Jerick McKinnon Thread

[joeylitz]

McKinnon owner here. I don’t have much to add to the conversation yet, but I like the lottery ticket I’ve been holding on to and think I’ll hold onto it a bit longer. Went to the Chip the last two years and I think a solid-to-great McKinnon helps me get back to the big game more than a rookie I could get at 1.09 or thereabouts.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I was surprised the Niners didn't take Scarborough late in the 6th round. I guess McKinnon's already overvalued price tag just got a bit more expensive now.

What would you prefer straight up, 1.9 or McKinnon?

McKinnon >>> 1.09
I may prefer McKinnon > 1.02.

[Riffraff]

I was surprised the Niners didn't take Scarborough late in the 6th round. I guess McKinnon's already overvalued price tag just got a bit more expensive now.

What would you prefer straight up, 1.9 or McKinnon?

McKinnon >>> 1.09
I may prefer McKinnon > 1.02.

I understand the gamble of 1.09 vs Shanny daydreams, but...

You might prefer a guy, in 4 years of effort, could not beat out Asiata, an old/injured Peterson that lost out to 2 RBs in NO, an injured LMurray, and couldn't hold off Cook for even 1 preseason.... over a guy (pick one) that is guaranteed starting time and hasn't failed multiple times? Interesting...

[eraldo_coil]

What would you prefer straight up, 1.9 or McKinnon?

McKinnon >>> 1.09
I may prefer McKinnon > 1.02.

I understand the gamble of 1.09 vs Shanny daydreams, but...

You might prefer a guy, in 4 years of effort, could not beat out Asiata, an old/injured Peterson that lost out to 2 RBs in NO, an injured LMurray, and couldn't hold off Cook for even 1 preseason.... over a guy (pick one) that is guaranteed starting time and hasn't failed multiple times? Interesting...

The arguments you're making against McKinnon are, quite frankly, getting tired and have been addressed many many times before. I won't go into here as there are plenty of other threads that offer those reasonable counterarguments, but given the fact that the 49ers didn't take a RB in the draft AT ALL speaks volumes to what McKinnon's role will likely be heading into the season.

There's always a chance the Niners pick up a FA, but none that I think would significantly impact McKinnon's role. I agree with you that 1.02 is a little much, but I don't think i'm taking anything less than 1.04 for McKinnon at this point. Even then, I'd have a hard time pulling the trigger as his role seems more defined since the draft has all shaken out. McKinnon is a solid hold right now.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

[Valhalla]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

I get your point, but, aside from the anomaly years, most years have mid-firsts being spent on 3rd-4th round RBs. Those guys are not guaranteed their role against injury, either...yet they're worth what you define as a premium price (an early to mid-first) as that's what many drafters typically get at those draft slots. So even if McKinnon isn't guaranteed against injury to regain his role, neither is your common mid-1st (in a rookie draft, not NLF mid-first) RB...

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

I get your point, but, aside from the anomaly years, most years have mid-firsts being spent on 3rd-4th round RBs. Those guys are not guaranteed their role against injury, either...yet they're worth what you define as a premium price (an early to mid-first) as that's what many drafters typically get at those draft slots. So even if McKinnon isn't guaranteed against injury to regain his role, neither is your common mid-1st (in a rookie draft, not NLF mid-first) RB...

Yes I mostly agree with that. It would vary with the draft class. By premium pick/mid-1st I would mean... roughly a top 6 pick, again depending on the draft class. This year I count about 6 RB's based on skill, situation and draft capital I would bet on over McKinnon. 1.09 > McKinnon for a contender I completely understand.

[FantasyFreak]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

I get your point, but, aside from the anomaly years, most years have mid-firsts being spent on 3rd-4th round RBs. Those guys are not guaranteed their role against injury, either...yet they're worth what you define as a premium price (an early to mid-first) as that's what many drafters typically get at those draft slots. So even if McKinnon isn't guaranteed against injury to regain his role, neither is your common mid-1st (in a rookie draft, not NLF mid-first) RB...

X2.

[Jfever]

DD, If ya don't mind my asking, who are the 6 running backs from this class that you are betting on over McKinnon? Fwiw, I don't see 3 that I would bet on to outproduce McKinnon in ppr scoring. * All 6 of my leagues are ppr.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

DD, If ya don't mind my asking, who are the 6 running backs from this class that you are betting on over McKinnon? Fwiw, I don't see 3 that I would bet on to outproduce McKinnon in ppr scoring. * All 6 of my leagues are ppr.

Going down the list in no particular order, Barkley, Guice, Rojo, Michel, Penny and Chubb. That's not set in stone, I have barely watched tape on anyone this year so far. But that's a rough estimate just based on the other factors at play. It's not to say I love all those players, but just given the nature of their draft pedigree and situation they will be given a longer leash than McKinnon. Again, it's not who I think will outscore McKinnon this year assuming full health. Trying to decipher who will outscore whom by how much in any individual year is not something I'm particularly interested in doing. It's who will likely have the same or similar opportunity as McKinnon this year as well as next year and beyond if they were to get injured or suffer some other unfortunate fate. In 4 years McKinnon has not proven to be "the guy", and when you're not "the guy" the team will continually try to bring in a guy that can be "the guy." I guess you could say I'm a risk-adverse dynasty player. I wouldn't want to go on that ride if I could get any of the players I just mentioned. That's just how I see it and play dynasty. I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.

[ManhattanProject]

I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.

My new dynasty motto.

[ImaRounder]

I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.

My new dynasty motto.

Maybe the best dynasty quote ever

[_yeti]

In 4 years McKinnon has not proven to be "the guy", and when you're not "the guy" the team will continually try to bring in a guy that can be "the guy."

You mean... what San Francisco did right now with McKinnon? Bringing him in to be "the guy?"

I get you are knocking him for not seizing the role in MN but that is one organization and I held him in the hopes he would be given a bigger role past his rookie contract. Also, it was an organization in flux with a much different offensive philosophy than this new SF team. You're both knocking him but then giving credit to the idea of a team bringing in someone new to be "the guy."

We get it, he isn't 22. If he gets injured year one of being brought in to be the guy it tanks his value. But until then, by your own words, some credence has to be given to someone brought in to be "the guy."

[FantasyFreak]

DD, If ya don't mind my asking, who are the 6 running backs from this class that you are betting on over McKinnon? Fwiw, I don't see 3 that I would bet on to outproduce McKinnon in ppr scoring. * All 6 of my leagues are ppr.

Going down the list in no particular order, Barkley, Guice, Rojo, Michel, Penny and Chubb. That's not set in stone, I have barely watched tape on anyone this year so far. But that's a rough estimate just based on the other factors at play. It's not to say I love all those players, but just given the nature of their draft pedigree and situation they will be given a longer leash than McKinnon. Again, it's not who I think will outscore McKinnon this year assuming full health. Trying to decipher who will outscore whom by how much in any individual year is not something I'm particularly interested in doing. It's who will likely have the same or similar opportunity as McKinnon this year as well as next year and beyond if they were to get injured or suffer some other unfortunate fate. In 4 years McKinnon has not proven to be "the guy", and when you're not "the guy" the team will continually try to bring in a guy that can be "the guy." I guess you could say I'm a risk-adverse dynasty player. I wouldn't want to go on that ride if I could get any of the players I just mentioned. That's just how I see it and play dynasty. I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.

Then stay away from Rojo.

[Cameron Giles]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.