Watkins in KC or Moncrief in Pittsburgh) rather than a primary option (like Allen Robinson in Chicago) and he'd still need a landing spot that is favorable.

I think that the fact that I still gave him a 60-70% chance in 2020 and beyond even if nothing happens in 2019 is still pretty favorable.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:07 pm

Aaaaand Ross throws his hat back into the ring

And I know it's silly but the only other time in recent years when only 2 WR's were selected in the 1st round, they both hit (DT and Dez). Things looking up for Brown and Harry? :pray:

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby DLF3000 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:12 pm

And I'll be retracting Davis from my guess. That zero yesterday in an incredibly rare high-scoring Titans game was astoundingly bad, even for truthers. I'm pretty close to having had enough of the ups and brutal downs.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:34 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:07 pm Aaaaand Ross throws his hat back into the ring

And I know it's silly but the only other time in recent years when only 2 WR's were selected in the 1st round, they both hit (DT and Dez). Things looking up for Brown and Harry? :pray:
Yeah I think it would be very interesting if it turns out to be John Ross who breaks this 'curse' on 1st Round WRs failing to reach 1k yard season. I even had to double check to make sure I made a prediction on his odds. :roll: :lol:
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:54 pm

Yardage updates:

Kevin White - 0 (pace of 0)
DeVante Parker - 131 (pace of 700)
Nelson Agholor - 168 (pace of 675)
Breshad Perriman - 16 (pace of 85)
Phillip Dorsett - 187 (pace of 1000)
Corey Coleman - 0 (pace of 0)
Will Fuller - 160 (pace of 850)
Josh Doctson - 0 (pace of 0)
Laquon Treadwell - 0 (pace of 0)
Corey Davis - 82 (pace of 435)
Mike Williams - 157 (pace of 835)
John Ross - 292 (pace of 1550)
Ridley - 175 (pace of 935)
Moore - 217 (pace of 1150)

the pace is not meant to be that serious - just more for fun
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:50 am

Would be funny to see Ross and a guy like Dorsett hit 1000. Wouldn't be able to say they really hit as successful WR (unless they do it more in the future) and not many people started these guys anyway

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ericanadian » Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:48 am

Jigga94 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:50 am Would be funny to see Ross and a guy like Dorsett hit 1000. Wouldn't be able to say they really hit as successful WR (unless they do it more in the future) and not many people started these guys anyway
If Ross, or even Dorsett hit 1,000 yards, that will necessitate them doing it more in the future, no?
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:49 am

ericanadian wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:48 am
Jigga94 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:50 am Would be funny to see Ross and a guy like Dorsett hit 1000. Wouldn't be able to say they really hit as successful WR (unless they do it more in the future) and not many people started these guys anyway
If Ross, or even Dorsett hit 1,000 yards, that will necessitate them doing it more in the future, no?
Lol... Beyond 2019

Not saying Dorsett hits it this year, but my point was that these guys probably won't get as much value added since they have mostly been written off already

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ericanadian » Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:56 am

Jigga94 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:49 am
ericanadian wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:48 am
Jigga94 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:50 am Would be funny to see Ross and a guy like Dorsett hit 1000. Wouldn't be able to say they really hit as successful WR (unless they do it more in the future) and not many people started these guys anyway
If Ross, or even Dorsett hit 1,000 yards, that will necessitate them doing it more in the future, no?
Lol... Beyond 2019

Not saying Dorsett hits it this year, but my point was that these guys probably won't get as much value added since they have mostly been written off already
If John Ross stays healthy for the full year and hits 1,000 yards, I suspect he’ll be considered legit almost immediately with an injury caveat. He’s had a really weird career so far...
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:57 am

I think it points more toward where the NFL is trending as well, where the faster and more agile guys are carving out crucial roles now whereas before, bigger receivers were the prototype.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:04 am

I think it could revive Ross's value much like Boyds was last year. Talking only value as viewed by the consensus I think Dorsetts value would likely be like Kenny Britts - but could be more valuable in deeper leagues. I'll get more into Dorsett for 2019 in my next post.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:06 am

ArrylT wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:54 pm Yardage updates:

Kevin White - 0 (pace of 0)
DeVante Parker - 131 (pace of 700)
Nelson Agholor - 168 (pace of 675)
Breshad Perriman - 16 (pace of 85)
Phillip Dorsett - 187 (pace of 1000)
Corey Coleman - 0 (pace of 0)
Will Fuller - 160 (pace of 850)
Josh Doctson - 0 (pace of 0)
Laquon Treadwell - 0 (pace of 0)
2017
Corey Davis - 82 (pace of 435)
Mike Williams - 157 (pace of 835)
John Ross - 292 (pace of 1550)
2018
Ridley - 175 (pace of 935)
Moore - 217 (pace of 1150)
2019 1sts
Hollywood - 282 (pace of 1504)
Harry - 0

the pace is not meant to be that serious - just more for fun
Added the 2 from 2019 up there... While 2015 and 2016 were an awful stretch (1 of 10 WR "hits" with Cooper as the only one...), 2017-2019 could be a very high % of hits. Brings me back to looking at when there are many WR drafted in the 1st, it seems like most of them bust

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:06 am

Looking back, Dorsett might just be a late bloomer - in so much as it relates to his being an NFL WR - his usage with Patriots has been interesting these past few years.

Last year in a thread where a Dorsett supporter made an argument that he had arrived - I said that for Dorsett to truly be involved (for longer than a couple of games) Brady has to trust him and thats a rapport that can take time to develop. I think that level of rapport may have finally been established enough with his work in last years season & playoffs that he may be a more integral target going forward.

He'll still be pretty boom/bust due to Gordon & Edelman, but if one or both of them end up missing time, I am now more open to the idea that Brady will lock onto Dorsett over a longer stretch than 1-2 games. In summary - if the targets continue (talking 5-7) - Dorsett could be this years Lockett (low volume high efficieny production) - so far he's caught all but 1 ball thrown his way.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:18 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:06 am Looking back, Dorsett might just be a late bloomer - in so much as it relates to his being an NFL WR - his usage with Patriots has been interesting these past few years.

Last year in a thread where a Dorsett supporter made an argument that he had arrived - I said that for Dorsett to truly be involved (for longer than a couple of games) Brady has to trust him and thats a rapport that can take time to develop. I think that level of rapport may have finally been established enough with his work in last years season & playoffs that he may be a more integral target going forward.

He'll still be pretty boom/bust due to Gordon & Edelman, but if one or both of them end up missing time, I am now more open to the idea that Brady will lock onto Dorsett over a longer stretch than 1-2 games. In summary - if the targets continue (talking 5-7) - Dorsett could be this years Lockett (low volume high efficieny production) - so far he's caught all but 1 ball thrown his way.
I added Dorsett and Chark to my dynasty team in a free agent draft, and it turned around my receiving core big time. It added a massive amount of depth to this point, especially after losing Hill. I love what I see from Dorsett, and Brady obviously trusts him. That's huge. I expect pretty consistent wr2 numbers from him in ppr this year.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:10 am

Yardage updates through 4 games now:

Kevin White - 0 (pace of 0)
DeVante Parker - 201 (pace of 800)
Nelson Agholor - 168 (pace of 675)
Breshad Perriman - 16 (pace of 65)
Phillip Dorsett - 197 (pace of 790)
Corey Coleman - 0 (pace of 0)
Will Fuller - 183 (pace of 730)
Josh Doctson - 0 (pace of 0)
Laquon Treadwell - 0 (pace of 0)
Corey Davis - 173 (pace of 690)
Mike Williams - 157 (pace of 625)
John Ross - 328 (pace of 1310)
Ridley - 207 (pace of 825)
Moore - 261 (pace of 1045)
Harry - 0 (pace of 0)
Marquise Brown - 304 (pace of 1220)

see previous update for comment on pace
Next update in a few weeks & will note if players have had bye week
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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